EnQuest (ENQ) has just released its results for 2021 and the market didn’t seem to like them, judging by the reaction of the share price, which I find surprising as I think they actually made pretty good reading.
IGas Energy (IGAS) has been performing well recently in terms of the share price, but following the latest trading and reserves update it has taken a bit of a hit and pulled back more than 14%.
Pharos Energy (PHAR) has been a terrible investment for anyone who has held longer term – including myself – and even more so from the days when it was called Soco International (SIA), but I still believe that it can turn things around.
Kosmos Energy (KOS) has to be one of the most under-rated oil companies listed in the UK, but I think that people that overlook it in favour of some of the more popular producers are wrong to do so.
Currently a lot of private investors seem to be looking around the oil and gas sector for the most bombed out stocks that they can find, in the belief that these will offer the most upside on commodity prices eventually recovering. The big problem with that though is that if commodity prices do stay fairly low for a prolonged period of time, as seems likely given expected demand levels even when things do start to recover plus the huge amount of oil sat in storage currently, then some of these companies may never actually recover...
One aspect of the recent oil price crash which fascinates me, and which I’ve seen very little written about, is hedging. There has of course been plenty made of the fact that some companies, or even countries, have at least part of their future production hedged at much higher prices than the current level. But what I haven’t seen mentioned is the potential impact on those who are on the other side of these hedges...
AIM-listed Yu Group (YU.) has delivered its FY19 results – this despite claiming it would defer them in line with the FCA’s moratorium (which did not apply to AIM companies)! CEO Bobby Kalar was pleased with the positive results so far as the company recovers from an accounting scandal but I’m not so sure that shareholders should be.
I wouldn’t be rushing to buy shares in any companies at the moment, and probably even less so in anything natural resources related, unless you are prepared to take a fair amount of risk and have a very long-term time frame. The safest option is to just sit on cash and wait for not only the markets, but also the world economy, to turn around whenever we do finally see the back of this virus. You won’t get to buy in at the bottom if you wait for the trend to change, but you shouldn’t also suddenly find that the shares you bought are now another 50% lower! However...
AIM-listed Yu Group (YU.) released an update this morning detailing in part a new hedging facility with SmartestEnergy Limited. On the face of it, it is good news but I rather suspect that when the dust settles it will be seen as not so good. As ever, on AIM, it is not what is said that matters: it is what is unsaid.
AIM-listed Cloudbuy (CBUY) released its FY18 results this week and they were truly awful. The company remains dependent on future improvements in trading performance and/or its ability to raise additional finance, in order for it to continue operating for the foreseeable future, revenues are still falling, cashflow (apart from Mr Sella’s loan) is still solidly negative and profits came in at minus £2.2 million. It is grim reading indeed.
Premier Oil (PMO) has always been highly geared towards movements in the oil price, so it is hardly surprising that its share price has been dropping recently.
Serica Energy (SQZ) has been one of my best performing share tips ever, but following recent developments now would seem to be a good time to bank some profit, if you haven’t already done so.
Given that I have closely followed the Serica Energy (SQZ) story here closely over the last few years, and in light of the news this week, I felt that I should give my current thoughts on it.
Like many producers, Premier Oil (PMO) has been struggling with debt since the oil price crashed a few years back. Some have managed to refinance the debt on their balance sheets, but for Premier the process has been dragging on for far longer than many expected and hasn’t exactly helped sentiment surrounding the company. Following today’s update though it looks as though that is finally about to be resolved.
Looking at the performance of many oil producers over the past few months you could easily be forgiven for thinking that their problems are over and all is rosy within the sector once more.
The oil price is on its knees, but I think we’re very close to being at a stage where its time to start buying oil producers for the longer term. The trick is going to be picking those that are strong enough to survive in the current climate, and avoiding those that could get into serious trouble with their debt.
Oil producers have had a terrible year, but I think there could be more of the same to come and we will see some more casualties. Unfortunately oil is one of my favourite sectors and it has performed abysmally over the past 12 months or so, thanks to the crash in oil prices, with WTI currently sitting at around the $40 area, and Brent at circa $43.