Hello Share Carriers. Oil jumbo Shell (SHEL) remains one of the few shares still left in my bag after a dash to cash a month or so ago. That’s because the bubbly oil price can only translate into bigger profits for the black stuff boys. Net profit for the third quarter was 26% higher than last time at $11.5 billion, thanks to those chirpy oil prices and post Covid demand.
Hello Share People. Though I’ve gone largely to cash, fearing a recession, I still have a toe hold in some companies. A few of those are in the oil game, because it’s hard to see how they might fail given prevailing circumstances. It’s this old punter’s view that big oilers are still undervalued. Let’s look at the evidence.
Hello Share Trekkers. As Mr Rising Price is really beginning to bite now, it’s timely to look at ways people are cutting their spending. Because increased economising will obviously affect the profits, and hence the share prices, of some companies. But not others. Here are some sectors which you might want to avoid, at least pro tem.
Hello Shares Fans. Let’s take the opportunity, with markets closed, to review the situation surrounding the oil price and our opportunities to make money with the big, and not so big, oilers. In the last few days of trading, shares in Shell (SHEL), BP (BP.) and the like dropped. But the reason is lightweight and temporary.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that it still expects 2022 average production to increase to 15,500-18,500 boe/d. So what of a share price slipping to 101p in response?
Hello Share Mates. This week I’ve reviewed Shell (SHEL) and Tullow (TLW) in the oil game. Today let’s take a gander at another likely contender to continue growing its share price: the mighty BP (BP.).
Hello Share Scrapers. This old punter once nearly sold his Tullow Oil (TLW) shares by mistake. The price then was around £6, so I wish I had done. That’s because today’s price is around 54p. Never mind, it was a long time ago. And I think the huge rise in the oil price hasn’t galvanised Tullow’s share price as much as it should have done. Mayhap it has some catching up to do. Also, Tullow looks like becoming bigger as it plans to merge with Capricorn Energy (CNE), formerly Cairn Energy, a British explorer and producer of oil and gas.
Hello Share Munchers. If you’d followed my suggestion to buy Shell (SHEL) shares, over the last six months you would be up by more than 40%. But of course I cannot claim too much credit for this boost as the likelihood that the share price would soar was pretty obvious on record oil prices. But is Shell still worth buying now?
Hello Share Followers. We all know big oil companies are on a roll. But a reasonable way to take a sideways punt on the sector is to look at outfits that supply the oil trade. A company that might be worth keeping an eye on is Hunting (HTG). This firm makes and supplies engineering gear for the industry.
Hello Share Splurgers. It’s my humble view that anyone holding shares in companies which actually produce oil, rather than just look for it, should not sell. Not while the oil price holds up. Oil has not been valued quite so highly recently. But I think it’s probably only taking a breather before it jets off to new highs.
Hello Share Takers. The case for buying into the big British oilers continues to grow and yet their share prices are still well below what many analysts think they should be. The oil price retreated in recent days, but is now on the march north again.
Hello Share Gatherers. Like many smarter investors, I tend to take the targets of big banks and brokers with a pinch of salt. But occasionally when they come together in their findings, I look a bit harder. And in the case of Shell (SHEL) the analysts certainly agree with each other. They all seem jolly enthusiastic.
Hello Share Hunters. I don’t know about you, but I feel totally on edge and sad at the mo. I’ m not sure whether its the madness in Ukraine or that my share portfolio is well down in value. I hope, for the sake of my humanity, that it’s the former. And I think it is. Because as I’ve argued before the Footsie often soars when the initial shocks of war are out of the way. Ordinary share owners can’t do anything to make Putin stop. But we can minimise any damage to our portfolios.
The gardening photos from the Welsh hovel will appear later on my own site. Before then I review the 4 retail stocks of the Lucian Miers apocalypse: Versarien (VRS), Supply@ME Capital (SYME), Eurasia (EUR) and Chill Brands (CHLL) and then my 10 stocks to collapse by Christmas. One has fallen so far it is probably not a short now though I would not buy it while three look set to go to zero, possibly as soon as next week in one case. My 10 are Supply, Chill Brands, Versarien, Avacta (AVCT), Wildcat Petroleum (WCAT), Amigo (AMGO), Cineworld (CINE), Argo Blockchain (ARB), Verditek (VDTK) and Tern (TERN). I also look at the oil price and consider whether those sitting on gains might bank a few profits.
Hello Share Stripers. As predicted, British shares tumbled on the outbreak of the sad war in Ukraine. But as the war progresses, history suggests initial falls will be followed by gains. However, the time frame for a turnaround is unknown. And there’ll always be individual shares that will fall and rise more than others. Putin’s war could still diminish some shares, even as the majority of stocks start to recover. So what sectors are most vulnerable?
Hello Share Swashers. As I write, the price of Brent crude is $112 a barrel. The highest price ever I recall was about $158 and that was 2008. So there’s certainly room for the price to become loftier yet.
I start with events in Ukraine and possible peace and where that leaves some Russian owned stocks. Then I turn to Ncondezi (NCCL) and then a detailed explanation of why today’s Versarien (VRS) analysis matters but also why the cash crunch is coming far sooner than most morons realise and the next bailout for the loathsome Ricketts will not be pretty. And then I ask where next for gold and oil prices and stocks?
Jadestone Energy (JSE) states that it “is pleased to provide its guidance outlook for 2022”, including noting that it expects to generate material incremental cash at current oil prices and premiums and may consider an increase in shareholder returns through increased dividends and/or share buy-backs later in the year. Sounds good.
Hello Share Shooters. The news led the bulletins everywhere – BP (BP.) had made a monster profit of £9.5 billion. Now I opined a few months back that once the results were out for the big oilers, the share prices should shoot ahead. Yet on the first day of BP’s good news for shareholders, the shares started well, but then slipped. Why should this be and should we be worried?
This has been a very good share tip for our readers but there is more to come. Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced that “2021 production averaged 12,545 boe/d, in line with expectations” and “cash balances at the end of the year are estimated at US$117.4 million, representing an increase of 30% year-on-year, even after the largest spending programme in the company’s history”. This sounds encouraging.
Hello Share Chasers. We must never underestimate the power of oil prices to influence stock markets all over the world. If the Footsie drops, it’s almost guaranteed that oil will be on the back foot, too. This old punter monitors fluctuations of Brent Crude much more closely than he does the Footsie.
Hello Share Swingers. This old punter has been of the opinion for many months now that Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) is undervalued. This is based on oil and gas prices going through the roof. Brent Crude continues to rise with more big jumps this week and I agree with Tom when he says fuel prices will continue to soar this year.
I hope you have a Happy New Year’s Eve. I aim to be in bed by 8 PM. Bah Humbug. In today’s podcast I look at URU Metals (URU), Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP), Path Investments (PATH), Kore Potash (K2P) and the fraud Supply@ME Capital (SYME) and today’s red flag dripping trading statement. I also explain why I expect the oil price to go higher over the coming year.
Hello, Share Twiddlers. As this venerable old punter has occasionally recommended Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) on this dazzling website, I’m cheered by some interesting news at the weekend. Shareholders voted to move its headquarters from Holland to London. As shareholders will enjoy some jolly benefits from the move, the result was never much in doubt.
Hello, Share Swingers. Allow me to update one of my recommendations I think is particularly promising. That is the conviction that shares in the big oilers, like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.) are undervalued. More evidence has come my way that some big hitters in the City agree with me.
Pharos Energy (PHAR) has announced completion of an infill development drilling programme in TGT field, Vietnam, noting “all four wells testing at rates in line with or ahead of pre-drill expectations” but also that a compressor issue is being investigated. So what’s the net result?
Hello, Share Tooters. This ancient punter has written recently on how Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.) shares may be undervalued on the strength of a soaring oil price. And the same could be said of smaller producers, like Tullow Oil (TLW).
Hello, Share Takers. Shares in big oilers, like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and BP (BP.), stay subdued. Even though the price of Brent Crude is consistently robust, hovering just below its recent highs of $85 a barrel. As results statements for these giants start to reflect the lofty oil price, I suggest a buying opportunity.
Hello, Share Johnnies. News that the COP 26 get-together in Glasgow has backed Mark Carney’s plan to make banks and big investors avoid dirty fuels, understandably sent shares down in the likes of BP (BP.) and Shell (RDSA). But not by as much as you might think. And that’s probably because the high price of Brent crude means big oilers will announce juicy profits when they next report.
Hello, Share Shakers. Nobody ever said the stock markets follow logical paths. And nothing demonstrates this fact more than the current share prices of the oil majors, and even the oil minors. Yes, shares in the ebony nectar rose strongly on the mounting oil price. But now, though the value of Brent crude continues to lift, many oil shares are stuck.
The oil price is panning out largely as I expected when I last drafted on this matter back in March. We are now at $84 as I type, compared to the $67 when I last commented. I saw a high probability of $100 by year end, and so far, I see little to change my mind. Oil and Gas equity prices lag the commodity prices, and oil lags gas. I see real opportunity here, but not without some downside risk.
To say that I am cross by today’s turn of events would be an understatement. Hence this podcast is short and late and somewhat bad tempered. It covers Asos (ASC), Anglo African (AAAP), Tirupati Graphite (TGR), and Orcadian (ORCA) with another comment on the oil price and oil shares.
Hello, Share Tweakers. You don’t have to be an Einstein to guess that share prices for oil companies should keep on rising, at least for a bit. Myself and more able analysts have commended Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.) recently but there are other experienced producers around and Tullow Oil (TLW) looks to have been rather overlooked by the City.
Hello, Share Mashers. Gas prices rose by 37% in one session earlier this week. Imagine how that should raise the profits of BP (BP.) as it is also an explorer, producer and seller of liquid gas. And yet the price of BP shares actually dipped by 2.5% on Wednesday. They’re up again as I write, but, in the circumstances, you might think the shares would be soaring. I may be missing something, but after a great deal of searching, I can’t imagine what that might be.
Following half-year results from Jadestone Energy (JSE) recently, we noted the financial improvement despite challenges and that with the growth potential suggested the 77p share price too harsh an appraisal. There is now a “Montara H6 well successfully brought onstream”-titled announcement and the shares are further higher.
Hello, Share Folks. As I write, the oil price has reached the giddy height of $75 a barrel. Last November it was only about $20. The current high level is a main cause of inflation in Blighty. And inflation is the enemy of share prices everywhere. However, there is one sector which benefits most from a lofty oil price. And that of course is the one comprising big oil producers like BP (BP.) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA). So why have the share values of these giants only been treading water for the last few months?
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced its results for the first half of 2021, reaffirming full-year production guidance of 11,500-13,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and anticipating 20,000 boe/d towards the end of the year. We are well up on this 69p offer price share tip but where do we go from here?
Hello Share Finders. This old punter doesn’t often discuss Tullow Oil (TLW). This is because it’s lost me money since I bought about 10 years ago, and it’s only been treading water for quite some time. However the share price just shot up on a six months results report just out. The reasons for the rise look convincing.
Trinidad and Tobago oil and gas explorer Touchstone (TXP) has made a second quarter operational and financial update, including emphasising it is confident its funding capacity together with operations are sufficient to complete a budgeted four well development program as well as drilling Royston-1, one of a number of milestones it forecasts to achieve in the second half of the year.
BP (BP.) has announced second quarter of the year results emphasising “generating value for our shareholders today while we transition the company for the future”. Sounds good, but what’s the detail?
Hello, Share Seekers. I rather hesitate to raise this again. I’ve already written about it recently, but I really do think the case can be made for quite a substantial rise in the shares of oil giants like Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.). For some reason, which escapes me, the share values of these jumbos remain low compared to a couple of years ago. And yet the price of Brent Crude, on which oilers rely for profits, continues to soar.
Hello, Share Presenters. With the markets closed, and rather static anyway, I take the opportunity to warn of a common pitfall I still fall into. Unlike most of my co-writers, my main strategy is to try to make educated predictions about the future, rather than rely on balance sheets which reflect the past. One of the main tools of this policy is to assess global trends.
EnQuest (ENQ) has announced a proposed issuance of equity “in line with the announcement on 4 February 2021”. So what was that announcement and what is the proposed equity issuance and its impact?
And that means only one thing for oil prices
Hello, Share Scrapers. The oil price is going through the roof. Not the $120 a barrel that it once reached, but well above the $70 mark now. That won’t please motorists, but it should certainly cheer share shifters like us. A rising oil price usually means a similarly-inclined Footsie, but for holders of big oil shares it’s even better news.
No doubt this will be deemed misogyny, but Cathie is one hell of a dumb bint. She is the fund manager who reckons, based on piss poor analysis, that Tesla (TSLA) is worth $3000 and it is by far the biggest holding in her Ark Fund which you can and should short aggressively. Her fund also holds shed loads of illiquid shit and so has the potential to be Neil Woodford on steroids. But here is a tweet which shows that Wood makes Woodford look like Einstein.
Hello, Share Strummers. The oil price is firing ever higher. Seeing the amazing volume of holiday traffic in my neck of the woods, I’m not surprised. And yet you would imagine in other parts of the world, India for example, individuals and businesses would be using less ebony nectar. So what does all this mean for an oil giant like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA)?
Jadestone Energy (JSE) is pleased to announce an agreement to acquire an interest in Peninsular Malaysia – and we can understand why.
Hello, Share Samplers. One of my favourite shares became a ten bagger in a year. However, just lately it’s been in freefall. The share price has decayed so fast that there wasn’t much chance to sell. And, as there’s been no obvious news to cause the steady topple, I wouldn’t have sold anyway. Now I think we may face a buying opportunity.
Hello Share Bunnies. Fool that I am, my biggest holding is in Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA). My intention is to sell up as soon as the price gets closer to its highs, even though I realise it will not get all that close, possibly ever again. Never mind, the share price is currently rising as the value of Brent Crude continues to soar.
Oil company EnQuest (ENQ) has announced calendar year 2020 results and that “year to date February production averaged 46,635 Boepd, affected by outages, repairs and opportunistic maintenance at Magnus and Kraken”. The shares have currently responded lower to below 19p, but this is a blip. The shares are a buy.
Hello, Share Scoopers. Did you know that a fifth of the world’s oil supply comes through the Suez canal? Currently, that useful waterway is blocked by a giant freighter. You can imagine how that is going to affect the price of Brent crude. The hike has already started, but it’s going to keep on going I think.
The oil price recovery continues and sector guru Peter Brailey has noted HERE that it is becoming very clear that demand is recovering back to pre-Covid levels along with production and storage decline trends. From around $67, he now sees $100 oil this year as very likely and perhaps inevitable rather than possible. And so to a geared way to play this…
Hello, Share Lovers. I’ve loyally held shares in Tullow Oil (TLW) for 5 years or so. Worst luck! At one stage, and it was a long time ago, the shares multibagged. But presently I’m down about 60%. Of course, the virus knocked the stuffing out of what value remained for me. But with the oil price soaring, there’s a chance that Tullow may fare better soon.
Hello, Share Searchers. When this magnificent website became the first to predict that oil prices would slump into negative territory, I choked on my cornflakes. After all, my biggest holdings are in BP (BP.) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA). And scarily Shareprophets turned out to be dead right – for a brief period you couldn’t give oil away.
It was only some 11 weeks ago (a few days before Christmas) I put views down on my view of the oil price outlook for 2021. In normal times I would not expect to update my views after such a short time – but I do today. I now see significantly higher pricing and I think this benefits articulation. I also refer to the passing of an old family friend – Ahmed Zaki Yamani.
Hello Share Dabblers. Perhaps because of the unexpected freeze in Texas, as well as icy conditions in other unlikely places around the world, the oil price continues to rise. As I write, Brent Crude is at $65 a barrel and still rising. I’ve written before why this surge is likely to power the big oil companies. And since then Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.) have risen further…
Hello, Share Crackers. Have you noticed the oil price lately? It’s now around $58 a barrel. And that surprisingly is higher than it was before the pandemic crash in March. You would have thought, with so fewer car journeys being done, that it would stay lower for longer. But it is good news for the army of Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) shareholders…
Hello, Share Birdies. There’s been rather a neat jump in the oil price, with it continuing an upward march since the new vaccines hit the scene. The Footsie tracks the oil price, so it’s good news all round. The only snag is that prices at the petrol pumps have started to hit their normal high levels. Time to think about investing in Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) I fancy…
What a mad year for oil sector investors. We entered with Brent at $68 per barrel. All looked set for a good sector performance, then the oil price fell off a cliff to $16 Brent before recovering to $52 as I type. I stuck my neck out previously predicting some negative pricing and WTI subsequently went spectacularly negative some weeks later. I’m going to try my luck a second time and give my view for what next year may hold in store.
Hello, Share People. As the oil price struggles back to somewhere nearer reality, it’s worth taking another look at Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA). Though I have to declare an interest. I’ve seen the chunkiest holding in my portfolio halved by the virus. And I still have the same number of shares. But let’s look at the encouraging reasons I have for hanging on…
Hello, Share Mongers. Probably like you, my penny shares are, on the whole, bettering my Footsie giants. I’m now very glad I always split my holdings into two camps – the jumbos for safety (ha-ha) and the minnows. It’s the virus that’s decimated the biggies, of course, especially my over-invested oil interests, like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.). But I’m not selling either share. And here’s why…
‘Measurement While Drilling’ technologies and equipment company Enteq Upstream (NTQ) has announced results for its half-year ended 30th September 2020 including “the international customer base for Enteq has grown significantly in the last six months, primarily through expanding market share in China… with good further opportunities… has some exciting product release plans which have the potential to change the scale of our business” and “cash balance of $8.8m”. The shares have currently responded to 12p, er approaching 16% lower…
Hello, Share Smashers. Though some of my portfolio has held up remarkably well during the pestilence, my biggest holding has been among the worst affected Footsie giants. That’s not surprising as it’s Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA & RDSB). This giant could only forge ahead if the oil price was ok and sadly it has proved anything but. The price of Brent Crude is down a massive 35%. Shell’s share price has tumbled by more than a half over the year…
Columbus Energy Resources (CERP) has updated investors with Executive Chairman Leo Koot emphasising “the Saffron well has discovered oil in both the Lower Cruse and Middle Cruse formations in the South West Peninsula, onshore Trinidad. These discoveries are transformational for Columbus creating two valuable standalone field developments”...
Excluding ShareProphets Radio 28, the most read non-Tom article this week is The man who predicted minus prices for oil asks where to next? Lower the only option?... by Peter Brailey, at a fantastic number four or number 11 including
A prior update from Trans-Siberian Gold (TSG) included “the company's supply chains remain unaffected and our operations continue to run as normal… Current events have resulted in material changes to commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, which are expected to impact positively on the overall profitability of the group”. The shares have responded up to 60p to buy – but that compares to more than double this in September… it is our March share tip of the month and we expect a rapid re-rate as the gold price soars...
I am enjoying my Ouzo with my cornflakes this morning, except I am not in reality. I do not delight in predicting negative oil prices a month ago and being proven correct. This only proves just how deep in the smelly stuff the world economy is in. For WTI (US mainland crude) to go negative to the extent it did yesterday was beyond my expectation at this early stage of the oil market re-balancing. I think this is pre-curser to wider issues on oil and oil product pricing and I am very worried about what this means...
The oil price bounced hard in the last week in expectation of an OPEC+ and G20 deal to take many barrels off the market. As I write the deal is still not finalised and agreed to by the key players, as Mexico has been playing hardball, so I do not take as read the OPEC+ deal will be approved. In the circumstances I would suggest approval of this deal is the best that bulls can hope for. The G20 provided little tangible support to oil price. I see these outcomes very much meeting my criteria of “too little far too late” as I expected.
Kosmos Energy (KOS) obtained a secondary listed on the London market in 2017, having been listed on the NYSE for some years. It’s not one I see often discussed on any social media platform and seems to me to just fly under the radar. The share price fell off a cliff in February tracking the oil price down. I have been watching this company for some time and can now see long term high risk value following the RNS yesterday updating on RBL and project timings.
Yes, after three weeks, I have shaved off a lockdown beard that was white, grey, black and brown and made me look like an elderly Big Issue seller. But having run out of foam i still have a dark moustache and so am now a throwback to the 1970s. The good old days. I discuss this and also the idea that we will see a dramatic post Coronavirus economic, stockmarket and oil price recovery. I look at Easyjet (EZJ), Angling Direct (ANG) - using it as a case study of how the economy really is snagged so badly - and at the scandal at Versarien (VRS) where lyin' Neill Ricketts now stands totally exposed with regards to his share dumping a year ago. Surely the regulators must act now. I discuss how James Hay are m aking my life a misery with their incompetence lover my SIPP transfer. Finally an appeal from Darren please send your views of your new home desks and the views from your window to firstname.lastname@example.org
A market and COVID-19 response update from BP (BP.) – and the shares 3% lower at 333.7p on the back of it…
Shares in self-styled “FX risk management and payments specialist servicing corporates and institutions internationally”, Alpha FX Group (AFX) were already down from 1350p reached in January to 940p – and this also following a results statement just the week before last. Now though a “COVID-19 Trading Update” – and the shares currently 560p!...
Hello, Share Diggers. This week I’ve been considering companies that may not suffer as much as others from the lockdown. Today I invite you to look at the big electricity suppliers...
Excluding ShareProphets Radio 27, the most read non-Tom article this week is Gold falls off a cliff. Anything to worry about? by Nigel Somerville, with a rare number one on the leaderboard or number 9 including Bearcasts.
I have discussed coronavirus itself putting to you a question no-one dares ask over on my own website HERE. Then I discuss Peter Brailey's most excellent work on the oil price today and what it means for London's listed oil stocks if Peter is even half correct, which I think he may be. Finally to the airlines and why shareholders in EasyJet (EZJ) must now lose everything in a nationalisation not just be modestly diluted as the FT argues is being discussed.
Tom Winnifrith highlighted my current views on the oil price in a bearcast earlier this week. As most know I can see the good in just about any investment case, it’s just that most of the time the bad is just so much more compelling. Where is the oil price going? I do not know – who does?! But after years of supply side focus, I see the risk firmly on the demand side. Could oil price go negative? – yep for some grades, and perhaps all, I can see why that is not an outrageous statement.
Year end results today from Hurricane Energy (HUR) answer some questions I have raised, but left others unanswered – it’s a bit of a curate’s egg at first glance. The company has provided clarity on some issues, not least of which in the current market is a going concern assessment against expected low oil levels, but left other questions unanswered but I remain of the view this is over valued at the current time.
This is a fantastic tweet from restaurant entrepreneur Jonathan Downey. It's a picture taken ten years ago this month (possibly ten years ago this week, I can't be sure) of his restaurant burning down. It's of interest to us because the fire that started in his restaurant also burnt down the offices of Rivington Street Holdings, one T. Winnifrith, CEO.
Two pulled placings, awful userous death spiral financing, ramping a plenty and a crazy valuation – everything tells you that Bahamas Petroleum (BPC) was a stonking short. And now it has announced a delay to drilling of the Perseverance #1 well in the Bahamas citing the Coronavirus as its excuse. What total bollocks.
Hello, Share Rockers. This old punter has held Tullow Oil (TLW) shares since Abraham was a teenager. But I’m inclined to sell now. Perhaps not at the moment as the virus continues to have its wicked way, but that won't last forever. The latest figures, which don't really reflect the virus effect, are not that good...
Don't worry the sun will still rise tomorrow and we are not ALL going to die of Coronavirus. I discuss the oil price crash and stockmarket slump and look in particular at: Tern (TERN), Carnival (CCL), Bidstack (BIDS), Versarien (VRS), the antics of market makers, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Bahamas Petroleum (BPC), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Tullow (TLW), Optibiotix (OPTI) and Premier Oil (PMO)
I jest. The death of Qassem Soleimani sees one more evil bastard heading to hell. While those with #TrumpDerangementSyndrome will shed tears for this Jew hating, terror loving mass murderer, I do not but discuss the impact of this latest Trump triumph on the region, on the oil price and on oil stocks. I look at Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) and at Zenith Energy (ZEN) whrre I am contacted by material shareholders who want regime change something that makes Anglo's desire to own Zenith shares even more bonkers. Finally I suggest that unless Bidstack (BIDS) clarifies three matters urgently its shares will continue to collapse.
Hello Share Takers. Christmas is a time for ghost stories, but this is ridiculous! I was watching television, but when closing one eye noticed that a lot of people were headless. I then spent three hours with the lovely people of VisionExpress in Carmarthen, trying to find out what was wrong. While sitting there I pondered the oil price...
Hello Share Mongers. A company which has seen a 12% drop in its share price of late is BP (BP.). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this setback has come at the same time as big publicity created by the newsworthy protests of Extinction Rebellion. This fast-growing lobby is against the black stuff being sold by big oilers like BP...
Hello, Share Thrashers. You’ll have noticed that while the oil price has been steady, two big British oil giants have seen big falls in their share prices. I refer to Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA and RDSB) and BP (BP.). Meanwhile, some smaller companies, like JKX (JKX) and Tullow (TLW) have kept their value...
Hello Share Twiddlers. Airlines are a difficult area for me. Not since I ditched my old British Airways shares yonks ago have I dabbled in the sector. As a pilot might say: there seem to be more headwinds than tailwinds. The budget operator easyJet (EZJ) is a company which currently performs above City expectations. But for how long?...
Hello, Share Beasts. There was a drone attack on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia at the weekend. As I write this, it’s not possible to gauge the effect on the price of Brent Crude, but it's likely to send it higher. Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest oil producer. A tenth of the world’s oil and gas comes from the kingdom...
I discuss one of them in full. One have referred to before, part 2 is tomorrow bt I can't say what it is for another few weeks. Then I look at today's Neil Woodford shocker Benevolent AI and how much Neil personally has trousered from valuations now shown to be a joke. Then the attack on Saudi Arabia and what it means for oil prices, gold and the global economy. It is not as dramatic as if this had happened in the 1970s. But there is a dramatic scenario to consider.
Hello, Share Scoopers. I still believe that the bigger oil companies are undervalued, given the price of Brent Crude. Yes, recently the oil price has fallen and attempts to revitalise have been thwarted by the general malaise. But that could be a buying opportunity for some oilers...
BP (BP.) has announced 2019 second quarter results, emphasising “continuing to deliver strong performance and strategic progress”…
Hello, Share Catchers. I believe my second biggest holding is BP (BP.), so I was initially disappointed by the news that underlying profit was down in quarter number 2 compared to the same time in 2018...
Hello Share Twiddlers. Though I’m sometimes rebuked for suggesting it, I feel the weather has a bigger effect on the upward or downward paths of shares than most analysts give credit for. There are some shares which drop away in hot weather. For example, the price of oil is falling a bit...
Hello, Share Toasters. It must be ten years ago now that I dumped my shares in Wood Group (WG.), the supplier of stuff and services to the black gold industry among other related functions, including greener forms of energy. I didn't regret that move as the share price hit a chequered path afterwards, suffering like all oil-related companies from the infamous oil price crash...
Hello Share Twiddlers. While I still have my biggest investment in giant oilers, I've got a sneaking suspicion that I ought to put more cash into a few tiddlers. This is not an easy thing for me to say, as my past small oil plays have nearly always ended in tears including a few dallies with the Falkland Islands...
When the oil price crashed in 2015, opportunities from secondary asset disposals by the larger operators to smaller more focused companies was always going to happen- it’s the normal process in the commodity sector. PetroTal Corp (PTAL), is an example of this, where I can see upside from this business process. The shares are cheap.
Hello Share Peepers. Having dumped most of my smaller oil companies to concentrate on giants like Shell (RDSB) and BP (BP.), I still find myself with the second-tier oiler Tullow Oil (TLW). About ten years ago I was nursing huge paper profits on this one. But there has been a gradual erosion, so now I’m back to par...
Hello, Share Troopers. Are we still 'Going Well with Shell, Shell, Shell?' The words of the famous Bing Crosby TV advert of the 1950s still seem pertinent here. The oil jumbo Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) & (RDSB) is my biggest holding, mainly for the high dividend. But I also have hopes for the share price, which, given the rise and rise of Brent Crude, seems too low to me...
Hello, Share Climbers. While the old shares have been at a standstill for Easter, the oil price has continued its race upwards. At the same time, the big London protest has been focussing minds on global warming. This seems to have worked for the campaigners as there’s been a lot of debate on the media about the planet’s worsening pollution. Radio Four has been full of it and Sir David presented a frightening programme about this mega issue in one of BBC TV’s prime Easter slots. So what does all of this mean for those of us with shares in the big Footsie oilers - and the smaller black stuff producers, as well?
Hello, Share Peckers. A company which has caused me anxiety and loss in the past seems to be on the up. And as I’m not one to hold a grudge, I won't be selling my shares any time soon. In fact, I think the future could be quite rosy from herein - which is nice because I need to claw back a setback which once nudged 80%...
Hello, Share Pushers. I suspect not many of us will be over-keen to invest in the bigger power supply companies. The headwinds are worrying. Government caps on prices, big competition from smaller and cheaper companies, fuelled by comparison websites, and the rising oil price. And we could probably think of a few more...
Hello, Share Cringers. Have you noticed how the price of crude oil is creeping up? In the distant past, I think I recall, it was higher than $140 a barrel. Then it dipped to around $30 in 2016 on glut fears. It managed to rally above $80 a barrel in September last year, before toppling again to around $46 - and now it’s hauled back up to $70. Recently though, the share prices of the oil giants have not improved enormously...
Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA) has updated that “we are pleased to see continued stable production reported from the Portland Sandstone and look forward to further updates from the operator as the programme continues” (Alba: 11.765%)…
Hello, Share Twirlers. Having just reminded myself that the p/e I have for Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA and RDSB) is a mere 11, I think it may be time to look at this giant company again. It was at least two years ago that at least one big bank was opining the B shares worth 2800p, yet, after posting much bigger profits since then, the price still languishes at around 2400p...
Wood Group (WG.) is having a volatile day and is down over 7% as I write. The share is still however the thick end of ten percent above its low point for the year...which goes to show you the material natural level of fluctuations in the oil services space. Still, with the oil price heading north again year-to-date I would have expected more especially - as I last recounted HERE - Wood Group has plenty of self-help scope resulting from the Amec Foster Wheeler deal of a little over a year ago...
Hello Share Pushers. With the price of oil once more rising, if only slowly, investors will be happier to own oil shares. But it might be more prudent to take advantage of the demand for the black stuff by buying into firms which are not actual producers, but instead the companies which supply oilers...
Hello Share Pacers. Recently I opined that BP (BP.) was possibly a better bet than its rival Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA and RDSB) at the moment. But there’s not much in it, and it might be a good idea to take out the insurance of investing in both jumbos. The thing driving both shares at the moment is, of course, the rising oil price...
Columbus Energy Resources (CERP) “is pleased to provide an update on business, operational and financial activities during Q4 2018”. However, this includes “gross revenues of US$3.23 million achieved (Q3 2018: US$3.85 million) - reduction due to lower average production and lower oil price achieved over the quarter”. Hmmm…
Hello, Share Grabbers. Well, the New Year has bumped off to a decent start after a disastrous end to 2018. All the fears about a no-deal Brexit seem to have been priced in now. And some better news about the affair should send shares upwards fast. But, of course, some companies will continue to do better than others...
Petrofac (PFC) is a British giant I don't think I’ve touched on before. But maybe now is the time to bring this engineer and constructor which serves the oil and gas world, to your notice. For one thing, it has had new orders worth $5 billion this year. The order pipeline is bulging with $10 billion in total...
“Gulf Marine Services (LSE: GMS), the leading provider of advanced self-propelled self-elevating support vessels serving the offshore oil, gas and renewable energy sectors, provides the following trading update”. Not ‘is pleased to provide’ then. Let’s see why…
Hello Share Kindlers. The price of Brent Crude has fallen rather a lot in the last six weeks. From $85 to $62 a barrel to be more precise. That’s understandable, as the black stuff was becoming a bit toppy. Part of the fall is due to a strange cycle in the oil market...
Hello, Share Zappers. I once had a serious funny turn when I thought I’d sold my Tullow Oil (TLW) shares just before a massive upward valuation. Sighs of relief when I realised I had forgotten to hit the sell button in the last few minutes of the Friday trading.
Hello, Share Sparers. Over a year or two now, I’ve extolled the arguments for investing in oil giants. That argument, especially for Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) is becoming more compelling. Here's the reason...
Hello, Share Scramblers. One of my biggest holdings which I mainly maintain for the juicy dividend is BP (BP.). The results are now out for the third quarter of this year and, as expected, are sizzling. With the oil price still perky, despite recent falls, I would expect even better next time.
Shares in BP (BP.) approached 600p as summer dawned and again earlier this month. They’ve been hit in the recent sell-off though, despite - already offering a hefty dividend - the second quarter results having emphasised “momentum and the strength of our financial frame… we are increasing our dividend for the first time in almost four years. This reflects not just our commitment to growing distributions to shareholders but our confidence in the future”…
Hello Share Switchers. Amerisur Resources (AMER) is one of those companies in my bag that have done so badly over years, that the shares are not always worth keeping an eye on. However, there was hope this week for some sort of recovery.
Provider of geological products and services Getech (GTC) has announced results for the first half of 2018, noting “a robust sales pipeline” and “we expect 2019 budgets to set a clearer and more positive path”...
Hello, Share Minders. As the price of Brent crude continues to climb, still the big oil companies lag behind the surge. I keep stressing that their share prices will catch up, probably sooner than later. But what about the smaller fish?
Ten years after the Great Recession’s onset, another long, deep downturn may soon roil the U.S. economy. The high level of asset prices today mirrors the earlier trend in house prices that preceded the 2008 crash; both mispricings reflect long periods of very low real interest rates caused by Federal Reserve policy. Now that interest rates are rising, equity prices will fall, dragging down household wealth, consumer spending and economic activity.
Hello, Share Tasters. It’s rather amazing how people can hold grudges against companies which, somewhere in the mists of time, let them down. And yet we should always be mindful that the story changes all the time. And big losers in the past are often today’s brightest prospects.
Hello, Share Markers. The big story of the week has not had much publicity. It’s the fact that Brent Crude reached a new high of $80 a barrel. Not an all-time record, of course, as it has traded at $140. But it could reach $100 in my view before it begins to fall again.
Hello, Share Seekers. Having just filled my tank at huge cost, I rather think that the BP (BP.) balance sheet is having a jolly old time. The price of Brent Crude has been dithering lately, due to a surfeit of the black stuff in America. And yet the price at the pumps has soared.
Hello, Share Sorters. One of the big British oilers whose share price I expect to see escalate, once the penny of rising oil prices finally drops, is Tullow (TLW).
Hello Share Skimmers. I'm a bit tired of mentioning that producing oil companies are under-valued given the comparatively high price of the black and sticky. So let me vary things by bringing in companies which supply the oil industry instead.
Hello Share Trackers. I’ve heard on Radio Four just now that petrol stations are being urged to cut prices by two pence a litre. According to the BBC, this is because the price of Brent Crude has fallen. Talk about an exaggeration! The price has only dropped a few points after skyrocketing in the last six months.
Hello Share Strikers. In recent weeks, nay months, I’ve advocated buying shares in the big oilers, like Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.). I was very lucky here. And I still think there’s some way to go, with the price of Brent Crude once again at the top of the tree.
Hello Share Scrollers. I think I recall saying way back in 2017 that the oil price could soar to reach $80 a barrel in the Spring. And we’re only a dollar away from that forecast now. Of course, I did not know that troubles in the Middle East would get so horribly worse.
Did you see Friday's AGM trading update from oil services company John Wood Group (WG.)? Obviously I was all over it like a rash given it was one of my two tips of the year in late December and - as I noted here - a couple of months ago or so, it had a slightly sluggish start. The better news is that after Friday's move the stock is now back to where it started the year - and I think we go higher from here.
Hello, Share Turners. As the Iranian question continues to dominate world news, the possibility of tougher US sanctions keeps the price of Brent crude spiralling upwards. Which is keeping the Footsie and the Dow buoyant, too. Good for share shifters like us, but sadly, bad for world peace.
Hello, Share Screamers. What do you do when you learn a company has driven up its profits by 71% since last time? You consider buying the shares, of course. You might climb down after studying the numbers, but in the case of BP (BP.) I don’t think you’ll find much to worry about.
Hello, Share Baggers. It’s a long time, if ever, since I brought up one of the most annoying stocks in my portfolio. That’s JKX Oil & Gas (JKX). And at long last, I see a glimmer of hope. I advised my wife to buy this company for her ISA yonks ago.
Hello, Share Snackers. As you may have gathered, I constantly stress the importance of the currently steaming price of Brent crude. This happy trend will affect not just the oilers, but many other shares out there.
Hello, Share Pickers. When a share continues to look even more promising after earlier recommendations, there’s an excuse to return to the story. So let’s have yet another stab at Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) - there are also Shell ‘B’ shares, known as 'RDSB', which are subject to Dutch rules on dividends, so you may get a better yield from these.
Hello, Share Cakers. As troubles in the Middle East mount, it’s natural that oil prices will rise. And as I write, the cost of Brent crude has hit a new high. Not a record of course, as the price was once twice what it is now.
Hello, Share Seekers. I have a bigger holding than is safe with BP (BP.), but I don't think I’m going to sell any for some time. Which is a bit of a silly statement to make as, just like any other company, the story could change at any time. But BP has ridden out the storm of compensation. And though the fight isn’t over yet, I think share shifters like us need not worry too much. This is a huge company which can absorb most shocks.
Hello, Share Chillers. We have two reasons the Footsie is flat at the mo. One is the usual January post-Christmas party hang-over. Shares rose fast just before the 25th in a rosy cloud of Yuletide optimism. But, as nearly always happens, January produces a headache.
Hello, Share Trekkies. The oil price still forges ahead. It’s around $71 for a barrel of Brent crude. And yet the big oil companies are not really reflecting the boom. However, they’ll probably catch up soon.
Hello, Share Twinklers. Oil is the hot sector at the moment. The price of Brent Crude is recovering fast. Still a long way to go to those heady days of the $120 barrel, but it’s moving up strongly again.
Hello Share Twangers. After a phoney war start, this winter is turning out to be quite chilly. Most of us saw snow over the Christmas period and though things have warmed up a bit now, there’s still an icy wind blowing. And it's even colder in many parts of the world, including the USA which is seeing temperatures plunge to record lows. Europe has also been unnaturally cold. All this has the effect of using up oil reserves.
Hello, Share Smoothers. There's no point in my knocking the service given by the budget airline Easyjet (EZJ). For one thing, it would be hypocritical as I use the service more than any other flyer. This will no doubt apply to many of the other passengers swelling the airports for Christmas. And at last I am able to commend your further research into the company, as things are looking up.
Hello Share Blasters. On the road in the grim north, I don't have access to the usual research channels. So allow me to review a trio of shares I've scanned in more detail recently, but which I believe have not so far taken full advantage of the current Santa Rally.
Hello, Share Pingers. This kind of prediction can be doomed to failure, but I rather think the Santa Rally will kick in, at last, this week. There has been a slight retrench due to a faltering oil price. But at the end of last week, the cost of Brent crude had risen again - to $62.72 a barrel.
Hello, Share Crunchers. With the oil price soaring and possibly targeting $70 a barrel, it’s worth looking at a few of the less gigantic producers. Today I give you Premier Oil (PMO) which does both oil and gas with operations based in some interesting places.
Hello Share Twiddlers. It’s not long ago that I commended BP (BP.) to you. And it’s been rising ever since. The quarterly results are out and show the tip was justified. Normally, shares dip even on good news on reporting days, but for BP the shares rose again.
Hello, Share Crimpers. My wife’s self-trading ISA account, which I monitor and occasionally advise upon, has done better than my own. Which is a jolly good job because one of my choices on her behalf was JKX (JKX), the oil company. This was a long time ago and since then the share price has gradually fallen. But…
Hello, Share Scoopers. Sometimes, gang, it makes sense to include advice from a different source when bringing shares before you for a possible punt. Especially when the other analysts agree with me. The boys and girls at Barclays have repeated an ‘overweight’ commendation for two big oil giants, and I’m glad to say I have chunky holdings in both of them.
Hello, Share Hearties. No mistake about it, Centrica (CNA) is a well-run company and a huge entity. Its market cap is £9.6 billion. But as we know, the expression ‘Too big to fail’ does not always work. Many of us will have lost money on British giants that went pear-shaped, like BT, British Energy, Northern Rock, RBS etc. And Centrica does not seem to me a rosy share to hold or buy at the moment.
Hello, Share Scoopers. We all know that investing in airlines is one of the riskier areas of share shifting. What with the Ryanair (RYA) situation and the end of good old Monarch. But the more speculative among us should not, given a huge surge in air travel, give up on the flying sector altogether. So may I suggest that you look at another British-based budget airline.
Hello Share Eaters. As I write, the share I recommend you look at today is nudging towards its all-time high price. Will it now run out of steam? Not if most of the signs are anything to go by. And meanwhile, there is a vast divi, paid four times a year.
Hello, Share Collectors. Many of us, I know, are still awash in oil stocks, both the producers and riskier explorers. I’ve been advising that we cut down, as the competition from wind, sun, waves and biomass, threatens to grow. But I think I may have been too hard on ebony nectar and here are a few reasons why.
Hello, Share Pingers. Budget airline EasyJet (EZJ) has issued a trading statement to say that passengers in its third quarter were up by more than nearly 11% to 22 million. Revenues improved by 16% to £1.4 billion.
Hello Share Swabbers. I’ve held Tullow Oil (TLW) shares for as long as I can remember. At one stage they were up 120%. Nowadays I’m down by 50%. Like all the other big oil producers the share price has been attacked by the falling value of Brent crude. But Tullow seems to have suffered more than most.
Hello Share Mashers. It’s going to be a scary end to the week. What if Labour gets in? The Big City won’t like that and shares will dive heavily. But that will be a short-lived shocker, in my view. Because Jezzer in power will cause the pound to fall even lower. And that more than anything is keeping the Footsie at record highs.
Hello Share Ticklers. The old memory doesn’t get any better as I motor towards the end of life’s great highway, but I don’t think I've looked at IMI (IMI) here before.
Hello Share Crunchers. I hold stock in an awful lot of oil producers, perhaps too many. But one company which has never lit my fire is Cairn Energy (CNE). Maybe I should dip in, though.
One of the most fascinating scenes I’ve seen for some time is the sight of Big Donald jigging around with some sort of weird entertainment put on by the Saudi’s for the President's visit. It almost made me forget the big benefit of this amiable state visit on share shifters like us. And that of course is that the President’s friendly reception sent the oil price up.
Hello Share Rattlers. On checking the number of BP shares I hold, I was rather shocked. It’s one of those shares I’ve been gradually building up, whenever I find myself with a bit of share cash and no clear company currently worthy of investment.
High market prices are currently being supported by OPEC cutbacks, and these higher profits are funding the growth of American drilling. American oil explorers who survived the worst of the 2014-2016 market sell off are dismissive of the 14 percent slide in prices this year from a high of $55.24 to around $48 a barrel. The price would have to drop to the $30s or lower to dent the bottom line of many drillers now working U.S. shale fields, according to Katherine Richard, the CEO of Warwick Energy Investment Group, which own stakes in more than 5,000 oil and natural gas wells.
It takes two to tango or, rather, two to make a market. I am not exactly a great fan of LGO Energy (LGO) having called this as a teddy to perfection. But Andrew Monk of VSA reckons it is time to bottom fish and since I believe in free speech I am happy to publish his reasoning from his morning email.
Bulls of LGO Energy (LGO), like our own pet in house BB loon Wildes, argue that the decline in its share price is entirely down to the falling oil price and nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that it has hopeless assets in Trinidad which, however much cash is thrown at them, cannot produce enough oil to generate free cashflow. I offer you up four charts, sent in by a kind reader, which should show this in pictures, since folks like Wildes find long words a tad confusing.
Hello Share Splodgers. Have you considered buying shares in Petrofac (PFC)? It’s one of the world’s biggest providers of infrastructure, including buildings and equipment to the oil and gas world.
Specialist exploration data and petroleum systems studies and evaluations provider, Getech (GTC) has announced results for its year ended 31st July 2016, including axing the dividend as oil prices remained “low and volatile”. The following reviews, with the shares currently more than 11.5% lower on the day, at 26.5p…
The world still hates small oil stocks. We are not sure when that will change but given how many of the mid caps are collapsing either entirely (Afren) or surviving only via schemes that see shareholders almost wiped out ( XCite, Gulfsands, Gulf Keystone, IGAS, LGO, etc, etc) we feel we could be at a Burmah Castrol moment. Do a google search if you are too young to understand the reference!
For my sins, I took some time to read through 88 Energy’s Interim Report released last Monday. While continuing to believe that the attractiveness of a stock is inversely related to the number of other investors who are analysing it, I decided nevertheless to see what all the fuss was about.
A “Trading Update” from shipping services company Clarkson (CKN) includes notice early of “deterioration in freight rates” reflecting an “increase in global economic uncertainty and the continuing imbalance between supply and demand in shipping and offshore”. Uh oh…
Hello Share Changers. What gave me the arrogance to say that the oil price would rally quite nicely this year was experience. Though I am no longer an energetic young trader, I have been plying our golden game since I first dated Bodicea. So I know that when the price of a commodity falls, it always bounces back. Always. So the recovery of oil was never the world’s greatest prediction.
Hello Share Turners. It’s Carnival (CCL) time again. I’ve commended to you before the biggest leisure cruise company in the world. Let me update that view. Carnival is the face of British capitalism that launched 100 ships. That’s enough for 212,000 berths, or sleeping places as we non-nautical types like to say. It operates under a few famous names, including P&O Cruises, Cunard, Swan and Princess. And it does cruises, well, all over the place.
Hello Share Chancers. It wasn’t so long ago that my colleague Amanda Van Dyke was getting it in the neck on this beloved website for commending us all to buy gold. Now those detractors have had to admit they were wrong. We heard at the UK Investor Show more than one expert say that gold was the thing to buy, still. But though I’m holding onto my gold miners, I am now switching my main hopes to a rally in the next business which is likely to hit back. after a very bad time.
Every piece of Turkish has its day and shares in dog with fleas Rose Petroleum (ROSE) jumped yesterday prompting a statement from the company that is truly laughable.
Hello Share Crunchers. If we assume - and I think this might be a safe bet - that oil prices will perk up, then perhaps we should cast about for shares in the energy game which might ride the rally.
LGO has been flagging that this would happen for months but now that the royalty rates on Goudron have been cut, Neil Ritson is announcing the news as if it was the second coming of Jesus. It is not. For starters Jesus would struggle to find three wise men and a virgin to welcome him at any company associated with David Lenigas. This company is still screwed and more confetti issues are ineviable ahead of its next formal debt repayment default in May.
Hello Share Flingers. For quite a few months now, I've abandoned my earlier practice of looking only at the stocks I hold, in the conviction that I should not put commebdations your way that I haven't the courage to invest in myself.
I cannot say that this is a million miles away from my own view except that I am more bearish than the broker on global demand for oil given where I see the world economy heading. Thus - unless there is all out war in the Middle East - my view is that a sustained recovery in the oil price is a 2017 or late 2016 story and won't happen sooner which means stacks more PLC casualties (here are my top 11 to fold BTW). We shall see. I thought this morning's note rather interesting. It follows below:
Premier Oil (PMO) has today served up full year numbers and all things considered it is not quite the horror show it could have been. The E.On acqusition looks transformational but hang on...what is this in the final sentence of the opening verbage:
Hello Share Shafters. I keep stressing, to the point of boredom I expect, that these days, it’s best to choose companies which pay richer dividends. We cannot rely on share prices rising, but even in the choppiest waters, some firms manage to award a decent divi two to four times a year.
Bowleven (BLVN) like so many other AIM oil companies has been a big disappointment to anyone who has invested longer term – including myself in the past! But if you’re looking to buy into any smaller oil companies at a time when the oil price is down around the $30 area that we are currently seeing, then it would be high on my list, and probably right at the top.
As I have said before the US Energy Information Agency (the EIA) has a thankless task, compiling data from thousands of oilfields and operators to come up with an estimate of how much oil the USA actually produces. Some data is timely and accurate, Alaska is a case in point, some, not so much.
Hello Share Swiggers. Journey Group (JNY) might be worth a tickle. It’s a company which brings good quality meals and snacks into aeroplanes. Yes, I know that sounds like a contradiction in terms, but somebody has to do something about airline meals.
Northern Petroleum (NOP) has today announced it has completed its Rainbow deal in Canada and hapless CEO little Keith Bush has insisted that cash is not an issue. The, heavily spun, statement skips critical details and the fact is that Northern will be out of cash a lot sooner than most folks think. This looks terminal.
We are in the midst of a rout and the oil market has literally lost its mind. There is no logic or sense in the market whatsoever.
This almost feels like intruding on private grief, shares in MX Oil (MXO) now trading at just 0.875p - well below the 1p par value of the - now clearly struggling - placing, but I have just a few more questions that shareholders should be asking the company in light of yesterday's statement.
The weekend news from the oil sector is grim. I am not sure that folks out there in, what Malcolm Stacey might term, punterland realise just how grim it is. There is a massive PR and IR industry supporting the proposition that things can only get better. Au contraire, for the next few months at least, they are going to get a lot worse. And in that spirit I offer up a list of eleven oil E&Ps to sell now, to get out what and while you can, as they could well hit zero.
Friends, Oilmen, Economists, I come not to bury Sieminski but to praise him. In case you don't know (I confess I didn't) Adam Sieminski is the Administrator of the US Energy Information Administration, or the EIA. He, or more likely someone in his organisation, publishes a monthly forecast of oil production for the USA. It is called the Short Term Energy Outlook and in this post I am going to take a look at some of those forecasts over the past few years to see how Adam and his team have done.
This company is on the precipice. It needs to raise £5-6 million in emergency equity to keep going and everything is going against it. The best case for LGO Energy (LGO) is mega dilution from whatever is a confetti issuing machine, but an equally plausible outcome is insolvency.
Once or twice I make predictions and sometimes I get them spot on and sometimes they are so spectacularly wrong I think it best to crawl under a rock and abandon the recently adopted profession of seer.
How many macro-economic forecasters does it take to change a lightbulb? None. You get someone who knows what they are doing to do it. In that vein I offer up my six big macro calls for 2016. I am a bottom up investor - my share tips of the year will follow - so this is not really my forte but I have views - and did study economics at university - and these shape my investment calls. So here goes.
"It's the way I tell em" used to say Frank Carson, before continuing "Its a cracker". But old Frank had nothing on his fellow Irish comedian wee Brian McDonnell of US Oil & Gas (USOP) which served up a stormer of a Christmas update yesterday. Brian, you crack me up...it's the way you tell em. That classic "The dog ate our drill test results" still has me in stitches. And now this.
Petroceltic's (PCI) year just got a whole lot worse when at 5.24pm yesterday, a.k.a '' nobody is watching o' clock " the company rolled out the red carpet of piffle from an operational and financing update inc. a strategic review. As Petroceltic has a history of trying to gag anonymous bloggers (whilst I don't hide) I think I'll skate gently on the thin ice its business model is built upon. I don't want to spend Christmas suffering another attack from an army of delusional investors crowing that Petroceltic is a real value play when in reality the paddywack performance is plain to see.
The oil price is on its knees, but I think we’re very close to being at a stage where its time to start buying oil producers for the longer term. The trick is going to be picking those that are strong enough to survive in the current climate, and avoiding those that could get into serious trouble with their debt.
Oil producers have had a terrible year, but I think there could be more of the same to come and we will see some more casualties. Unfortunately oil is one of my favourite sectors and it has performed abysmally over the past 12 months or so, thanks to the crash in oil prices, with WTI currently sitting at around the $40 area, and Brent at circa $43.
In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.
OPEC is the ultimate cartel, it was formed to get its members a better price for their product than the free market would allow, and the members did that by working together to restrict supply. There is a reason that governments outlaw cartels, they prevent prices finding their true level and they transfer wealth from consumers to producers.
Something different today...This time it's a video blog post wherein I expound my theory on why this oil price slump is not a re-run of the eighties, thank goodness, and finish with my view of where the oil price is headed. On the way I answer the mystery of who it was that ate all the pies.
Shares in Xcite Energy (XEL) are up 6.25% this morning on news of the company’s farm-in with Azinor Catalyst Limited. Under the terms of the deal, Azinor has the opportunity to earn into the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Licence P.1979, held by Xcite’s subsidiary Xcite Energy Resources. In return for completing a technical evaluation and then possibly an Induced Polarization survey of P.1979, Azinor could receive as much as 50% of the licence’s equity. On the face of it this looks like decent enough news for Xcite. The deal should enable progress at this non-core asset, allowing the company to focus on its flagship Bentley project. However, Xcite is giving up a significant proportion of P.1979 in return. The question now is, can this deal deliver value to shareholders?
This morning Bowleven (BLVN) announced its full year results. The company has made excellent operational progress and its balance sheet remains strong. On 30 June Bowleven was debt free, had a cash balance of $145.3million (£96million) and the expectation of the equivalent of up to a further $80million investment under the terms of the Etinde farm out ($40million free carry in two appraisal wells and $40million in cash payments, subject to certain milestones). Although the cash balance will have been eaten into over the last 4 months, during which two exploration wells were drilled at Bomono, Bowleven is in rude financial health. So why does the market continue to punish its share price?