I trained as an oil analyst 27 years ago and have been writing about the sector ever since. Those morons who thought they knew better, as they filled their boots with Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite (XEL), Magnolia (MAGP), Andalas (ADL) and UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) always thought they had greater sector experise and on twitter came up with devestating responses to my hard analysis. Meet utter fucktard Donato Perretta, a UK Oil & Gas owning moron.
Happy Christmas One and all. This podcast follows on from A-E HERE, F-J HERE, K-O HERE and P to T HERE. Okay I cheat a bit here but with these letters it is tough but, inter alia, I cover: the USM, Uramin - my old pal Jim Mellon's company, United Cacao (CHOC), Worthington (WRN), the three Ex's , Xcite Energy (XEL), Xtract Resources (CTR), Yolo Leisure (YOLO), Zeus Capital and the late lamented Gable (GAH)
I see that Avocet Mining (AVM) which I warned in May and August this year imploded the other day as it admitted that insolvency could be looming. If, like Xcite (XEL), about which I wrote the other day, it does enter administration, the shares are still a compelling sell. This, I believe is by far the most likely outcome and I stay short. The company's words in the recent statement are explicit:
I am even more angry than I was on Monday. Those who have caused this are in no particular order: Reach4Entertainment (R4E), my selfish and lazy ex wife, Roger Lawson, Wishbone Gold (WSBN), Belfort Securities and whoever is responsible for the League Cup quarter final draw, I also cover in detail Avocet Mining (AVM), IGAS, Magnolia Petroloeum (MAGP) and XCite Energy (XEL)
At time of writing bondholders in AIM-listed over-indebted Igas Energy (IGAS) are meeting in Oslo, having been summoned by the company to consider proposals to waive certain bond covenants while a restructuring of the company’s capital is negotiated. Igas previously indicated that a bond covenant breach was anticipated to occur this very week. Will the bondholders play ball?
This is getting to be the most used phrase on ShareProphets: you can’t say you were not warned…..And so today it is the turn of AIM-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) to get the told-you-so treatment, for this afternoon the shares were suspended and the company announced that its bondholders have walked on restructuring discussions with the company and are to instruct the bond trustee to petition for the appointment of a liquidator. In other words, short of a last-ditch effort to patch up a new deal it looks to be light out time. Shareholders are set to lose everything.
I have had rather a soft spot for the management of Xcite Energy (XEL) ever since it responded to a rise in its share price by effectively warning over exuberant retail punters that its shares were close to worthless.
It is red faces for Sir Richard Branson and for uber pious Richard Reed of Innocent as app firm Sup goes bust but the whole story is just so hilarious, a message on the stupidity of man and his inability to learn from his errors you will wet yourselves. The nature of the demise of this company is the highlight of my week and it will be yours too. Elsewhere I look at Telit Communications (TCM), Ambrian (AMBR), Aureus Energy (AUE) - I await your apologetic update Jo Hart - XCite (XEL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP).
Well you cannot say that you were not warned. Another day and another former darling of the Bulletin Boards goes up in smoke. XCite Energy (XEL) has given us details of its restructuring. Ouch.
Happy birthday Lucian, it looks as if my son is hanging on to avoid joint parties in the future. Theresa May has a new idea on tackling fraud. Suffice to say what she proposes will damage industry and Britain PLC. I have another suggestion - enforce existing rules. Mrs May fails to understand the psyche of most fraudsters but also how useless the fraud busting agencies of the state are. I then move onto bad news for my good friend Jim Mellon at his latest AIM Disaster, Billing Services (BILL), then I cover XCite Energy (XEL) and read throughs at IGAS and Iofina (IOF). 88 Energy (88E), China fraud Zibao (ZBO) and the smelly business at Feedback (FDBK)
We warned you often enough. When companies have no revenue, are burning cash, have no cash and are drowning in debt, things are not going to end well for shareholders. On the back of an RNS today, mug punters have taken such an almighty rogering that I hear that in Bulletin Board Moron land the shops have already run out of vaseline. So here is a ShareProphets translation service of that RNS (our words in bold).
In a while I must go asremble a cot. It won't be like a cot of old but is bound to have 85 parts, six types of screw, an Allan Key and instructions designed for a Nobel Prize winner. It is like a heroic task from Greek mythology and I expect to be in a bad mood soon. So for that reason and one other I record early. On the agenda: Cloudtag (CTAG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Pantheon Resources (PANR), 88 Energy (88E), Vipera (VIP), XCite Energy (XEL) and Strat Aero (AERO) and only en passant the fraudsters at African Potash (AFPO). This podcast is long and detailed.
When we talk to folk in the industry, about our plans to steam the Pilot, Elke & Narwhal fields in the middle of the Central North Sea, sometimes we get a pretty sceptical reaction, sometimes we don’t.
Or should I say, might eat their company. To say that the company has been eaten would involve making a prediction about the future and I steadfastly refuse to make predictions about what another company might do and what might happen to their share price. So this is all just analysis of what has already happened and what has already happened is that the debt monster has nearly eaten Xcite, or more precisely, Xcite's shareholders.
Great news - may father is back home from hospital so I head back up to Warwickshire in a couple of days. Thereafter between him and the Mrs entering the final month it will be less of me, Steve Moore is in charge. Bash him if anything goes wrong. In today's podcast I look at City of London (CIN), IGAS (IGAS), XCite Energy (XEL), Wishbone Gold (WSBN), Nyota (NYO) and West African Minerals (WAFM).
Firstly I have a problem with my box set of "The Omen" and ask for your help. I then discuss in light of today's three legal scoops with documents falling into my paws ( Strat Aero - HERE, Iofina - HERE and Golden Saint Resources - HERE) the 3Xs who help investigative journalists do their job and my encounters with all three on Quindell and other cases. At a company level I look at: Card factory (CARD), Iofina (IOF), Noricum Gold (NMG), Avanti Communications (AVN) and xCite Energy (XEL) and i also discuss why Cloudtag (CTAG) shareholders are like a swarm of wasps and what that means.
This is my fifth attempt to record a bearcast. I am plagued by idle thieving scousers and that included Doc Holiday today and by a delivery man - is that the Omen Box set or something the Mrs has ordered? I discuss the poisonous legacy of debt Mark Carney leaves everywhere then Nyota (NYO), Trafalgar New Homes (TRAF), Billing Services (BILL) - tough luck my old pal Jim Mellon another debacle - Strat Aero (AER) and XCite Energy (XEL) and than a useless factoid on "The Omen."
I start with the bad news for whoever owns Fred Olsen. I think look at Octagonal (OCT), Blur (BLUR), much ramped Keras Resources (KRS), XCite Energy (XEL), Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP), 88 Energy (88E), Highlands Natural Resources (HNR), Sareum (SAR) and then a joke IPO called Widecells (WDC), which listed yesterday and is now the subject of a ramp. Feel the stem cells. No actually don't. Just sell.
I am challenged to comment on Cenkos (CNKS) as an investment in light of todays news on its role in the Quindell fraud (HERE). Okay, I do my best. Then it is on to Techfinancials (TECH), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) and some friendly advice for Malcolm Stacey, Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite Energy (XEL) and then I end with Avanti Communications (AVN) where I hope you understand the historical analogy.
It is of course Bastille Day and that, of course, prompts a few jokes at the expense of the Froggies. I then move into Gulf Keystone (GKP) and a spot of moron baiting and working out moron investing game theory. I then move to a detailed look at Digital Globe (DGS) before covering en passant XCite (XEL), LGO Energy (LGO), Trinity (TRIN), Circle Oil (COP), Premier Oil (PMO), IGAS (IGAS) and Nostra Terra (NTOG). I also comment on Glenwick (GWIK), 88 Energy (88E), Strat Aero (AERO) and Inspirit Energy (INSP)
For months and months Trinity Exploration (TRIN) has been in default on loans taken out with Citibank. Investors who declined to sell the worthless shares seemed to believe the truism that "If you owe the bank $1 you are in trouble, if you owe $1 million the bank is in trouble" as Citibank - which was actually owed $13 million declined to pull the plug. Until today. Instead of the normal weekly rollover announcement we are told:
As Gulf Keystone (GKP) sputters toward its inevitable fate, the hunt is on to spot the next equity wipeout in this space. There are quite a few runners and riders. I mentioned Xcite (XEL) a while back and Premier Oil (PMO) is also in the frame. My nap however is Igas Plc (IGAS) as the next for the chop.
It seems that Dallas Cowboys News likes my tweets on the matter of its cheerleaders so I talk about them again. Then I move on to ECR Minerals (ECR), Servision (SEV) and the spivs at Belfort Securities, Gulf Keystone (GKP), Rose Petroleum (ROSE), Clarkson (CKSN), XCite Energy (XEL) and TrakM8 (TRAK)
I am not writing much today as I am 100% fecked off with everyone especially Ben Turney, Jason Drummond and lyin' George Osborne. Instead I finished my olive pruning. I think I am going to quit writing and become a full time olive pruner. I discuss Teathers Financial (TEA), the Brexit vote, Photo-Me (PHTM), Chemring (CHG), Churchill Mining (CHL), xCite Energy (XEL) and dog spreadbetting waste of space London Capital (LCG)
I am back in from the fields where I have been labouring in 40 degree plus heat. Today I offer a few thoughts on Circassia (CIR) and the risks folks just dont seem to appreciate of a) biotech and b) backing stock selections of star fund managers, in this case Neil Woodford - who incidentally is clearly a very talented chap. I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite Energy (XEL), China Frauds and then in some detail at Blur (BLUR). For further info on its brain dead dickhead of a PR man Dominic Barretto go HERE
I start with the murder of Jo Cox MP and the disgusting way EU suporters are using it to lie and smear as you can read HERE. In Greece today it is 40 degrees plus and I am a sweating wreck after a session of olive pruning, braving the snakes which brings me to Phil "InterX" Crawford of Lombard Risk Management (LRM) and the question he has to answer NOW. Elsewhere I look at Highlands Natural Resources (HNR) following up on this piece, C-Dialogues (CDOG), XCite Energy (XEL) - all shout Timber!!!!!! - Scancell (SCLP) and the uber dog Mkango Resources (MKA).
Well fingers crossed anyway - I cannot claim to be hiding my views! The Mrs flies back to the UK today so normal full work service resumes tonight. Pro tem I have comments on Vast Resources (VAST), Highlands Natural Resources (HNR), PHSC (PHSC), XCite Energy (XEL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Totally (TLY) and Skil Ports & Logistics (SPL).
Xcite Energy (XEL) the drowning in debt North Sea wannabee has announced that bondholders are to meet on June 30th - the day the $139 million bonds were due to be repaid - to agree to a rollover. But there is an admission, and for shareholders it meets get out the vaseline...you are going to get shafted badly. Its now official.
There may not be a bearcast tomorrow. It is all down to the arrival of the Mrs as I explain. Meanwhile I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and XCite (XEL). The best time to kick a man is when he is down. So says Evil Knievil. And that applies to these two oilers where events are moving fast and the shares are near enough certs to be toast already. CIC Gold (CICG) is in an even worse state and today's RNS is a shambles. The curse of boy scout mugger Stuart Bromley strikes again. It is doomed. Then I discuss what, if anything, is wrong at TrakM8 (TRAK). Then a question raised by the share price move on Friday at ADVFN (AFN).
And so today, Circle Oil (COP) has admitted what anyone with half a brain cell could have figured, that it is officially toast. The question is which of the drowning in debt oil mid caps or large E&Ps will be next to fess up? There is an RNS from Gulf Keystone (GKP) today saying its bondhoders have given it another 11 days but could it be overtaken by XCite (XEL), whose shares are sliding as the clock ticks? Other oilcos in breach of loans include Trinity Exploration (TRIN) and LGO Energy (LGO) while the yield on IGAS debt suggests it is in the merde. So who will be next to admit it's toast, to use either the word "administration" or the phrase "little or no value for shareholders". Voting deadline is midnight tonight.
Xcite Energy (XEL) has today announced a new reserves and resources report for its Bentley field. In three months time the company must refinance $125 million of bonds and right now net cash is sub $10 million and falling fast and it has zero revenues. Discussing the economics of a field where Xcite has failed patently to get the farm in partner needed to take it to production is like Hitler worryig about the seating plans for dinner in 1945 as Russian tanks entered Berlin. The only issue now is the scale of the shareholder wipeout. Heck, even respectable and normally cautious brokers such as SP Angel are now openly saying what I have said for an awfully long time, the smell is of toast and it is everywhere.
In the race to 0p who will win? After today's statement FastJet (FJET) is in the running as is LGO Energy (LGO), PetroCeltic and XCite Energy (XEL) which also had news today. I also look at Plethora (PLE) and the idea of something which is too good to be true. Then I move onto Richard.Chase@Nyotaminerals.com - if you have not emailed the greedy useless mother yet PLEASE DO SO NOW. I offer up a suggested form of wording for your email. Warning/ Bad language alert.
And yet again the Bulletin Board Morons take something of a battering because they thought they knew better. This time it is - essentially bankrupt - Petroceltic (PCI), shares in which have this morning been suspended pending clarification. Ooops a daisy.
The weekend press is full of stories of doom and gloom and dividend cuts for BP (BP.) and Shell and clearly there are a stack of smaller companies that are totally screwed and where shareholders are likely to face total wipeout. In that vein I discuss Magnolia (MAGP), Igas (IGAS), Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite (XEL) and, of course, LGO Energy (TOAST). But is there a case for buying oil shares as a long term invester. I look at a few cases from BP down to Union Jack Oil (UJO). Perhaps there is no rush but the time will come.
I am sorry for the delayed podcast but I am only just back from time in the Grim Northern welfare safari with the mother in law and thus can now let myself go with a volley of bad language. I end with an explanation of who benefitted from the £150 million + Himex fraud at Quindell (QPP) laid bare earlier HERE and how it also affects Watchstone (WTG). Before that I talk of my annoyance on the silly blogger spats and the explain the difference between a cash shell and an investment company and why I regard our work on exposing the latter as invaluable. In the middle segment I have more bad news for oil companies such as XCite (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Petroceltic (PCI) & Gulf Keystone (GKP) and for the sector as a whole but also for the markets. Dont blame China, we bears are still in the driving seat.
I am not in a good mood. Is this more to do with the reaction to Brokerman Dan's piece here yesterday or an impending trip to the Grim Northern welfare safaris to see the mother in law. Anyhow this podcast contains a lot of bad language. I discuss Daniel's contribution. The market was in a good mood yesterday and thus a number of wholly irrational share price spikes get covered: Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), XCite Energy (XEL), Condor Gold (CNR) and especially Highway Capital (HWC) which I cover in detail. I also explain why I remain bearish and comment on Aureus Mining (AUE) which announced a "strategic review" i.e. it is totally fucked.
I continue the theme of what capitalism really means from yesterday's bonus bearcast on the news that North Sea oil companies want Chancellor George Osborne to use your hard earned cash to bail them out. I explain why the Chancellor needs to ignore this completely even if it means that the North Sea basically goes bust taking a number of listed companies - I mention XCite (XEL) specifically - with it. Sorry, I don't care if Aberdeen becomes a ghost town. Taxpayers from the profitable part of the economy should NEVER subsidise loss making sectors, be they milk farmers, oil companies or the Yorkshire coal miners that the great and much missed Maggie Thatcher quite rightly put on the dole.
Today's ramp de jour is Marechale (MAC) which I debunk completely. The same rampers were active in Peer TV (PTV) - see earlier - and Glenwick (GWIK). They are scumbags. I laugh at Lenigas Cuba (CUB) have you seen the latest trade? Then it is onto Environmental Recyclying (ENRT), Octagonal (OCT), LGO Energy (TOAST), Greatland Gold (GGP), STM Group (STM), Phorm (PHRM), Quantum Pharma (QP.), XCite Energy (XEL) and Bahamas Petroleum (BPC), both in my 11 oil stocks to go bust list.
The weekend news from the oil sector is grim. I am not sure that folks out there in, what Malcolm Stacey might term, punterland realise just how grim it is. There is a massive PR and IR industry supporting the proposition that things can only get better. Au contraire, for the next few months at least, they are going to get a lot worse. And in that spirit I offer up a list of eleven oil E&Ps to sell now, to get out what and while you can, as they could well hit zero.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at shares in Chaarat Gold (CGH), Iofina (IOF), Manx Financial (MFX) and Xcite Energy (XEL) setting share price targets for all four stocks.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at shares in Chaarat Gold (CGH), Orosur Mining (OMI) and Xcite Energy (XEL) setting share price targets for all three stocks.
In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.
Shares in Xcite Energy (XEL) are up 6.25% this morning on news of the company’s farm-in with Azinor Catalyst Limited. Under the terms of the deal, Azinor has the opportunity to earn into the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Licence P.1979, held by Xcite’s subsidiary Xcite Energy Resources. In return for completing a technical evaluation and then possibly an Induced Polarization survey of P.1979, Azinor could receive as much as 50% of the licence’s equity. On the face of it this looks like decent enough news for Xcite. The deal should enable progress at this non-core asset, allowing the company to focus on its flagship Bentley project. However, Xcite is giving up a significant proportion of P.1979 in return. The question now is, can this deal deliver value to shareholders?
Featuring shares in AFC Energy (AFC), Audioboom (BOOM), CEB Resources (CEB), Mariana Resources (MARL), Strat Aero (AERO), Xcite Energy(XEL) with share price targets for all six stocks.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at shares in Boohoo.com (BOO), Intelligent Energy (IEH) and Xcite Energy (XEL) setig share price targets for all three.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at shares of Aminex (AEX), Ithaca Energy (IAE), Xcite Energy (XEL) and offer some share price targets.
Everyone knows J. Paul Getty's formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil; and pretty much everyone I know in the oil business rises early and works hard, some of them even strike oil. So it's hard to find many oil folk who don't believe in the quote, of course the tricky bit is the last part of the aphorism. Striking oil generally requires a decent dollop of good fortune as well as brilliant geoscience and that elusive material, money; however when we do strike oil these days we generally manage to keep it in the well, unlike these pioneers in times past who needed to have a decent turn of speed when they struck oil.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at the shares of Amara Mining (AMA), Hurricane Energy (HUR), Xcite Energy (XEL) and offer some share price targets.
How do you know what a North Sea development project will cost? Well, most of us have our rules of thumb, some a tad more sophisticated than others. They range from just knowing that North Sea capex per barrel has been running at nearly $30/bbl for the last few years to sophisticated computer models based on construction rates and equipment weights.
Featuring AFC Energy (AFC), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO), Xcite Energy (XEL), Xtract Resources (XTR)
Featuring Greatland Gold (GGP), Noricum Gold (NMG), Reneuron (RENE), Xcite Energy (XEL)
It was very disappointing to read about Xcite Energy’s (XEL) options award this morning. In total the company has awarded 6.7million options, with an exercise price of £0.64 (yesterday’s close), to various members of staff and the board. The bulk of these options go to employees and there shouldn’t be many concerns about this. I appreciate the need to keep the troops happy and to retain key players. Giving employees a sense of ownership in the business has to be positive. However, the 2.65million options the directors have awarded themselves are in extremely poor taste. Broadly speaking, I’ve become a fan of Xcite’s over the last four or five months, but I’m under no illusions that recent performance can yet be judged a success. The new strategy is risky and so far, judging by the share price, the market is not convinced. Xcite’s board is in serious need of a credibility overhaul. Today, it has, rather unfortunately, thrown away an excellent opportunity to demonstrate its contrition for not securing a farm-out and genuine commitment to building future shareholder value.
A comment earlier by my colleague Gary Newman, in his excellent write up of Xcite Energy (XEL), made me think about the Falkland Islands’ explorers. I know Gary regards most of these as speculative punts. He tends to prefer stocks with proven reserves, which are producing or are on the cusp of production. However, his point about buying AIM-listed oil stocks when there is little news and interest is a very good one. Most people have followed the Falklands’ story over the last decade and most will be aware that the share prices of the various companies involved haven’t done much for two years. This could all be about to change, as we enter the final six months before the next, long-awaited drill campaign.
The time to buy AIM oil shares is when nothing seems to be happening, especially if you’re taking a longer term view and not just looking for a quick buck. Xcite Energy (XEL) is certainly a company that applies to and you could be forgiven for thinking that it is trying to bore its investors into submission, given the rate of progress being made.
It is very difficult to put much of a positive spin on today’s bond issue and placement by Xcite Energy (XEL). The funding is extremely expensive, the terms Xcite has entered into are worse than those it previously had and it looks like at least one of the company’s major funders has decided not to continue backing it. This is all bad news for Xcite’s new strategy to commercialise its North Sea Bentley oil field, as the market appears to have priced this project for likely failure. There are a couple of faint glimpses of hope, but I now have to revisit my call to buy this stock, from just over a fortnight ago.
The more I’ve looked at Xcite Energy (XEL) recently the more I’ve liked this stock. Last week, I wrote an initial positive response to the company’s AGM presentation. Since then, I’ve watched the share price bump along around the 70p mark. Ideally I am hoping for a sub-65p entry level, but I might be pushing my luck with this. Notwithstanding a market wide retreat, it looks like a base is forming, as investors digest details of the company’s new strategy to commercialise Bentley.
My recent commentary on Xcite Energy (XEL) has put me at odds with some of my colleagues here at ShareProphets. Despite what many of our faceless critics have to say, one thing I love about working with this company is that we support genuine debate. We don’t impose myopic, rigid editorial positions and we recognise it takes opposing views to make a market. Above all, we encourage our contributors to write what they genuinely believe. In the case of Xcite, the more I read about and research the path this company is now on, the more bullish I feel about its future.
I am trying as hard as I can to be open-minded about the prospects of Gulf Keystone (GKP). Yesterday, Tom penned another bearish piece on Gulf, in response to the morning’s Interim Management Statement. He raised some valid points, but where I felt his analysis fell short was he didn’t take into account what was promised in the recent Competent Persons Report.