Results

Carpetright – “significantly behind” profit warning & what does it mean for finances?

Published 5 days ago

Carpet and floor coverings retailer, Carpetright (CPR) has updated on trading for the 11 weeks ended 13th January – commencing that “trading in the important post-Christmas period has been significantly behind expectations” and also including “the severity of the decline in footfall over this key trading period and our more cautious view of the outlook for the balance of the year leads to a significant reduction in our full year expectations”. What does this mean in terms of financials?...

Dignity - nothing guaranteed (except a 25% price cut and a falling share price)

Published 5 days ago

As the old saying goes there is nothing guaranteed except death and taxes. Funnily enough I rarely have seen the announcement of a 25% cut in a product price helping a share price either...and that brings us to the large UK funeral operator Dignity (DTY).

Savannah Petroleum acquisition looks good value - buy

Published 10 days ago

Whenever a relatively small oil and gas company manages to raise a substantial amount of money it gets my attention, especially when you consider what the market has been like for this sector in recent times.

Why I would still avoid Range Resources

Published 28 days ago

Those who have been around the AIM market for a while will probably remember a company called Range Resources (RRL), and its infamous CEO Peter Landau.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Chapter 2) – The debt and liquidity crisis

Published 32 days ago

Continuing  my festive series on The Big Short, Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), having highlighted yesterday the huge unquoted risk within the portfolio and having to clean up after its big brother, the Equity Income Fund, I wanted to turn next to concerns I have over its debt levels which leads on to liquidity issues.

Polymetal looks a great buy at the current price

Published 44 days ago

Some investors avoid companies which operate in Russia and the surrounding area, but I believe that they are missing out if they take this approach with Polymetal International (POLY). The FTSE-250 precious metals miner has operations in Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia and ever since listing has been returning cash to investors via dividends, and from the current share price of around 849p, I can see plenty of scope for capital appreciation as well.

Debt financing would give Vast Resources a boost - speculative buy

Published 109 days ago

The hardest thing for many of the smaller miners is actually making it to the production stage, and there are many that never get that far.

Tom Winnifrith bonus Bearcast - what will you do when you get fired? And now that interest rates are already rising?

Published 113 days ago

I note some of the comments made about the demise of Monarch Airlines and add my critique. What really struck me is how the 2000 staff will each get just one week's pay. How will they cope? I was today given some data on UK consumer debt and savings levels which is jaw dropping and terrifying. It gets worse. The interest rates we pay on our debts are already starting to rise. Again how will the consumer cope? And what does this all mean for your portfolios and your personal finances?   

Why I'm happy with the Central Asia Metals acquisition

Published 119 days ago

If I’m being completely honest then I have to admit that I was somewhat annoyed when an RNS from Central Asia Metals (CAML) initially landed to say that trading in the shares had been temporarily suspended pending the acquisition of a large asset. That annoyance though was largely driven by a shorter term view, as shares in the company had been doing very well and the price was increasing steadily in the run up to the financial results, which were expected to be good and with yet another high yielding dividend to be paid. Alongside that copper was flying and had just topped the $3.10/lb level.

It's the Debt Stupid! - Sprott

Published 125 days ago

The debt timebomb has not gone away. In fact it is bigger than ever and that has massie implications for all of us, the central theme of this month's newsletter from the world's biggest investor in resource stocks, Sprott Asset Management. It writes:

B'jesus I live near the UK's personal debt hot spot

Published 129 days ago

One of the great pleasures of a Sunday morning is reading the Sunday press or - because i am not completely antediluvian - reading various bits and bobs online without the threat of newsprint getting everywhere.  Pacing through the Sunday Times business section on my laptop i almost spat out my morning coffee when I read: 

Gulf Keystone is a very different company these days - buy

Published 134 days ago

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) was one of the most hyped up oil companies that I have ever seen during my time in the markets, and although that all ended in tears, I think it could be worth another look now as it has changed a lot since those days.

Breaching banking Covenants - Telit and R4E - which firm did not break AIM rules & commit financial crime

Published 145 days ago

Yesterday shares in R4E (R4E) fell sharply after a profits warning and a warning that it may breach its covenants in the third quarter. I am a shareholder in R4E and happen to think the fall is way overdone, but that is for another time. I want to look at how it handled the covenant issue and what that tells you about the financial crime at Telit (TCM) - which morally bankrupt Nomad FinnCap is okay with.

EnQuest could be even cheaper after its interims - following problems at Kraken

Published 146 days ago

Delays to the Kraken field reaching full production levels could prove costly for EnQuest (ENQ), as it will leave a large gap in expected revenues up until that point.

Wizard Company Expands in the Magical Market of Family Leisure

Published 152 days ago

Hello, Share Swirlers. There is a common kind of family which spoils its children rotten with entertainment cliches. You know, the two parents and two kids who just have to go to Disneyland, Legoland, Centreparks et al. A company which makes a load of dosh out of catering to this daft demand is Merlin (MERL). It operates Legolands here, there and everywhere, together with Thorpe Park, Chessington and Alton Towers. It also owns the ever-popular Madame Tussauds.

Does WPP stand for 'What Profit Progression'?

Published 154 days ago

Too many years ago to remember as a fledgling analyst and junior portfolio manager, I was told by an old hand that 'WPP is the company with the greatest correlation to the FTSE-100'. I have no idea - nor the boring Excel skills - to say whether this is true but the notion that the world's largest advertising company should broadly share the same ups and downs as the very international main UK market index makes quite a bit of sense.

Mirada trading statement, feel that cashburn - placing ahoy

Published 163 days ago

With apologies to my fellow bear Matt Earl, the Dark Destroyer, who is a NED at Mirada (MIRA) but today's trading statement moves swiftly from gushing about jam tomorrow to a a damning admission of the monumental cashburn which leave the balance sheet holed beneath the waterline. It is placing ahoy and for a company of this size that means bucket shops and a deep discount

Because it is easy - Kennedy on Space, the World today on debt-binging

Published 163 days ago

In a world in which "we do these things because they're easy", the outcome will eventually be very difficult and painful. On September 12, 1962, President John F. Kennedy gave a famous speech announcing the national goal of going to the moon by the end of the decade.  In a memorable line, Kennedy said we would pursue the many elements of the space program "not because they are easy, but because they are hard.Both nationally and internationally the overriding economic philosophy is currently "we do these things because they're easy" and relying on debt to pay today's expenses is at the top of the list. What's easier than using a line of credit to buy whatever you want or need? Nothing's easier than borrowing money, especially at super-low rates of interest.

Ariana – gold price, production news and share price

Published 164 days ago

After my mea culpa of June 20th we have had further news. It has taken a bit of time to digest, but overall it looks positive to me, if rather laced with jam-tomorrow. With the share price finally off its low point of just 1.25p, let’s look through the detail.

Kaz Minerals offers a buying opportunity on this dip

Published 164 days ago

Kaz Minerals (KAZ) is a great example of the extent that commodity prices can effect larger miners, and the recovery in copper prices has seen the share price trading at multiples of where it was just 18 months ago.

Snoozebox Holdings – when will the lender pull the plug?

Published 167 days ago

Snoozebox(ZZZ) interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2017 out yesterday showed a reduced loss of £1,006,000 down from £2,126,000 in the prior period. Worryingly for long suffering shareholders, the contribution to overheads was only £176,000 down from £986,000. 

Entu equity holders face wipe out - yet some PIs continue to buy!

Published 172 days ago

Over the years I’ve watched the dying stages of a number of companies with interest, and in many cases you see a similar pattern in terms of share price movement.

Wincanton's Softened Share Price May Be a WIN-ner for You

Published 190 days ago

Hello Share Swivellers. Wincanton (WIN) is not a horse racing set-up, but a haulier and warehouse provider. Doesn’t sound too exciting, until you realise how much modern retailers rely on somewhere to put their stuff before they sell it over the internet.

Didn’t wait for the bear market to announce its safe arriva

Published 198 days ago

Markets are starting to adjust to the idea that interest rates are going up and they are now questioning exactly what this means. This generally means less risk-taking, which means lower asset prices. We are at a point where small shifts in absolute terms have an outsize relative impact. If interest rates rise from 5% to 5.25%, that’s not a big move. But if they rise from 0.25% to 0.5%, they’ve doubled. 

How About Ocado - if You Think On-line Shopping is Set to Get Even Stronger?

Published 201 days ago

Hello Share Smoothers. Ocado (OCDO) is one of those annoying companies which does not give you a clue as to what it does by its name. It is in fact an online supermarket. And it should have been called something like ‘The On-Line Supermarket.’ Never mind. Silly names is just one of my personal irritants in the share picking game.

Snoozebox – It woke from its deep sleep briefly but is there opportunity here?

Published 206 days ago

Continuing the sleep-related theme, I wanted to take a look at Snoozebox (ZZZ) that rose from its slumber on Thursday following some developments and the release of its year-end results, although it looks to have dropped off again by the close on Friday. I wonder whether there is a turnaround play here.

Saturday caption Contest - March to end Austerity now!

Published 207 days ago

The UK has the highest national debt in the EU, we are running a stonking budget deficit so that debt is growing each year and spending on heath, education, welfare, foreign aid and the works has risen year on year under the wicked Tories. Bastards. That's what I call austerity! But it seems the nation wants a change and poor students, welfare recipients, millionaires from Islington and public sector workers, only kept alive by food banks, will be marching again today in London to demand that the General Election result be over-turned. End austerity now by supplying a caption for the photo below in the comments section - the deadline is midnight tonight ( 1 July).

eServGlobal – interims argue “strong outlook” & Homesend “sales expansion”, but what about the financials?

Published 208 days ago

eServGlobal (ESG) has announced results for its half year ended 30th April 2017 including “a strong outlook for the year” for the core business and that the Homesend joint venture payment hub “is experiencing a sales expansion which it expects to become more significant across the remainder of 2017”. So why do the shares remain sub 6p, well down from more than 8p reached earlier this year?...

Mitie Is No Mouse at Cost Cutting and Finding New Customers

Published 215 days ago

Hello Share Seekers. Times have not been pucker for firms which claw a lot of business from local councils and other organisations. Government cuts have caused so many local authorities to cut back on their awards of business to outside contractors. Mitie (MTO) is one such firm.

InterQuest – attempted robber barons respond to Defence Document, admit their offer “constrained”…

Published 216 days ago

Lambasted for a “materially undervalues” 42p per share offer, the InterQuest (ITQ) attempted management buyout team at Chisbridge Ltd has made a “Response to Defence Document”

Drowning in debt Avanti Coms takes on more debt, is classed as non investment grade & exposed for misleading (again)

Published 222 days ago

You are drowning in debt so what to do? In this crazy world you take on more debt! and so Avanti Communications (AVN) today announced that it had secured a new $100 million debt facility. Read carefully and you will see what an absolute nightmare this news is.

St Ives – shares soar on “a much improved performance”… but that’s compared to a “materially below” profit warning

Published 224 days ago

Shares in marketing services group St Ives (SIV) are currently soaring higher on the back of a trading statement announcement, including that the first four months of its second half have delivered a much improved performance. However, that’s compared to a “materially below” profit warning in the first half…

Ashtead's awesome strategy and numbers... so what to do now with the shares?

Published 225 days ago

I last mused about industrial plant and tool hire company Ashtead (AHT) fourteen months ago, since when the shares have basically doubled. Happy days...but no resting on the laurels because correctly you should be asking the question of 'so what do we do right here and right now?' Fortunately, the company puckered up its full year results today so all the latest information is to hand.

Goody, Goody! How a Hung Parliament Should Be Brilliant for Most Share Owners

Published 226 days ago

Hello Share Pippers. That incorrigible pessimist Uncle Tom has argued on this starry website that the election result is dire for business. So we can expect our portfolios to lose value from now on? I think not. Here are my reasons why a hung parliament is actually good for business.

This Haulier Lives Up to its Own Epic Code - WIN

Published 233 days ago

Hello Share Curlers. The last time I brought road hauliers Wincanton (WIN) to your notice was around Christmas last year. The share price then was 242p. Now it’s 304p. So a small victory. However, recent figures from this Wiltshire-based outfit give me cause to think there is further scope for the share price to travel.

Hayward Tyler – possible offer & debt ‘cans’ again kicked slightly further down the road

Published 237 days ago

Previously writing on Hayward Tyler (HAYT) I noted a bank facilities extension to the end of May, following an extension of the deadline for a possible offer for the company by Avingtrans plc to also late May. And now…

21st Century Technology – from “good” recent progress in December, to now-stated “poor” second half 2016 financial performance!

Published 243 days ago

Fleet and passenger systems company 21st Century Technology (C21) has, tardily, announced results for the 2016 calendar year, though with CEO Russ Singleton emphasising “we made real strides last year with major framework renewals, organisational restructuring and innovative new sales”. Sounds promising. However...

SCANDAL: Redx Pharma – goes tits up & blames thieving scousers, just 3 months after raising £12m

Published 244 days ago

It seems to be perfectly acceptable for companies on the Casino to complete fundraisings inadequate to see them solvent. Yesterday at 4.22pm shares in AIM-listed Redx Pharma (REDX) were suspended “pending an announcement” by AIM Regulation (the RNS following at 4.35pm – bit of a rush there fellas?) At no-one-is-watching o’clock (6.35pm: after-after-hours) the company announced that administrators had been appointed - just 3 months after the company had apparently raised £12 million in a placing and open offer. Coke and hookers all round for the Nomad and Brokers concerned. Stale bread and water for those sold this particular pup.

Elect a clown, get a Circus

Published 247 days ago

"A credit crunch is brewing and when it happens, the UK is going to get hurt."  These are not my words but the start of the Editorial in this weekend’s Guardian. The article then went on to say "That is the message emerging from senior executives in the financial services industry, who do not think Britain has changed that much since the 2008 credit disaster and the devastating crash that followed. Three developments lie at the heart of this disturbing analysis: spectacular growth in the sale of second mortgages, car loans and credit cards." I would heartily agree with these comments as this is my experience too. But what the article fails to say is that the UK is not alone in this debt bubble - once more it is a Global issue.

The graph that makes the case for Not Voting at all - the three main parties are ALL deficit denying liars

Published 250 days ago

The graph below is terrifying and makes a strong case for not voting at all in the General Election. It tracks the tax burden - the amounts the State takes from its citizens as a percentage of GDP. This is horrifying.

Unless you are an unbending yield muncher… sell Vodafone here

Published 253 days ago

Near the top of the FTSE-100 leaderboard today is the telecoms behemoth Vodafone (VOD), which proudly said earlier today that it had enjoyed a ‘good year, gaining share’. Of course the headline profit numbers were full of the negative impact of a non-cash impairment of €5 billion relating to its Indian business. But don’t worry about this! ‘Organic adjusted EBITDA growth of 4%-8%’ is expected and, with €5 billion of free cash flow and a 2% hike in the dividend, the yield munchers will be bought off. Right here, right now though, I would sell Vodafone shares.

Stanley Gibbons - a curate's egg update

Published 256 days ago

Stanley Gibbons (SGI) “is pleased to announce the sale of a major part of its Interiors division and to provide an update on its current trading and the restructuring”

The United States Is Hosting A Debt Party – $2,000 Gold Is Coming

Published 261 days ago

Palisade has been a perma bull of gold. We think that its target for the yellow metal is er..optimistic. But we are bulls and anyone without material gold exposure - c15% - is, in our view, bonkers. Anyhow from Palisade a reminder of the bull case.

The Swiss Central Bank is buying up Apple Inc. shares with printed money

Published 261 days ago

Presently the markets are blissfully ignorant of the threat that imminent global central bank tightening poses on risky highly valued assets. Despite the market’s current perceived calm facade and low perception of risk, the vast chasm that lies between perceived risk and reality is greater than ever before.

Tesco May Be Heavily Traded - But I Rather Wish I'd Not Bothered Myself

Published 265 days ago

Hello Share Grapplers. It seems that two of the most popular shares being bought and sold by we great band of punters at the mo are Lloyds Group (LLOY) and Tesco (TSCO). I looked at Lloyds yesterday, reckoning it has the making of a good buy because of slow, if unspectacular, progress revealed in its last quarterly figures. I’ll turn to another well-traded share, Tesco, today.

Tom Thinks I'm Talking Tripe. No, I'm Not

Published 267 days ago

Hello Share Toddlers. My weekend piece suggesting we don’t sell our shares too soon received a critical response from Uncle Tom. It’s a return to the familiar battle between me in the blue corner and the sage of Bristol in the red one.

Damn the Deficits, Huge Tax Cuts Ahead!

Published 269 days ago

Donald Trump is promising the biggest tax cuts in US history. Reaganomics on steroids. But can the US afford it given its gaping deficit and debt? Over to libertarian gold bug and hero of the people Peter Schiff...

Malcolm Stacey talking bollocks: ShareProphets Translation Service

Published 269 days ago

Malcolm Stacey yesterday offered up a bank holiday sermon on why shares are heading higher and on economics. Sadly old Getafix operates in a post fact era and thus you can read his original article HERE but, since my co-poisoner here in Greece is "feeling unwell" after a late night, I have the time to offer up a translation. My comments are in bold.

I'd Like to Be In Amerisur. Well, Actually I Already Am

Published 275 days ago

Hello Share Snappers. It’s a bit disconcerting when you elect a share to bring to your notice and then find it appears on the list of most shorted shares on this stupendous website.

Yes, Shares Are Expensive, But Perhaps Not as Pricey as They're Gonna Be

Published 277 days ago

Everyone who attended this month’s UK Investor Show will be wondering whether to go into cash. Most analysts on the stage, as opposed to big cheeses supporting their own companies, were in a pessimistic mode. For example, that excellent commentator David Scott (Dr Doom) did a very scary presentation exclusively on the subject of forthcoming market disaster.

Orosur looks under-valued as gold shows continued strength

Published 280 days ago

Orosur Mining (OMI) certainly isn’t amongst the more popular resource stocks on AIM and trading volumes are often verging on non-existent, but I believe that many are missing an opportunity here as they go chasing rainbows with companies that are years away from production, assuming they ever actually get to that stage!

When all this blows up

Published 296 days ago

Last week the German newspaper Handelsblatt reported that leaked documents they’ve seen from the country’s finance ministry warn that a so-called hard Brexit would have ‘grave economic and systematic consequences for Europe.

Red flag bingo at JackpotJoy

Published 302 days ago

I am still working on a few details for the next part of my main article. However, as a brief interlude let’s play a little game. We will see how many red-flags we can find on JackpotJoy (JPJ).

Could the Wall Street Crash Happen Again? And If so, Will it Come Soon?

Published 312 days ago

Hello Share Tusslers. The majority of private shareholders at the UK Investor Show at Westminster in a couple of weeks’ time will be sitting on huge gains over the year. They will be in a jollier mood than we’ve seen them in a long time.

Igas – hats off to the board

Published 313 days ago

I never thought I’d be saying this, but it is hats off the to the board which looks to have saved the company. This morning AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) updated on its rescue refinancing and it looks to be a done deal. Shareholders will be feeling the pain, but as we have continually warned as the share price declined this was an inevitable consequence of the financial predicament in which the company found itself, the legacy of the Andrew “Piggy” Austin era. 

Igas – more details on proposed refinancing, but has the company got enough bondholder support?

Published 320 days ago

Having (quite correctly) been an out-and-out bear of AIM-listed and overindebted Igas Energy (IGAS) ever since we exposed the dealings of former trougher-in-chief Andrew “Piggy” Austin (before he was shown to the edge of the plank) the potential demise of the company has been on the radar. Here are ShareProphets we have flagged up the eventual destination of massive dilution for shareholders or just a round of toast and the company duly served up proposals for a refinancing at 4.5p. I’m still not completely convinced the board will pull off this deal but despite the dilution the terms proposed look to be a remarkable achievement by the new board – IF it can get it over the line.

Switch Your Focus from Tiddlers to Leviathens - But Not Any Old Leviathan

Published 326 days ago

Hello Share Swappers. We are now living in even scarier times than usual in Shareland. What with Brexit, Big Donald, a possible new cold war, inflation and growing world debt. We are also being frightened witless by the continuing shocking revelations by Uncle Tom and his top team of investigators. If I were running a shaky company, especially one on AIM, I would not be sleeping - ever.

China Debt Timebomb or Red Herring, the Monkey explains

Published 328 days ago

I reckon China is a debt time-bomb waiting to go off and burst the bubble. Andrew Monk of VSA Resources is a China bull but he addresses this issue in a fascinating note emailed to his clients this morning. Over to the Monkey...

Hayward Tyler – further extension of debt repayment, what of funds recently raised?

Published 329 days ago

My previous update on engineering group Hayward Tyler (HAYT) noted “repayment of £2.4 million of short term banking facilities, currently extended to 28 February”. The following updates with the shares currently further below 40p on the back of an “Update on banking support” announcement...

Starcom looks no closer to actually making a profit

Published 331 days ago

Starcom Systems (STAR) has just released a trading update which shows that progress is still slower than expected in terms of growth and actually making the company profitable.

Hayward Tyler – second half weighting, though not ‘as expected’…

Published 338 days ago

An update from engineering group Hayward Tyler (HAYT) commences that, “as expected”, there is proving to be a second half weighting “with aggregate order intake of £24.3 million secured in the four months to 31 January 2017… and a significant increase in the order book to £52.2 million”. Sounds promising… but what? “The board now anticipates reporting lower revenue for the financial year ending 31 March 2017”?!?...

OneView Group – following December bailout loan… another bailout loan!

Published 343 days ago

Having in December announced “an additional loan facility of $1 million on similar terms to that of the existing $3m facility, which is fully drawn… to cover short term working capital needs around the company's new business contracts”, OneView Group (ONEV) has now announced an additional $300,000 loan “to cover short term working capital needs”. Hmmm…

Rurelec – good news sees shares leap as Board cheats the Grim Reaper again

Published 347 days ago

Shares in AIM-listed Rurelec (RUR) sprang into life late yesterday after the company released news of a three-way deal which looks to have relieved at least some of the balance sheet pressure the company has been under of late. It is not out of the woods by any means, but shareholders have had two positive RNSs which suggest that all may not be lost.

Igas – the dog that didn’t bark (yet). Something for the weekend, sir?

Published 349 days ago



And so yesterday shares in AIM-listed and overindebted Igas Energy (IGAS) fell off a cliff, dropping 20% with no news released by the company. Normally one would have expected a statement, but thus far all we’ve had from Igas Towers is silence.

St Ives – last month a “materially below” profit warning, now a contract non-renewal

Published 349 days ago

Writing on St Ives (SIV) last month, I concluded that I was far from as confident as the company and retained the scepticism which has served well from 125p. Now, a 12 noon “Statement re contract” announcement sees the shares further lower…

Igas – shares in freefall: statement required, still a sell

Published 350 days ago

Shares in over-indebted AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) have not been strong of late but this morning they are down by 13% to just 8.7p (last seen) on no news. The silence from the company is deafening, especially as it faces having to redeem some of its bonds after a FY16 underspend on its conventional assets as well as having to deal with a bit of an issue with its net leverage covenants. Then there is an interest payment due on its secured bonds which the company has already indicated will cause a liquidity covenant problem. A statement is needed.

Eagle Eye Solutions – having questioned whether it was cash crunch ahoy... “Extension of credit facility”

Published 352 days ago

While an update last week from digital promotions technology company, Eagle Eye Solutions (EYE) claimed “confidence in the group's prospects”I questioned whether it was cash crunch ahoy. There is now an “Extension of credit facility” announcement...

Market gives a muted response to Premier Oil refinancing deal

Published 354 days ago

The market doesn’t like uncertainty, and that is why Premier Oil (PMO) has been continuing to under-perform in comparison to some of its peers in the oil and gas producing sector in terms of the share price.

St Ives – following April last year’s, another “materially below” expectations profit warning…

Published 370 days ago

Shares in marketing services group St Ives (SIV) are currently circa 37% lower, at around 80p, on the back of a “Trading Statement” announcement. Profit warning ahoy then!…

Kenmare – disingenuous trading update

Published 373 days ago

Dual-listed in Ireland and on the LSE Kenmare Resources (KMR) has released what reads like a very positive trading update. Two questions spring to mind here: is it generating cash, and what about the debt position? But the company seems to have chosen to ignore completely its refinancing last year in reporting its finances.

Premier Oil looks to offer more risk than reward at the current share price

Published 377 days ago

Like many producers, Premier Oil (PMO) has been struggling with debt since the oil price crashed a few years back. Some have managed to refinance the debt on their balance sheets, but for Premier the process has been dragging on for far longer than many expected and hasn’t exactly helped sentiment surrounding the company. Following today’s update though it looks as though that is finally about to be resolved.

Financial results of many oil producers will disappoint in 2017

Published 387 days ago

Looking at the performance of many oil producers over the past few months you could easily be forgiven for thinking that their problems are over and all is rosy within the sector once more.

ShareProphets share tips of the year Number 16: Sell IGAS says Nigel Somerville

Published 391 days ago

A year ago I made AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) my one suggestion – as a sell - as part of the ShareProphets tipfest for 2016. Without wishing to sound like a broken record, it is still a sell – and the clock is really ticking now especially in the light of this morning’s RNS.

Your Shares Booming At Last? - Here's Why.

Published 397 days ago

Hello Share Squirters. The Footsie keeps on rising. Allowing for the usual Santa Rally, one wonders why? After all, as Uncle Tom keeps saying, the world is overloaded with debt and many big countries, like Italy, France and Spain, have shaky economies. There seems no obvious reason for shares to bloom.

Petropavlovsk - very good news on debt: buy

Published 418 days ago

An easing of debt risk for Petropavlovsk (POG) has moved a significant step closer – with it announced that the company has received approvals for the refinancing of its entire bank debt of $529.8 million from its lending banks, Sberbank and VTB.

Igas Corporate Update: ShareProphets RNS Translation Service

Published 420 days ago

AIM-listed and over-indebted Igas Energy (IGAS) released a “Corporate Update” RNS this morning. It seems to say nothing we don’t already know but the ShareProphets RNS Translation Service has a few observations (original in bold).

Ooooh Er MRS....the AIM trainwreck from Down Under gets worse and worse

Published 420 days ago

As a mega bear of Management Resource Solutions (MRS) from almost the moment this crock of Turkish floated on the AIM casino, its ever worsening problems make me think that at 2.23 AM at Athens airport it is almost ouzo o'clock. The latest update is just so grim.

Brammer – following trading & financial woe, a recommended offer…

Published 427 days ago

Private equity firm Advent International and distributor of industrial maintenance, repair and overhaul products and services, Brammer (BRAM) “are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended all cash offer… for each Brammer share held 165 pence”

Black Friday? Is that an Invitation to Reconsider Ebony Nectar Producer, Premier Oil?

Published 428 days ago

Hello Share Shufflers. Though I hold quite a few mid-size oil companies, I do not have a stake in Premier Oil (PMO). Perhaps I should, though. The company has been in final stages of financing with banks and bond holders. That signals that the big lenders have faith in the company.

Igas – bond market signals another warning to equity holders as unsecured debt plunges

Published 438 days ago

That AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) is in trouble is in little doubt as the company battles with the over-indebtedness legacy of the Andrew “piggy” Austin days. KKR-backed Trans European Oil & Gas is in possession of a blocking holding of the secured bonds and the cash is draining away. But the latest warning sign comes not via the secured bonds, but via the unsecured bonds. The price has crashed from around 54c in the $ to just 28.6c in the $. The implication for the equity is clear.

Igas kicks the can, but not very far

Published 446 days ago

Yesterday afternoon AIM-listed and over indebted Igas Energy (IGAS) announced that it had sold some of the secured bonds hitherto held in treasury and that this has now shored up its finances such that it now no longer expects a breach of its daily liquidity covenant in 2016. Good news? Er, no – this simply kicks the can down the road (and not very far at that).

CAP-XX – tax rebate received… but needed to repay line of credit facility...

Published 450 days ago

“Further to the company's announcement of 4 October 2016, the board of CAP-XX (CPX) is pleased to announce that it has received an Australian Government R&D tax rebate of A$1.537m”. The following updates with me having previously commented here on the company looking to need to focus on ensuring it has a sustainable financial basis

Global Debt Grows and Central Banks Are Buyers: funny money end game is in sight!

Published 462 days ago

The latest missive from Sprott, the world's best known investor in precious metals, covers one of my core themes of 2016 - the fact that the world is drowning in debt. So who owns the debt and is it sustainable? Over to the experts... 

Avanti deals with drowning in debt by taking on more debt - share price death still almost certain

Published 464 days ago

There is a philosophical game called the fishing village. And today we saw this played out in reality by Avanti Communications (AVN) as it struggles to avoid insolvency.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Governments, PLCs and individuals are now drowning in debt - this has to end in disaster

Published 465 days ago

Firstly I want you all to go at least £10 more into debt or I am going on strike - see HERE. Secondly I give data on Government, Corporate and individual debt. This should be the stuff of nightmares and must end in disaster. And I do mean disaster.

Keep on Falling Pound and Make UK Shareholders Happy

Published 466 days ago

Hello Share Scrapers. The Dow continues to fall. The days when it topped 18500 seem long gone. Happily, the progress of America’s big indicator no longer seems to influence British shares very much. Perhaps it’s because the Brexit vote has given us more of an independent status in the eyes of big investors.

Enquest looks cheap compared to its peers

Published 470 days ago

Oil has been enjoying a good run over the past couple of months and many producers have seen that rise reflected in the share price of those companies.

The Misys IPO, it is one to dodge and it shows we bears are right

Published 472 days ago

Until it was taken private back in 2012 Misys was one of those stocks you did not need to own. Its track record was okay but not brilliant. It had a habit of letting investors down now and again. Its departure was not greeted with wailing and the gnashing of teeth. But now it is planning a comeback in what is flagged up as being one of the largest IPOs for many a year. Caveat emptor.

Time to sell Glencore (and other big miners) before the markets take a tumble

Published 476 days ago

I have been very pleased with the way that Glencore (GLEN) has performed since I covered it here a few months back, but I now feel that it is time to cash in, at least for the time being.

Igas – dire interims, bondholders take box seat as covenant breach looms

Published 481 days ago

Rarely does one find good news in results which are released at the last minute, and in the case of Igas the recent record of fairly prompt reporting suggested that leaving the interims to deadline day would be a bad omen. This morning’s numbers and, more to the point, update on the bond situation reads badly – for all the positive spin applied. The numbers aren’t good, a bond covenant breach is expected in the second half of next month and then there is the question of how long it may be before the cash simply runs out.

Zoopla - Share sales point to likely overvaluation

Published 485 days ago

Zoopla (ZPLA) shares have performed brilliantly over the past few months, rising from a low around 230p to the current 320p, for a mighty market cap of £1.37 billion. As some highly knowledgeable shareholders lighten their holdings, it might be worth others considering whether such a market cap is truly justified.

Sirius Minerals will offer cheaper buying opportunities

Published 492 days ago

Sirius Minerals (SXX) has made good progress with its polyhalite fertiliser project so far and ultimately it will also be of benefit to the UK economy, but I struggle to see the share price going much higher in the shorter term.

Fairpoint down again, but still worth considering or should I be sacked?

Published 496 days ago

Having last covered professional services group Fairpoint (FRP) in May, I gave the company a “tentative BUY” rating at 128p. With the shares now sitting at 96p after today’s interim results, investors are clearly unimpressed so far. Should I be sacked?

InterQuest & Avesco – share tip of the year updates

Published 498 days ago

Since previously updating on my share tips of the year last month – see HERE, both have had significant news…

Victoria - The Never Ending Success Story

Published 502 days ago

Excuse the title, but it seems to represent the state of play at Victoria plc (VCP). The company held its AGM this morning and accompanied it with a statement to shareholders to the effect that everything is fine. Not bad for a stock which has been an 8-bagger in just two years!

Metals Exploration – A golden dawn really due to break

Published 502 days ago

An aborted attempt to take the company private, typhoons, a nightmare fear of political intervention and nervous creditors threatening to pull the plug, there has been little left to the imagination for shareholders, or what’s left of them, to endure at Metals Exploration (MTL).

Earnings Preview: Buy Ashmore to take part in the EM recovery

Published 508 days ago

One of the dirty little secrets in the investment world is that fund management companies – and the very occasional spread betting company – can turn out to be fabulous investments. Investors can often do a lot better by buying shares in these companies than by using their products. In that spirit, let’s have a brief look at Ashmore (ASHM), which is set to release full-year earnings on Tuesday.

Premier Oil – Covenants deferred again as it walks the financial tightrope

Published 510 days ago

This morning brought news that the covenant test for Premier Oil (PMO) has been delayed for the third time. While the support from the lending group is to be welcomed, the continuing need for deferral proves that the company's equity holders remain on a financial tightrope.

Earnings Preview: Is HSS Hire Living on the Edge?

Published 514 days ago

HSS Hire (HSS) is scheduled to release interim results on Wednesday. This bear target of our colleague Lucian Miers has had a solid share price performance so far this year, but can it last?

Why Stocks are Overvalued but we have to Keep Buying Them

Published 522 days ago

I note with interest the today’s macro-outlook comments by Malcolm and Tom, each taking different sides of the debate. While I agree with Tom’s analysis, I reckon that Malcolm’s conclusions might turn out be right!

Thanks to Greed, Our Shares Should Continue to Blossom.

Published 522 days ago

Hello Share Masters. There is so much gloomy comment among the City ‘experts’ these days that I really think it’s reasonable to again put the other side. The Footsie continues to push towards all time highs, so it’s all too obvious that the market is not in step with the pundits. 

Premier Oil looks shaky going forwards

Published 523 days ago

Premier Oil (PMO) has just released its interim results, but I’m not convinced they are quite as rosy as they might initially appear at first glance.

BHP Billiton: make billions in losses… and the shares correctly go up

Published 526 days ago

You cannot complain when one of your tips of the year has put on over 35% in the last eight-and-a-bit months, but it would be fair to say a month or two into the year even I wondered what I had let myself in for with BHP Billiton (BLT).

William Hill – Fundamental disagreement over revised offer, but good signs that shares are underpriced

Published 527 days ago

This morning brings separate announcements from 888 (888) and Rank Group (RNK) on the one hand, and their desired target William Hill (WMH) on the other. The two sides continue to be poles apart when it comes to the mooted merger of the three entities. Despite the rationale put forward by the suitors, I reckon the board of William Hill are right to ignore the offer for now.

XCite Energy: How the Debt Monster Ate Their Company

Published 529 days ago

Or should I say, might eat their company. To say that the company has been eaten would involve making a prediction about the future and I steadfastly refuse to make predictions about what another company might do and what might happen to their share price. So this is all just analysis of what has already happened and what has already happened is that the debt monster has nearly eaten Xcite, or more precisely, Xcite's shareholders.

Stock Spirits profitability revs higher - potential recovery play

Published 532 days ago

Heading back into the drinks business, this morning saw interim results from Central and Eastern European spirits producer Stock Spirits (STCK). This can be interpreted as another recent “busted IPO”, with the share price halving since its 2013 flotation.

Johnston Press – Net Debt decreases only if you assume the bonds are worth less than face value

Published 538 days ago

Following on from my recent coverage of Trinity Mirror (TNI), today brings interim results from another large player in the so-called “deadtree press”, namely Johnston Press (JPR).

Trinity Mirror - Gargantuan pension fund creates a puzzle for investors

Published 541 days ago

There is a saying that some stocks are little more than pension funds with small businesses attached to them. This unfortunately looks to be the case with Trinity Mirror (TNI), whose market cap does not come close to matching the size of its actuarial pension deficit.

Frontera Resources – Red Flags for breakfast, anyone? SELL!

Published 546 days ago

DIRECTOR PURCHASES SHARES screams the headline – in capitals - of an RNS from AIM-listed Frontera Resources (FRR) - not to be confused with Frontier Resources - this morning. Ooooh quick, let’s all pile in – follow the money, as they say, because the insiders know what’s really going on. Er, hang on a moment….

Kenmare – rescue refinancing sees just 7.45% support of Open Offer

Published 549 days ago

Ireland- and London-listed Kenmare Resources (KMR) announced (after-hours, natch) on Friday that the open Offer element of its rescue refinancing package had met with just 7.45% support: hardly a ringing endorsement. Of course, since the Open Offer cash was headed straight into the hands of creditors rather than providing the business with much-needed working capital it was hardly an attractive proposition, not to mention the abject record of the board.

An unfortunate hiccup at Metals Exploration

Published 557 days ago

You can never discount the possibility of a slip twixt cup and lip when dealing with bankers, particularly in these troubled times. Hence the extraordinary announcement from Metals Exploration (MTL) about an emergency requirement for cash just 48 hours after reporting progress at the mine head in bringing gold on stream.

Frontera Resources shareholders will be diluted into oblivion!

Published 561 days ago

In a market filled with companies that have wasted a small fortune and haven’t got a lot to show for it, Frontera Resources still manages to stand out from the rest as having taken both to a new level!

Igas – Sunday press PR puffery tells you all you need to know: sell

Published 562 days ago

Tom Winnifrith has already quite correctly berated the Sunday Telegraph for its piece yesterday on the ongoing travails of AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) and its little debt problem. The sense of desperation which saw this piece of abject puffery in a national newspaper is apparent to anyone who looks at the balance sheet, or read the comments from the company about its expected bond covenant default in the second half of this year (ie any time now). But the article reads like a dodgy RNS aimed at getting the bulletin board morons to pile in while the crony capitalists get out.

H&T Pawnbrokers – A better way to express your love for yellow metal

Published 564 days ago

Full disclosure: I am a gold-bug. I love gold. And I think the economic doom-mongers like Peter Schiff make fantastic arguments for a radically higher gold price. We are in uncharted monetary territory which threatens the fundamental integrity of our paper currencies. But I also know that investing on the basis of an impending apocalypse means betting on something that has never happened before. History tells us that stock markets and most of their constituents tend to survive wars, disasters, economic collapse, etc.

Igas - shares sliding, is the penny starting to drop?

Published 566 days ago

Shares in AIM-listed and debt-ridden Igas Energy (IGAS) hit a new low point today of just 11.5p per share. They have since recovered to 12.25p (last seen) which is still below anything registered during the slide from the heady days when previous head honcho Andrew "piggy" Austin did his sale-and-repurchase deal with Equities First Holdings LLC. Is the penny starting to drop about how big the debt problems are?

Gulf Keystone – Leaked Two-Phase Restructuring with Investor Wipe-out

Published 570 days ago

Concrete details of the restructuring at Gulf Keystone (GKP) have apparently been leaked to the Times this weekend, confirming that the end is nigh for this once-loved and highly-debated stock.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum - Living On Borrowed Time

Published 571 days ago

June was a quiet month for Gulf Keystone (GKP), at least in terms of news for observers. Internally, there are doubtless all manner of interesting conversations taking place. We were given a twin helping of clues on Friday as to the content and direction of these discussions. Unfortunately, there is still no reason to believe that the shares have any value. But maybe the end is nigh.

Premier Oil – Lenders give more time, situation remains grave - SELL

Published 572 days ago

I previously noted the importance of a successful conclusion to Premier Oil’s (PMO) bank lender discussions, and made the case that a very large equity raise was probably needed to put the company back on a sound footing. This morning finally sees some news on those lender discussions, made necessary by Premier’s inability to satisfy its covenants.

Ukrproduct - Loan extension but equity value still looks like zero

Published 573 days ago

Investing in foreign stocks usually brings with it a greater exposure to risk. That risk can come in a variety of forms: fraud, legal and political problems, and even war. But I would wager that few investors in Ukrproduct (UKR), the Ukrainian dairy producer, ever thought it was possible that a war would light up on their doorstep and damage the prospects of their harmless butter and cheese manufacturer.

Tesco – Simplifying its way to success

Published 578 days ago

In all the excitement over the European referendum, Tesco has continued to plug away on the recovery track and has possibly been overlooked. News flow has been steady and has positive.

Igas – bondholder Dutch Auction lights up neon warning signs for equity holders

Published 580 days ago

I’ve been a bear of Igas Energy (IGAS) ever since previous CEO Andrew “piggy” Austin’s shady dealings with Equities First Holdings LLC (EFH) when he walked away with millions in cash whilst still being able to claim that his interests in the shares were unchanged by the transaction. It ran rings around the disclosure rules. Ever since he walked (or, more likely, was pushed) it has been clear that he left the company drowning in debt and sitting on a ticking time-bomb. Yesterday came a surprise move, but one which could, perhaps, spell the end of the road for equity holders. Quite why the shares spiked (albeit temporarily) on the news is a mystery.

WANdisco – CFO departure time confirmed, as my discounted confetti ahoy call has also been…

Published 582 days ago

It has been announced that CFO of unique cash-burning machine (sorry, “unique… provider of enterprise-ready, non-stop software solutions that enable globally distributed organizations to meet today's data challenges of secure storage, scalability and continuous availability”) WANdisco plc (WAND), Paul Harrison, is to join JUST EAT plc with effect from 26th September. He is stated to be “looking forward to joining”. I bet…

Premier Oil - Holed Below the Waterline? (Part 2)

Published 584 days ago

Yesterday in Part 1, I outlined the gravity of the situation facing Premier Oil’s (PMO) equity investors. In that piece, I presented my view that the purchase of E.ON’s North Sea assets was an attempt to temporarily fix a covenant breach situation, but that any profits it generates are unlikely to be material against Premier’s debt pile.

Premier Oil - Holed Below the Waterline? (Part 1)

Published 585 days ago

Anyone lucky enough to buy independent exploration and production company Premier Oil (PMO) around the January lows achieved a two-bagger in quick time as the shares rallied rapidly from around 20p to achieve a high of 75p last month. It is currently capitalised at £360 million ($500 million) and is a favourite on the bulletin boards. Sadly, it’s not yet clear that Premier has its house in order. There could be some serious pain yet to come.

Lansdowne Oil and Gas – results, bailout package (kicking the can)

Published 586 days ago

Dublin-headquartered and AIM-listed Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP) has seen its shares suspended since it announced an adverse ruling in the Court of Appeal on 13 April which left the company in need of, ahem, clarifying its financial position. This morning we had FY15 numbers which suggest that this was not the only problem, but the good news is that it is not going bust just yet: a bailout package has been put together. 

FRAUD EXPOSE: MoneySwap and PCG Entertainment – a look back in history at the former chairman and his brother. All to play for as the second half really gets going….

Published 593 days ago

Mr Kung Min Lin served as Chairman of Filthy 40 MoneySwap (SWAP) and PCG Entertainment (PCGE). But before that he served as Exec Director of AIM investing company Sportswinbet (SWB) from the 2005 IPO, which went on to become Power Capital Global (PCGB) with Mr Lin as Chairman. You can follow the progress of the first incarnation HERE. But we’re back from the break and with what's left of the £3 million raised in 2005 it’s now time for the second half: Mr Kung Min Lin’s brother comes to the fore.

Goals Soccer Centres – placing & strategic review conclusions, can it drive future growth though?

Published 600 days ago

Having recently noted boardroom change aplenty but questioned trading change at Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL), the company has now announced completion of a strategic review, resulting in that “four strategic priorities have now been set”, and a 100p per share, £16.75 million (gross) placing. These are targeted to “help strengthen the group's market leading position, improve ROCE and increase value for shareholders over the longer term”. Hmmm...

Gulf Keystone Petroleum - Revelations: The Final Judgement

Published 604 days ago

And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away.

It is with no small sense of humility that I disclose a token short position in Gulf Keystone Petroleum.

The Great Fall of China

Published 611 days ago

There is a growing fear in financial and monetary circles that there is something deeply wrong with the global economy. Publicly, officials and professional investors alike have become confused by policy failures, and privately, occasionally even downright pessimistic, at a loss to see an easy solution.It is hardly exaggerating to say there is a growing feeling of impending doom. The reason this has happened is due to today’s Central Bankers and their very failure on the one subject about which they profess to be experts: economics.

Scary Chart Time: China and what might happen or might not

Published 624 days ago

Now there are some definite bearish thoughts and views running around at the moment so I feel this morning we should explore a little bit. The first big worry is Chinese debt – has it got out of control or can the Party control it ?There is an article in the Economist last week discussing this which gives a very good summary and you should all read it,

Kenmare – FY15 Annual Report, refinancing, boardroom troughing

Published 631 days ago

Ireland and London listed Kenmare (KMR) finally got around to releasing its 2015 annual report last week, in the wake of (yet another) proposed rescue refinancing. It strikes me that the company has been something of a disaster machine ever since it got its Moma titanium operation up and running in Mozambique.

Gulf Keystone tells its shareholders it is screwed - don't these poltroons remember Afren?

Published 635 days ago

Without explicitly using the words "we are 100% fucked and shareholders face either total or near wipeout" drowning in debt Gulf Keystone (GKP) has today pretty much fessed up to what a mess it is in. Not for the first time, the company is telling shareholders that the game is up. Natch they think they know better. They obviously don't remember the last days of Afren.

WANdisco – indebted cash-burning machine announces purportedly “significant milestone” news. How long till discounted confetti ahoy?

Published 636 days ago

Shares in unique cash-burning machine (sorry, “unique… provider of enterprise-ready, non-stop software solutions that enable globally distributed organizations to meet today's data challenges of secure storage, scalability and continuous availability”), WANdisco plc (WAND) currently trade 25% higher today, at 225p, on the back of an announcement that it “has entered into a non-exclusive OEM sales agreement with IBM under which IBM intends to sell WANdisco's Fusion data replication product”. Hmmm…

This Share Shouldn't Fall by the Roadside, But There May Be Better Punts.

Published 656 days ago

Hello Share Togglers. I don’t own shares in AA, and I’m not planning to buy any. They have the best known brand in the car recovery business. But there is a lot of competition out there.

Gulf Keystone Full Year Numbers - What you smell is Toast, 1p best case target

Published 678 days ago

As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?

IGAS – results to Dec 2015: company foresees non-compliance with bond covenants. Sell.

Published 679 days ago

AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) is my share tip of the year – as a sell. This morning saw its results for the 9-month period to Dec 2015 which did nothing to make me change my stance. Indeed there was a clear warning that the company is on course to breach its bond covenants during H2. The shares remain a stonking sell.

Red Flags at Night – Goldenport Holdings sets sail into the sunset: SELL!!

Published 683 days ago

Talk about burying bad news. Quite apart from now scoring a hat-trick of appearances in the Red Flags at Night column (see its previous gracings of this fine website HERE), fully-listed Goldenport Holdings (GPRT) didn’t even bother to include the bad news in last night’s no-one-is-watching o’clock RNS, released at 5.20pm when everyone had gone home for the weekend. It did say there is a Notice of EGM but you then have to find it on the Company’s website. And even that does not spell out the true horror. If the shares are still trading on Monday, it should be treated as a last chance to get out with one of Tom Winnifrith’s bags of crisps.

It’s not hard to make money in a roaring bull market, but when the bear comes prowling - keeping them is the hard part.

Published 702 days ago

Bubbles arise when asset prices inflate above what underlying incomes can sustain. Centuries ago, the Dutch woke up one morning and discovered that tulips were simply just flowers after all. But today, the world has yet to wake up to the mathematical reality that over $200 trillion in global debt and perhaps another $500 trillion of un(der)funded liabilities really cannot ever be paid back under current terms.

This next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before.

Published 709 days ago

Back in the 1970’s as recession gripped the world for a decade, stocks stagnated and commodities crashed, investor Jim Rogers made a fortune and his understanding of markets, capital flows and timing is legendary. As crisis struck in late 2008, he did it again, often recommending gold and silver to those looking for wealth preservation strategies and warned that the crash would lead to massive job losses, dependence on government bailouts, and unprecedented central bank printing on a global scale. Now, Rogers says that investors around the world are realizing that the party is over and Stocks are over bloated and central banks will have little choice but to take action again. 

Tom Winnifrith St Valentine Bearcast - debt is toxic & braced for a day with public sector shirkers (my family)

Published 710 days ago

All my family bar step sister Flea work in the public sector and so today at a great family gathering I shall have to listen to folks on 38 hour weeks earning silly salaries bleat on about how stressed they all are and about the wicked Tories. Saints preserve me, it will be grim. Away from discussing the horror that awaits me I look at the toxic nature of debt, market crashes and investor denial.

Video: Tom Winnifrith Presentation - the great stockmarket and real economy unwind is only starting

Published 728 days ago

I gave this presentation in Clerkenwell last night. I am not predicting a crash but I am suggesting that the debt and QE bubble is only starting to unwind and will go much further

Red Flags at Night: Goldenport Holdings Inc suspends debt service payments

Published 732 days ago

Main market listed shipping company Goldenport Holdings (GPRT) has featured before in the Red Flags at Night column (see HERE) for slipping out bad news at no-one-is-watching o’clock, but yesterday’s offering, at 5pm on a Friday, looks grim. We have a trading update and the announcement that it can’t service its debts. Uh-oh.

The free ride is over - bad news now really is bad news

Published 737 days ago

The end of the Fed’s free ride is that it transported us back out of Wonderland where bad news was good news, which has lasted nearly seven years. For years we’ve seen the market go up when economic news was bad. That Mad-Hatter reaction happened because bad economic news meant the Fed would prolong its stimulus, and stimulus was, by far, the biggest game in town. That dynamic ended on December 16. Now we’re back in economic reality where bad news is simply bad news.

Video: Debt is toxic - Gold & Bears main stage speaker Mark Littlewood of the IEA explains the mess we are in

Published 760 days ago

Libertarian Mark Littlewood of the IEA is a Question Time Regular and came along to Gold & Bears to give a compelling presentation on the mess we are all in. Debt is toxic and the answer is not more tax but less.

Time to build a position in Tullow Oil

Published 767 days ago

The oil price is on its knees, but I think we’re very close to being at a stage where its time to start buying oil producers for the longer term. The trick is going to be picking those that are strong enough to survive in the current climate, and avoiding those that could get into serious trouble with their debt.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 8 December - InternetQ, battle underway, LGO a RNS that says desperate

Published 778 days ago

In today's podcast I update you all on the olive harvest - I managed four hours in the fields today despite still being in real pain. But not as much as LGO Energy (LGO) - its RNS today smells of desperation. For strategic review read "the game is up" and that also applies to Kolar Gold (KGLD). I comment on Avanti Communications (AVN) where the share price crumble is accelerating - remember debt is crack cocaine for management but for shareholders it is bad for your wealth. I comment on Silver Falcon (SILF) and tick off the grossly irresponsible, Justin the Clown of ADVFN and also on Defenx (DFX), rapidly becoming an IPO omnishambles. Then onto InternetQ (INTQ) where it is now "game on" but I end with Antrim Energy (AEY) where a concert party of Brokerman Dan, market abuser Chris OIl and ADVFN (AFN) head honcho Clem Chambers have just taken a 3% stake.

SeaEnergy: unexplained 36% rise - statement needed

Published 785 days ago

This morning cash-strapped AIM-listed SeaEnergy (SEA) shares have spiked 36%. There is no news and a statement is needed urgently.

Gulf Keystone – Ben Turney needs to be locked away for his insanity – the shares are a sell

Published 799 days ago

Ben has produced yet another truly awful piece on Gulf Keystone GKP) today, Flip Flop is a stale long and wrong bull, I have called it spot on as a sell from 180p down to today’s 25.75p. But his offering today “facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt” is not based on fact and makes assertions that are ludicrous.

Some facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt

Published 799 days ago

After my Gulf Keystone (GKP) piece last week (HERE) drew the predictable furious response from Winnifrith (HERE), I’ve been looking into the company’s numbers in a bit more detail. There’s no denying that Gulf is teetering on the edge. However, it is not dead yet. Although it has little to no room for error, so long as the Kurds keep up their regular payments, it is possible that Gulf will be able to pay down its debt and refinance its balance sheet by April 2017. A broker note found its way into my inbox today, broadly supporting this view. It contained some interesting observations on Gulf’s debt position worth sharing.

Avanti Communications Q1 Trading Statement – Complete and utter turd polishing nonsense

Published 804 days ago

King of the AIM bombasts the uber Welsh David Williams of drowning in debt Avanti Communications (AVN) has polished up another turd, that is to say his Q1 trading statement. Naturally Taffy Williams is delighted with all the progress being made. He always is as target after target is missed.

International Mining & Infrastructure – New Bonds so what? AIM Delisting Wednesday, ISDX lobster pot beckons (at best)

Published 807 days ago

Disgraced International Mining & Infrastructure (IMIC) has today announced that it has managed to raise more cash ($22 million) by issuing yet more bonds. The answer to debt is not more debt, especially when you are not generating any cash. But when in a hole…just dig deeper.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 8th November - debt is crack cocaine and the poison is everywhere

Published 808 days ago

As you can tell from the start of this podcast I am a tad pissed off with life. Anyhow I then move onto debt. State debt, corporate debt and personal debt. It is like crack cocaine. It is addictive and in the end it is lethal. I warn you what to look for in stocks to avoid this poison. I refer to Mark Littlewood's headline talk on this matter at Gold & Bears in three weeks time.

Rurelec – short term loan confirmed as the company mortgages itself to the hilt

Published 808 days ago

Crisis ridden AIM-listed Rurelec confirmed on Friday that it had closed the short-term loan facility announced on 30 October, and that it had already drawn down the full amount of £600,000. The statement released says that the directors are pleased to announce this news. For “pleased” read “relieved”. But at what price?

Kenmare – Q3 Trading Update gives no cause for optimism

Published 819 days ago

Yesterday saw ISX and LSE listed Kenmare Resources (KMR) issue a trading update for Q3. Plenty of numbers, detail on improved production and shipped tonnage. But the elephant in the room is, as it always is with Kenmare, the state of its finances and that we got absolutely nothing at all. In other words the update was about as much use at the FCA is at preventing fraud on the London Markets.

Tribal Group – following previous updates, it’s quelle surprise… the news is dire!

Published 828 days ago

Having announced in May that “Keith Evans has informed the board of his intention to retire and step down from his role as Chief Executive” and that “our profits in 2015 are expected to be strongly weighted towards the second half of the year” and updated in August that this was partially the result of “changing software customer buying cycles and software implementation programme profiles, which we believe are likely to become a long-term feature in our markets”, it was guessable somewhat what a “trading statement” today from Tribal Group (TRB) has delivered…

Anglo Asian poised for profits return

Published 851 days ago

After cutting interim losses 30% to $4.1 million (£2.7 million), AIM dog Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) expects to return to profits thanks to a new $4.5 million flotation plant now being commissioned to hoist recoveries and copper output from the company’s flagship open-pit Gedabek gold and copper mine in the Caucasian republic of Azerbaijan. At 6.13p, shares in the company, which increased gold production from Gedabek 33% to 35,938 oz. in the six months to June with copper concentrate production 6% ahead to 689 dry metric tonnes, have fallen 92% since its 77p AIM float 10 years ago, but directors now insist Anglo Asian has begun a new chapter.

LGO Energy: Gary Newman vindicated, this one is in trouble

Published 859 days ago

A month ago, Gary Newman wrote that LGO Energy (LGO) “looks overvalued and in trouble”. His analysis drew quite a lot of criticism, but this morning it looks like his view has been vindicated, as the company announced an unimpressive set of interim figures. For good measure, hidden away in these, is a significant downgrade of the company’s production outlook.

Chemring looks a good defensive bet

Published 859 days ago

Conflicts around the world seem to be on the increase, and if anything it looks likely that we can expect more in the coming years. This is of course bad news for most companies operating in those regions, especially some of the African and Middle Eastern ones, with the exception being those companies that are in the defense and aerospace sector. One such company that would be likely to benefit is FTSE-listed Chemring Group (CHG), which released a fairly bullish trading update earlier this week.

Mama Mia, Those Zippy Italians Can Show Other Struggling Euro Countries a Thing or Two.

Published 861 days ago

Buon Giorno Share People. I spent last week testing the Italian power of recovery to revitalise the Eurozone and so invigorate the UK economy, particularly, as always, the value of our shares.

AIM-China Filthy40 member Aquatic Foods Interims fail to reassure

Published 867 days ago

One of the problems that AIM-listed China stocks have at the moment is that nobody believes them. Nobody believes the claimed cash-piles or profits. This is amply demonstrated by the stock-market histoire of Aquatic Foods (AFG), a member of the ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty. To remind you, it listed in just February of this year at 70p per share, to give it a market capitalisation of £79.3 million. Yet the shares fell steadily to the current 29p. Today saw Interims to the end of June 2015. Scratch the surface, and the Red Flags are all too apparent.

Goals Soccer Centres – 2015 interim results statement off target

Published 867 days ago

Operator currently of 46 5-a-side soccer centres in the UK and one in Los Angeles, Goals Soccer Centres plc (GOAL) has announced results for a “challenging” first half of 2015, though things have since got worse…

Red Flags at Night: Goldenport Holdings Inc Interims and offer talks terminated

Published 879 days ago

A bank holiday weekend: what better time is there than 6.29pm on Friday night to slip out bad news?! And so we come to fully listed Goldenport Holdings Inc (GPRT) which did exactly that, in the form of its interims. But it was not just that this came at no-one-is-watching o’clock, there were a few other matters which anyone holding this stock might want to pay attention to – if they are not blinded by subterfuge.

The Torah also tells you that a stockmarket crash is on the way

Published 885 days ago

I am of the view that the market correction will continue and that a key reason is debt. This will also be good for gold. Logic and reason is on my side but so too, apparently is the Torah. My colleagues at Palisade Capital this week interviewed Jeb Handwerger who is a scholar of the Torah and a student of Yeshiva. Is there really a connection between the biblical prophecy of the Shemitah as we near the end of a potentially ominous seven year cycle?

Glencore – an update from the large cap mining sector coalface

Published 889 days ago

For the mining sector the last couple of years have been almost a perfect storm with its biggest customer China having a growth slowdown and strength in the US dollar further crimping demand.  Throw in too the lagged impact of new mines commissioned in more bullish times coming on stream the supply/demand balance has been dire.  And so shares in the sector have plunged.

Debt and Oil – A Toxic Brew for the Oil Sector

Published 891 days ago

I say that but that isn't exactly what I mean. You can happily mix debt and oil production, the cost of debt can be set off against corporation tax and as long as you don't have too much it can improve your equity returns a treat, it even makes sense to draw down debt as you develop an oilfield. When I say that debt and oil are a toxic brew what I mean is that debt doesn't mix with exploration and appraisal. It's not that they don't mix well, they shouldn't mix at all.

Is Greece Blinking - PM Alex Tsipras another name on the traitor's wall

Published 947 days ago

Once again we are told that it is 1 minute to midnight for Greece. Where have we heard that before? So who blinks? It seems to be Greek PM Alex Tsipras who is set to cave into the banksters and impose even more misery on the poor folk of Greece.

Tesco: don’t look at your holding for three years or don’t bother

Published 1008 days ago

It might be a heavy corporate earnings results day around the world but for tomorrow’s business pages the lead story is already obvious following the disclosure earlier by Tesco (TSCO) that it lost a cool £6.4 billion in the last full financial year. 

Vedanta ... in for a penny

Published 1089 days ago

Vedanta (VED), with a market cap of £1,021 million, has fallen by some 68% since its 2014 peak, to 371p. In the twelve years or so since it floated, Vedanta shares have has been as high as near 3,000p but are now right back down to below the IPO price from 2003.

Sprott gold veteran John Embry – this is the worst I’ve seen it for 40 years

Published 1110 days ago

John Embry, is the Chief Portfolio Strategist at the world’s largest resource investor Sprott. This market for gold and gold stocks is the worst he’s seen for 40 years, he noted in a recent interview. But what happened 39 years ago. The interview is a fascinating insight from a man with unmatched experience.

Avanti Communications ... questionable quality of sales

Published 1176 days ago

Avanti Communications (AVN) 2014 accounts were released yesterday and while the group's year end statement (from September 15th 2014) revealed that debt continues to pile up at an alarming rate (the debt rises), the accounts show that the quality of its revenues remains questionable as ever. 

Avanti Communications... the debt rises

Published 1189 days ago

I finally got round to reading Avanti's year end results to 30th June 2014 (released on 15th September 2014). And then I shorted some more stock. 

Beware of Dragons, Moon Monsters, Vampires and Rising Debt.

Published 1189 days ago

Hello Share Strimmers. My mother always told me ‘If you haven’t got the money, you can’t have it.’ When I was in a pre-Beatles rock ‘n’ roll group, my dad marched me back to the shop to hand back a Clavioline ( an early keyboard) which I’d bought ‘on the never.’

Avocet Mining plays a blinder

Published 1240 days ago

Loss-making, debt-ridden, with production falling and assets in areas close to the Ebola epidemic, bombed-out West Africa-focused gold play Avocet Mining (AVM) has taken an urgent step to retrieve matters, by commissioning a  $7 million (£4.25 million) carbon blinding circuit. Chief Executive Officer David Cather argues this should increase monthly gold production from the AIM-quoted company’s flagship five million-oz.-resource Inata gold mine in Burkina Faso from between 7,000 oz. and 8,000 oz. to 10,000 oz. and increase recoveries from toxic ores from 40 per cent to near 75 per cent.

Gulf Keystone – Why I do not give it the benefit of the doubt

Published 1242 days ago

Ben Turney wrote HERE that he gave Gulf Keystone (GKP) the benefit of the doubt after its analysts presentation last week. I do not.

office2office – do interims support the board’s decision to recommend takeover offer?

Published 1245 days ago

Having announced last week that it is recommending a 51p per share takeover offer, provider of business supplies and outsourced business services, office2office plc (OFF) has announced results for its half year ended 30th June 2014. Do these support the board’s decision to recommend the takeover offer?

Kenmare: The Boardroom pigs should be shot – Debt Financing Update

Published 1272 days ago

The grotesquely overpaid and underperforming  pigs (see HERE and also HERE in a piece containing explicit sado masochistic sexual imagery and also Michael Carvill) that sit on the Kenmare Resources (KMR) board managed to persuade their shareholders that it was right to reject the bid advance from Iluka. That allowed more time for boardroom troughing but boy shareholders must be regretting it as the Irish titanium miner finally fessed up to its debt pickle today. 

Anglo American at 1,583p - now on my buy list

Published 1282 days ago

When I penned my observations on Anglos American (AAL) the mining giant last week, my favourable impression of the company and its shares was partly based on the assumption that the management would be disposing of its old, inefficient and troublesome platinum mines that have hung about the company’s neck like a ton of bricks. Now we have reports that the company plans to sell off three shafts in the Rustenburg area of South Africa, further confirming my ‘good value’ estimation at the then share price of 1514p. Last seen the Anglo American share price was 1583p; up 4.5% in about a week and intimating a further challenge to recent one year share price resistance, at just above 1600p (have a look).

Avanti – The Profits warning does not stack up

Published 1284 days ago

Naturally I am delighted to see bombastic uber-Welsh Avanti Communications (AVN) boss David Williams have to eat humble pie and serve up a profits warning on Friday. But what the statement says and what it does not say is just terribly confusing. I start on June 13th when Avanti stated:

Big risks & Big Rewards in Petropavlovsk

Published 1287 days ago

If you are bullish on gold prices in the near future and like risk then Petropavlovsk (POG) is well worth a look. This is by no means a safe bet, and if you’re not prepared for the remote possibility of losing the lot then this certainly isn’t for you – but then the same can be said of many companies!

Picking Ruspetro?! Have I lost my mind?! We'll see...

Published 1316 days ago

A cursory glance at Ruspetro (RPO) would probably be enough to put off a lot of people. The share price has performed badly since the middle of 2012, and although a lot of AIM oil shares have suffered similar fates, Ruspetro has shed over 90 per cent of it value in those two years.

Avanti Quarterlies: When is the next fund raise & what is the real debt? Matt Earl kicks off

Published 1353 days ago

Bear raider Matt Earl, the “dark destroyer”, has added to his Avanti short this morning. He reckons that debt today is materially higher than that stated as at 31st March and that a rescue refinancing is “a strong possibility” this year. Earl says that “Gravity may be about to kick in.” 

Buy Thomas Cook: “Disappearing” Debt Pile

Published 1714 days ago

The problem with buying into Thomas Cook (TCG) shares in the recent past is that despite the way that the recovery on the daily chart looked extremely appealing, the £1.6 billion debt pile was significantly more than the market capitalisation of the group.

Plastics Capital - a positive future being manufactured?

Published 1745 days ago

AIM listed niche plastics products group Plastics Capital (PLA) is a company that Tom and myself have followed since the shares were at 40.5p in November 2009. Our thesis that shareholders would be rewarded as the company would be able to robustly generate cash and show its debt was manageable in the years ahead has been proven correct thus far – with the shares presently trading at 107.5p.

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