Tom Winnifrith writes: In 2016 the polls, the entire media class and the betting markets predicted that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. On election day we were assured that crooked Hillary had a 92% chance of winning and the fake news folks round at the BBC were preparing for the victory party. I studied US politics at Oxford and, having lived in America, have always been fascinated by the subject and my detailed state by state analysis led me to predict, from some weeks out, that Trump would win. So what of 2020 – voting is on Tuesday…
In a recent MoneyWeek article, entitled “Bargain Britain”, its writer Max King asserts:
Back in April, I mused about how the spirits behemoth Diageo (DGE) was a great insight into the broader markets. Interestingly, the share price today is within one percent of where it was when I wrote about the company more than five months ago – which tells you just how much we have been treading water at multiple levels over that period. Anyhow, the above observation includes factoring in a 5% odd share price bump today. So what did the owner of the Johnnie Walker, Bell’s, Smirnoff, Bailey’s and Gordon’s brands among many others say today in a pre-AGM trading commentary to induce such a reaction? And what can be discerned about the wider view of the world?…
Sorry to the in-house Euro loon Jonathan Price who reckons that my interest in the US election is excessive but two new polls yesterday cast further light on the races in Pennsylvania and Florida which
as I noted yesterday are two of the three states that will decide the election. I discuss this and then Justin Urquhart Stewart on gold where he gets his numbers so wrong that I am more bullish than I was as I think this tells you something of wider import. Finally onto my good mate the Sith Lord Zak Mir, a chap called Carl Linton who is a plumber and heating engineer, and the current mood of market craziness.
My new video show is live and if you have a spare three hours, it is, if I say so myself, a total belter and can be watched HERE. I then discuss the US election and am ready to call all bar three states: Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. I believe that the maths are that Trump will have to win all three to win. There are three others I am calling but with a low degree of certainty (Ohio for Trump, Wisconsin and Minnesota for Biden). I discuss what will swing the three uberswing states and where things stand now but also what financial betting markets tell us. Then trolling of me by morons, this time owning Supply@ME Capital (SYME), hits a new low. I discuss these sad creatures and how they motivate me to dig even more.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new, I hope, weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Richard Poulden on gold and where it goes next, on the US election but also on Wishbone Gold (WSBN) as it takes a new direction. As a long suffering shareholder, down £30,000, I have a few tough questions. Then I discuss what gold stocks I am buying before chatting to Steve Moore, a man with whom I have worked for all bar a few weeks of his working life. He is this year 38! Frightening. I started the show with a suggestion that we all look back to the 1970s. I end with a look at corporate lying and why it is on the rise and why no-one cares but that will change. Verditek (VDTK) is a case study here. You can access the show HERE
Previously writing on digital technology company Mirada (MIRA) I concluded that the track record saw me continue to avoid with the shares at 4.25p. I now update with the shares, on the back of a “Trading Update” announcement, currently 33% lower today, at 2.75p...
I start with the US Election. My last piece on why the polls are wrong and on who will win is HERE. Talking of a rigged affair I move onto Cloudtag (CTAG) and then to Redcentric (RCN) and MXC Capital (MCXP). Then I look at Premier Oil (PMO), Mkango (MKA), Golden Saint (GSR) and Servision (SEV) before ending with a chant for The Donald.
Governments have a tiger by the tail, and as debt continues to soar around the world that tiger will grow more and more frenzied, whatever the US election outcome. Eventually it will turn around and eat those who presumed they had it under control. a debt-driven crisis of epic proportions becomes more likely with every passing day And when the bust comes, panicked capital will behave the way it did in 2009, pouring into assets like gold that can’t be created in infinite quantities by out-of-control governments and eager to please central bankers.