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Even a few of our detractors have now come around
When Covid arrived I penned a piece here about the possible impacts on sub-prime lenders, given that the industry was already having issues even prior to that, and have also commented extensively on this on Twitter over the past couple of years.
A year or so ago I penned several pieces about the state of the sub-prime loan market in the UK and how I expected major changes to be on the horizon in terms of the way companies providing this type of lending were regulated, and also the potential for mis-selling claims against them.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Optibiotix (OPTI) meal substitute drinks and do actually feel better after just a few days of losing a meal a day and a week of near zero carbs and no booze at all. But a serving suggestion from one reader went down very badly. Elsewhere I look at Sabien Technology (SNT) and the fallout from l’affaire Julie Meyer, Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) and also at Provident Financial (PFG).
Another sub-prime lending crisis has been brewing in the US - and in terms of cars in the UK too - in recent years, and it seems likely that Covid-19 will be the pin that finally pops the bubble.
With so many car crashes waiting in the pipeline for Neil Woodford, Eddie Stobart (ESL) slipped through and the shares are now suspended at 71p. With its finances clearly in total a mess and a highly generous dividend under review (ie going to be scrapped) the next question is whether it will have to tap the markets for more cash as its lenders pull the plug. The good news for Neil Woodford is that the suspension means the net asset values of his funds will be unaffected until the suspension is lifted, but don’t let that fool you: the shares will be savagely derated in due course.
Another day, another round of bad news. This morning Neil Woodford will be reading the half-year results of Non-Standard Finance (NSF) – which he put his weight behind in its takeover battle with the rather larger Provident Financial (PFG), which he also owns. But NSF lost that battle and this morning Neil learns that the whole exercise cost it £12.7 million. But hey, its only other peoples’ money…..
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. So the Muddy Waters report was indeed about AIM-listed Burford Capital which duly crashed by 46% yesterday, to add to the 19% drop on Tuesday, and Neil Woodford’s second biggest stock pick is…er….no longer his second biggest investment. I rather doubt it is in his top ten now. The press, as predicted, has been baying for blood and the queues of gated Woodford Equity Income Fund investors looking to get their money back before any more of it just disappears into thin air will be lengthening. So let’s take a look at the effect of the Burford collapse on the Woodford empire.
This morning’s news from Morningstar show that Neil Woodford’s Income Focus Fund yesterday saw NAV per unit slip, albeit by the narrow margin of 0.04%. This should have dropped the fund from its previous total of £288.8 million to £288.7 million but redemptions knocked that down to £288.5 million. The trickle continues. Meanwhile yesterday saw Woodford release its monthly update to the end of June…..
In today's bearcast I start with a range of matters relating to Neil Woodford including brokers lifting our research, Purplebricks (PURP), Provident Financial (PFG) and Non-Standard Finance (NSF). And I make Neil a generous offer on Proton Partners (PPI). Then I look at Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC) and the dumb fuck clients of Cenkos (CNKS). Finally a brief look at Ironveld (IRON) and at the Bluejay (JAY) hound. Postcript: Cynical Bear points out that today's TRI shows Woody is in fact selling Purplebricks in the market as well. Timber!
A terse announcement today from Provident Financial (PFG) hides a much bigger story covering corporate failure and this website's current great focus: Mr Neil Woodford. And yes, his recent failures have led - in a roundabout way - to another failure. Failure squared!
In today's bearcast I discuss Neil Woodford's spivvery regarding Provident Financial (PFG), have a smoking rumour on Argo Blockchain (ARB) - which we own - comment on I3 Energy (I3E) as it dissembles and look at Quiz (QUIZ) and Sosandar (SOS) as well as Metals Exploration (MTL). If you enjoyed this bearcast, follow Jim Mellon and support the Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks HERE.
Amid all the hoo-haa over Neil Woodford’s transfer of unlisted dogs from his equity income fund (EIF) in return for Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) paper, it seems he has been again pressing the sell button. Of particular interest is the sale of 1.5 million shares in Provident Financial (PFG), shares over which only a few days earlier he had offered a letter of intent to accept the all-paper offer from Non-Standard Finance (NSF). What a spiv!!...
I start with a brief discussion of my first longish Woodlarks training walk. 12 Miles done and dusted. As you consider my rather smelly feet please make a small donation to rogue bloggers for Woodlarks HERE. Then I look at Provident Financial (PFG) and mention BCA Marketplace (BCA) and Purplebricks (PURP) en passant before commenting on Malcolm Stacey's article of earlier on penny shares.
There are, in fact, two Neil Woodford disasters today. The other one is covered in bearcast HERE. Meanwhile, having updated on 28th December that Woodford Investment Management had increased to a more than 24% shareholding, a “Trading update” from Provident Financial (PFG) today – and, natch, the shares are currently circa 20% lower, heading towards 500p, on the back of it…
I start with a few thoughts on this, the birthday, of Martin Luther King. Then onto the two disasters for the £37 million smug bastard, Neil "nomates" Woodford: Netscientific (NSCI) and Provident Financial (PFG). I look at Big Sofa (BST) and Yourgene (YGEN) , my nap for Q1, then onto Victoria Carpets (VCP) and finally a detailed laook at the fraud that is Eden Research (EDEN).
Early this year we showed the ten top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2018. How's the latest performance?...
Early this year we showed the ten top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2018. After the recent market slide and compared to end-September, how's the latest performance?...
Early this year we showed the ten top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2018. How's the latest performance?...
Early this year we showed the ten top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2018. After the latest month, how's performance?...
I have a stinking migraine and am very tired after a sleepless night so this podcast rattles through Provident Financial (PFG), Milestone (MSG), Feedback (FDBK), Amur Minerals (AMC) and, in depth, Arian Silver (DOG).
Shares in Provident Financial (PFG) are falling again today thanks to weekend press reports that it is sounding out investors about a £500 million rights issue. The big question is where does this leave Britain's most conceited fund manager Neil "nomates" Woodford whose funds own 23% of the equity.
As Neil Woodford is such a believer in transparency, he has pulled his monthly updates altogether so these monthly updates now take on a greater importance to provide much needed information to the long-suffering investors in the three funds. Can’t imagine why Woodford stopped them?
Loyal readers will know that I, like Mr Woodford, love a quiz and with my favourite week of the year fast approaching, I thought I’d run a (simpler) quiz with a Cheltenham-related prize. There’s only two questions, so I’m hoping for more than one entrant this time!
Early this year we showed the ten top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2018. Following the recent 'crash', how's performance?...
One wonders what Neil Woodford has been doing in the face of Cynical Bear’s onslaught against his funds. Reading Cynical’s pieces, it is clear that the Woodford house was edging ever closer to disaster. Now it seems that the effluent is indeed in collision with the air conditioning: we’ve had disasters at Purplebricks (PURP) and Capita (CPI), and there’s a stockmarket correction (at least we hope that’s all it is) underway. Oh, and we have numbers from the AA on Thursday – hardly the ideal time to take a hatchet to its dividend! So what has Mr Woodford been up to? Well, why change a winning formula!
My conclusion to The Big Short series over Christmas was that although it was a long-term play, Neil Woodford was only a few pieces of “bad luck” away from a speedier, more dramatic implosion. This week’s Capita (CPI) news is the second of those already and we’re only one month in. Further to the excellent pieces on Capita yesterday (HERE and HERE), a few further observations on the wider Woodford story from me.
As I anticipated in my RM2 International (RM2) piece yesterday, the December monthly updates finally came out yesterday afternoon and I thought it appropriate to provide monthly updates on The Big Short in conjunction with those each month so here goes. Quick summary: it’s not getting any easier for Woodford.
Look, I’m trying to be nice. We were last told that it could be tits up for RM2 International (RM2) by the end of January and today we heard that it has found enough cash down the back of the sofa to last until the third week of February. Good news! The reality is that this is a cash guzzling uber-dog and highlights the predicament that Britain's most conceited fund manager Neil Woodford has got himself into.
I hope you enjoyed the two share tips earlier and thanks for the kind words from many of you abour our place in Greece. I start with a look at Strat Aero (AERO). I covered the dire maths earlier here but it is the sheer dishonesty of the placing that really annoys me. Then I look at more bad news for Nomates Woodford from Provident Financial (PFG) which cvould well up a zero. Then I cover UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) as its shares slide again and Arian Silver (AGQ) which is worthless. Adam Reynolds was not - as gleeful in house BB loon Wildes suggests - fired by Optibiotix (OPTI) - I explain why I remain uber bullish there. Finally today's interims from Vianet (VNET) are misleading and even after a 10% fall today the stock is a slam dunk sell.
Following a calamitous trading statement in August, there is now another “Trading Statement” announcement from Provident Financial (PFG) – this emphasising home credit business recovery plan progress and seeing the shares currently sparking higher. So, what’s the detail?...
I flagged up at the weekend why Neil "nomates" Woodford might be just a couple mmore high profile disasters away from disaster in terms of a flood of redemptions. Well it appears that some are not waiting for the implosion of Purplebricks and another Woodford car crash.
There is no doubt that ex Provident Financial (PFG) boss Peter Crook was a grossly overpaid and useless CEO. The £40 million he trousered in ten years is obscene given the share price collapse and nature of his departure last week. I have noted before that fat cat bosses give capitalism a bad name and allow those who seek to undermine the only way to make the world a better and more prosperous place to attack we capitalists. Idiots like Theresa May play to the gallery in joining in.
I certainly don’t wish to gloat at the recent misfortunes suffered by many of Neil Woodford’s investments, but the sorry spectacle provides some useful insights into the role of human nature in investing and business in general.
It is quite amazing to see just how few friends fund manager Neil Woodford has in the City these days. It is almost as if I am starting to feel that he is a kindred spirit. Neil, how about we have a joint Square Mile Christmas party for all of our friends in a telephone kiosk somewhere? The vast fees Nomates has charged for delivering three years of dismal underperformance do not play well but it is the arrogant insistence that Mr Market is always wrong because Nomates knows better that has unleashed such waves of schadenfreude after his latest disasters. But he still has one or two defenders who say "aha remember 2001" - but this Maginot defence does not wash.
Showing not an ounce of humility, the fund manager who seems to have at least three high profile disasters as week, Neil Woodford has posted a comment on his group's blog explaining why Provident Financial (PFG) shares are cheap after yesterday's disastrous warning. But before you rush out to buy it is worth noting that after the last warning (in June) Nomates Neil posted another blog. Nomates had chatted at length to management, he understood the score, the market was wrong and Nomnates had bought a stack more shares. There seems to be a pattern here.
