About three months ago, I noted that, before I bought back into the shares, I needed to see a >10% fall in the then c. 265p Tesco (TSCO) share price. We are not there yet, given this morning's 248p price, but what did its Q1 update say about the tricky path ahead?
Lucian Miers wrote here a couple of weeks ago about Fevertree (FEVR) where he remains short. There may be some people laughing at him as the fizzy drinks group fairly promptly served up a trading statement suggesting that it was on track to meet forecasts. But that is looking in the rear-view mirror. What is important is what happens going forward.
Hello Share Toters. This old punter is downsizing. That means selling stuff on eBay. That was very profitable in the lockdowns as ordering by mail boomed. Now far fewer folks are buying my tasty gear. Latest figures on online buying bear me out. According to the Office of National Statistics, retail sales fell by an unexpected 1.4% in March. And February's sales figures were also revised down. Most of this decline being due to online selling.
It might be a couple of days before Good Friday but there is a lot going on in global markets. After all yesterday American consumer price index numbers were at a 41 year high, whilst today’s equivalent numbers in the UK were ‘only’ at a 30 year high. Of course, this is a big worry for many people but - as anyone who has been working for 20 plus years knows very well - you should never ignore the threat of inflation (unless you anticipate negligible economic growth for the rest of the 2020s). And all this chat brings me onto numbers from Tesco (TSCO) this morning which have helped push its shares down 5%…
I am shortly off to Tesco then will be in action as the family cook. Ahead of that I look at Deepverge (DVRG) run by the arse Gerry Brandon, wondering which will come first, the next trading warning or the next bailout placing, at Mirriad (MIRI) where I disagree with comrade Stacey, Amigo (AMGO), Chill Brands (CHLL), Jubilee Metals (JLP), Supply@ME Capital (SYME), Cellular Goods (CBX), oil, gold and Ukraine and finally at Argo Blockchain’s (ARB) latest news.
If you are into corporate updates it is an interesting day today and loads to write about. Here is the exciting news: it is going to be like this for over the next couple of months. It has always been thus over the last twenty-five plus years I have been looking at the U.K. markets. I guess I should start with ASOS (ASC), which may have formally talked about a four month trading update to the end of December, but a second headline it gave, observing that the company ‘announces intended move to London Stock Exchange’s main market’, is kind of interesting too.
Hello Share Makers. Though I’m not sure why folks would regularly shop at Tesco (TSCO) when budget supermarkets can work out cheaper, I rather like the look of the shares. Over the last year, the company’s done rather well and I think the positive trend could continue. The supermarket was already ahead in online sales when the pandemic came along and so was in poll position to take advantage.
A week into January and I see that the weekend press has plenty of stories about the European Central Bank executive who ‘warns green energy push will drive inflation higher’, as well as the UK’s former vaccines minister who said it would be ‘helpful’ to cut the self-isolation period to five days. Otherwise there is the apparent hassle of the wealth of the top 1% is 230 times higher than the poorest 10%. Such analytical excitement (not).
Hello, Share Collectors. Somewhere in the bible, it says ‘All is vanity’. And that’s probably why cosmetics are so popular. An AIM company which does well in the make-up game is Warpaint London (W7L). Interim results for the six months ended 30th June showed tasty growth in sales, profits and cash generation.
I was impressed by a couple of corporate updates today. I wrote about Imperial Brands (IMB) most recently back in May, noting that despite never being a smoker I thought the stock was still a buy. It has hardly romped in recent months – including today – despite what seems to me a pretty good pre-close trading update.
Hello, Share Chasers. There may be glittering prizes around for some folks holding some shares. I refer to the craze among foreign private equity outfits for eyeing up British companies, some of which are household names. A reasonable stratagem then is to buy shares in likely targets. But what are the best bets?
A couple of stories to think about this Sunday. The first has got to be a 252p-a-share offer for Morrisons (MRW) by Fortress with their range of interests including a Canadian pension giant (and which is also owned by the Japanese investment giant SoftBank). So two bits of difference versus the news from a few weeks ago. First, it is not from a US focused private equity interest (with assistance from the ex-Tesco CEO Terry Leahy), and second, it is better than the previous big of 230p-a-share bid.
It has been quite exciting this weekend reading about one of my favourite FTSE 100 plays, even if the index has naturally remained closed (even I am not enough of a saddo to need the markets to open on a Saturday or a Sunday). Last Friday I wrote about Tesco (TSCO) but I also mentioned that ‘if you do want to buy more of a UK food retailer then I would suggest reading my Morrison (MRW) piece from last month HERE‘. Well that looks pretty smart as a story broke yesterday that ‘buyout giant CD&R weighs £5.5 billion takeover of supermarket chain Morrisons’. That does not sound too shabby given its £4.3 billion market cap at Friday’s close.
Back in April I wished Tesco (TSCO) CEO “Newbie Ken” the best of luck over the next year or two ‘but I can understand why there are not a bunch of new shareholders buying hard and pushing the share price sharply up’. Since then the shares have stayed nor far either side of 230p. Is there any need to radically change view after today’s first quarter update?
An “AGM Statement” announcement from cosmetics company Warpaint London (W7L)…and the shares are currently approaching 17% higher on the day at 163.5p. What’s the story?…
I start with the frustrations of a visit to Tesco (TSCO) Wrexham. Piss poor customer service. Then I look at Manolete (MANO) where I smell more trouble ahead. Then I move onto bull market madness and how it will end in tears for my mother-in-law, Elon Musk, Tesla, Bitcoin, Jonathan Bixby, Mike Edwards, NFT Investments, Clarify Pharma, Argo Blockchain (ARB), Novum Securities and Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
A trading update from cosmetics company Warpaint London (W7L) includes that it “is pleased to report that improved trading has continued to be experienced in the first quarter of 2021… sales for the first three months of 2021 are ahead of the same period in 2020”. The shares have responded currently more than 13% higher to 123p, but what’s the detail?…
Two FTSE 100 names of interest published an update this morning. First easyJet (EZJ) which noted that the group headline loss for the 6 months ending a couple of weeks ago is expected to be somewhere between £690-730 million. Naturally that is a lot of money but there were even worse losses feared by some analysts.
Hello, Share Fans. Over most of my long share writing life I’ve cautioned against investing in the big British supermarkets. This is mainly because of the constant price warfare which erodes profits. But the times are a-changing. The pandemic has shown just how vital supermarkets are to general living. Furthermore, we are now going to have far more homeworkers. And that gives workers more opportunity to buy food to cook in their own kitchens rather than eating out or buying from sandwich shops at work.
Reader SB asks if there are any forecasts for MyHealthChecked (MHC). There are not. Not even from the UK’s leading healthcare analyst Mr Brokerman Dan Levi. However, the company does give indications of what sort of sales it might achieve in a corporate presentation video below. There is more and I am not sure what this means and think MyHealthChecked should clarify.
Hello, Share Revellers. With the markets closed today, let’s take the opportunity to reflect on ethical investing. Once a strategy for folks considered to be cranks, the idea is taking an ever stronger position in the mainstream of investing. And I should jolly well think so, too. But what’s the best way of cleaning up our portfolios? First, it must be remembered that one person’s ‘unethical’ share is another trader’s perfectly acceptable choice.
Results day at Tesco (TSCO) and a new chief executive leading the presentation of the numbers. Ken Murphy took over last week from ‘Tesco Dave’, David Lewis, the man who pulled the UK’s largest food retailer back from the brink of an accounting scandal and multiple missteps of direction. Apparently it is ‘Serving shoppers a little better every day’ and that it is able to say this is as ‘Tesco Dave’ did a pretty good job. Today’s update for the six months to the end of August noted that ‘over a million customers more loyal to Tesco…Net switching gains from Aldi for first time in over a decade…(and) Online capacity doubled in five weeks (as Covid-19 hit)’. This is far from shabby at all…
Have you ever used e-retailer The Hut Group? On its website it describes itself as being ‘passionate about leading the growth of prestigious global brands in beauty, nutrition, luxury, and lifestyle’. Clearly I am not its target customer but there are plenty of consumers out there for some of its brands including ESPA, Illamasqua, Myprotein and the online retailer lookfantastic, especially in a pandemic-tinged world which has moved more online. As Debenhams, House of Fraser et al fade, The Hut Group takes their place. And soon it will take their place on the stock market with a listing due next week.
Well the day has almost arrived. Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote here that 'Bizarre news of the day among the larger cap stocks on Wednesday was undoubtedly the announcement that property behemoth Hammerson (HMSO) was buying shopping centre peer Intu (INTU) with a £3 billion+ all share (naturally) offer'. I called this deal 'madness' at the time and fortunately (for Hammerson) it walked away due to the clearly fast-deteriorating structural fundamentals around shopping centres. And now, around thirty months later, Intu notes 'insufficient' talks with creditors so far, so 'the Board is therefore considering the position...this is likely to involve the appointment of administrators'...
Hello, Share Tickers. Tesco (TSCO) has turned in some encouraging news but I still feel uneasy about my bunch of shares. The main reason is prosaic – I continue to be shocked at the difference in the bill size between Tesco and my supermarket of choice, Aldi. Why can’t the home-grown supermarkets compete with the prices at Aldi and Lidl? I sometimes see Tesco and Sainsbury (SBRY) to be rather short of customers whereas Aldi is often buzzing. The sturdier queues in my part of the world at least are noticeable...
Personal confession time: I have never had an online grocery delivery. I know this makes me some antediluvian technophobe but I historically have not really minded popping out to the shops as the physicality of it provides some good research insights. And there is nothing like snaffling a few of those 'yellow sticker' bargains. I am deep down a value investor after all. Lockdown excitements therefore have made me a bit less of a Tesco (TSCO) shopper over recent months. Nevertheless, I have remained loyal to the shares...
Hello, Share Crispers. With the markets closed it give me another chance to cheer up those who take part in our beautiful game. Though I expect you have higher hopes for your portfolio than you had two weeks ago. There’s light in the tunnel. The government health advisors tell us so. As I write, the Footsie is up 3.5% Here are some other reasons why our at least some of our shares could soon rise a lot more than that.
It looks like the cash that I did not realise until a few months ago I had, will finally arrive in my SIPP this week. so where will I invest it? I discuss my outlook for equities in general, what I shall avoid and then Optibiotix (OPTI). R4E (R4E), Imperial Brands (IMB), Centamin (CEY), Tesco (TSCO), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Wishbone Gold (WSBN) Red Rock (RRR) and Fox Marble (FOX).
I look at news that Tesco (TSCO) is upping its dividend while getting a massive tax break from the taxpayer. This is wrong at every level. The Times tries to defend it, no doubt on orders from a powerful corporate PR machine, but this is simply a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich and should not be allowed. I look at Nostra Terra Oil & Gas (NTOG) following up on my earlier piece with more questions for the board and Nomad, Strand Hanson, and another shocking revelation abiout the behaviour of CEO Matt Lofgran. Finally a few words on Concepta (CPT), my share tip of the year where I have averaged down in today's placing.
Full year results time at Tesco (TSCO). Normally it would all be about what it has achieved over the last fifty-two week period and whether things are getting slightly better or slightly worse, but you can guess the challenge of looking at the food retailer as its world rather changed at/around the balance sheet date of 29th February…
Hello, Share Bunnies. Previously, I've opined that supermarkets were among companies likely to see the biggest and fastest increase in share value once the crisis peaks. But one of them, in my humble opinion, might do better than the others. It’s already showing signs of benefitting most from all the extra buying. And it’s not just panic buying either, as people can no longer grab food in the street or visit pricey restaurants...
Picking shares that are worth buying at the moment is a real minefield as the situation with Covid-19 is changing all the time. It would be very easy just to sit here and say ‘sell everything’ and you could probably stick a pin in a list of stocks at the moment to pick a sell recommendation, and the chances are that it would go down, at least in the near time!
Hello, Share Crunchers. Several folks were filmed by BBC news last night trying to hold onto loads and loads of toilet rolls outside supermarkets which held special openings for the infirm and elderly. Why? Are silver shoppers confusing the virus with dysentery? This week I featured in this modest column the attraction of investing in Wm Morrison (MRW). It made a small profit increase even before the panic buying started. I argued that it should do even better now. I would like to extend that optimism to all four big British supermarkets...
I report back on my second round of shopping online at Tesco as we prepare for the Coronavirus here in Wrexham. This is a week after my first panic shop which the Mrs branded as insane and grounds for divorce. But she misjudged our fellow citizens and I did not and so thank heavens I prepared as I did.
This is all to do with my own panic shopping but what it told me about how others are behaving. If folks think that most consumers continue to act as if nothing is wrong, think again. Then I look at Future (FUTR) which i don't believe as it issues a trading statement, round two of beer and popcorn at Iofina (IOF) as the great Brexit bad boy Arron Banks makes his move, French Connection (FCCN) and ValiRx (VAL) botb of which look pretty fecked.
I was a bit busy yesterday with some of my institutional contacts and did not have an opportunity to write any thoughts on the volatility. What is uppermost in my mind is - as I asked on Sunday - where we are in the seven stages of market psychology? Clearly yesterday we saw 'panic' and in some areas 'capitulation'. With the exception of one private investor I am acquainted with, I have yet to see widespread 'I am never coming back to the stock market' thoughts. Let me know if you are bumping into such people (or even thinking this yourself!) Two stories to play minor catch-up on…
Hello, Share Sorters. This aging punter first bought his Tesco (TSCO) shares after reading that Brits spent £1 pound in every £7 of their income in its stores. It is still the biggest retailer in the UK. Too big to fail, I thought. Wrong! Later, the shares fell like a mastodon from a New York skyscraper. I bought them at about 300p and they dropped to half that. But I never cut my losses because I thought that the company would get its act back on its feet one day...
Aside from the continued implosion at the correctly friendless Amigo Holdings (AMGO) which this morning has announced the departure (in 2020) of both the chair and the CEO...the most interesting of today's regulatory disclosures for me has to be Tesco (TSCO) noting that - following weekend press reports - it has 'commenced a review of the strategic options for its businesses in Thailand and Malaysia, including an evaluation of a possible sale of these businesses'…
Hello, Share Creepers. Tesco (TSCO) shares have bounded ahead this year. So I think I might sell my holding now. I was shopping in Morrison (MRW) yesterday - in which I also hold stock - and I found the shopping environment there rather better than my local Tesco branch...
Hello, Share Fans. I don't know why I hang onto my Tesco (TSCO) shares. Maybe it’s because I dumped my Sainsbury (SBRY) stock and want to keep some kind of toehold in British supermarkets. And Tesco seems to be faring well among its British rivals when it comes to holding off the tough foreign competition.
When I last wrote up a set of numbers from Tesco (TSCO), I concluded that '240/250p is a fairer price for Tesco today and I have seen nothing from its results or those from its sector peers to dissuade me from this'. The short view would be this remains fully on track and my core view on the shares remains positive. Today's edging up of the shares (as I write) deeper into the 230s pence zone reflects this and tells me still to be long of the stock...
I noted earlier in the month that Tesco (TSCO) was 'no longer on the ropes and is flexing its muscles'. I think the Sunday press story - which I see the company did not deny but did not offer further comment on - concerning 15,000 job cuts (c. 3% of its workforce) as it reconsiders the future of some fresh food counters and bakeries, is very consistent with this...
Another day, another bout of UK retail Christmas trading updates…
I start with the bad news on the collapse of the fraud case against two Tesco (TSCO) executives. We have got the fight against fraud all wrong. But things will change as the anger generated by a bear market causes calls for dramatic change. Then, starting with the share price of Intu (INTU) I explain why this shows you that there is an almighty B2C bloodbath on the way in 2019 and how you must reshape your shares portfolio accordingly.
Hello, Share Smoochers. A day or two ago, I mentioned three ships in my personal share bag which could come sailing in on Christmas day. Or before. Now let me pick three of my babies which are not my favourites in the hectic Yule run-up…
Hello Share Bashers. Though still holding shares in Tesco (TSCO) and Morrison (MRW), I’d rather I didn’t. Only inertia is keeping these unexciting shares in my bag. Yes, the share prices are generally on the upward march, but progress is oh, so slow.
Well, here we are a month on from my last update and there has been a bit of excitement in my small portfolio of FTSE100 high-yielders which I hope will ride out any market storms ahead. I say excitement – but nothing has changed: ITV made noises about bidding for Endemol and then announced that it wasn’t going to after all. The shares went down, and then recovered on the two bits of news, so I guess the management got the message!
It’s been a busy week in the markets, with a number of big names announcing their latest figures. In this week’s article, we cover broker and tipster reaction to a handful of trading updates that have attracted our attention over the last seven days.
Aside from a couple of brief comments on its new discount offering Jack's, the last time I wrote substantially on Tesco (TSCO) was six months ago - when I concluded that there was another leg in the share price to come, which duly resulted. But the wheels have come off the shares in the last couple of months. I still remain unconvinced by Jack's but in the wider scheme of things in the Tesco empire it is a rounding error. I think the real issue however is that Tesco is now no longer a recovery stock and - as we all know - it is easier to travel than arrive…
So how does it all look for Tesco (TSCO) and ITV (ITV) the morning after the night before? Back on Sunday I highlighted my concern about some upcoming strategy updates from these two FTSE-100 names. So what did they say during their investor updates yesterday...and what am I thinking now?
Sunday morning newspaper perusal highlighted two stories on names I loved up on these pages in months and years past. The first is ITV (ITV) which I have considered as a buy for a while now due to the combination of cheapish metrics and the value of its growing content business as detailed here.
I first warned on shares in InnovaDerma (IDP) in January as they fell towards 230p. Less than two months later it was a profit warning, though the shares are currently bouncing more than 25% higher today, towards 140p – a market cap of circa £20 million, on the back of an “Appointment of CEO and Roots to be ranged in Tesco” announcement…
Time for a food retail update. I was slightly surprised by the purchasing hookup between Tesco (TSCO) and the French-listed behemoth Carrefour which was announced on Monday. You all know how loved-up i have been with Tesco over the last little while and - reciprocating my passion - the shares have popped above 240p big technical resistance level in recent weeks as I had hoped (and mused upon here ). Anyhow, Monday's announcement is no sector ball-breaker but rather part of a search for marginal gains.
What to make of events at Marks & Spencer (MKS) over the last 24 hours? I last wrote on the embattled retailer back in July last year, concluding back then that:
Well I called it. Back in January I told you that opportunity was better than the threats to the Tesco (TSCO) business model and I urged you to buy the stock, which is now trading at the 220p+ level I hoped for in my write-up.
Hello, Share Cats. For many years I’ve held shares in the Morrison (MRW) supermarket empire. I am still about 10% down on my choice. I also hold Tesco (TSCO) and Sainsbury (SBRY), but I save my highest hopes for Morrison. In fact, my Tesco and Sainsbury shares should have been sold years ago.
It was only yesterday on this site that I wrote: 'One of the hardest things for less experienced stock market participants to get their heads around is the expectations game. Numbers can be good (or bad) but if the teenage scribbler analyst, ‘professional’ fund managers and ‘the great unwashed’ in the form of other market participants broadly already think something, then confirmation of this event is not going to really change the share price needle. Of course as a consequence companies then start to try to become clever in managing expectations in order to 'beat' anticipated numbers...but that's for another time'. It is clear that Tesco (TSCO) either did not get the message or the animal spirits of those teenage scribbler analysts got the better of them…
I know I have been loving up Tesco (TSCO) recently, but time today to talk about its Northern heritage industry peer Morrison (MRW) whose Christmas trading statement today observed that:
Tesco (TSCO) shares are little changed today and progress or not over the next few weeks will be highly dependent on the infamous Christmas trading update of early January. I have no great tactical insights on this but I am hopeful it will be part of the strategic improvement and opportunity in the stock I noted a couple of months or so ago HERE. Certainly the share has shown a bit of form recently and this has been driven by improving sales metrics, hopes for the generation of enhanced margin and cashflows, lower debt...and the potential from the Booker (BOK) takeover. It is the latter which is in the news today.
Imagine the scene, if you will, on the trading desks of a professional investment house after Tesco (TSCO) just puckered up its interim results. Another quarter of like-for-like sales growth, free cash flow generation chivving down the debt burden, margin targets for later in the decade reiterated and - stone the crows! - the interim divvy is back. Fingers would be tapping away sending little messages to your favoured clients or internal portfolio managers. You can imagine what is written: “Tesco’s is back!”, one message might read. Another would undoubtedly exhort the reader to buy the stock.
Hello, Share Crackers. It happens nine times out of ten. A company announces much bigger profits in its half term results - and the share price crumbles. But no need for alarm, as the price usually recovers to strike north again within a few days. An enticing buying opportunity then? Which bring me to today’s tip.
I got an email this morning from a man who I shall not name, for obvious reasons. It is heart breaking material. So here is his email and my reply.
Hello Share Crunchers. We have a little saying in our family. ‘There’s always something…’ Meaning, however well things seem to be going, there is invariably a major snag to contend with.
Hello Share Peggers. The latest set of figures from Sainsbury (SBRY) show that sales in the last four months improved by 2.3%. Which is not too bad, considering the huge challenge from the competition these days.
Hello Share Grapplers. It seems that two of the most popular shares being bought and sold by we great band of punters at the mo are Lloyds Group (LLOY) and Tesco (TSCO). I looked at Lloyds yesterday, reckoning it has the making of a good buy because of slow, if unspectacular, progress revealed in its last quarterly figures. I’ll turn to another well-traded share, Tesco, today.
Hello Share Pullers. Sometimes we keep shares due to inertia. There are some less than great performers in my bag which have been there for years and so have the status of being a bit hard to trade. I have this illogical urge to get all my money back first.
My father is being charmed and buttered up by the quacks at Warwick Hospital and I am off there shortly for a pre operation chat. Ahead of that I look at Tesco (TSCO) and its fines today - we really have got white collar crime all wrong in this country. Then I look at Genel (GENL), Tasty (TAST) which is really not very tasty at all, Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) which is is utterly inedible and Sound Energy (SOU) where the issue is valuation. Surely the good news is in the price already?
I found out all about ‘Deferred Prosecution Agreements’ (DPAs) today as supermarket behemoth Tesco (TSCO) said it would spend £235 million to sort out 2014’s accounting scandal…and will not be prosecuted, naturally…
Hello Share Grinders. As I write this, I’m aware that wise Shareprophets commentator Wildrides will be sharpening his pencil to disagree. And I am not at all sure about supermarkets myself - though I still have shares in the big three home-grown ones. Looking at Morrison (MRW), Sainsbury (SBRY) and Tesco (TSCO), I think the last named is the most likely to bring us the most money from our owning the shares.
Hello Share Pingers. For the last few years I’ve poured scorn on investing in most retail chains. This is because of the encroachment of on-line shopping. But I’ve changed my mind. For one thing the big retailers have built up blistering on-line operations of their own. They are putting up a strong front of competition to long-time on-line specialists like ASOS (ASC).
After being outed by Tom Winnifrith as a non-adherent to the Star Wars doctrine, I turn my thoughts to matters in our galaxy (not far away)…and the bevy of trading updates from supermarkets this week.
Hello Shares Casters. Though I’m bullish about UK shares generally, and while I hold quite few shares in Tesco (TSCO), Sainsbury (SBRY) and Morrison (MRW), I am worried about the ability of supermarkets to shine in Shareland in 2017. I suppose of all three stores, I’m most optimistic about Morrisons.
I start with the bust up over marmite and other matters between Tesco (TSCO) and Unilever (ULVR). Naturally the democracy denying liberal establishment bastards at the BBC blame Brexit for sterling's slide and this - I explained here why this was wrong. I explain what this battle is really about. I then look at DiamondCorp (DCP), Iofina (IOF), Goldstone Resources (GRL) and Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP). I end with a look at the AIM awards. I get really angry at this point and when the anarcho capitalist revolution arrives the 2,500 crony capitalists spending £750,000 of YOUR cash tonight merit a meeting with piano wire.
Hello Share Twiddlers. Tesco (TSCO) published its first-half figures this week and the shares rocketed by 12%. That pleased me as I still hold a load of its stock - though I wish I could get round to dumping it. You see, I’m not sure that the leap in share price was justified. Yes, revenues were up, but pre-tax profit was down (including a £200m foreign exchange loss).
Supermarket shares are to be treated cautiously in my view. I say that even though I am a long-term holder of Tesco (TSCO), Sainsbury (SBRY) and Morrisons (MRW). All are currently showing red in my portfolio.
The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has today charged three individuals, Carl Rogberg, 49, Christopher Bush, 50, and John Scouler, 48, with one count of Fraud by Abuse of Position, contrary to section 1 and 4 of the Fraud Act 2006 and one count of False Accounting contrary to s17 Theft Act 1968. These are the first charges brought against folks at Tesco (TSCO) for cooking its books. The timescale is fascinating for those interested in the fate of Rob Terry and the other Quenron fraudsters...
So you think blue chip shares are safe? Hat tip to a Mr N Wray from London for the table below which proves that they are not.had you stuck £5,000 into all the stocks in the FTSE 100 10 years ago in 17 cases you would have lost money in absolute terms. The worst investment would be RBS (RBS) where your initial £5,000 would today be worth £191. Other household names such as Tesco (TSCO), Marks & Sparks (MKS) and Aviva (AV.) were just dogs. As the table below shows even supposedly safe blue chips carry risk.
The June edition of UK Investor Show magazine is now live featuring Sainsbury v Tesco, Brexit or in, Tom Winnifrith vs Darren Atwater, 4 buy share tips and 3 sells to 0p from Tom Winnifrith, Q&A with Alexander Mining and more. You can download your free copy below.
My Tesco series continues as we take a quick look at the Q1 results issued on Thursday, and check the market share trends for signs of stabilisation.
Friday saw confirmation from Tesco (TSCO) of two divestments which were anticipated to be in the works. The first is a proposed sale for cash of £30 million, while the second is the intention to sell (price not yet given). The news signals continued efforts to manage the company’s debt pile and the scale of its ambitions. Let’s take a look.
Hello Share Pickers. You don’t need me to tell you that shopping habits are changing. Yes, the days of going shopping are still with us. The great British public regard it as its number one hobby.
Hello Share Pickers. Whenever I consider tonic water, I always think of, well, you know who. But they're not the only people to make this vital addition to a small gin.
Hello Share Pluckers. I really miss the Woolworths store in my high street. And though it put up the shutters quite a few years back now, I’ve noticed that a lot of Woolworths products still enhance my home.
Hello Share Squirters. About six years ago I bought some shares in Morrisons (MRW). And I immediately regretted it. And that was before all the hoo-ha about Lidl and Aldi taking the customers of the big British supermarkets.
Hello Share Spicers. There is no more important consideration in the grand old art of wheeling and dealing shares than the concept of correct timing. But it’s nigh impossible to pull it off perfectly. I cannot remember one occasion, among the many deals I do per week, that I have ever managed to buy at the very bottom or sell at the pinnacle of share value.
A slightly delayed October edition of UK Investor magazine is now live featuring 4 buy share tips, 3 sells (from TW), company profiles on Universe and Northcote, Amanda van Dyke on why now is the time to buy mining stocks or is Tesco a better recovery play? Darren Winters takes over the normal Rob Terry slot while George Osborne Chases the Dragon as our cover story. You can download your free copy below
Hello Share Shunters. Well, I’m having a terrible week. My new bed from Tesco (TSCO) arrived with a vital part missing. Then the Internet connection to my new home in York failed to work. And then...oh, never mind let’s look at Tesco.
Dear readers…time for another confession. I may have over the last few months enjoyed shopping at my local 99p Store snaffling a bargain or ten (£9.91 worth!) of relatively near-date cereal, biscuits and chocolate not to mention various household goods.
I want to draw your attention to the absurd affect that the trouble in China is having on British shares. One of the biggest fallers has been ITV (ITV). This company makes it money by advertising British companies, like Tesco (TSCO), Sainsbury (SBRY), WM Morrison (WMR) and loads of other very familiar products in the UK.
This morning, the FCA announced it had discontinued its investigation into Quindell (QPP) with “immediate effect”. Quindell’s shares have rallied slightly on the news to settle at 97p, last seen, but how significant is this move for the company’s embattled shareholders?
Hello Share Sloggers. There’s a lot to be said gang for only investing in Footsie giants. Or at least companies which are big, rock solid and constant cash earners.
This morning my money tree worshipping comrade, the druid Getafix, aka Comrade Malcolm Stacey has written comments (HERE) about Tesco which are so completely insane that I have to respond. Quite simply, I can only assume that Malcolm took too much magic potion last night as he appears to be off with the fairies. Malcolm writes about Tesco:
Hello Share Twiddlers. I hold shares in Tesco (TSCO). I have written before on this lip-smacking site in anticipation of a big recovery after disastrous figures. But now I am not so sure.
Well hello again a 225p Tesco (TSCO) share price. Friday’s trading update still has plenty of grim headline news contained within it (-1.3% UK like-for-like sales performance and a general food retail market that is ‘still challenging and volatility is likely to remain a feature of short-term performance’) but Tesco shares had a better day.
Oh dear, poor old Quindell (QPP). Following news of the FCA investigation and additional internal checks on Rob Terry’s accounting fraud, I can reveal that those plan ing a class action have now appointed a top barrister as they prepare to lodge a claim. This is an additional threat to the special dividend this fraudulent company had promised.
It is perhaps just as well that my remit at Shareprophets is largely focused on the technical side, as it can be said for Tesco’s (TSCO) fundamentals that despite Dave”Drastic” Lewis attempts to turn this situation around, it is difficult to see a happy ending here.
I got rid of my Marks and Spencer (MKS) shares a few years ago now. They were among my slowest moving stocks of all time.
It might be a heavy corporate earnings results day around the world but for tomorrow’s business pages the lead story is already obvious following the disclosure earlier by Tesco (TSCO) that it lost a cool £6.4 billion in the last full financial year.
One of the biggest fallacies of this whole investment game is that a sensible individual investor cannot beat the professionals expensively employed in the City of London. As – I guess – a previous member of this latter club let me tell you a little secret: you can…and even in the trading in the largest of large companies out there. Believe me the debate on Tesco (TSCO) on this website was far better than in most ‘professional’ circles.
It is always worth taking a look when there is a big fall in a well-owned FTSE-100 stock. Today’s performance dog is Centrica (CNA) which probably supplies many of you via its British Gas brand with gas and electricity and which has blamed a combination of energy price moves, the weather and utility market competition for a 30% fall in earnings per share in 2014…and most strikingly a 30% fall in the dividend it is going to pay.
I note that I reviewed Tesco (TSCO) shares in January when they had sunk to 180p. It was a fairly full note and most of the argument it included still informs any appraisal of Tesco shares even if they have climbed 32% since then. I took a long term positive view on the shares and see that the market has compressed that long term into a matter weeks.
Last week we learned that the Bulletin Board jihadists had lied to Etihad airlines in order to persuade it not to advertise on this website. It joins Tesco, Waitrose, Hargreaves Lansdown and John Lewis in caving in to the free speech deniers. Speakers at UK Investor Show have also been pressured into pulling out by those who do not support a free press. We will not back down but ask for your support.
You would have thought that a firm of stockbrokers would want to see a critical press exposing fraud on AIM so that its clients do not lose money. But it appears that Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) has given into the Bulletin Board jihadists and has joined other companies such as Tesco in refusing to advertise here. The same folk who have sent me death threats, smeared me and the restaurant because of what I write (fraud exposes) are trying to get this website closed down.
Tesco, Waitrose, John Lewis and Now Etihad Airlines have all asked Google not to carry their ads on ShareProphets as a result of a campaign by Bulletin Board Jihadists who do not like what I have to say.
Hello Share Twisters. I opined a few weeks ago that the best course, given the disastrous fall of oil and mining companies, is to focus on firms which don't sell the black stuff or minerals.
I suggested here some time ago, that the Tesco (TSCO) dividend payout looked vulnerable, so news that the company will not be paying a final dividend is not surprising. Last year to February 28 2014, the company reported £2.8 billion of operating cash, most of which went in to capital expenditure (£2.88 billion) leaving the annual dividend cost uncovered by operating cash. So the decision to cancel the final dividend and reduce annual expenditure to an annual amount of £1 billion by next year looks logical and rational – and thus I would of thought, encouraging to markets and potential investors.
Yesterday 12 journalists were murdered by those who deny free speech. Today on the LSE asylum others who do not believe in free speech are at work. They may not be murderers but they are no less despicable. I start with that matter and Quindell and move on to cover Kenmare, Global Energy Developments, Tern, Igas, Sainsbury and Tesco, Touchstone Gold and Northwest Investment Group.
Christmas is over. On my weekly visit to supermarkets on Saturday both Morrisons (MRW) and Aldi were noticeably less busy. Morrisons in particular- about four weeks ago there were around double the number of shoppers in store. Huddersfield’s ‘nightlife’ was quieter on Saturday too, significantly. Some clubs didn’t even open.
Yes it was all a dream, Rob Terry muttered to himself as he tried to banish thoughts of the ghostly apparition from his mind. He turned over to young Mrs Terry as if seeking confirmation. But she seemed still to be out with her girlfriends clubbing in Southampton. And she was not the only absentee from the marital bed.
It was the night before Christmas and all was still at the Country Club, Rob Terry called home. The great man himself had decided to call it a day early and was lying (as is his wont) on his enormous four poster bed. Young Mrs Terry had said that she was going out with girlfriends To S.Daddy, a new nightclub in Southampton and so Rob’s only companions were his two faithful poodles Canakos and Cencord who lay snoring at the foot of his bed.
Sainsbury’s (SBRY) is more upmarket than any of the other ‘Big Four’ supermarkets, Asda, Tesco (TSCO) and Morrisons (MRW). It leaves German upstarts Aldi and Lidl in the dust in terms of the range of products. And if you’re into ‘Fair Trade’ bananas... well it’s the place to go!
Hello Share Babes. I don't know what I would have done without Tesco (TSCO) this Christmas. Well, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration. But it certainly beat most firms I've dealt with so far this Yuletide for super service.
I shopped in Aldi today and it was packed! Arrived just after 8am and there were already plenty of people already shopping there. Probably there was a queue of people, waiting in the cold at the door before it opened. Arrived in Morrisons (MRW) a bit earlier, as it had extended its opening hours due to ‘Christmas’ which I’m convinced more and more is just a way to get people to spend more money, and there were relatively few people.
Whilst part 1 was a romp through a few larger cap stories with cost cutting as a core theme, part 2 is a bit more edgy. Looking at 2015 it seems to me that there are two themes that really make investors nervous. The first is growth and the second is underperformance.
Hello Share Freaks. One of the jolly benefits of the Santa Rally is that it provides a bit of excitement when real corporate activity is in a down period.
I knew it was going to be bad news when I saw an unexpected Tesco (TSCO) trading update statement on the wires this morning. This close to Christmas if you are a food retailer you keep your fingers crossed that the shoppers are going to eventually flood into your store unless – of course – the news was really, really different from guidance. I guess the £1.4 billion trading profit indication qualifies on that behalf (I believe consensus UK trading profit guidance was nearer £1.8 billion).
Hello Share Shunters. I'm doing my Christmas cards. This is no quick task as I like to put news letters in each one. And none of these poxy Round Robins for everyone, either
Hello Share Rockers. It's only 24 days to go now, gang. And we are now seeing, at last, the fabled Santa Rally. Will it keep on going? You bet it will. The Footsie will probably not slow down until the New Year, except for the odd mini correction for the sake of good taste.
Hello Share Shooters. When I said we might have another go at Tesco (TSCO) recently, there was a volley of opposition among the comments which followed. Hardly anybody agreed that it was worth giving the supermarket giant another chance.
Who remembers back to the IPO frenzy of earlier this year? A time when almost anything seemed possible and, if it was in a reasonable state of readiness, was floated by those oh-so-helpful investment banks. I was reminded of two names earlier today due to the publication of their results. Zoopla (ZPLA) is the group behind a number of property websites whilst AO World (AO.) apparently is ‘on a mission to become a leading European online retailer of electrical products’ (as per its corporate website). Both were floated earlier this year and both are nicely below their initial list price.
I’m sorry it’s been a while that I’ve written. I have been doing lots of other things, mainly to get more money to invest in shares, but I still should have written more. I’ve been doing lots of ‘active research’ including travelling to shareholders meeting and more ‘in depth’ personal research into companies that I own, but that’s still no excuse. I’ve kind of had a bit of ‘writers block’ but there’s something interesting on my mind now which hopefully I can express.
Hello Share Crunchers. Well, the Santa Rally – where shares pound ahead at Christmas time – has trundled away to a rather slow start. In fact, when tradition dictated that stocks would gallop ahead around Guy Fawkes night, the Footsie decided to be a damp squib.
Hello Share Folk. Did you see the blockbuster programme on the telly this week that showed the wealthy getting richer and the poor not so?
The share price of Sainsbury’s (SBRY) has shot up today. The stock has risen 6.4% to reach 263.2p. It’s a personal relief to me- my first article on this site was on Sainsbury’s and I have invested quite a bit of money in the shares. It’s interesting to note that despite this rise the PE is still 6.56 and the yield is 6.56% too. The share is trading at around or even below its net asset value.
The Tesco (TSCO interim results have proved to be such a large dog’s breakfast of awfulness, that it is hard to know where to begin in attempting to describe and understand the situation.
When you make a mistake the right thing to do is either fall on your sword and/or beg for forgiveness. Of course you can try and brazen it out too but I am glad that the Tesco (TSCO) Chairman has maintained a shred of dignity by expressing ‘profound regret’ at the accounting debacle that has enveloped the UK food business of the FTSE 100’s most struggling retailer. Clearing the senior executive and non-executive deck clear looks a radical move but it is the only way to move on.
Moody’s, the famous credit rating agency, predicts that Asda, Tesco (TSCO), Morrisons (MRW) and Sainsbury’s (SBRY) will continue to lose market share to the discounters Aldi and Lidl. The discounters’ share of the market currently stands at 8.3% and could reach 10% in a couple of years. Moody’s is basically predicting that the British market will become more like the European grocery sector, where margins are around 3 to 4% instead of the 5% that they used to be in Britain.
After four weeks of stockmarket falls is it time to buy shares? Yes and No. In his video postcard this week Tom Winnifrith looks at earnings visibility, value investing, long term investing, Tesco (TSCO) and stocks to avoid. The Q word is not mentioned once!
For quite a while, I believe that Morrisons (MRW) has lagged behind the competition in the supermarket sector. It’s been years behind Asda, Sainsbury’s (SBRY) and Tesco (TSCO) in terms of online shopping.
Hello Share Casters. Tesco (TSCO) shares are under a cloud at the mo having toppled miserably on some questions about their figures. Even before that, the shares had fallen a long way, due to some not very successful operations abroad and a nasty supermarket price war here.
There was a reference somewhere to good news about Compass (CPG) the international food and hospitality services company. But search as a might, like a French hog nosing out truffles I could not locate the good news.
I should have thought of the phrase myself but Christine Lagarde’s observation that the clear risk for the global economy is of an extended ‘new mediocre’ era fits with many of my observations about the world. Investment life, however, is not about extended pessimism and the most important observation has to be that it will mean individual investment opportunities – namely stock picking – become more important. Starting with the UK:
In certain circumstances share buybacks make sense. Where a company has surplus capital and cannot think of a way of earning an economic return on that capital it is absolutely right that it is returned to shareholders via buybacks. I prefer them to special dividends because one can elect to sell less or no stock or to stay on board with a bigger percentage of the equity. It is down to the individual investor. And it is right that surplus capital should be returned to the company’s owners (shareholders) not simply be hoarded by management.
I am afraid that my lead hit a dead end so there is no nuclear hand grenade for Quindell (QPP). Yet. However ….
Peter Lynch makes an obvious but interesting point about the PE ratio of shares in his classic One Up on Wall Street. “If you buy back shares in a company selling at two times earnings (a p/e of 2), you will earn back your initial investment in two years, but in a company selling at 40 times earnings (a p/e of 40) it would take forty years to accomplish the same thing. Cher might be a great-grandmother by then. With all the low p/e opportunities around, why would anybody buy a stock with a high p/e?”
It is always the way with corporate scandals, the bad news just keeps bon coming. And so the weekend press makes dire reading for Tesco (TSCO). Prior year accounts may be restated, the Serious Fraud Office is bound to be involved and the useless non-exec chairman looks a worse bet to make it into the New Year than your average factory armed turkey. So what’s your take n Tesco shares. Do you think:
So the share prices of both Tesco (TSCO) and Sainsbury’s (SBRY) have been massacred lately. There are genuine reasons for Tesco being destroyed, such as its reason to slash the dividend by 75% and its ‘overstating’ of profits by £250 million. You could call that latter point fraud.
I am indebted to reader DiscoStu for pointing out data from the LSE website showing what other stocks are held by investors in some of the companies I am less than kind about. It is sort of a Bulletin Board Moron nightmare portfolio. Why are these fools so attracted to POS stocks?
Both companies have engaged in aggressive accounting with regard to accruals. One has already been shown to have overstated profits, managers have been fired, the forensic accountants are in and the Serious Fraud Office is now said to be looking into the matter. The other is Quindell (QPP).
My father originally advised me that Sainsbury’s (SBRY) was a good buy at 315p. “In the long term they’re good value at this price.” I did my own research, saw that the PE was low and the yield attractive. I didn’t have any shares in the supermarket sector and never had, so it was good from a ‘diversity’ view I guess. I bought the share.
As any bull market gets out of hand the aggressive accounting practices start to emerge. Managers on bonuses do whatever they feel able to get away with to deliver the sales and profits needed to justify crazy ratings. Tesco has done the right thing in suspending managers, coming clean and calling in auditors for a full forensic. The question I poser to you is who is next?
News that Tesco (TSCO) had overstated its profits, prompting a near 12% collapse in the share price was good reason to caste the valuation measure over the shares at 203p. – last seen. I learnt from my A level English literature that the essence of tragedy – the real Greek kind – is to fall from a great height. That makes Tesco and its shares a real Greek tragedy!
So I’m looking at my Sainsbury’s shares now, feeling quite sad. They’re currently trading at 275.1p. I first bought my original batch at 315p. I think it’s important for share investors to be as honest about their losses as their gains.
As I am currently on the east coast of the United States it was an especially early ‘silly o’clock’ awakening this morning. It was not the greatest start to the week however with Tesco (TSCO) unveiling the latest in a line of difficult market updates. Here’s the crux of what it had to say:
Hello Share Pickers. Might I have your permission to be really heavy – and talk about some serious philosophical arguments which have a bearing on your shares.
It would be fair to say an interim results statement from Morrisons (MRW) that reiterated their profit range and debt reduction hopes for the current financial year was not a consensus view amongst the (to quote a Chancellor of the Exchequer of yesteryear) ‘teenage scribblers’ that populate the professional analytical ranks of the City’s investment firms. Still, sentiment towards the company feels as low as it was when I first wrote on the stock a couple of months ago. The shares are certainly still kicking around the 170s.
They say profits warnings come in Threes so is Tesco (TSCO) not a sell now? Chris Bailey reckons that it is a bargain basement buy and has made it the largest holding in his pension as you can see HERE. Clearly there are two points of view.
So supermarkets have been in the news a lot lately, with Tesco (TSCO) slashing its dividend by 75%. All of the supermarket shares took a battering on Friday, with worries that Tesco’s rivals could also cut their dividends. Just on an instinctive feel, I don’t think Sainsbury (SBRY) will cut its but I do feel it may be effected when Tesco start to cut prices- it will probably have to follow suit to an extent.
Last business day of the month. Last day of a departing CEO’s corporate reign. Last chance to ‘kitchen sink’ the corporate earnings guidance numbers in the UK’s largest food retailer? A share price back to the level of a decade ago and a 75% cut in the interim dividend does not make pretty headlines.
Shares in J Sainsbury (SBRY) are currently trading on a PE of 9.6 and a yield of 5.8%. You can buy Sainsbury's as both a value play and a long term buy and hold share. This article examines the strengths of Sainsbury's brand as well as the value investment case.
Hello Share Pickers: Aggreko (AGK) has been a great share for me. But that was a few years ago. When the share price started to decay after a long healthy bull run, I dumped 'em. There is no loyalty in this black heart. Your best share in the whole wide world should be dropped when things start to go wrong. And they nearly always do, eventually.
The news that Alan Stewart was to depart Marks & Spencer (MKS) as it Finance Director saw the next day’s M&S share price increase a little. In the case of Tesco (TSCO) the price was down 1%. Stewart has a tough job to do at Tesco but as one might imagine, logically - and from his new Tesco pay packet - that he is up to the job.
Two days ago I gave my opinion on Marks & Spencer (MKS) shares. Today its Finance Director announced that he is off to Tesco (TSCO). This is an understandable move for the man in question, Alan Stewart, and for Tesco where ‘every little helps’. Although, judging by Mr Stewart’s hefty salary increase to £750,000, plus a ‘golden hello’ worth a reported £1.73 million, his contribution is expected to be more than a little.
Gary Carp returns with a superb analysis of Tesco's future.
It wasn’t meant to be like this. When Philip Clarke took over as Tesco boss, no one anticipated the pace of structural shift in shopper behaviours that is destabilising retail. Tesco was the most convenient and ambitious UK retailer; it was and still is number one. So why does it feel so dire? The harsh reality is almost every reason underpinning Tesco's last twenty years of success has been turned upside down and inside out. It is hard to see any light at the end of Tesco's tunnel.
Last month, I gave my reasons why I thought Sainsbury’s equity was attractive at the then share price of 340p. I described the company as “impressive fundamental value in a sea of intense competition”. In essence, that was based on an estimated prospective dividend yield of 4.8%, backed by a strong balance sheet net asset value of an estimated 317p a share. The share price continued a slide down to about 326p before bouncing; last seen, Sainsbury shares were back up to 337p almost back to where we came in about a month ago.
Hello Share Persons. Stay away from supermarkets. I don't mean you should stop eating. But think long and hard before buying shares in them.