Money Manager Steven Van Metre admits that his macro thesis can be wrong in the short to intermediate-term but believes it will play out as interest rates collapse to zero. Those that are bullish on gold miners should also be bullish on bonds. He expects the GDX to fall and explains the relationship between it and the TLT. He believes bonds will rally, GDX will drop much lower, and then he can flip his portfolio into the junior miners. And falling mining equities often are a leading indicator of a coming liquidity event and a move lower by the broader equities.
Well folks you cannot say that I did not warn you. In fact it was just last weekend when I posted my most recent explicit podcast warning HERE. But it was one of many. In this podcast I look at what is causing the sell-off, what happens next and what stocks will be battered the most, both as a class and naming specific names.
I start with a warning that this is a beer and popcorn day as we watch wailing BBC presenters, snowflakes, ugly feminists and other losers wailing as Brett Kavanaugh joins the Supreme Court. I have written about the persecution of Kavanaugh extensively HERE and shall be celebrating tonight, as those involved in this witch hunt, shed tears. Bring it on. Next up: will the stockmarket crash this October and if so what to do? Here are a few practical tips for you all.
In today's bearcast I look at the danger of a stockmarket crash in light of a tweet from the great Donald Trump earlier today. I cover N4 Pharma (N4P), cue smutty schoolboy jokes as its shares flop, and then I take a detailed look at today's news from Minoan (MIN). If I was a shareholder I would be seething but should I be selling?
At the weekend we updated on performance of start of 2018 top shorted London-listed shares. At the commencement of the year we also showed Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2018. Following the recent 'crash', how's also their performance?...
Early this year we showed the ten top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2018. Following the recent 'crash', how's performance?...
Well it is not really a crash yet, whatever the fake news media say as they try to blame Brexit or Trump. But it could be. So why are shares falling and should you buy, sell or hold? All of this as well as some stock specific observations are made in this bearcast as I prepare to head to London to see my daughter portray Harold Wilson.
This is the second time this year Jim Rickards has predicted a major stockmarket crash. Maybe he will be right this time. In this podcast Jim discusses how most financial concepts are easy to understand. Dollar and gold are an inverse relationship, and gold has dropped due to recent dollar strength. Throughout 2016 and 2017 the dollar has been weakening. The Euro has risen against the dollar, and this weaker dollar has translated into higher prices for gold.
The rise of exchange traded funds (ETFs) is one of the more interesting topics in light of the ongoing general equity bull market. For the first time in history there are more indexes than stocks! Hence, the rising popularity of ETFs (which track indexed strategies) comes as no surprise. But could this be the cause of the next stockmarket crash? That is the thesis of Kenton Toews of Sprott who writes:
It is all very well saying that tiddly little companies like Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) or Eden Research (EDEN) are worthless cash guzzling frauds heading for 0p but they are just very hard to short. That both stocks will hit zero is a given. In the end frauds always run out of other people's money. What you want are stocks you can short which look almost certain to collapse. And right now you need them badly as a hedge. A hedge against what?
The first non-Tom article is #1, The explicit signs that a stockmarket crash is on its way... soon, by David Scott. This bodes well - the snakes and frigana may actually be drawing Tom's attention away from the market and back to his sabbatical.TW note you missed out this article which was actually the most read, modesty prevents me from saying who penned it. More Labour vote rigging!
Some investors are getting carried away with ‘Trump trades’. Now that he is elected we see the psychological optimism linked to cutting taxes, deregulation, and infrastructure spending being reflected in the stock market. David Skarica thinks the stock market is overvalued, and this upward trend won’t last long. He is preparing for a crash between the summer and fall- which is the common historical trend, as is a crash under a Republican majority.
I refer to my 8 Reasons Donald Trump will win podcast in this bearcast - you can listen to that HERE. Elsewhere I discuss the problem of a corrupted press with reference to today's Sunday Telegraph on Gulf Keystone (GKP). I then examine why I think the stockmarket might crash this fall. Finally I offer up a quote from Ayn Rand and challenge you to disagree with how, in 1957, she describes the sad world of 2016.
The FTSE 100 is down 6% in the first two weeks of January, the trend has turned down after a decent bounce during the fourth quarter of 2015. The S&P 500 has turned down too and in China, it is simply a matter of time before China's stockmarket makes a new low.
ShareProphets Press' fourth e-book of 2015 is by Tom Winnifrith and the ShareProphets team. In it, the editors of the UK's most compelling financial website look for the seven shares that are worth buying after the stockmarket crash.
Issue 4 of the UK Investor Show Magazine is now out and can be accessed below. Jim Mellon, Rob Terry (prison update), the stockmarket crash (a buying opportunity?), Advanced Oncotherapy, 6 other share tips, accounting for Geeks from myself and Chris Bailey. There is something for everyone.
I greatly enjoyed the video below concerning the great Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff was right. He called the 2008 market meltdown to total derision. Seven years later we are here again and so as well as scanning Bulletin Boards for the usual suspects (Quindell, Daniel Stewart, Worthington) for examples of sheer idiocy you might check out what the bulls are saying as their predictions look ever more useless. As always post your entries in the comments section below by midnight Sunday.
I am of the view that the market correction will continue and that a key reason is debt. This will also be good for gold. Logic and reason is on my side but so too, apparently is the Torah. My colleagues at Palisade Capital this week interviewed Jeb Handwerger who is a scholar of the Torah and a student of Yeshiva. Is there really a connection between the biblical prophecy of the Shemitah as we near the end of a potentially ominous seven year cycle?
Most folks will not enjoy reviewing their portfolios this morning after last week's stockmarket meltdown. Even the man who says that he is better at stock picking than Warren Buffett, Mr Chris Oil, is having a bad time. To lighten the mood we ask you for captions for any of the pictures below - the deadline for entries is midnight Sunday. Come on Malcolm, give us your bullish take on these reminders that nothing changes....
A few house points on Chris Oil, Dan Levi and flip flop Ben Turney then onto the stockmarket crash. Yes I called this right and comrade Malcolm Stacey er...less right. Getafix says he is not panicking TODAY ( why not?) but I now update my analysis and explain why shares may spike higher short term ( but many not) but why medium term I stay bearish. And where I am especially bearish.
Is the stockmarket over-valued? Yes of course it is. Will it correct? Yes. In September? I don't know. But that is the thesis of David Morgan who was interviewed this week by my colleagues at Palisade Radio. David also has some interesting thoughts on gold & silver price manipulation. Incidentally some of those valuation themes are very well articulated in Tom's valedictory bearcast today HERE
China is opening down another 2% today. Almost half the stocks out East are still halted or suspended so what is today’s (failing) panic reaction from the Authorities? Yes – arrest the bears, putt the pandas in cuffs because as we all know, the only reason shares fall is because of evil bears. Rob Terry really should list his latest fraud Quob Park in China.
You know that I am a stockmarket bear and so I find it hard to disagree with the best selling author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki who is making a big call for 2016. He was the guest of my colleagues at Palisade Capital on this week's podcast and makes some very valid points.
In 1999 there was the tech bubble, then came the housing bubble. What will be next? David Skarica believes we are building up to the zero interest rate bubble and that was the theme of an interview he recorded with my colleagues at Palisade Capital over the weekend. So equities must crash. Where is the value play? Gold & mining shares of course as Skarica explains clearly.
I do not really buy into the idea that the stockmarket will crash on any given day. Those who predict it seem to me to be like those who predict the second coming. There is a lot of noise before the event but then disappointment. However I do regard equities in a very bearish way and so...
I have been getting very worried during the last week that a stockmarket crash is looming. As a result all of my current buy recommendations are moved to HOLD bar French Connection, my most recent share tip HERE
Well you are a bullish lot are you not? It seems as if you are largely in agreement with our resident optimist Malcolm Stacey, in not foreseeing a stockmarket correction any time soon. I personally expect one within weeks if not months as I explained in my video postcard last weekend HERE. In our poll last week we asked when you expected a correction of 10% or more. And you said:
Filmed outside his Greek Hovel where Tom Winnifrith is spending the summer, our site founder returns from a hard morning working in the fields to explain why he thinks that a stockmarket crash is looming.
In my weekend editorial on my Nifty Fifty website I will be explaining why I think that the stockmarket is likely to suffer a correction of 10-20% before Christmas. Others disagree – comrade Malcolm Stacey reckons that no such crash is on the cards. What do you think?