Gold finished for Christmas at just about $1810, up $11 on the week as Gold enjoyed a very minor Santa rally. The view from the Montana log-cabin is that this recovery of $1800 is fragile in the short term, but I expect a much stronger 2022 as the grinding correction fizzles out and the US heads into mid-term elections at the end of the year.
This is a market where being short can be exceedingly painful. As Gabriel Grego found out the other day, even what appear to be slam dunk frauds can roof it. This is what happens at the fag end of a bull market. But in the UK, I sense that there is now real ennui among investors, both institutional and the spivs at the bucket shops, when it comes to placings.
I discuss all the things that tell me that we really are at the fag end of a bull market. Folks are exhausted by the endless placings, by the lies and the culture of accepting wrong doing. I disagree with comrade Malcolm Stacey, seeing no reason for a Santa Rally next week.
We live in an era of greed, an era when the unscrupulous will encourage you to speculate on the uninvestable. They will make money in these fag days of the bull market. If you invest in their companies or products you will lose money. It is that simple. Welcome to the latest creation of David Lenigas. Of course he is not a director…
It has been a bad day at the homestead, the Welsh Hovel, as I explain. I have also had a run in with Shipmans and other staff at “the envy of the fecking world” so am in a bad mood. I discuss Kefi (KEFI) and what is happening in Ethiopia. I know more than all the BB savants but there is only so much that I can say. Then I look at the David Beckham-linked swizzle at Guild ESports (GILD) and, by implication, Cellular Goods (CBX) both of which will end in tears and be posterboys for the bezzles at the fag end of a bull market.
Hello Share Swivellers. One of the more sensible pieces of advice in the crazy shares game is ‘sell the peaks and buy the dips.’ It’s also the hardest action to get right. Will the dip fall even more or will the peak become higher?
I start on the usual subject. Please do donate HERE. Then I discuss a bull market and the bezzle and recent deals that are simply corrupt or wrong or deceptive. The case studies are Live Company (LVCG), Iconic (ICON) and Powerhouse (PHE). Anyone spending 20 minutes on the internet can see for themselves. Only in a raging bull market could folks think they would get away with such nonsense. I comment on the crisis at Bidstack (BIDS) and then analyse today’s trading statement from ADVFN (AFN) and what it means for the battle for the board.
I know I am a complete financial sector sado, but I always like to see how many investment analysts find usefulness in the concept that you should “sell in May and go away, and come on back on St. Leger’s Day” (with the latter this year falling on the eleventh of September). It is a lovely saying but – based on a few years of looking at the data – it is also usually wrong! I think fifty or one hundred years ago it was focused on the idea of stockbrokers and investors liking the concept of leaving their office and being able to attend horse racing, tennis, rowing and various other society events during the summer. Suffice to say – well before recent challenges – the finance and investment world is a very different place nowadays.
I refer to Elon Musk vs my friend Evil Knievil and so far, I am sad to report, the forces of light and truth, that is to say EK, are half a Bernie down and Tesla’s Elon is drowning in filthy lucre. I consider life in the year 2000 and today’s bull market madness. I look at Plutus Powergen (PPG), MyHealthChecked (MHC), Grafenia (GRA), BigDish (DISH) and Eurasia Mining (EUA asking if the regulators will ever force it to make a statement.
Author Charles Goyette does not mince his words. They will print dollars until they destroy the currency and this means you must be ready for the last great gold rush. He argues that there is something different about this bull market – bull markets are generally driven by money printing, but today this is unprecedented and global.
One of the true highlights on the July online MineProphets shares conference was, in my view, my interview with David Scott of Andrews Gwynne. When we did that interview, David said he would let me know when he went negative on bonds and called an end to the 35 year bull market. This is that call.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, the only chartist we take seriously, predicted the recent correction in gold. What next?
All bear markets are different, but it strikes me that the current one does bear some resemblance to the banking crisis of 2008. For a start, the apparent solution is more money printing from the central banks and more record-low interest rates. And that brings me to gold.
Befire Versarien (VRS) owning morons get too excited I do explain what happened in full. Then it is onto Sirius Minerals (SXX) where it does seem increasingly likely that having been egged on by folks like ShareSoc, the turkeys will be voting for Christmas tomorrow. Then onto Big Dish (DISH) and comments from a chap call Mitch below my article of earlier today which show the mindset of bull market madness - I take him and those who think like him to task in a big way.
Analyst Ronald-Peter Stöeferle looks back at gold’s performance during 2019 and discusses how it operates as a seventh sense in the market. Gold is revealing issues and projecting an increase in recessionary and inflationary concerns. Both of these topics are quickly becoming contrarian perspectives as the Economist magazine recently noted in their Special Report that “We have reached the end of inflation.” Sentiment for gold remains negative despite gold reaching all-time highs against fifty currencies. All of this is indicating that we are still at the start of the bull market.
Investor and fund manager Matt Geiger starts with a discussion of the nickel market and its performance over the past year. The long-term demand picture looks good as E.V. adoption rates continue to grow, and Matt suggests that lithium-ion batteries should instead be called nickel-ion batteries. He thinks the market will embrace the improving nickel narrative.
Gold runs in the veins of veteran financier Jamie Strauss, one of the biggest names in the London mining scene. Jamie argues that the commodity sector is steadily advancing and beginning to take advantage of machine learning and automation. Also, the financing of projects now requires a lot more due diligence as sophisticated investors and streaming companies require it. All of these changes are making the sector very exciting.
Rick Rule of Sprott Asset Management, the world's best knowm resource investors, cut his teeth in a bull market a time when anyone can look like an expert!
Analyst Chantelle Schieven says, “When no one wants to talk to you about gold, you know you’re at the bottom of the bear market.” When investors are attracted to other assets, then gold often gets overlooked. Gold is now becoming noticed again, and we see the change in the public interest.
As the only technical analyst with any credibility at all, we listen to Jordan Roy-Byrne. Jordan is not sure how long thislatest bull move in gold will last, but it could be a big one that lasts at least the next six months to a year.
Mining entrepreneur Rob McCewen gave the keynote talk at the recent Hard Asset conference and discussed where we are in this new bull market for gold. He discusses the historic Dow to Gold ratio and why we headed back to the day when one ounce of gold will once again purchase one share of the DOW. He thinks gold is headed much higher and likely towards $5000.
Entrepreneur Brandon Munro remembers the last uranium bull market and how much of it was focused around Australia. He says, “Paladin was an incredible ride in 2005 when it moved from four cents to two dollars.” That period was a wild intensely informative ride, and it taught him just how much leverage can come to uranium stocks.
Geologist and analyst Mickey Fulp feels the gold market has bottomed and that a new bull market is developing albeit slowly. Once the rally begins, he argues, it will quickly move the mining equities. They are positive on the price of gold, due to global economic outlook being weak, geopolitical risks like Brexit and Venezuela, as well as U.S. and China trade talks. Central banks continue to buy, and a dovish Federal Reserve will likely have one interest rate hike in 2019 are all bullish factors for gold.
Philip O'Neill started his career in the junior mining space in the early 2000s by investing in uranium. He discusses the last bull market and how it did exceedingly well and how the market can surprise you. Today there is much more experience in the uranium markets so the coming bull market should be more mature.
Newsletter editor and broadcaster David Morgan contrasts today’s market with that of the bull market of the 1970s. Back then the coinage had just separated from the silver standard to today’s fiat standard. People at that time understood this would lead to problems. However, few recognize this fact today. He says, “From a value investor perspective, you need to consider that on an inflation-adjusted basis; silver is cheaper than it has ever been.” This is due to the amount of money printing in the world today.
The one technical analyst we take seriously, no not the Sith Lord Zak Mir but Jordan Roy-Byrne, sees resistance levels on the charts for gold and silver which indicate that we are not in a bull market yet and indeed we may see some short term weakness. Courtesy of Palisade Capital, over to the great man...
Mining entrepreneur Ross Beaty reckosn the really good times are coming for we gold bulls. He feels that we have been in a gold bull market since 2015. Gold had a good breakout in 2016, and that seems to be in the first leg of a bull market. Anyone who has invested in gold equities should do very well in the next few years.
There is a tendency to look at the gold price in US dollar terms simply because that is the currency it nominally trades in within the bullion wholesale market. The bias is reinforced by the headline writers who do likewise… yet meanwhile in other currencies gold has been in a stealth bull market these last 4 years.
A trading update from online musical instruments and equipment retailer Gear4music (G4M) includes “sales growth during the period of 36% being ahead of our expectations”… so why a current approaching 5% share price fall, below 600p?…
I have flagged up material concerns about IQE (IQE) and its valuation in two recent articles HERE and HERE. For those so enthused with bull market euphoria that they ignored those warnings, here are another six matters for them to consider carefully.
We know that BCA Marketplace (BCA) is highly operationally and financially geared. It has too much debt. Its chairman dumped over a million quid's worth of shares at 188p – and Avril is no fool. The car market is struggling so there must be questions over earnings visibility . and yet from left field there may be a bid. Bizarre.
Looking at all bull markets in the S&P since the year 1900, and then examined what happened in the very first year after each of those bull markets ended is interesting. In the first year of the bear market after the last full year of the bull market the numbers were striking and could be useful if 2017 ends up being the peak of the bull market.
Yes it does sound crazy but we live in a crazy old world don't we? Keith Neumeyer argues that the reason the resource markets are lagging is due to institutions not entering the metal market. The this is that until there is a crack in the major markets, we will not see institutional money flow into the mining equities. The market is quite similar to the year 2000 when it was flat and then took off. History is repeating itself. We need some sort of correction and sane-ness to enter the market. He feels the coming bull market will be quite impressive.
This is a two part bearcast. In part one I discuss what is the biggest single investment we have made for a couple of years which comes back to the market this week. I explain why I am excited and why we have gone in big. Then I pick up on Malcolm Stacey's article yesterday on Day Trading. A) Don't do it and B) why this is one of many signs that remind me of the latter stages of the 2001 bull market. I recount my failings as a whistleblower then and why I am so depressed by the sordid antics of today's AIM
Nigel Wray and a raft of big name institutions have ploughed £59.4 million to date into Nutmeg, the online platform offering automated advice on fund allocation. Results out today beg the questions "why?" and "is this another sign of bull market insanity"
Fund manager Matt Geiger thinks we were in a consolidation period of this precious metals bull market for the past year. He doesn’t see much downside from here. It’s been a relatively healthy period for investors to get into the market. In terms of the gold price we are more likely to reach $1400 than to see $1200 again, he argues.
Of course the world's best known investor in resource stocks is talking his own book. But it is a big call made in the latest podcast from Palisade Capital. In it, Eric discusses the recent gains in gold and silver. In 2016 stocks went up 160% in six months, we could be looking for something similar in the gold sector. It’s a tiny part of the overall market that could explode quickly.
Ali Zamani argues that gold has been in a bull market since the end of last year. The start of bull markets often go unnoticed; it’s a grind. However, we are making higher highs and higher lows. He looks at the most successful macro investors and many have come out recently with breakout calls. The ground is fertile, the charts look good, and the base is in, gold will rise quicker than most people think. Indeed he explains why gold will hit new record highs ssoner than most folks think.
Hello, Share Bangers. There’s little doubt about it the good ship Shareland is entering very spooky waters. At any time now, the bull market will suddenly turn into a bear that will charge around the china shop. Mixed metaphors a speciality!
A year ago Ronald Stoeferle stated that we were at the very beginning of a bull market in gold, He was wrong. He says that was stopped by Donald Trump. Gold and commodities are dirt cheap when compared to stocks. Equities, bonds, and real estate are at or near their all time highs. He thinks the dollar is close to rolling over.
Hello Share Mashers. It’s going to be a scary end to the week. What if Labour gets in? The Big City won’t like that and shares will dive heavily. But that will be a short-lived shocker, in my view. Because Jezzer in power will cause the pound to fall even lower. And that more than anything is keeping the Footsie at record highs.
Hello Share Toddlers. My weekend piece suggesting we don’t sell our shares too soon received a critical response from Uncle Tom. It’s a return to the familiar battle between me in the blue corner and the sage of Bristol in the red one.
The things I do for you dear reader: go to the Spring Fair and read the Mail on Sunday. Truly what sacrifices I make. We are in the tail end of a bull market for low grade AIM stocks. So I discuss events and share price movements at Amur Minerals (AMC), Arian Silver (AGQ) with its shit head of a PR man - Nu Oil & Gas (NUOG), Cloudtag (CTAG) and the truly incestuous events at Glenwick (GWIK)
Resource specialist Fund manager Frank Holmes argues that the gold and bond markets and have been driven by global uncertainty. Bond rates have begun to decline again which is bullish for the gold market. Holmes reckons forward looking industrial indicators are currently positive - they are predictive of future global economic demand. Holmes says this is a good sign, and may be the underlying reason why commodities have been rallying.
In the mining sector, there is an old adage that is often invoked at the beginning of a new bull market – “producers will move before explorers and developers.” It might make intuitive sense, but the adage rings false claims Palisade Capital in its latest research. Over to the broker...
I again find myself asking about the high correlation between those who own shares in the crappiest frauds on AIM and those who think calling someone gay is a term of abuse. Whatever. Of more import I look at twitter a case study in bull market insanity. It will not be "different this time" and there is a case for saying that the shares are worth $0.
Thom Calandra has learned with age that trying to predict where the world economy will go is often very difficult. The purchasing power of gold and real estate against paper currencies is a possible indicator. There is a compression of paper currency everywhere, and it’s difficult to see where the US dollar is going when it’s only trading against other paper. His ultimate insurance is to have plenty of metal stashed away. Against that background...
Over the past 45 years there have been 7 bull cycles and 7 bear cycles in gold equities with varying duration and percentage gains what does history tell us about how long the current bull market will last. Steve Todoruk of Sprott says there are clues in the charts. Over to Steve...
We are 7-8 years into a monetary experiment that has never been done before. In previous bull markets we weren’t looking at the potential end of the financial system as we know it. When central banks monetize, they destroy the currency. This is happening all over the world. That is the thesis of gold guru Bill Holter.
Ok this is perhaps just a bit of fun but with our gold exposure I can't say that Id mind greatly if Palisade Capital's prediction comes true. Over to the broker:
It’s definitely not too late to get into the precious metals bull market - that is the claim made in this week's Palisade Capital podcast, by Matt Geiger. Even though the gains at the beginning of this cycle have been extreme, we still have a long way to go. These next 16-18 months should be exciting! Matt argues says that typically the real money will be made in the first half of the cycle. He recommends being aggressive in investments up to mid 2018- after that it’s likely to be less lucrative.
Hello Share Tillers. There can be little doubt now that the Footsie will burst through the all-important 7,000 mark this week. But we still have the problem of what shares to pick, even in a tangible bull market like this. I almost said a 'healthy' bull market, but we all have to be cautious in these uncertain days.
Tocqueville Gold Fund manager, John Hathaway is convinced the gold bottom is behind us simply because of the lack of people involved in the sector outside the core long term investors. Silver is an excellent indicator of investor sentiment and its slow rise relative to gold shows the mainstream is still far from being on board. There is still a long way to run with the bull market, at least another 4 years.
He may be a technical analysis freak but that does not mean he is not correct. After all this is not Zak "Judas" Mir we are talking about here. Jordan Roy Byrne argues that at the start of a bull market the miners perform way ahead of the metals and this is what we are seeing now. This has been the worst bear market in 90 years, so the following bull market should prove to be even bigger.
Yesterday my sentiment indicator turned bearish. I know the FTSE 100 is in bullish mood this morning but this was expected. Don’t forget that the FTSE was up 10% in 11 days at the recent high. Such a move has stimulated the bulls, they think the bull market has resumed. Well they will be disappointed, the move up currently underway is a dead cat bounce.
Bubbles arise when asset prices inflate above what underlying incomes can sustain. Centuries ago, the Dutch woke up one morning and discovered that tulips were simply just flowers after all. But today, the world has yet to wake up to the mathematical reality that over $200 trillion in global debt and perhaps another $500 trillion of un(der)funded liabilities really cannot ever be paid back under current terms.
As a gold bug here for many months can I now say "I told you so". Things are starting to move in the junior mining sector, it’s the beginning stage of a bull market. That is what Jeb Handwerger tells my colleagues at Palisade Capital this week and he is right. The market fundamentals are greatly improved and a major breakout is looking imminent and some big investment plays are starting to happen. As the Nasdaq turns down investors are looking to protect their assets. The US dollar is also starting to correct, this could cause a major move out of the dollar into the gold silver safe haven, as Jeb explains clearly.
I see the Daily Telegraph is today still pushing the "we are in a bull market don't miss out" line so favoured by Malcolm Stacey. It is not a view I share. This article by Jim Quinn appeared on Zero Hedge yesterday and is superb. Just brilliant. Read it and be warned...
I am a gold bug so I certainly dont disagree with industry legend Rick Rule of Sprott. The depth of a bull market speaks to the size of the recovery and Rick believes that this bear market could be one for the history books. But when will the bear end?
When I last wrote about Red Rock Resources (RRR) three months ago I said it looked like a “binary gamble”. So far the gamble has not paid off. Red Rock’s share price fell from 0.03p to 0.02p. However, the last two announcements from the company look surprisingly positive. In this morning’s trade, I’ve watched Red Rock’s Offer move from 0.025p to 0.03p on higher than average volume. Given that we are less than halfway through the session, this suggests that some in the market are starting to pay attention.
I leave it to Steve Moore to have the pleasure of plunging the knife into the dog blinkx (BLNX) after its profits warning HERE. It is a dog pure and simple and the shares, at 21p, are a stonking sell with a 12p target for starters. On the matter of blinkx we long term bears are again vindicated while the self-proclaimed expert on the stock, the disgraced ramper Roger Lawson of ShareSoc is one more shown up as a fool as well as a knave. But now to EBITDA.
Hello Share Scoffers. Uncle Tom believes that the present bull market is ‘ridiculous’. There are some other very perceptive and experienced writers on this scintillating website who agree with him. Including the morose, but sharply intelligent Frenchman and Amanda the Golden.
In this podcast I start with the debate between Wilderides and miserable froggie Thierry on Shell & BG Group but move to the wider issue of overconfidence ater a seven year bull market. Companies covered include Tungsten, Coms, 4D Pharma,, LGO Energy, Cyan, Plethora and Vipera
I am very pleased to see that my colleagues at Palisade Capital finally have a woman on the podcast this week – I am chairwoman of Women in Mining! Even better, Gwen Peston, the publisher of ResourceMaven.ca is a gold bull claiming that November 15 2014 market the bottom of this market. She explains five reasons why gold will surge from here as we establish, in 2015, the base of a new bull market in gold.
Hello Share Sweepers. As previously predicted by this old codger, the bull market is well and truly on track again. So far none of my detractors has acknowledged defeat, but when the old Footsie target of just short of 7,000 is breached, I expect some concessions on that front.
No wonder investors are so bullish, we are now officially into the third longst bull market in history. But will it last? In this week's edition of Financial Orbit I flag up a number of worrying indicators. And just for Tom W one of the flashing warning signs is coming for the country where he now seems to live most of the time, Greece.
I have said many times that the bull market of 2009-2014 is not the first leg of an even greater bull market that could last many, many years as many believe. The reason the stock market appears to be a one way bet is that stock prices have been inflated by the central banks. The question is: can we trust central banks?
You know that I am bullish on gold. I explained why the other week HERE. But wait till you hear whet legendary investor Rick Rule – who has called mining stocks correctly – says is going to happen in the next bull market to start soon. The other day my colleagues from Palisade Capital interviewed Rick and he is not holding back.
Adrian Day, from Adrian Day Asset Management, is a major bull of gold and puts the case well Hence my colleagues at Palisade Capital interviewed him on his controversial but coherent thoughts the other day. His views on mining stocks are equally forthright and entertaining.
Hello Share Wafters: When shares fall there is a perception that we should sell before things get worse. Whenever I have tried this, my recently-sold stocks have staged a miraculous recovery.
It’s hard to look like a genius in a bear market. This is exactly where we are today. Bear markets don’t last forever and nor, sadly, do bull markets. You look like a fool in a bear market and like a professor in a bull market, the trick is to not do too badly when markets slump and to do really well when they rally.
The severity of this week’s global sell-off in equities seems to have taken a lot of people by surprise. Five weeks ago, I wrote about the multi-year lows of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (the “Vix”) and the complacency it warned of. As I pointed out “the market loves nothing more than to punish complacency”. If you watched a screen of Thursday’s carnage in America, this is pretty much exactly what happened. The question now is, is this the beginning of the end of the bull market or just a healthy pullback, accentuated by low summer trading volumes?
Hello Share Tweakers: According to the latest figures, growth in Britain is up by another 0.8%. It doesn't sound much, does it? But growth is so tiny usually, that the latest improvement is not minor at all. The happy fact is that Blighty's GDP is rising faster than anyone expected. It is now higher than before that infamous Credit Crunch in 2007-8. That is going some.
Recorded in his Greek hovel half way up a mountain, Tom Winnifrith brings you his latest weekly video postcard and having dealt with rats and snakes all week in Greece his mind naturally turns to AIM.
I am currently in touch with an investor who has been extremely successful in the resource market on AIM over the years. The primary purpose of our discussions has been to talk about market maker practices (much more on this to follow), but a throwaway comment he made, caught my attention. I asked if he would mind if I shared this on our site, as it struck me as a useful and easy to use trading tip. He said it was fine and his little insight could be yet another pointer to the long awaited turnaround in resource stocks.
Hello Share Shiners: The world seems to be exploding with violence. We have Israel and Palestine, Syria, Iraq and the Ukraine to worry about. Saudi Arabia is deeply worried, so are other Middle East countries. Two hundred and fifty poor Egyptians face the death penalty. Libya is a powder keg waiting to go off. Some African countries, including Kenya and Nigeria are overrun by terrorists.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (the “VIX”) is one of the most widely followed barometers of the market’s mood. The VIX is an index which measures the implied volatility of S&P500 index options and gives a projection of expected volatility among US stocks over the next 30 day period. As a rule of thumb, when the VIX is low investors are meant to be confident (complacent?) and when it is high they are meant to be fearful. On Monday the VIX closed at its lowest mark since February 2007 (at 10.73), but what does this suggest about the next direction markets might take?
Hello Share Turners: The rector at my church married the curate at the weekend. A whacking 600 guests attended a garden party in the grounds.
Two profit warnings by spread betting companies last month caught my eye. First, London Capital Group (LCG) blamed poor trading activity in March as being responsible for an 11% drop in spread betting and CFD trades compared to the year prior. Next, IG Group Holdings (IGG) blamed relative weakness since mid-March’s Interim Management Statement for “generally subdued” trading. IG Group noted that “the relative weakness [was] most evident in May”. But what do these warnings say about general conditions?
It’s been a few weeks since I last covered gold. There hasn’t really been much to say. The precious metal has traded in a tight $30 range, since the end of March. Such periods of inaction have been relatively rare over the last decade, but I wonder now if there are increasing signs that pressure is building for a break to the upside.
Hello Share Crumblers: It's not often I'm right, so it's worth mentioning it when I am. I have been pretty isolated around this gaff by saying that the Footsie will keep on rising