A real buzz seems to have returned to the oil and gas sector in recent times and with commodity prices at their strongest for several years, and that even seems to be trickling down to the lower end of the market and the explorers now with some shares on a real rip.
These days there seem to be very few AIM oil or gas companies drilling wells targeting significant resources, and even fewer where the outcome is a success.
Hurricane Energy (HUR) is a company that I’ve been following and covering ever since the days before it drilled the Lancaster appraisal well; through the times when it looked like it could be a big AIM success story; and more recently when it was uncertain as to whether it would even survive.
I commented recently how I saw the oil and gas price having positive movement upwards in the near term. Since then, a few things have changed, but that does not include the oil price, which is still around the $82’ish level. I think an inflection point of pricing has now been reached however, it is not so much a case of fill your boots, as much as batten down the hatches. Two things happened yesterday that have moved my view on oil and gas.
Nostra Terra Oil and Gas (NTOG) is one of those companies that has always seemed to be popular with private investors over the years, but it is hard to see why as all it has done during that time is rack up substantial losses for them.
I have been following the COP26 two-week jamboree of the so called “great and the good” flying into Glasgow on private jets over the last two weeks. I have noted how some 18-year-old school kid from Scandinavia has been teaching our bonkers Prime Minister Carrie Boris Johnston to say Blah blah blah. It has been irritating and an insult to all thinking people. However, the implications to us investors are wide and many. A few views and opinions as the wafflefest comes to a close.
JKX Oil and Gas (JKX) is a company that I’ve followed for a number of years but it has never quite lived up to expectations, nor performed anywhere near as well as its assets on paper suggest that it should have.
BP (BP.) has announced third quarter of the year results, emphasising it is delivering significant cash to strengthen finances, growing distributions to shareholders and investing in strategic transformation.
Hello, Share Johnnies. News that the COP 26 get-together in Glasgow has backed Mark Carney’s plan to make banks and big investors avoid dirty fuels, understandably sent shares down in the likes of BP (BP.) and Shell (RDSA). But not by as much as you might think. And that’s probably because the high price of Brent crude means big oilers will announce juicy profits when they next report.
Petrofac (PFC) shares have been good for trading over the past few years, assuming you managed to get your entries right, but the company has had too many potential issues to really have been considered an investment, unless you had a very high appetite for risk.
Serica Energy (SQZ) has seen a sizeable drop in its share price over the past couple of days, and the news that landed this morning suggests that some got wind of this before the official RNS announcement. TW Note. Surely you are not suggesting insider dealing on the AIM sewer, the “world’s most succesful growth market” – surely not?
I start with a couple of talkes fromthe Welsh Hovel and what they say about inflation and that almost drove me into buying two stocks for my SIPP. I considered another two but then went for a fifth, an oil and gas play. I explain my thinking behind all. Then I discuss Peter Brailey’s piece on ITM Power (ITM)
The oil price is panning out largely as I expected when I last drafted on this matter back in March. We are now at $84 as I type, compared to the $67 when I last commented. I saw a high probability of $100 by year end, and so far, I see little to change my mind. Oil and Gas equity prices lag the commodity prices, and oil lags gas. I see real opportunity here, but not without some downside risk.
Hello, Share Lovers. If you strip out the rising share prices of oil companies, the Footsie is in retreat at the moment. Which is surprising given that, as Boris says, the economy is waking up after the worst ravages of covid. So why should shares be faltering when the signs look rather good?
Sometimes I look at a company and think its shares are just too cheap at the current market cap and is pretty much being priced to fail, yet in some cases there certainly doesn’t appear to be anything fundamentally wrong that suggests that to be the situation.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP) is a company that I’ve covered here several times before and which I believe has a lot of potential, and the latest drill results certainly seem to support that still being the case.
Hello, Share Collectors. Recently, I suggested that big oil companies might be undervalued. Since then the case for that view has strengthened. There seems to be even more reasons to buy shares in these companies, or at least to keep holding them.
Trinidad and Tobago oil and gas explorer Touchstone (TXP) has made a second quarter operational and financial update, including emphasising it is confident its funding capacity together with operations are sufficient to complete a budgeted four well development program as well as drilling Royston-1, one of a number of milestones it forecasts to achieve in the second half of the year.
Helium One Global (HE1) seems to be yet another in a long line of natural resources exploration companies that got way ahead of itself in terms of both shareholder and management expectations, before coming crashing back to earth when actual drilling gave it a reality check.
A few weeks ago I wrote a piece here about Cairn Energy (CNE) shares being too cheap, both in terms of its producing assets and also on the basis of any resolution of its long term battle with the Indian government. Quite a bit has happened since then.
Like many oil and gas companies at the lower end of the market, San Leon Energy (SLE) has had its fair share of ups and downs over the years, but in recent times has been heading in the right direction as it builds its business producing oil in Nigeria.
Union Jack Oil (UJO) has announced news on the West Newton B-1Z well, in which it has a 16.665% interest, that it is “encouraged by the indications of permeability of the lower portion of the Kirkham Abbey under test, and the initial recovery of hydrocarbons to surface”. What’s the detail of the ‘encouragement’?
I have been taking a brief look at AIM-listed Plexus – mainly because its ticker code is POS. So is it? Er……
Back in May here, I observed that the Irish international sales, marketing and support services group DCC (DCC) was a buy on ‘a bad day below the current sixty quid share price’. And so I did a few weeks ago. So following a numbers update on Friday, am I still excited?
Kosmos Energy (KOS) has to be one of the most under-rated oil companies listed in the UK, but I think that people that overlook it in favour of some of the more popular producers are wrong to do so.
Cairn Energy (CNE) is a company that I have followed for many years, almost for as long as its ongoing saga relating to compensation from the Indian government, but it is starting to look more likely that will actually finally be settled.
Formerly Sterling Energy and searching for years for a transformative M&A deal, this company is now Afentra (AET), emphasising “a complete transformation in recent months”. Many such-described moves are not particularly transformative but this one looks like it could indeed be…
I3 Energy (I3E) has been a great example of why past failure doesn’t necessarily point to a continuation of that in the future – in the same way that past success doesn’t mean that a company or management team will manage the same again.
Energy services provider Lamprell (LAM) saw its share price take a big hit following the release of its annual results for 2020, which included a statement about the need to raise further capital via an equity issue – the exact amount and terms of which is yet to be announced.
Previously writing on support vessels provider Gulf Marine Services (GMS), earlier this month with the shares at 3.25p I concluded hopefully my prior caution was heeded. As the attempted refinancing plays out, I currently continue to avoid. Today a “Result of Open Offer” announcement… and the shares currently further lower below 3p…
Oil has been on a bit of a charge recently and there aren’t any real signs of that strength coming to an end anytime soon, but quite a few of the producers haven’t responded as well as you would expect, in terms of share price movement.
Previously writing on support vessels provider Gulf Marine Services (GMS), with the shares above 7p in March I questioned it stating “as the numbers demonstrate… in a strong position”. Today a “pleased to announce… proposed capital raising” – and the shares currently at 3.25p…
When I covered Longboat Energy (LBE) last July there was much derision on social media and bulletin boards over my opinion that the company was well overvalued at the share price at that time, but it has just announced that it is raising funds at discount of around 40% to that level in order to complete an acquisition.
When an AIM company changes its name it can often be to try and hide a dodgy past, generally where it has raised money consistently from shareholders but failed to actually deliver anything, but there are also times when it can signal a change to the business and a move in the right direction.
The International Energy Agency was set up in 1974 to ensure the security of oil supplies, if you are old enough, like me, you might remember the Arab oil embargo, queues at petrol stations and rocketing oil prices. So, if the IEA come out and say “that no new oil and natural gas fields are needed in the net zero pathway”, then that must be true and all of us oil and gas professionals can hang up our boots and head to the scrapheap.
Predator Oil & Gas (PRD) has noted a schedule which sees drilling of the MOU-1 well, northern Morocco, to commence next month and expected to take up to 20 days and that it “opens up the potential not only for further drilling on a licence covering 7,269 km² and containing multiple prospects, but also to assess additional opportunities where a proven operator can add value”.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP) has fallen out of favour with investors in recent days following testing news at one of its wells which the market took badly and caused the share price to drop by more than 30%.
Shares in Predator Oil & Gas (PRD) reached 15p earlier last month, but are now available at a 12.8p offer price £34 million market cap (11.3p offer price, £29 million market cap when this article first appeared). That is despite a recent positive ‘Business development update’ and upcoming potential catalysts. It was our March tip of the month, targeting 18p to sell.
The oil and gas market is quite hard to read at the moment, particularly when it comes to individual companies which are producing, as some have seen large share price rises whilst others barely seem to have moved despite the fundamentals appearing to be strong.
The recent rise in the share price of 88 Energy (88E) has been very noticeable and it has held those gains so far in spite of the company putting out a statement that it knew of no reason for the rise, other than what had already been disclosed via RNSs.
Pharos Energy (PHAR) has been one of the worst stocks that I’ve been invested in – not necessarily in terms of the share price performance, although that has also been awful, but more the way the company has been managed and the amount of money that I’ve seen them waste over the years.
I have commented earlier today on NextEnergy Renewables (NREN). There is no question the UK grid has been under real stress this winter when the wind does not blow and the sun has set. The answer can only be gas fired stations in my view. Drax Group (DRX) is focused on Biomass power generation, but potential influence on gas fired generation worries me.
I haven’t commented on AIM-listed Cameroonian gas play Bowleven (BLVN) for some time – the last being back on 27 March last year when I asked are you brave enough to buy in the face of a big sell-off in oil and gas prices as the severity of the Covid crisis started to become apparent. The share price then was 2.17p in the middle and today’s news sees the shares up at 5.3p. I wasn’t brave enough to buy more….but my then existing holding is still there.
EnQuest (ENQ) is a company that I have followed for a long time and have previously been invested in myself, but over the past few years its shares have performed terribly and has never really recovered from the previous oil price slump, which bottomed out in 2016.
You might have noticed that recently I have started covering a few companies in the oil and gas sector as being worthy of a long term investment, and in case you are wondering if I’m mad to be doing so given what is going on in the world, I believe that it is the right time in the cycle to start positioning again.
People often try to tell me that it isn’t possible to make money by actually investing in AIM oil and gas companies and that they are only worth trading, but I would have to disagree based on some of those that I’ve picked out over the years as having long term potential.
As any regular readers here will know, I’ve been a fan of Serica Energy (SQZ) for many years and during that time have watched it grow into a mid-tier oil and gas producer, and I believe that now is the time to consider investing in the company once again.
This year a lot of private investors seem to have been focussing on any stocks even loosely associated with Covid, plus those in the tech sector, and more recently mining has also seen a resurgence, gold in particular, but oil and gas has very much remained unloved and out of favour. That gives you a great opportunity and this is no fisherman’s tale…
Block Energy (BLOE) is typical of so many AIM listed oil and gas companies, which sound great on paper but usually have spent years failing to live up to expectations whilst burning through considerable amounts of cash in the process.
RockRose Energy (RRE) was one of the real success stories amongst AIM listed oil companies prior to being taken over for nearly £250 million, and now its executive chairman, Andrew Austin, has made a return to AIM with a new venture which listed last week.
Whenever a smaller oil company is drilling a well these days you pretty much have to expect the share price to get hammered unless they announce a substantial find that exceeded market expectations, and that is exactly what hammered to Union Jack Oil (UJO) this week.
Buying shares in a large company which seems to be going through a rocky patch is always a risk, as in some cases these companies never actually manage to recover, but if you do get it right it can be very lucrative and Covid appears to have helped to create some good opportunities. Energy provider, Centrica (CNA) has performed terribly over the past six or seven years and anybody who has held it as a long term investment during that period of time will be sat on a sizeable loss. Even prior to the arrival of Covid it was already in a downwards spiral with high levels of debt and falling profitability, but the virus accelerated that and even though the markets and many energy shares have recovered to some degree in recent months, Centrica is still trading closer to the lows with a share price of 44.8p…
I had an interesting exchange in the comments section of this website with a subscriber (BlueFrewExile) who has encouraged me to write a little more on the some of the aspects of UK power system as consequence of my comments regarding BP (BP.) moving into the renewable energy sector. The last few decades have seen very material change in generation sources and Boris developing wind has of course added further dimensions to the considerations. With this being an investment commentary site, I will focus on a few opportunities I see after meandering through some of the issues.
Currently you could easily argue that there is a longer term investment case for numerous oil and gas producers, based on the assumption that commodity prices will improve over the next few years, and could even spike in the same way that we’ve seen in the past after prolonged periods of low demand.
If there was an award for the worst performing oil and gas share listed on AIM over the past decade there wouldn’t be a lack of contenders, but Nostra Terra (NTOG) would definitely be in the running!
Notwithstanding a £4.2 million placing at 0.2p back in June, UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) is now running on vapours. The question is not if it will do another bailout placing but when? And “news”, I use the term in the loosest possible sense, today suggests that Lyin’ Steve Sanderson et al are preparing to pass the hat around, yet again, very soon. There are already 10.97 billion shares in issue but brace yourself for another tsunami of worthless confetti to be arriving shortly.
Just because a company has traded at much higher share price levels it doesn’t mean that it will do so again, and that is particularly true of oil companies at the moment.
Longboat Energy (LBE) is a company that I actually like and hope does well longer term but, having seen its share price double, I’m finding it hard to see where the value is up here and would be inclined to at least bank some profit...
I had been wondering when further news would come from i3 Energy (I3E) and these week two significant RNSs dropped on the same morning, which ultimately led to shares being suspended for the foreseeable future.
There is a lot of focus on oil companies of all sizes at the moment, with many investors speculating on their future recovery now that commodity prices have improved, but I would probably be more focussed on those which largely produce gas.
Currently a lot of private investors seem to be looking around the oil and gas sector for the most bombed out stocks that they can find, in the belief that these will offer the most upside on commodity prices eventually recovering. The big problem with that though is that if commodity prices do stay fairly low for a prolonged period of time, as seems likely given expected demand levels even when things do start to recover plus the huge amount of oil sat in storage currently, then some of these companies may never actually recover...
My views on Block Energy (BLOE) haven’t exactly been popular over the past year as it was a favourite with private investors, but unfortunately so far everything has played out as I feared that it would do.
I’ve always gone on the basis that if something doesn’t feel quite right when it comes to non-binding deals being announced, then at the very least it is worth questioning the likelihood of completion. Of course, that isn’t always the case and some non-binding letters of intent, or memorandums of understanding, do in fact proceed as outlined, but my first thoughts when I saw today’s news from Zenith Energy (ZEN) was that it looked very ‘spoofy’...
Tom Winnifrith highlighted my current views on the oil price in a bearcast earlier this week. As most know I can see the good in just about any investment case, it’s just that most of the time the bad is just so much more compelling. Where is the oil price going? I do not know – who does?! But after years of supply side focus, I see the risk firmly on the demand side. Could oil price go negative? – yep for some grades, and perhaps all, I can see why that is not an outrageous statement.
I wouldn’t be rushing to buy shares in any companies at the moment, and probably even less so in anything natural resources related, unless you are prepared to take a fair amount of risk and have a very long-term time frame. The safest option is to just sit on cash and wait for not only the markets, but also the world economy, to turn around whenever we do finally see the back of this virus. You won’t get to buy in at the bottom if you wait for the trend to change, but you shouldn’t also suddenly find that the shares you bought are now another 50% lower! However...
It has been a truly wild period on the stock market and I fear it is going to get worse before it gets better. The coronavirus has ripped through everything and it is panic stations on the markets – as well as in the supermarkets. Some of it is logical: I’m not sure I would want to own shares in an airline right now, nor a restaurant business, and I would not be surprised to see some casualties in the fullness of time if the coronavirus plays out as seems to be expected.
I am still sitting on my shares in AIM-listed Bowleven (BLVN) which I picked up during the corporate handbags as the old management was given the boot. For a short while I looked very clever indeed as the shares headed north, allowing me to top-slice and last year a special dividend of 15p per share added to my returns. But things haven’t quite worked out as I had hoped….
Looking at the chart for Pharos Energy (PHAR) I wouldn’t blame you for coming to the conclusion that it is best avoided as it has been on a steady downwards trajectory for several years and with little sign of any relief.
Hello Share Chasers. Once the Tories surged back into power, you might have expected companies previously threatened by nationalisation to enjoy a big jump in their share prices. Well, there was some improvement, but not exactly a big jump in most cases. So it’s possible that the utilities, for example, could see some more jolly share action before long...
Making a profit on small oil and gas exploration and appraisal companies largely comes down to timing your buys and sells correctly, rather than just holding onto your shares through the ups and downs. With many of these companies the actual risk of holding for a drill often isn’t worth it, especially with exploration plays, but good money can still be made in the lead up to drilling activity, and by leaving some profit to run in the case of some of the safer appraisals. Buying when there is a general lack of interest and no immediate operational activity, and then being patient, is often the best way to get in at a good price – even if not necessarily the lowest price, as that generally comes down to a large slice of luck...
Hello, Share Pickers. As a shareholder in Black Rock’s Greater European Fund (BRGE), I take account of what the company’s supremo has to say about the future. And the interestingly-named Larry Fink says climate change worries will cause a "fundamental re-shaping of finance”. And that it’ll come a lot sooner than expected.
Hello Share Peekers. I’ve always regretted my very long-term holding in JKX Oil & Gas (JKX), the middle range producer. That’s because the share value has eroded sharply over the years. However, things now seem to be picking up...
A ShareProphets reader has requested that I take a look at Aminex (AEX), which is a bit of a blast from the past, as I can remember a time, quite a few years back, when this Tanzanian focussed company was popular with private investors and was going to be the next big thing in oil and gas.
Excellent news about Malcom's 'big relief' yesterday but I have a different interpretation about a company he mused about earlier in the week: Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB).
Hello Share Takers. With the market so unpredictable in these pre-election days, perhaps I should take a look at an old favourite even if I have reviewed it fairly recently. My view: that I should not dump this share any time soon, despite a slight threat of nationalisation, has not weakened...
It has been fascinating watching Sound Energy (SOU) play out over the past few years, but probably less so if you’ve actually been invested in it!
I always find it surprising that private investors are prepared to take big risks on the drilling of oil and gas wells, yet they won’t touch certain shares due to geo political risks.
My views on Block Energy (BLOE) in recent months haven’t exactly been popular amongst shareholders, but unfortunately much of what I feared in relation its operations is now playing out and I feel that investors have been deceived by the company. I have been utterly vindicated. It will get worse for thise who ignore my latest warning.
There seem to be a number of mid-sized oil producers which have fallen out of favour with investors for quite some time now, and I’d definitely have to include North Sea-focussed EnQuest (ENQ) high up on that list...
It is hard to see why the share price of Jadestone Energy (JSE) has dropped recently as there seems to be little reason for it to have done so, and on that basis it definitely deserves closer attention...
President Energy (PPC) has taken a hit recently based on the fact that the bulk of its current oil and gas production comes from Argentina – but longer term that could present a buying opportunity...
I’ve always been a fan of Parkmead Group (PMG), but after the last couple of RNSs there have been for this company, I can’t help wondering if my faith in it to succeed may have been misplaced.
BP (BP.) has announced 2019 second quarter results, emphasising “continuing to deliver strong performance and strategic progress”…
Questions have to be asked when a company produces a headline rate from a well test; the CEO goes on an interview road trips talking about how much free cash flow will be generated; £12 million is raised via an equity issue – and then subsequently initial production rates are just a third of what investors were expecting!
RockRose Energy (RRE) has been one of the real success stories amongst smaller oil and gas producing companies in recent times and has grown its business at an incredible rate via a number of acquisitions. It has come an awful long way since I first covered it as a buy here back in April 2018 at around the 350p level, and today it relisted following a deal which constituted a reverse takeover of the Marathon UK and Marathon West of Shetland assets for $140 million. Currently it is trading at around the 1,900p level with a market cap of circa £240 million, representing a profit of nearly 450% for anyone who followed my original buy recommendation...
Hardy Oil and Gas (HDY) has been getting a bit of attention recently with news of a deal to sell all of its assets, which was then followed by a higher priced bid from another party.
There is often an argument for letting your winners continue to run, but in the case of many natural resource stocks listed on AIM you are often better off taking a healthy profit whilst it is on offer.
Hello Share Twiddlers. While I still have my biggest investment in giant oilers, I've got a sneaking suspicion that I ought to put more cash into a few tiddlers. This is not an easy thing for me to say, as my past small oil plays have nearly always ended in tears including a few dallies with the Falkland Islands...
A couple of weeks ago I covered Sound Energy (SOU) and its recent disappointing drill results which appeared to cement its fall from grace as a favourite amongst private investors. At the time the share price was around 8.7p and I mentioned the fact that some of the placees from the recent equity fundraising of $2.7 million net at 10p would likely be looking to try and create a spike to sell into. Since then I have seen all sorts of rumours on social media, including one that a single shareholder took £3 million of placing shares – which is more than were actually issued!
Earlier, I reviewed the SDX Energy (SDX) Morocco gas operation and concluded it’s got some serious issues. But what about Egypt and that oil production? And that great future in South Disouq? Well I’m not sure it get much better in Egypt. This is a SELL and run for the hills and don’t look back in my book.
Until recently SDX Energy (SDX) looked in great shape with Egypt oil and Morocco high margin gas following the Circle Oil deal and South Disouq gas production due on stream. Then seemingly out of the blue, on 17th May, we were told that the CEO is taking a long walk from a short plank, production forecasts were cut and projects delayed. What happened? I think I can see the answer, and why it could be a while before things change.
TomCo Energy (TOM) seems to have become very popular all of a sudden with the share price almost doubling in the last few days.
Private investors seem to love the boom or bust scenario that applies to many of the exploration drills for oil and gas, but is it really worth taking the risk on these types of plays?
When’s an oil field potentially not an oil field? Simple in my view – ask UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) to become the operator and see what else you can do with the “asset”! I reviewed in Part 1 my views on the current extended well testing and what I concluded that meant to the investment case, but now I turn to some of the issues I found on review of the planning application seeking consent for continuous production.
Sound Energy (SOU) has proved to be a great example of why private investors shouldn’t get too far ahead of themselves and start ordering a new Ferrari, based purely on early results in any company drilling for oil and gas.
As is so often the case with oil and gas drills amongst the smaller companies, private investors built expectations around West Newton up to such a level that the actual results were never likely to live up to that.
When is a net profit not really a profit? When it is being announced by Prospex Oil and Gas (PXOG) would appear to be one answer to that question!
As long as you are prepared to accept a degree of geo-political risk, then I find it very hard not to like Genel Energy (GENL) at the current share price.
Smaller North Sea oil and gas companies seem to be out of favour, as investors go chasing big profits in riskier, less proven parts of the world, but more often than not the outcome tends to be heavy losses on these types of outfits.
Coro Energy (CORO) was my pick this year during the Dragon’s Den session I was involved in at the UK Investor Show, and I also hold a small position here myself from around the current share price. Like many smaller companies in the oil and gas sector, it is an investment that I class as being speculative, hence not risking huge amounts of money in it at this stage – but there is also a lot of potential upside...
I’m sure some investors must have wondered what the directors of AIM listed oil and gas outfit Highlands Natural Resources (HNR) had been smoking when they announced yesterday that they were diversifying into cannabis!
If there were any prizes for being the worst performing company at the lower end of the market, then Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) would definitely be up there as one of the contenders.
Lots of private investors talk about ‘investing’ in oil and gas exploration plays, but in most cases I would argue that ‘gambling’ is a far more suitable description and has a similar outcome, with the majority ending up losing money.
SDX Energy (SDX) seems to be one of those AIM natural resources companies that has largely been forgotten about by private investors, but it has an awful lot going on over the coming 12 months, and beyond, and if even some of what it has scheduled goes to plan, then I would expect the shares to trade a lot higher...
Whilst InfraStrata (INFA) is considered to operate in the oil and gas sector it is very different to most other companies, as rather than looking to extract hydrocarbons, it is intent on putting them back into the ground.
For junior resource companies which aren’t actually producing anything yet, larger movements in the share price are usually dictated by newsflow relating to the operational side of things, rather than by fluctuations in commodity prices. Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) has gone through a period where not a lot has been happening drilling-wise, and as a result it has seen its share price bouncing around within a fairly tight range for this sort of stock...
Anglo African Oil and Gas (AAOG) has been hugely popular with private investors over the past few months and has seen big fluctuations in its share price as various pieces of news landed during its recent drill – including a placing to raise more money which Tom Winnifrith exclusively revealed here before it took place.
Hello Share Riddlers. Many of us still invest in oil giants. This is often because of the juicy dividends they pay, while staying fairly secure as reliable cash earners. I think most of us expect that Brent crude will keep rising in value. Yes, there was a nasty fall a few months ago, but the price is making what appears to be a sustained rally now. It’s the oil price which has brought the main oilers fatter profits lately.
Hello, Share Grabbers. Well, the New Year has bumped off to a decent start after a disastrous end to 2018. All the fears about a no-deal Brexit seem to have been priced in now. And some better news about the affair should send shares upwards fast. But, of course, some companies will continue to do better than others...
Over the years I’ve been a fan of Ophir Energy (OPHR), but it is one that I have got completely wrong and during that time it has done nothing other than to disappoint investors, whilst its value has steadily been eroded.
These days I tend to avoid oil companies at the bottom end of the AIM market as usually the risks aren’t worth the rewards, and the majority of them do nothing but fleece investors over a number of years without ever achieving anything of note.
Sound energy (SOU) is a company that I’ve been negative on in the past, and justifiably so considering its recent fall from grace as one of the most popular shares amongst private investors.
Premier Oil (PMO) has always been highly geared towards movements in the oil price, so it is hardly surprising that its share price has been dropping recently.
Hello Share Squishers. There are some shares which you think you can leave to their own devices. And when you have as many firms as I have in a bulging portfolio, it’s nice to have a few shares which require low maintenance.
The markets are starting to show signs of weakness and although we are yet to see any major downwards correction, it is starting to look more likely that we will get one.
Sometimes it is hard to fathom why a company with strong fundamentals continues to be unloved by the market, and for me that is very much the case with SOCO International (SIA) at the moment, and has been for some time now. Lately the share price has slipped and is now trading at around the 88p level, and whilst it has bounced around 10% from the recent low of 80p that we saw, it still seems incredibly cheap at a market cap of just over £300 million, especially when you consider the current strength in oil prices.
Half-year results from Rose Petroleum (ROSE) saw it concluding “the board is looking ahead with confidence and is excited about the group moving from being an oil explorer to an oil producer in the next quarter”. The shares responded higher, but at still little more than a £5 million market cap we see much more excitement to come…
In Africa things always tend to take far longer than people expect, and even more so when it comes to anything in the natural resources sector. Interest in, and the share price of, Tlou Energy (TLOU) seems to have waned and I think that has largely been as a result of some having far too optimistic timescales with regards to the company’s coal bed methane project at Lesedi, in Botswana.
With oil prices remaining buoyant and this trend looking likely to continue going forwards, there are still plenty of opportunities to invest in companies in this sector.
Andalas Energy (ADL) has undergone a change of management and has also switched its asset focus in an attempt to turn things around from the disaster it has been ever since it changed its name from CEB Resources back in late 2015.
Regular readers of ShareProphets will know that I am usually very wary of any natural resources company that isn’t actually producing anything, especially if they are valued in the hundreds of millions.
The only real surprise with the RNS that was issued by Nu-Oil (NUOG) this morning was that investors were actually surprised that there had been further delays to the farm-out process and completion of the work at its well in Newfoundland!
Often at the lower end of the oil and gas sector private investors get fixated with taking gambles on drills with large prospective resources and dream of untold riches if the company gets lucky with the drill bit, but the reality is that in the majority of cases this will result in a duster and substantial losses.
Over the years the one area of growth where Range Resources (RRL) has really excelled has been the number of shares in issue, with 8.5 billion of them now trading following the latest placing. The oil and gas company, which has interests in Trinidad and Indonesia, announced last week that it has completed yet another placing, and this time it raised £1 million at a share price of 0.11p.
Hello Share Shiners. The Yorkshire saying 'Where's there's muck, there's brass' can be usefully modified in Shareland. We can change it to 'Where there's a boring product, there's brass'. So often, the best performers in my bag are as humdrum as a wet Monday afternoon.
These days it often seems to be the case that if you are interested in a new IPO, it is better to wait until that company has listed and the dust has settled, as often you will get a chance to buy in cheaper than those taking part in the initial fundraise. Block Energy (BLOE) looks to be one such outfit and the timing of its listing looks good, with the oil sector showing strength, plus there is plenty of potential from gas as well.
Oil exploration is very different to the boom we had back in 2010 in terms of the share price movements that we see for companies that are engaged in drilling.
Regal Petroleum (RPT) has seen a huge increase in its share price during the past year, and I know that always makes some investors wary, but a lot has changed during that time, both for the company itself and the area in which it operates.
Often when a smaller AIM company operating in the natural resources sector announces a placing it ends up being bad news for those currently invested, but there are also cases where the money is being sought in order to accelerate operations. Of course, the company still ultimately needs to deliver and for the work that the money is being raised for to be successful, but I would certainly rather see this than a company that is sitting around doing nothing and burning through cash whilst its directors pocket a nice salary.
I’m surprised by the seeming lack of interest amongst private investors when it comes to RockRose Energy (RRE), as even amongst those who focus on oil and gas stocks, this isn’t a company which you see being mentioned on social media and the bulletin boards.
I previously covered AIM-listed Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) with reference to an after-hours warning issued after market close, but during the auction. It looked terrible, but there were mitigating factors which looked to have combined in an unfortunate fashion. This morning Victoria has issued a Q1 trading update. It is not pretty, but I have to take my hat off to the company this morning, for it gives full numbers and investors can make a rational decision.
Serica Energy (SQZ) has been one of my best performing share tips ever, but following recent developments now would seem to be a good time to bank some profit, if you haven’t already done so.
Some positive sentiment finally seems to be returning to UK offshore oil and gas companies, and Cluff Natural Resources (CLNR) could be in a position to benefit from that. Things have been pretty dire for the North Sea focused company, and although its assets revolve around gas, which has performed badly in comparison to oil of late, any renewed interest in the area should be of benefit.
Ascent Resources (AST) has hardly exactly lived up to its name in recent times, as it has been on a steady downwards trajectory for some time now. There's now been an RNS advising of a strategic review and a formal sale process for the company being initiated. Given its situation, I certainly wasn’t expecting the market to take the news particularly well - but the share price rocketed and even as I write this, it is currently 1.1p to buy - up more than 22% on the prior close.
Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) hasn’t had much luck in the past, having managed to get a decent sized field into production it was subsequently hammered by the collapse in the oil price.
Hello Share Shiverers. At the risk of over-simplifying matters, it’s time to winkle out companies who’ll benefit from the icy weather. Some of the choices are obvious, but that’s no reason not to remind you of a few opportunities. And you’ll be surprised how very temporary events - like the current cold snap - can influence share prices. Though the effect is usually confined to a week at the most.
Nu-Oil and Gas (NUOG) seems to be one of those AIM shares which periodically finds favour with private investors, despite never actually having achieved anything of note other than burning through investors cash over the years.
When SOCO International (SIA) announced a possible merger the market seemed to take the news well, but ever since then the share price has been on the slide and it looks like this could be a good buying opportunity.
I can understand why longer term investors in Parkmead Group (PMG) may be somewhat unimpressed with the performance of the share price recently, but the company itself is continuing to make good progress. I hold shares in the company myself, and whilst the share price has generally been trading in the mid-30p to low-40p range, in spite of the strength that the oil price has been showing in recent months, I’m happy to remain invested and see how things unfold in the coming months and years.
Whenever a relatively small oil and gas company manages to raise a substantial amount of money it gets my attention, especially when you consider what the market has been like for this sector in recent times.
Andrew Monk of VSA is (belatedly) starting his 2018 this week with a seroes of sector reviews. In this one he looks at where oil is heading, at the majors and then concludes with the five oil juniors to buy. Over to the Monkey...
Given that I have closely followed the Serica Energy (SQZ) story here closely over the last few years, and in light of the news this week, I felt that I should give my current thoughts on it.
Whilst many private investors go chasing rainbows and hoping for one of their oil and gas exploration plays to hit black gold, there are actually a number of AIM listed outfits which are already producing, yet don’t seem to be as popular as they are unlikely to generate large share price rises overnight.
As an investor who has always been a big fan of oil and gas plays in general it is difficult not to focus on that particular sector at the moment, given the recovery that we have been seeing there. Some people may argue that the move has already happened and that oil prices might not go much above the $64 level that we have hit this week, and could well finish the year a fair bit lower – certainly somewhere in the high 50s wouldn’t surprise me, although a lot will revolve around the outcome of the OPEC meeting at the end of the month. Whilst that may be the case with the commodity itself, when it comes to equities many have lagged this commodity correction, and given the share price action of some of them, you could be forgiven for thinking that oil was still down in the doldrums and completely unloved.
Several of the once really popular oil and gas companies seem to have almost have been forgotten by investors, as progress has been far slower than had originally been expected and people have gone off seeking riches elsewhere.
Often the valuation of resource companies on the AIM market seems to revolve more around how popular they are amongst private investors, than having much to do with the progress that they have made, and how well they are likely to do in the future.
I’m always wary of companies that have seen a large hike in share price, especially smaller ones in the natural resources sector, but in some cases the rise would appear to be justified by recent news.
Any new IPO in the natural resources sector tends to grab my attention, and whilst there are plenty of them where I wouldn’t even consider investing my money, occasionally one comes along which looks to have a bit more potential. That would appear to be the case with Curzon Energy (CZN).
When it comes to the AIM resources sector, any sort of delay or news which is perceived to be negative can have a negative effect on the share price which is far from justified. Of course there is a lot of junk on the market and when bad news comes and it inevitably crashes, it is of no real surprise, but there are other companies where a temporary hit to the share price can present a great buying opportunity.
Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) is a company that I have followed for a while now and recently I have noticed it getting a fair bit of attention again – certainly as much as we’ve seen since the failed drill in Liberia back in late 2016.
Delays to the Kraken field reaching full production levels could prove costly for EnQuest (ENQ), as it will leave a large gap in expected revenues up until that point.
Ophir Energy (OPHR) has made far slower progress than many could have imagined a few years back, but the oil and gas fields which attracted many in the first place are still there, and the chances of them being developed still look very good.
With I having questioned in March 2:15pm ‘Interim Management Statement’ a cause for alarm?, mechanical and refractory engineering company Goodwin (GDWN) has now announced results for its year ended 30th April 2017…
Usually it takes far longer for companies to move forwards operationally than the majority of investors expect, and it is at times when most people have become bored and moved on elsewhere, that opportunities can present themselves.
Nu-Oil and Gas (NUOG) is all the rage at the moment amongst PIs, but I’m finding it hard to get quite so excited about its prospects and am getting a feeling of déjà vu when I look back at some of the old Enegi Oil announcements.
I tipped shares in Saffron Energy (SRON) but urged folks to take profits some months ago. The shares were then 8p+ having listed at 5p. In recent weeks the shares have slithered back towards that 5p and I have been urged by folks to re-tip. I resisted that urge. Something was wrong. Now we all know what some folks have clearly known for a while, what the problem is.
Private investors often seem to have very short memories, and although many have previously been badly burned by putting money into Mosman Oil and Gas (MSMN), some were flocking back into the company again today, sending its share price rocketing.
Vedanta Resources (VED) was one of my best performing shares during 2016, and after a significant pullback in the share price in recent months it is well worth considering buying back in at current levels.
There suddenly seems to be a lot of excitement all over twitter and the bulletin boards about a tiny AIM shell called Infinity Energy SA (INFT) – but of course that wouldn’t have anything at all to do with the recent placing and placees looking to offload for a quick profit!
I’ve been bearish on the valuation of Sound Energy (SOU) for a while now, and nothing in the updates this week on Tendrara or its final results have changed that opinion. Don’t get me wrong, I can certainly see potential in this company, and it has done well to turn things around and get to where it is currently, but I still think that it is crazy that it is trading at a market cap of well over £500 million at this point in time.
TLOU Energy (TLOU) was once one of those AIM companies that was hugely popular with PIs and was attracting a lot of attention and hype. Now that has now subsided, I can see real potential with this company going forward given the track record of those who are running it.
Previously writing on engineering company Goodwin (GDWN) in September with the shares at 1980p, I concluded that the energy industry environment saw me cautious and avoiding the shares. They were little changed on the prior 1895p close before an “Interim Management Statement” announcement at 2:15pm. A cause for alarm?...
Premier Oil (PMO) is a company that I have been bearish on so far in 2017, but it has now reached a level where I would consider changing my stance to a buy, or at the very least one to watch closely for when the recent trend changes direction and it starts to bounce.
Hello Share Spikers. I do like a firm with a novel idea which seems to have potential. It makes share-shifting a lot more exciting when we can find a company which offers a different kind of service which seems to work. I refer you today to Inspired Energy (INSE).
Northbridge Industrial Services (NBI) is “pleased to issue” a trading update for the 2016 calendar year, yet the shares have responded more than 8% lower to 123.5p. Hmmm...
The market doesn’t like uncertainty, and that is why Premier Oil (PMO) has been continuing to under-perform in comparison to some of its peers in the oil and gas producing sector in terms of the share price.
Hello Share Pagers. The results of Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) were not too clever. Profits down by another 37% on last time. But remember how lousy the price of Brent Crude is at the moment.
With its shares down more than 11% on Tuesday and further more than 12% on Wednesday morning, cue a 1:48pm “Trading Update” announcement from Plexus Holdings (POS). And you’ll never guess what (you will)…
The last couple of years have been a torrid time for those holding shares in small oil and gas exploration companies in general, with very few exceptions.
Previously writing on another ludicrous results statement from Nature Group (NGR), I noted ‘we’ll see on the loss-making Gibraltar entity (“held for sale” net assets on the balance sheet £0.79 million)’. Today there is a “Sale of Gibraltar Operations” announcement, though which also includes a trading update…
Valuing small resource companies can be difficult, and often they will appear to be far cheaper than they really are. The bulletin boards, Twitter, etc are full of people extolling the virtues of the companies that they are invested in and pointing out that they should be worth far more than what the share price currently reflects.
Hello Share Splodgers. Have you considered buying shares in Petrofac (PFC)? It’s one of the world’s biggest providers of infrastructure, including buildings and equipment to the oil and gas world.
Shares in oil and gas engineering services company Plexus (POS) are currently more than 12.5% higher, at 73p, on the back of an “AGM Statement” which argues “with a strengthened balance sheet, a large wellhead inventory, an expanded suite of Plexus products, partners in strategically important territories, and a successful track record with a who's who of blue chip operators, Plexus is in a strong position to take advantage of and benefit from the next cyclical upswing”. Hmmm…
Shares in Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) have performed brilliantly since I tipped them as a buy, but I would now be looking to bank at least some of that profit in the near future.
Even with all of the other craziness in the markets, the ridiculous share price rise in Mosman Oil and Gas (MSMN) still managed to stand out!
Oil still has a long way to go before it is at a healthy level for many oil companies, but the recent rise back above $50 a barrel certainly seems to be creating some interest in the sector, at least for the time being.
Hello Share Squeezers. I’ve been having fun lately trying to get cheaper car insurance. You know how it is - the renewal quote is always a heck of a lot more than your current policy. Though they always forget to remind you what you first paid.
In my humble view, now could be a good time to return to oil shares. I certainly hope so, as I have lost a packet since the big oil crash which began a few years ago. I’ve gradually dumped my holdings in the hopeful explorers, but I still have major holdings in the big producers, like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), BP (BP.) and Tullow (TLW). All of them are well shy of their previous bests.
Hello Share Screamers. It's quite a few years back now that I made a juicy packet out of my Centrica (CNA) shares, first bought in a government share-buy scheme. Seems centuries since we had those tempting offers, doesn’t it? Ever since I sold those shares, I can report that they have not done particularly well. The big problem with Centrica (CNA), which trades as British Gas, is the growing competition.
Following an absolutely ludicrous results statement previously, Nature Group (NGR) is “pleased to announce the unaudited interim results for the six months to 30 June 2016”. The shares are currently approaching 8% lower, at 4.375p, in response. Is the company at it again? …
Following Sepura, the intra-day profit disappointment continued (although to a much lesser degree) with a 2:40pm announcement from engineering company Goodwin (GDWN) – this including notice of a current year first quarter (to 31st July) pre-tax profit down £0.75 million from the corresponding 2015 period, to £3.05 million...
Having slid back towards 12p following a June announcement of results for its year ended 31st March 2016, shares in oilfield services technology and equipment supplier, Enteq Upstream (NTQ) are currently steady at 16p on the back of an “AGM Statement” announcement, which includes an update on current conditions in the industry…
Earlier this week Solo Oil (SOLO) announced quite startling news - that it was to lapse an option to buy an additional 1.25% stake in the Kiliwani gas field a deal first announced back in February of this year. This leaves Solo's stake at 7.125% but begs very serious questions of Neil Ritson's floundering company. Is bankruptcy looming and is Kiliwani not living up to the hype?
“Braemar Shipping Services plc (BMS) provides the following trading update, further to our AGM Trading Update on 30 June 2016”. Not ‘pleased to provide’, just “provides”, Uh-oh...
Having initially warned of further downside risk with the shares at 166p HERE, I note shares in Pressure Technologies (PRES) are currently more than 11% lower today, at 140p, on the back of an “Update on Recent Trading”…
One of the biggest red flags of a company being ridiculously over-priced is its directors selling shares, and that certainly looks to be the case with Sound Energy (SOU) following its after hours RNS!
You would have thought I had learnt my lesson on the temporary power market following the disastrous APR Energy ‘excitements’ of a year plus ago. Perhaps I feel emboldened because the ultimate takeover of the company by a do-gooding consortium bailed me out on the name and added a touch of profit to boot. Alternatively I feel a touch of unfinished business on Aggreko (AGK) after calling the stock interesting when it exited the FTSE-100 fifteen months ago and it has quietly been one of the stars of my portfolio year-to-date. At least until today.