Blue Prism - a bearish reader opines & he is too damn right!

Published 1 day ago

I noted yesterday that Blue Prism (PRSM) was one of the most shorted shares on AIM. And having had a butchers at the numbers I can see why.

Reader Post of the Week - Some more Dignity data for the bears to feast upon

Published 1 day ago

If you listened to my bearcast of yesterday you will be in no doubt that I am aa big bear of Dignity (DTY) based on some simple maths. I take my hat off to a ShareProphets reader (Buy100ozSilver) for his maths in our comments section. His ( or her) post merits a wider audience.

Tom Winnifrith Boxing Day Bearcast, if Neil Woodford had a bad 2017 here is why 2018 will be much worse and soon

Published 27 days ago

The most excellent Cynical Bear series on the massive issues that Neil "Nomates" Woodford faces and questions he must answer drew to a close yesterday HERE. Now I go further pushing those questions just a bit more, asdking new ones and outlining three scenarions that could see the Nomates empire and all his funds crumble very quickly indeed. 

Beaufort on MySquar - is this the worst broker note of the year?

Published 103 days ago

Clearly no-one told Belfort Securities that its star client in the fraud sector, MySquar (MYSQ) was going to have a disastrous lack of profits warning today which exposed how it had massively misled investors for months. Because yesterday it urged its clients to fill their boots at 4.02p with a 21p target. At least this shows that at Belfort the Chinese walls between research and broking have no chinks in them. The shares are now 2.98p and are worth 0p. Over to Belfort.... 

Big Sofa Technology: Well, I was pretty close but what next?

Published 114 days ago

I’m not particularly good at being smug but it would be remiss of me not to give an update following Big Sofa’s (BST) interims on Friday as I was pretty spot on. For completeness, Tom has already covered his thoughts in a Bearcast and a separate article HERE and HERE respectively, but here’s my take on it.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: EVR has all the hallmarks of an AIM stock promote & its £75m valuation is crackers

Published 114 days ago

EVR Holdings (EVRH) is beloved of Bulletin Board Morons but is rightly lampooned by Cynical Bear earlier today HERE. I look at it and note that it has all the markings of an AIM stock promote and that its valuation, £75 million, is absurd and makes it ripe for shorting. Then I ask if £15 million is too much to earn for eight years of FTSE 100 failure? What about £43 million for eight years of success?

Big Sofa Technology: Interims preview – the bearish perspective

Published 120 days ago

I have been having some good natured debate with Tom on the pros and cons of Big Sofa Technology (BST) recently and, as ever, he has allowed me to present my bearish version of events in advance of next week’s interims in contrast to his bullish thoughts the most recent of which is HERE.

RM2 International: Interims preview – another Woodford debacle

Published 121 days ago

I’m continuing my look at forthcoming interims with the horror show that is the Woodford-backed RM2 International (RM2), first pointed out as an excellent bear tip by Graham Neary (HERE). One has to ask what the hell was Woodford thinking here?

Hugh Hendry calls it a day saying the market has got it wrong

Published 129 days ago

Hugh Hendry was one of the funniest and articulate of fund managers and for a while his Eclectica funds delivered - as bears - spectacular returns. But Mr Market went against him and he has now closed up shop with his main fund worth a meagre $30.6 million. His final parting shot is a letter in which he has given up on fighting fake news. Over to the great man

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - joke valuations at Sound Energy & MySQUAR

Published 130 days ago

If you are listening to bearcast today you must have subscribed to Shareprophets so I thank you. I start with management who are cleary wronguns at Real Good Foods (RGD) which is a disgrace and at Papillion (PPHP) which is far worse - hat tip Cynical Bear HERE. I look at Interserve (IRV). Its shares are slumping on a profits alert but the real horrors are the lies in the August 9 results statement. Still valued at £124 million this could halve again look at debt! Then it is onto MySquar (MYSQ) a good bet for a zero, and finally a trio of oilies, Range Resources (RRL) - its au revoir not goodbye - Pantheon (PANR) dreary and overvalued by a reasonable amount and Sound Energy (SOU) where the valuation is a 100% rum and coke.

How to Make Hay when an Over-Hyped Share Keeps on Rising

Published 136 days ago

Hello, Share Tasters. A famous bear who writes on this splendid website recently opined that a company with a crazily over-egged valuation can continue to grow its crazy valuation. This sounds like a ridiculous observation. Why should a share which is already far too pricey become even pricier?

Tips to Help Spot that Vital Moment when the Current Bull Market Turns into a Raging Bear.

Published 171 days ago

Hello, Share Bangers. There’s little doubt about it the good ship Shareland is entering very spooky waters. At any time now, the bull market will suddenly turn into a bear that will charge around the china shop. Mixed metaphors a speciality!

Lucian Miers continues his world war two theme as UK Oil & Gas shares surge again

Published 181 days ago

Lucian Miers' 3.1p short call on UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) seems to be, at present, right up there with most of the share tips of the market abuser Chris Oil in the pantheons of duff calls. The shares surged yesterday to 7.25p-7.3p. Ouch.

UK Oil & Gas - It is great fun to laugh at Lucian Miers but....remember Sound Energy

Published 187 days ago

Lucian Miers advised shorting UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) and went short himself at c3.1p, boasting that twice before he had made a packet on the short tack with this perennial darling of the educationally sub-normal wing of the provisional private investor army. The shares are now 4.65p and the Bulletin Boards and the comments section on this website are full of posts by folks laughing at my old friend, the Bard of the Boleyn. So has East London's most feared short seller lost his marbles as well as a vast amount of dosh?

Yes you should join Primary Bid NOW but do not take up its Toople offer whatever you do

Published 234 days ago

Primary Bid's latest offer is its first non AIM placement. It boasts this as an achievement. But the company is Toople (TOOP) a proud member of Cynical Bear's Sub Standard XI. It is a dog and while I urge you all to join Primary Bid now HERE, I also urge you not to take up this offer.

Notes from Underground: Devil is in the details

Published 239 days ago

Well all right, this is more like it. The first non-Tom article is #1, Infrastrata – cash crunch & sack-the-board General Meeting ahoy… so it’s strategic review time!, by Steve Moore.

Don't Be Glum, Chum. When the Market Crashes You Can Still Taste the Jam

Published 255 days ago

Hello Share Pinkers. As the markets are closed, I thought I might do a weekend piece to encourage you to carry on trading once the doors open again. We are constantly reminded on this legendary website that shares are overvalued and about to crumble. I don’t doubt it, though I’m fairly convinced the bull run has some months to go yet.

Paddington Bear tucks into JackpotJoy as a big short call

Published 308 days ago

There is split opinion on Standard & TSX listed JackpotJoy (JPY) both from people I highly respect. On the one hand Odey (not Crispin) are buyers and own a significant stake, and on the other hand we have Marc Cohodes who presented the bear case at Grants Conference here. 

Advanced Oncotherapy - Question 16: were you lying on November 24?

Published 321 days ago

Cynical Bear says that I am just being far too kind to Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) with my 15 questions earlier today. Oddly I have yet to get an answer and nor will I as the company contemplates insolvency and other matters. But back to Mr Bear who says I should have asked a 16th question concerning another possible case of lying.

Cobham Profit Warning Number Five: The Jaguar and the Tree - sell at 115p

Published 338 days ago

The legendary bear Robert W Wilson once mused about his modus operandi: “I’m not interested in climbing into a tree and wrestling the jaguar out of the tree. I am interested in someone shooting the jaguar out of the tree and then I will go and cut the thing apart

The Great Waseem on the "Seven Steps" of Cloudtag pump & hype

Published 382 days ago

Yesterday I tried to explain the psychology of AIM fraud and fraudsters with reference to both African Potash (AFPO) and Cloudtag (CTAG). The great bear raider Waseem Shakoor also published a note explaining the seven steps of Cloudtag hype to facilitate is main business of share issuance. As you'd expect it is a cracking read. Over to the great Waseem

ShareProphets share tip of the year Number 14: Cynical Bear says sell Nektan

Published 390 days ago

I wasn’t writing for Shareprophets a year ago but I called Nektan (NKTN) as my bear pick of the year on 14 January and it has played out as I envisaged with the share price dropping from its 31 December 2015 price of 130p to 32p today – a drop of 75%; but I think there’s still some way to go as I sense matters are coming to a head.

Video: Peter Schiff on carnage in the bond markets post Trump

Published 435 days ago

Folks have focussed on how shares have zoomed since Donald Trump won but what about the bond market which saw its worst week for five years? What does that mean and will it continue? Yes it will. That is the warning of libertarian hero and perma bear Peter Schiff in his latest podcast. 

Notes from Underground: It can't happen here. Or there. Oh, I give up.

Published 435 days ago

Last Tuesday's US election results was my worst nightmare. Not that a demagogue has won the White House. Not that said demagogue has surrounded himself with an array of nutcases and god botherers. It's not even that electoral success depends on lies and false promises and facts mean nothing.

As the FTSE100 sails through 7,000 what to do?

Published 476 days ago

No doubt raging bull Malcolm Stacey will be crowing and snarling bear Tom Winnifrith will be growling as he changes the nappies: the FTSE100 has, again, popped up through the 7,000 mark. We can expect round 4,953 of the ding-dong between those two in the coming days. But what to make of it – are we on the cusp of a cracking selling opportunity or should we be filling our boots? And if we treat the latest gyrations as a chance to offload, what to do with the proceeds?

Why the Bouncing Bulls Will Continue to Savage the Boring Bears

Published 485 days ago

Hello Share Trimmers.  The markets are closed as I write, so let’s just take a look at the broadest picture possible when trying to predict if our shares will rise or fall. As you will have guessed this is a piece to encourage you in buying rather than selling in our golden game. 

Tern – placing at just 8p as share slide continues

Published 552 days ago

AIM-listed jam-tomorrow investment company Tern plc (TERN) has announced yet another fundraising this morning – this time at just 8p per share, raising £0.525 million. That won’t have gone down too well with those who ponied up at 12p back in February when the company raked in £1.1 million, or those who contributed to the £0.72 million placing at 12p last August.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Avanti Communications bull vs bear

Published 555 days ago

I had the weirdest of phone calls on Friday from a chap who insists that as a bear of Avanti Communications (AVN) I have got it wrong. I have spoken about his thesis to Lucian and having thought about it over lunch at the White Bear having run the gauntlet of Shipston's Bulgarian Big Issue seller, I am more sure than before that I am not wrong to remain bearish. I discuss the bull vs bear debate giving both sides of the argument and my conclusion.

Nektan – Another disappointing trading update – any hope?

Published 570 days ago

I first wrote about Nektan (NKTN), my bear pick of the year, in mid-January HERE with the share price having already had a bad start to the year down to 107p from 130p at the close of 2015. Following yesterday’s pre-close trading update for the year to 30 June 2016, it closed down 23% on the day at a mere 47p. Time to reassess my position.

Papillon Holdings - FD engages in a quick spot of tax minimization

Published 573 days ago

Recently listed Papillon Holdings (PPHP) is - as Cynical Bear pointed out here - clearly an overvalued rum and coke. But in its brief existence it has at least achieved something: helping the FD slash his tax bill. Oh what jolly good news for the crony capitalists, coke and hookers all round.

SyQic - now shares suspended, is the CEO playing it straight?

Published 573 days ago

Cynical Bear has already covered the stinking pus filled boil that is the bid for SyQic (SYQ) by its own CEO Jamal Hassim. Today it just got even smellier with the suspension of the shares.

Video: Uber bear economics from David Scott at UK Investor Show

Published 620 days ago

This s why so many of us on this website are so bearish at a macro level. David Scott of Andrews Gwynne articulates the bear economics case very clearly. Enjoy!

Telecom Plus sliding on Berenberg downgrade - I'm a bit confused

Published 656 days ago

Shares in Telecom Plus (TEP) are down 40p to 843p thanks to a downgrade of stance from buy to hold by Berenberg in the note below. The target price comes down from 1400p to 1000p so with upside at the start of the day of 14% surely that makes the shares cheap? Whatever. It seems an anodine note to me. I remain a bear as per Kevin Ashton's most awesome analysis HERE but you make up your own mind

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 11 March - Being uber bearish and being a mean bastard to wronguns like Lawson

Published 681 days ago

I repeat my request re itunes - please go give Bearcast a 5* rating now. Then I refer to Amanda's piece earlier which is a compelling lesson in why its right to be a bear. Finally I explain why I am a mean bastard when dealing with Dr Harold Shipman, oops I meant Roger Lawson of ShareSoc.

Craven House Capital - The 100% Joke Continues - What is the real value of Pressfit Holdings ?

Published 689 days ago

Cynical Bear showed what a total joke, AIM listed Craven House Capital (CRV) was. Now here is another total killer. If Nomad Spark was not aware of our full coverage yesterday from CB (HERE) it is now. And it should resign at once, this company is simply not investment grade material. It is uninvestable crap. And that brings me to Pressfit- a company that I have lambasted before HERE. 

Stelios says Fastjet profit forecasts fantasy, says cash crisis looming as he calls EGM

Published 692 days ago

Oh dear. Baby Bear called this one to 0p at Gold & Bears HERE since when shares in Fastjet (FJET) have soared but now the chickens are coming home to roost with Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou warning that the company has misled investors and is facing a cash crunch.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 25 Feb: Bingo Bango Bongo & the lie of Business against Brexit

Published 697 days ago

I end with a look at Bango (BGO) and why I would not be tempted. I start with a look at the markets and why I remain a bear avec mon ami le grenouille Thierry, despite the markets having a big up day. Most of the podcast is dedicated to taking apart the establishment managers and other lunatics who make up the 200 business-persons against Brexit. They are wrong and they do NOT speak for business. 

Hey Morons - what are your Daniel Stewart shares really worth? Ask Waz Shakoor if he's still feeling generous?

Published 721 days ago

There are some folks out there, notably on the LSE Asylum, that think that an unlisted Daniel Stewart (DAN) which is almost out of cash is actually worth anything? Think again, morons.

Notes from Underground - It's all Greek to us

Published 820 days ago

It was a photo finish between the Globo (GBO) bear report and Tom's victory at the High Court for most-read story this week, but, ultimately, the Greeks win out. Possibly not so much for their shareholders.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 4th July, Independence is on my mind

Published 933 days ago

Happy Independence day to our American listeners. My prayers are that tomorrow Greece votes for freedom and votes Oxi! But will it? And what does that mean for the Euro and shares. I note Goldman Sachs claims that a Nai vote will see global equities rise by 10%. Hmmm, I think it misses the bear in the China shop. A few thoughts brought to you from Athens in today's podcast.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 30 June No 1 - Felon Charlie Gibson, Sefton & Impairment

Published 937 days ago

Before I turn to Sefton and the wider issue of impairment (or not) on the AIM casino I am still bristling after being rubbed up the wrong way last night by an apologist for convicted felon Charlie Gibson and so until I get bored I wish to remind you of why Gibson is a felon (HERE). Then onto today's business. To give flip flop a break there are a few comments on Sefton's results and why I am still a bear. Then the issue of asset impairment and today's Kansas news vindicates a lot of what Dan Levi and I said about Jimmyliar Ellerton. But it raises the wider issue of inadequate impairment reviews on the AIM casino.

Still Short Plus 500. Risk Reward attractive at 370p

Published 955 days ago

I don’t know much about Playtech or its “colourful” founder Teddy Sagi (briefly imprisoned as a lad for grave deceit, bribery and insider trading) but they have certainly done no favours to bulls and bears alike in bidding 400p per share in cash for Plus 500 (PLUS).

Video interview from the UK Investor Show Blogger's Cafe: the UK's leading bear Lucian Miers

Published 993 days ago

Lucian Miers is now widely recognised as the most astute bear in Britain giving his enormous attention to detail and meticulous research. He puts the forensics into short selling. At the UK Investor Show as well as dominating the main stage bears session, Lucian recorded a short video interview. He can be followed on twitter @Lucianmiers and writes a weekly short letter on the Nifty Fifty website

Video of presentation by Rightster at UK Investor Show 2015

Published 994 days ago

I have called this one correctly as a bear but fair dues to Rightster (RSTR) for still having the balls to turn up and present at UK Investor Show.

Oil, Building and Life Sciences – That’s the Way to Do it!

Published 1006 days ago

Hello Share Breakers. Well, the strain was too much for me. I said earlier that I had turned a lot of my shares into cash. It seemed I had moved overnight from being a bull to a bear.

ASOS plc – interim results, valuation again looking ludicrous?

Published 1027 days ago

Shares in online fashion retailer ASOS (ASC) currently trade higher today on the back of a results announcement for the six months ended 28th February 2015 – which included that “we are confident of our outlook for the remainder of the financial year”. Does this though look to justify a further move ahead to a current 3800p share price?

Tom Winnifrith Seminar Presentation video - why you should be bearish on shares and 5 stocks to sell

Published 1028 days ago

I tried to offer a balanced view so in the first part of this series I offered the bull case on shares HERE. Now for the bear case and it should be clear where my true feelings lie. I end with five stocks to sell.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - the Disgrace and Omnishambles that is Gulfsands Petroleum

Published 1039 days ago

As a long term bear from more than 100p down I note with grim satisfaction that following its latest admissions Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) sees its shares at just 25p. I warned you. This is a tale of disgraceful boardroom antics as well as a cash crisis. I name the guilty men and have kind advice for both the new board and those investors who ignored me and listened to others and stayed on the shareholder list.

Tom Winnifrith's BearCast - 15 December, Quindell not mentioned once!

Published 1134 days ago

It's a first. A daily podcast not mentioning Quenron (QPP) at all. But for the record its shares dived by 7.2% to close at just 38.5p. Only 38.5p to go to fair value. Instead I discuss Ludorum, Mysale, Naibu, China Chaintek, Enables IT, Ultrasis, Touchstone Gold, Beacon Hill and why I remain an equities bear. However I reveal a very small AIM company in which we have just made a material (for us) investment.

Am I the only remaining bear in Avanti?

Published 1150 days ago

One of the big market mysteries of the last couple of months has now been solved. Why has the price of Avanti Communications (AVN) being going steadily upwards despite results that appear to confirm the worst fears of the bears? Why has the astute hedge fund Ennismore been reducing its short position?  Why has Avanti uber bear Mathew Earl – The Dark Destroyer -  gone strangely silent as the share price has ticked relentlessly North?

Low interest rates have created the biggest stockmarket bubble in history

Published 1219 days ago

You know that I am an equities bear. So too is Gerald Celente, the well-known precious metals investor. His view is that we are heading for stockmarket disaster as we pump up the biggest bubble in history. This view was clearly explained in an interview he gave to my colleagues at Palisade Capital this week.

ShareProphets Readers Back Malcolm Stacey NOT Tom Winnifrith on house prices – they are bullish

Published 1236 days ago

Every year back in the 1980s and 1990s the esteemed brokerage house of Wood Mac would poll institutional investors in oil stocks on where they thought oil prices were heading. The result was always the same. The consensus was that the next 12 months would be the same as the past 12 months. Maybe how that is how the human mind works. And perhaps that is why ShareProphets readers this weekend said that they were bullish on house prices. Or perhaps it is just that they like Malcolm Stacey (a bull) more than TW (a bear).

You're All Making Me Nervous.

Published 1236 days ago

Hello Share Sharpers: The Footsie is doing so well that even I'm getting nervous. I've been saying for about six months now that UK shares are largely undervalued. A lot of very distinguished analysts, including Uncle Tom and others on this stupendous website take the opposite view.

Equities to slump by 30-40% soon says Marc Faber

Published 1240 days ago

You know that I am bearish on equities. I explained why last week HERE. But my bearishness is nothing on that of celebrated market commentator Marc Faber who sees shares falling by up to 40% and soon. This week my colleagues from Palisade Capital interviewed Marc and he explained why he was so pessimistic.

Why Uncle Tom is Wrong in Saying I'm Wrong.

Published 1267 days ago

Though he put it more politely, Uncle Tom Winnifrith has written again to say that my view that shares will keep on rising is a lot of bull. Well, a bear should be able to recognise a bull in the big wide City.

Telecom Plus – my previous bear call on the shares correct, but what now?

Published 1285 days ago

I previously updated on this website on Telecom Plus (TEP), which trades as ‘the Utility Warehouse’ and is the UK's only fully integrated provider of a range of utility services spanning both the communications and energy markets, in April with the shares then at 1780p – concluding that I’d require a lower prospective rating before considering an investment (see HERE). Post a trading statement earlier this week and with the shares currently at 1312p would I buy?.

ShareProphets (Prophets of Doom), REM, Bulletin Board Morons – a FINAL word

Published 1286 days ago

On twitter, on various bulletin boards and on the comments section here on ShareProphets  and elsewhere we have come under sustained attack for 24 hours – let me set the record straight. And then I can get back to dealing with the snakes, rats and bats that infest my home for the summer in Greece.

ASOS – Morgan Stanley sticks the knife in - £25 target

Published 1319 days ago

I am an ASOS (ASC) bear and explained last week why I think the shares should be at £23 - HERE. Natch the City’s brokers all used phrases such as “buying opportunity” after the most recent profits warning. Heck they seek corporate mandates rather than handing out decent advice. But hat’s off to Morgan Stanley. It has broken ranks with a bearish note out today. Good on you fellas.

Gold breaks to the downside

Published 1334 days ago

Gold’s sudden collapse this week is going to have caught out a lot of bulls. Unfortunately I am on the wrong side of this trade, but thanks to my MIDAS analysis last week, I escaped with a minimal loss. The latest small plunge in gold is a real confidence sapper. Just when it looked like the yellow metal was gaining some traction, the bears swung back into action and now there are questions over the durability of this year’s rally. Thankfully, though, it’s not all bad news.

Gulf Keystone – IMS : Good News…for the bears

Published 1349 days ago

Oh dear, oh dear, today’s trading statement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) is a bit of a dog’s doo doo. I fear that the bears will enjoy it and having suggested that the stock might be a trading buy on the basis that grossly overpaid CEO Todd Kozel might be about to get his P45, I now revert to my normal sell stance – so far utterly vindicated with the share price having dived today to 91p.


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