Mothercare – “refinancing, restructuring and reorganising… to ensure a sustainable future”. Is there?
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Why I think Malcolm Stacey is wrong on Bigdish & good riddance you mendacious old hag
Published 10 days ago
Hello, Share Troopers. Are we still 'Going Well with Shell, Shell, Shell?' The words of the famous Bing Crosby TV advert of the 1950s still seem pertinent here. The oil jumbo Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) & (RDSB) is my biggest holding, mainly for the high dividend. But I also have hopes for the share price, which, given the rise and rise of Brent Crude, seems too low to me...
Published 32 days ago
Hello, Share Climbers. While the old shares have been at a standstill for Easter, the oil price has continued its race upwards. At the same time, the big London protest has been focussing minds on global warming. This seems to have worked for the campaigners as there’s been a lot of debate on the media about the planet’s worsening pollution. Radio Four has been full of it and Sir David presented a frightening programme about this mega issue in one of BBC TV’s prime Easter slots. So what does all of this mean for those of us with shares in the big Footsie oilers - and the smaller black stuff producers, as well?
Published 37 days ago
Hello, Share Peckers. A company which has caused me anxiety and loss in the past seems to be on the up. And as I’m not one to hold a grudge, I won't be selling my shares any time soon. In fact, I think the future could be quite rosy from herein - which is nice because I need to claw back a setback which once nudged 80%...
Published 44 days ago
Hello, Share Pushers. I suspect not many of us will be over-keen to invest in the bigger power supply companies. The headwinds are worrying. Government caps on prices, big competition from smaller and cheaper companies, fuelled by comparison websites, and the rising oil price. And we could probably think of a few more...
Published 52 days ago
Hello, Share Cringers. Have you noticed how the price of crude oil is creeping up? In the distant past, I think I recall, it was higher than $140 a barrel. Then it dipped to around $30 in 2016 on glut fears. It managed to rally above $80 a barrel in September last year, before toppling again to around $46 - and now it’s hauled back up to $70. Recently though, the share prices of the oil giants have not improved enormously...
Published 66 days ago
Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA) has updated that “we are pleased to see continued stable production reported from the Portland Sandstone and look forward to further updates from the operator as the programme continues” (Alba: 11.765%)…
Published 67 days ago
Hello, Share Twirlers. Having just reminded myself that the p/e I have for Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA and RDSB) is a mere 11, I think it may be time to look at this giant company again. It was at least two years ago that at least one big bank was opining the B shares worth 2800p, yet, after posting much bigger profits since then, the price still languishes at around 2400p...
Published 68 days ago
Wood Group (WG.) is having a volatile day and is down over 7% as I write. The share is still however the thick end of ten percent above its low point for the year...which goes to show you the material natural level of fluctuations in the oil services space. Still, with the oil price heading north again year-to-date I would have expected more especially - as I last recounted HERE - Wood Group has plenty of self-help scope resulting from the Amec Foster Wheeler deal of a little over a year ago...
Published 80 days ago
Hello Share Pushers. With the price of oil once more rising, if only slowly, investors will be happier to own oil shares. But it might be more prudent to take advantage of the demand for the black stuff by buying into firms which are not actual producers, but instead the companies which supply oilers...
Published 97 days ago
Hello Share Pacers. Recently I opined that BP (BP.) was possibly a better bet than its rival Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA and RDSB) at the moment. But there’s not much in it, and it might be a good idea to take out the insurance of investing in both jumbos. The thing driving both shares at the moment is, of course, the rising oil price...
Published 134 days ago
Columbus Energy Resources (CERP) “is pleased to provide an update on business, operational and financial activities during Q4 2018”. However, this includes “gross revenues of US$3.23 million achieved (Q3 2018: US$3.85 million) - reduction due to lower average production and lower oil price achieved over the quarter”. Hmmm…
Published 137 days ago
Hello, Share Grabbers. Well, the New Year has bumped off to a decent start after a disastrous end to 2018. All the fears about a no-deal Brexit seem to have been priced in now. And some better news about the affair should send shares upwards fast. But, of course, some companies will continue to do better than others...
Published 157 days ago
Petrofac (PFC) is a British giant I don't think I’ve touched on before. But maybe now is the time to bring this engineer and constructor which serves the oil and gas world, to your notice. For one thing, it has had new orders worth $5 billion this year. The order pipeline is bulging with $10 billion in total...
Published 157 days ago
“Gulf Marine Services (LSE: GMS), the leading provider of advanced self-propelled self-elevating support vessels serving the offshore oil, gas and renewable energy sectors, provides the following trading update”. Not ‘is pleased to provide’ then. Let’s see why…
Published 173 days ago
Hello Share Kindlers. The price of Brent Crude has fallen rather a lot in the last six weeks. From $85 to $62 a barrel to be more precise. That’s understandable, as the black stuff was becoming a bit toppy. Part of the fall is due to a strange cycle in the oil market...
Published 188 days ago
Hello, Share Zappers. I once had a serious funny turn when I thought I’d sold my Tullow Oil (TLW) shares just before a massive upward valuation. Sighs of relief when I realised I had forgotten to hit the sell button in the last few minutes of the Friday trading.
Published 200 days ago
Hello, Share Sparers. Over a year or two now, I’ve extolled the arguments for investing in oil giants. That argument, especially for Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) is becoming more compelling. Here's the reason...
Published 206 days ago
Hello, Share Scramblers. One of my biggest holdings which I mainly maintain for the juicy dividend is BP (BP.). The results are now out for the third quarter of this year and, as expected, are sizzling. With the oil price still perky, despite recent falls, I would expect even better next time.
Published 214 days ago
Shares in BP (BP.) approached 600p as summer dawned and again earlier this month. They’ve been hit in the recent sell-off though, despite - already offering a hefty dividend - the second quarter results having emphasised “momentum and the strength of our financial frame… we are increasing our dividend for the first time in almost four years. This reflects not just our commitment to growing distributions to shareholders but our confidence in the future”…
Published 232 days ago
Hello Share Switchers. Amerisur Resources (AMER) is one of those companies in my bag that have done so badly over years, that the shares are not always worth keeping an eye on. However, there was hope this week for some sort of recovery.
Published 233 days ago
Provider of geological products and services Getech (GTC) has announced results for the first half of 2018, noting “a robust sales pipeline” and “we expect 2019 budgets to set a clearer and more positive path”...
Published 235 days ago
Hello, Share Minders. As the price of Brent crude continues to climb, still the big oil companies lag behind the surge. I keep stressing that their share prices will catch up, probably sooner than later. But what about the smaller fish?
Published 236 days ago
Ten years after the Great Recession’s onset, another long, deep downturn may soon roil the U.S. economy. The high level of asset prices today mirrors the earlier trend in house prices that preceded the 2008 crash; both mispricings reflect long periods of very low real interest rates caused by Federal Reserve policy. Now that interest rates are rising, equity prices will fall, dragging down household wealth, consumer spending and economic activity.
Published 240 days ago
Hello, Share Tasters. It’s rather amazing how people can hold grudges against companies which, somewhere in the mists of time, let them down. And yet we should always be mindful that the story changes all the time. And big losers in the past are often today’s brightest prospects.
Published 253 days ago
Hello, Share Markers. The big story of the week has not had much publicity. It’s the fact that Brent Crude reached a new high of $80 a barrel. Not an all-time record, of course, as it has traded at $140. But it could reach $100 in my view before it begins to fall again.
Published 289 days ago
Hello, Share Seekers. Having just filled my tank at huge cost, I rather think that the BP (BP.) balance sheet is having a jolly old time. The price of Brent Crude has been dithering lately, due to a surfeit of the black stuff in America. And yet the price at the pumps has soared.
Published 328 days ago
Hello, Share Sorters. One of the big British oilers whose share price I expect to see escalate, once the penny of rising oil prices finally drops, is Tullow (TLW).
Published 333 days ago
Hello Share Skimmers. I'm a bit tired of mentioning that producing oil companies are under-valued given the comparatively high price of the black and sticky. So let me vary things by bringing in companies which supply the oil industry instead.
Published 347 days ago
Hello Share Trackers. I’ve heard on Radio Four just now that petrol stations are being urged to cut prices by two pence a litre. According to the BBC, this is because the price of Brent Crude has fallen. Talk about an exaggeration! The price has only dropped a few points after skyrocketing in the last six months.
Published 370 days ago
Hello Share Strikers. In recent weeks, nay months, I’ve advocated buying shares in the big oilers, like Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.). I was very lucky here. And I still think there’s some way to go, with the price of Brent Crude once again at the top of the tree.
Published 375 days ago
Hello Share Scrollers. I think I recall saying way back in 2017 that the oil price could soar to reach $80 a barrel in the Spring. And we’re only a dollar away from that forecast now. Of course, I did not know that troubles in the Middle East would get so horribly worse.
Published 379 days ago
Did you see Friday's AGM trading update from oil services company John Wood Group (WG.)? Obviously I was all over it like a rash given it was one of my two tips of the year in late December and - as I noted here - a couple of months ago or so, it had a slightly sluggish start. The better news is that after Friday's move the stock is now back to where it started the year - and I think we go higher from here.
Published 382 days ago
Hello, Share Turners. As the Iranian question continues to dominate world news, the possibility of tougher US sanctions keeps the price of Brent crude spiralling upwards. Which is keeping the Footsie and the Dow buoyant, too. Good for share shifters like us, but sadly, bad for world peace.
Published 387 days ago
Hello, Share Screamers. What do you do when you learn a company has driven up its profits by 71% since last time? You consider buying the shares, of course. You might climb down after studying the numbers, but in the case of BP (BP.) I don’t think you’ll find much to worry about.
Published 389 days ago
Hello, Share Baggers. It’s a long time, if ever, since I brought up one of the most annoying stocks in my portfolio. That’s JKX Oil & Gas (JKX). And at long last, I see a glimmer of hope. I advised my wife to buy this company for her ISA yonks ago.
Published 395 days ago
Hello, Share Snackers. As you may have gathered, I constantly stress the importance of the currently steaming price of Brent crude. This happy trend will affect not just the oilers, but many other shares out there.
Published 396 days ago
Hello, Share Pickers. When a share continues to look even more promising after earlier recommendations, there’s an excuse to return to the story. So let’s have yet another stab at Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) - there are also Shell ‘B’ shares, known as 'RDSB', which are subject to Dutch rules on dividends, so you may get a better yield from these.
Published 410 days ago
Hello, Share Cakers. As troubles in the Middle East mount, it’s natural that oil prices will rise. And as I write, the cost of Brent crude has hit a new high. Not a record of course, as the price was once twice what it is now.
Published 471 days ago
Hello, Share Seekers. I have a bigger holding than is safe with BP (BP.), but I don't think I’m going to sell any for some time. Which is a bit of a silly statement to make as, just like any other company, the story could change at any time. But BP has ridden out the storm of compensation. And though the fight isn’t over yet, I think share shifters like us need not worry too much. This is a huge company which can absorb most shocks.
Published 480 days ago
Hello, Share Chillers. We have two reasons the Footsie is flat at the mo. One is the usual January post-Christmas party hang-over. Shares rose fast just before the 25th in a rosy cloud of Yuletide optimism. But, as nearly always happens, January produces a headache.
Published 485 days ago
Hello, Share Trekkies. The oil price still forges ahead. It’s around $71 for a barrel of Brent crude. And yet the big oil companies are not really reflecting the boom. However, they’ll probably catch up soon.
Published 506 days ago
Hello, Share Twinklers. Oil is the hot sector at the moment. The price of Brent Crude is recovering fast. Still a long way to go to those heady days of the $120 barrel, but it’s moving up strongly again.
Published 507 days ago
Hello Share Twangers. After a phoney war start, this winter is turning out to be quite chilly. Most of us saw snow over the Christmas period and though things have warmed up a bit now, there’s still an icy wind blowing. And it's even colder in many parts of the world, including the USA which is seeing temperatures plunge to record lows. Europe has also been unnaturally cold. All this has the effect of using up oil reserves.
Published 521 days ago
Hello, Share Smoothers. There's no point in my knocking the service given by the budget airline Easyjet (EZJ). For one thing, it would be hypocritical as I use the service more than any other flyer. This will no doubt apply to many of the other passengers swelling the airports for Christmas. And at last I am able to commend your further research into the company, as things are looking up.
Published 524 days ago
Hello Share Blasters. On the road in the grim north, I don't have access to the usual research channels. So allow me to review a trio of shares I've scanned in more detail recently, but which I believe have not so far taken full advantage of the current Santa Rally.
Published 552 days ago
Hello, Share Pingers. This kind of prediction can be doomed to failure, but I rather think the Santa Rally will kick in, at last, this week. There has been a slight retrench due to a faltering oil price. But at the end of last week, the cost of Brent crude had risen again - to $62.72 a barrel.
Published 562 days ago
Hello, Share Crunchers. With the oil price soaring and possibly targeting $70 a barrel, it’s worth looking at a few of the less gigantic producers. Today I give you Premier Oil (PMO) which does both oil and gas with operations based in some interesting places.
Published 571 days ago
Hello Share Twiddlers. It’s not long ago that I commended BP (BP.) to you. And it’s been rising ever since. The quarterly results are out and show the tip was justified. Normally, shares dip even on good news on reporting days, but for BP the shares rose again.
Published 572 days ago
Hello, Share Crimpers. My wife’s self-trading ISA account, which I monitor and occasionally advise upon, has done better than my own. Which is a jolly good job because one of my choices on her behalf was JKX (JKX), the oil company. This was a long time ago and since then the share price has gradually fallen. But…
Published 583 days ago
Hello, Share Scoopers. Sometimes, gang, it makes sense to include advice from a different source when bringing shares before you for a possible punt. Especially when the other analysts agree with me. The boys and girls at Barclays have repeated an ‘overweight’ commendation for two big oil giants, and I’m glad to say I have chunky holdings in both of them.
Published 584 days ago
Hello, Share Hearties. No mistake about it, Centrica (CNA) is a well-run company and a huge entity. Its market cap is £9.6 billion. But as we know, the expression ‘Too big to fail’ does not always work. Many of us will have lost money on British giants that went pear-shaped, like BT, British Energy, Northern Rock, RBS etc. And Centrica does not seem to me a rosy share to hold or buy at the moment.
Published 594 days ago
Hello, Share Scoopers. We all know that investing in airlines is one of the riskier areas of share shifting. What with the Ryanair (RYA) situation and the end of good old Monarch. But the more speculative among us should not, given a huge surge in air travel, give up on the flying sector altogether. So may I suggest that you look at another British-based budget airline.
Published 599 days ago
Hello Share Eaters. As I write, the share I recommend you look at today is nudging towards its all-time high price. Will it now run out of steam? Not if most of the signs are anything to go by. And meanwhile, there is a vast divi, paid four times a year.
Published 610 days ago
Hello, Share Collectors. Many of us, I know, are still awash in oil stocks, both the producers and riskier explorers. I’ve been advising that we cut down, as the competition from wind, sun, waves and biomass, threatens to grow. But I think I may have been too hard on ebony nectar and here are a few reasons why.
Published 674 days ago
Hello, Share Pingers. Budget airline EasyJet (EZJ) has issued a trading statement to say that passengers in its third quarter were up by more than nearly 11% to 22 million. Revenues improved by 16% to £1.4 billion.
Published 716 days ago
Hello Share Swabbers. I’ve held Tullow Oil (TLW) shares for as long as I can remember. At one stage they were up 120%. Nowadays I’m down by 50%. Like all the other big oil producers the share price has been attacked by the falling value of Brent crude. But Tullow seems to have suffered more than most.
Published 722 days ago
Hello Share Mashers. It’s going to be a scary end to the week. What if Labour gets in? The Big City won’t like that and shares will dive heavily. But that will be a short-lived shocker, in my view. Because Jezzer in power will cause the pound to fall even lower. And that more than anything is keeping the Footsie at record highs.
Published 731 days ago
Hello Share Ticklers. The old memory doesn’t get any better as I motor towards the end of life’s great highway, but I don’t think I've looked at IMI (IMI) here before.
Published 732 days ago
Hello Share Crunchers. I hold stock in an awful lot of oil producers, perhaps too many. But one company which has never lit my fire is Cairn Energy (CNE). Maybe I should dip in, though.
Published 733 days ago
One of the most fascinating scenes I’ve seen for some time is the sight of Big Donald jigging around with some sort of weird entertainment put on by the Saudi’s for the President's visit. It almost made me forget the big benefit of this amiable state visit on share shifters like us. And that of course is that the President’s friendly reception sent the oil price up.
Published 769 days ago
Hello Share Rattlers. On checking the number of BP shares I hold, I was rather shocked. It’s one of those shares I’ve been gradually building up, whenever I find myself with a bit of share cash and no clear company currently worthy of investment.
Published 778 days ago
Hello Share Chirpers. Once again, hostilities threaten the world. The Americans have launched a missile strike on a Syrian airfield. The Russians and the Iranians don’t like it. The Middle East is in even more turmoil.
Published 796 days ago
High market prices are currently being supported by OPEC cutbacks, and these higher profits are funding the growth of American drilling. American oil explorers who survived the worst of the 2014-2016 market sell off are dismissive of the 14 percent slide in prices this year from a high of $55.24 to around $48 a barrel. The price would have to drop to the $30s or lower to dent the bottom line of many drillers now working U.S. shale fields, according to Katherine Richard, the CEO of Warwick Energy Investment Group, which own stakes in more than 5,000 oil and natural gas wells.
Published 832 days ago
It takes two to tango or, rather, two to make a market. I am not exactly a great fan of LGO Energy (LGO) having called this as a teddy to perfection. But Andrew Monk of VSA reckons it is time to bottom fish and since I believe in free speech I am happy to publish his reasoning from his morning email.
Published 849 days ago
Bulls of LGO Energy (LGO), like our own pet in house BB loon Wildes, argue that the decline in its share price is entirely down to the falling oil price and nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that it has hopeless assets in Trinidad which, however much cash is thrown at them, cannot produce enough oil to generate free cashflow. I offer you up four charts, sent in by a kind reader, which should show this in pictures, since folks like Wildes find long words a tad confusing.
Published 877 days ago
Hello Share Splodgers. Have you considered buying shares in Petrofac (PFC)? It’s one of the world’s biggest providers of infrastructure, including buildings and equipment to the oil and gas world.
Published 928 days ago
Specialist exploration data and petroleum systems studies and evaluations provider, Getech (GTC) has announced results for its year ended 31st July 2016, including axing the dividend as oil prices remained “low and volatile”. The following reviews, with the shares currently more than 11.5% lower on the day, at 26.5p…
Published 962 days ago
The world still hates small oil stocks. We are not sure when that will change but given how many of the mid caps are collapsing either entirely (Afren) or surviving only via schemes that see shareholders almost wiped out ( XCite, Gulfsands, Gulf Keystone, IGAS, LGO, etc, etc) we feel we could be at a Burmah Castrol moment. Do a google search if you are too young to understand the reference!
Published 1001 days ago
For my sins, I took some time to read through 88 Energy’s Interim Report released last Monday. While continuing to believe that the attractiveness of a stock is inversely related to the number of other investors who are analysing it, I decided nevertheless to see what all the fuss was about.
Published 1056 days ago
A “Trading Update” from shipping services company Clarkson (CKN) includes notice early of “deterioration in freight rates” reflecting an “increase in global economic uncertainty and the continuing imbalance between supply and demand in shipping and offshore”. Uh oh…
Published 1094 days ago
Hello Share Changers. What gave me the arrogance to say that the oil price would rally quite nicely this year was experience. Though I am no longer an energetic young trader, I have been plying our golden game since I first dated Bodicea. So I know that when the price of a commodity falls, it always bounces back. Always. So the recovery of oil was never the world’s greatest prediction.
Published 1114 days ago
Hello Share Turners. It’s Carnival (CCL) time again. I’ve commended to you before the biggest leisure cruise company in the world. Let me update that view. Carnival is the face of British capitalism that launched 100 ships. That’s enough for 212,000 berths, or sleeping places as we non-nautical types like to say. It operates under a few famous names, including P&O Cruises, Cunard, Swan and Princess. And it does cruises, well, all over the place.
Published 1118 days ago
Hello Share Chancers. It wasn’t so long ago that my colleague Amanda Van Dyke was getting it in the neck on this beloved website for commending us all to buy gold. Now those detractors have had to admit they were wrong. We heard at the UK Investor Show more than one expert say that gold was the thing to buy, still. But though I’m holding onto my gold miners, I am now switching my main hopes to a rally in the next business which is likely to hit back. after a very bad time.
Published 1137 days ago
Every piece of Turkish has its day and shares in dog with fleas Rose Petroleum (ROSE) jumped yesterday prompting a statement from the company that is truly laughable.
Published 1153 days ago
Hello Share Crunchers. If we assume - and I think this might be a safe bet - that oil prices will perk up, then perhaps we should cast about for shares in the energy game which might ride the rally.
Published 1158 days ago
LGO has been flagging that this would happen for months but now that the royalty rates on Goudron have been cut, Neil Ritson is announcing the news as if it was the second coming of Jesus. It is not. For starters Jesus would struggle to find three wise men and a virgin to welcome him at any company associated with David Lenigas. This company is still screwed and more confetti issues are ineviable ahead of its next formal debt repayment default in May.
Published 1169 days ago
Hello Share Flingers. For quite a few months now, I've abandoned my earlier practice of looking only at the stocks I hold, in the conviction that I should not put commebdations your way that I haven't the courage to invest in myself.
Published 1178 days ago
I cannot say that this is a million miles away from my own view except that I am more bearish than the broker on global demand for oil given where I see the world economy heading. Thus - unless there is all out war in the Middle East - my view is that a sustained recovery in the oil price is a 2017 or late 2016 story and won't happen sooner which means stacks more PLC casualties (here are my top 11 to fold BTW). We shall see. I thought this morning's note rather interesting. It follows below:
Published 1186 days ago
Premier Oil (PMO) has today served up full year numbers and all things considered it is not quite the horror show it could have been. The E.On acqusition looks transformational but hang on...what is this in the final sentence of the opening verbage:
Published 1192 days ago
It is still my view that the current low oil price is offering plenty of opportunities to buy shares in producers at a depressed share price.
Published 1194 days ago
Hello Share Shafters. I keep stressing, to the point of boredom I expect, that these days, it’s best to choose companies which pay richer dividends. We cannot rely on share prices rising, but even in the choppiest waters, some firms manage to award a decent divi two to four times a year.
Published 1199 days ago
Bowleven (BLVN) like so many other AIM oil companies has been a big disappointment to anyone who has invested longer term – including myself in the past! But if you’re looking to buy into any smaller oil companies at a time when the oil price is down around the $30 area that we are currently seeing, then it would be high on my list, and probably right at the top.
Published 1211 days ago
As I have said before the US Energy Information Agency (the EIA) has a thankless task, compiling data from thousands of oilfields and operators to come up with an estimate of how much oil the USA actually produces. Some data is timely and accurate, Alaska is a case in point, some, not so much.
Published 1217 days ago
Hello Share Swiggers. Journey Group (JNY) might be worth a tickle. It’s a company which brings good quality meals and snacks into aeroplanes. Yes, I know that sounds like a contradiction in terms, but somebody has to do something about airline meals.
Published 1220 days ago
Northern Petroleum (NOP) has today announced it has completed its Rainbow deal in Canada and hapless CEO little Keith Bush has insisted that cash is not an issue. The, heavily spun, statement skips critical details and the fact is that Northern will be out of cash a lot sooner than most folks think. This looks terminal.
Published 1221 days ago
We are in the midst of a rout and the oil market has literally lost its mind. There is no logic or sense in the market whatsoever.
Published 1223 days ago
This almost feels like intruding on private grief, shares in MX Oil (MXO) now trading at just 0.875p - well below the 1p par value of the - now clearly struggling - placing, but I have just a few more questions that shareholders should be asking the company in light of yesterday's statement.
Published 1225 days ago
The weekend news from the oil sector is grim. I am not sure that folks out there in, what Malcolm Stacey might term, punterland realise just how grim it is. There is a massive PR and IR industry supporting the proposition that things can only get better. Au contraire, for the next few months at least, they are going to get a lot worse. And in that spirit I offer up a list of eleven oil E&Ps to sell now, to get out what and while you can, as they could well hit zero.
Published 1229 days ago
Friends, Oilmen, Economists, I come not to bury Sieminski but to praise him. In case you don't know (I confess I didn't) Adam Sieminski is the Administrator of the US Energy Information Administration, or the EIA. He, or more likely someone in his organisation, publishes a monthly forecast of oil production for the USA. It is called the Short Term Energy Outlook and in this post I am going to take a look at some of those forecasts over the past few years to see how Adam and his team have done.
Published 1233 days ago
I read lots of commentary claiming that only now (when Brent is less than $35/bbl) are we getting back to the long run average oil price, which of course is where some economists think it should be.
Published 1239 days ago
This company is on the precipice. It needs to raise £5-6 million in emergency equity to keep going and everything is going against it. The best case for LGO Energy (LGO) is mega dilution from whatever is a confetti issuing machine, but an equally plausible outcome is insolvency.
Published 1245 days ago
Once or twice I make predictions and sometimes I get them spot on and sometimes they are so spectacularly wrong I think it best to crawl under a rock and abandon the recently adopted profession of seer.
Published 1248 days ago
How many macro-economic forecasters does it take to change a lightbulb? None. You get someone who knows what they are doing to do it. In that vein I offer up my six big macro calls for 2016. I am a bottom up investor - my share tips of the year will follow - so this is not really my forte but I have views - and did study economics at university - and these shape my investment calls. So here goes.
Published 1249 days ago
"It's the way I tell em" used to say Frank Carson, before continuing "Its a cracker". But old Frank had nothing on his fellow Irish comedian wee Brian McDonnell of US Oil & Gas (USOP) which served up a stormer of a Christmas update yesterday. Brian, you crack me up...it's the way you tell em. That classic "The dog ate our drill test results" still has me in stitches. And now this.
Published 1249 days ago
Petroceltic's (PCI) year just got a whole lot worse when at 5.24pm yesterday, a.k.a '' nobody is watching o' clock " the company rolled out the red carpet of piffle from an operational and financing update inc. a strategic review. As Petroceltic has a history of trying to gag anonymous bloggers (whilst I don't hide) I think I'll skate gently on the thin ice its business model is built upon. I don't want to spend Christmas suffering another attack from an army of delusional investors crowing that Petroceltic is a real value play when in reality the paddywack performance is plain to see.
Published 1253 days ago
The oil price is on its knees, but I think we’re very close to being at a stage where its time to start buying oil producers for the longer term. The trick is going to be picking those that are strong enough to survive in the current climate, and avoiding those that could get into serious trouble with their debt.
Published 1266 days ago
Oil producers have had a terrible year, but I think there could be more of the same to come and we will see some more casualties. Unfortunately oil is one of my favourite sectors and it has performed abysmally over the past 12 months or so, thanks to the crash in oil prices, with WTI currently sitting at around the $40 area, and Brent at circa $43.
Published 1267 days ago
In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.
Published 1267 days ago
OPEC is the ultimate cartel, it was formed to get its members a better price for their product than the free market would allow, and the members did that by working together to restrict supply. There is a reason that governments outlaw cartels, they prevent prices finding their true level and they transfer wealth from consumers to producers.
Published 1277 days ago
Something different today...This time it's a video blog post wherein I expound my theory on why this oil price slump is not a re-run of the eighties, thank goodness, and finish with my view of where the oil price is headed. On the way I answer the mystery of who it was that ate all the pies.
Published 1291 days ago
Shares in Xcite Energy (XEL) are up 6.25% this morning on news of the company’s farm-in with Azinor Catalyst Limited. Under the terms of the deal, Azinor has the opportunity to earn into the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Licence P.1979, held by Xcite’s subsidiary Xcite Energy Resources. In return for completing a technical evaluation and then possibly an Induced Polarization survey of P.1979, Azinor could receive as much as 50% of the licence’s equity. On the face of it this looks like decent enough news for Xcite. The deal should enable progress at this non-core asset, allowing the company to focus on its flagship Bentley project. However, Xcite is giving up a significant proportion of P.1979 in return. The question now is, can this deal deliver value to shareholders?
Published 1292 days ago
This morning Bowleven (BLVN) announced its full year results. The company has made excellent operational progress and its balance sheet remains strong. On 30 June Bowleven was debt free, had a cash balance of $145.3million (£96million) and the expectation of the equivalent of up to a further $80million investment under the terms of the Etinde farm out ($40million free carry in two appraisal wells and $40million in cash payments, subject to certain milestones). Although the cash balance will have been eaten into over the last 4 months, during which two exploration wells were drilled at Bomono, Bowleven is in rude financial health. So why does the market continue to punish its share price?
Published 1298 days ago
On Guy Fawkes night I reflect on the horrors of this day. Then news from ECR Minerals (ECR) and W Resources (WRES) prompts me to look at the mining sector in general. Then it is onto Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) and my thoughts on oil, oil shares, the oil price and oil services companies. Then to the dismal numbers from Canaccord Genuity (CF.) - what it says about the whole sector but also its company specific issues. Finally I take a swipe at Range Resurces (RRL)
Published 1305 days ago
Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) delivered a fairly upbeat set of results this morning. Although the company recorded a $50.8million loss, $49.8million of this stemmed from an impairment charge relating to the company’s West Medvezhye project in Russia. The much more positive news was that operations in Cameroon delivered a profit after tax of $5.4million. Even so, the market appears to have been fairly underwhelmed by this and Victoria Oil & Gas’ share price is off 2.5% at 58p, last seen. This values the company at £64.6million. The question now is might there be a value case for buying this stock with a medium outlook?
Published 1308 days ago
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at [email protected] - Today I look at shares of First Quantum (FQM), Kromek (KNK), Xcite Energy (XEL) and offer some share price targets.
Published 1319 days ago
Another day and it’s another conference presentation by Neil Ritson, the hapless CEO, of cash burning & drowning in debt LGO Energy (LGO). And for once I commend him for his honesty in listing five reasons to sell shares in LGO.
Published 1324 days ago
In my humble opinion - and I know this will bring a deluge of detractions - oil prices will now recover. And with this happy circumstance, of course, so will the very depressed share prices of some of our old favourites.
Published 1333 days ago
I worry if I am losing my mind, but Tower Resources (TRP) is fast becoming a conviction buy for me. Yesterday the company announced the appointment of two relatively heavyweight technical directors to the board. Following on from recent institutional support, successful acquisition of the Thali Production Sharing Contract (PSC) offshore Cameroon and a flurry of insider purchase, the signs are all there that some significant is happening for this shock.
Published 1340 days ago
Brazil is cleaning up its act, the national oil company, Petrobras, and its contractors are being dragged through a car wash. The country, the company and the industry will be better for it but in the process famous and respected companies will become casualties; some have already suffered, but investors will want to know how to predict who will be next in the firing line. Skip to the last paragraph if that is all you want to know.
Published 1356 days ago
North Sea oil is hardly something that I would generally be rushing to put money into at the moment. The collapse in the price of Brent has led to lots of job cuts recently and cutbacks in the development of new assets – some of which are no longer viable at current oil prices. But some companies might be, including possibly Faroe Petroleum (FPM).
Published 1366 days ago
Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) has seen its share price hammered in recent months, but that could present a good buying opportunity. AMEC (as it was formerly known) took over Foster Wheeler in November 2014 to form the new combined entity, and at the time the new shares were trading around the 1100p area, but since then it has had lots of ups and downs and has failed to regain those highs.
Published 1370 days ago
Back in February 2015, Bob Dudley, BP's CEO, said in a Bloomberg TV interview that the fundamental supply and demand picture reminded him of 1986, and he feared we could go into a period of lower oil prices perhaps staying in a range below $60/bbl for as long as three years. He added "It will be a long time before we see $100/bbl again."
Published 1373 days ago
Hello Share Freakies. May I offer a few opinions on the way the world economies are going - and, to adapt the famous line from Harold Wilson - their effect on the shares in our pocket.
Published 1374 days ago
The share price of LGO Energy (LGO) has plummeted recently, but I still think it looks over-valued and wouldn’t be buying. At the start of the year I gave a sell recommendation on the company when the share price was around 3.5p, giving a market cap of circa £100 million, and since then it has fallen to its current level of 1.55p on the ask.
Published 1379 days ago
A friend from God’s Chosen Country asks whether I should be slamming Fastnet (FAST) for getting out of the oil business. Au contraire. Yes there must be red faces at this AIM listed Irish oil explorer but I think it is doing the right thing and that more should follow. I applaud Cathal Friel for taking the flak for doing the right thing.
Published 1382 days ago
Oil companies have been hammered again in recent months, but I think there is still far worse to come for some of them. Reading the bulletin boards you could probably be forgiven for not realising the extent of the problems that many producers will be facing in the near future, as some investors are sticking their heads in the sand and expecting a quick bounce back in the oil price – as they have been for months now!
Published 1410 days ago
What constitutes a “fair and reasonable” related transaction? This is the question shareholders in MX Oil (MXO) should be asking themselves after discovering on Monday that their company has agreed to pay Cornhill Asset Management a $1.8million bonus for sourcing the 5% stake in the OML 113 licence, offshore Nigeria. The $1.8million, contingent on two relatively minor conditions, is an extremely generous reward to Cornhill and its shareholders for an investment made less than six weeks ago. There are further difficult questions to answer about this transaction so I contacted Andrew Frangos, CEO of Cornhill Asset Management and Chairman of MX Oil, to see what he had to say.
Published 1422 days ago
Hello Shares Wobblers. I’ve just been phoned by the Emirates National Oil Company. They’re the big outfit which is attempting to take over Dragon Oil (DGO).
Published 1481 days ago
Hello Share Spikers. There are a lot of us still awash in oil shares. Remember that Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA)is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, companies on the biggest of all British share clubs, the Footsie.
Published 1484 days ago
Predicting the future is hard, particularly if you attach a date to your prediction as then observers can pretty easily work out if you were right or wrong. No one likes being wrong, so most soothsayers try to avoid this trap by being wooly about the timing. In my very first post about the oil price I was just as cautious, with a vague prediction that in the long run prices would oscillate around about $80/bbl.
Published 1486 days ago
Hello Share Swillers. I happen to know there are a lot of BG (BG.) shareholders reading this splendiferous website. That’s because we get a lot of interest every time the natural gas giant is mentioned.
Published 1494 days ago
They say never make predictions, especially about the future; and by "they" I mean just about everyone, the quote is variously attributed to Yogi Berra, Albert Einstein and Dan Qualye, amongst others.
Published 1512 days ago
Oil companies are a favourite with private investors, but in recent times it has been hard to actually make a profit from them, unless you’ve been shorting. The market is now very different to how it was back in 2010, when throughout the oil sector we saw some crazy rises, especially amongst some of the smaller explorers.
Published 1516 days ago
Genel Energy (GENL) was one of my long term picks for 2015, and I’m still confident that it will come good despite the recent drop in the share price. In fact I think at the current level of around 470p it offers even more value than it did a few months back, and I have been buying myself at close to the current price.
Published 1521 days ago
I was on an EasyJet (EZJ) plane yesterday and a generally fairly pleasant experience it was too. Admittedly there were not free drinks or nibbles, I had to print out my own boarding card (in a personal technological first I actually downloaded it to my phone – who said you cannot teach an old dog new tricks!) and there were attempts to cross-sell me all sorts of things I did not want but as an overall A-to-B travel experience it was absolutely fine and did what it said on the tin without being too minimalist or crude.
Published 1522 days ago
Last week the Chancellor offered some relief to a North Sea industry suffering from high costs and low oil prices. He didn't do it out of the kindness of his heart but rather to keep new projects coming online and to make investment in old fields that bit more attractive.
Published 1524 days ago
Hello Share Fiends. I've never been a fan of airlines as an investment. It always seemed to me that the risks of everyday running were too high.
Published 1543 days ago
With so many oil companies having been hit so hard it can be difficult to pick which ones offer the best value and a good chance of recovery. With its share price currently within 20% of the lows we saw when oil plummeted to around $45 late last year, I think Premier Oil (PMO) is worth a look.
Published 1544 days ago
Afren (AFR) has defaulted as expected, and huge dilution is on its way for shareholders. I'm sorry for all genuine, non-abusive shareholders who are going to lose money in the company . I've been there, and anyone who has been in the market for a long time and claims differently is a liar. The Board of Directors are now duty bound to seek maximum recovery values for its creditors. Bonds currently trade at about 45c.
Published 1548 days ago
Hello Share Swaggers. It's always nice when a company recommended by your Yorkshire correspondent on this splendiferous website rockets to the top of the winner's board a few weeks later.
Published 1557 days ago
When the oil price is in three figures there isn't too much angst about what price it takes to payback the investment in a project, but flirt with forty dollars a barrel for a fortnight and suddenly breakeven price is the metric in vogue.
Published 1558 days ago
Hello Share Smashers. I'm fairly sure a load of our readers are still invested heavily in oil. I know I am.
Published 1566 days ago
Hello Share Munchers. If you look at any old graph in Shareland, you will see that sudden massive dips are almost always followed by a recovery.
Published 1567 days ago
At oil prices of less than $50/bbl not many North Sea projects look very profitable, especially when you evaluate the investments with the costs operators have become accustomed to paying over the last three or four years. But in a low oil price environment demand for services will fall and when demand falls, prices will fall too. But how far and how fast?
Published 1570 days ago
We have now had the 2014 prelims for both BP (BP.A) and Shell (RDSA) which gives us the opportunity to do a bit of comparing and contrasting of these two giant, integrated, international oil and gas businesses. Basically and very simply, they have much in common as investments at this time.
Published 1589 days ago
It really is time that I took the mantle up and commented on some of the so-called “Bulletin Board Heroes” for exactly what they are. At best lifestyle companies run for the benefit of their Board at worst out and out frauds using the London Stock Exchange as a mechanism for Corporate self-aggrandisement. Of course not all are fakirs or frauds some are just badly run companies while others have failed through poor management decisions or been subject to the vagaries of the market in which they operate. I hear an awful lot about the “China frauds” but there’s another class of dodgy geezers operating out of Perth Western Australia. The “Aussie Lurkers. What’s a Lurk? Google it!
Published 1592 days ago
Hello Stock Trundlers. Yes, it's a stodgy old time in the share market swamp. Even the companies in the most fashionable areas are no longer seeing reasonable gains.
Published 1592 days ago
Everyone is well aware that the oil price has plummeted, but many have yet to consider the wider implications of this drop. Unless you’ve been living in a cave you can’t help but have noticed the collapse in oil price, but many investors are still only considering it in terms of whether they hold shares in oil producing companies, or even just the fact that it is now cheaper to fill up their car!
Published 1592 days ago
Infamous bear raider Lucian Miers is of the view that the oil price is not going to spike higher in a hurry and that this is going to cause real pain across the sector. He has made money shorting Afren (AFR) where the debt looks company consuming at current oil prices but perhaps the bid will save it so Miers has closed that position. However...
Published 1594 days ago
A vicious Bearcast at the weekend appears to have forced Northern Petroleum (NOP) into issuing a profits (or lack of) warning but it is still not coming clean with its long suffering shareholders – why does this company regard transparency as a four letter word? The shares are off again today to 10.5p but remain a sell with an initial 5p target.
Published 1595 days ago
I have been asked several times why Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) was not one of my two share tips for 2015. Well it just missed out. It would have been the third had I been allowed three.
Published 1596 days ago
In today's podcast I refer to the excellent Black Swan 2015 review by Richard Poulden which you should all read. I cover the issue of how low the oil price could go but also what we as investors should assume that it will be. I touch on IGAS and Northern Petroleum (both shorts). And the I look at the issue of what constitutes market abuse in the Bulletin Board Moron community
Published 1596 days ago
OK so today I’ll give you my thoughts on other areas – so Airlines and Tour Operators, which Are my hobby sectors, and also a little bit on Energy as that is also an area we are looking to get more involved in and Agri
Published 1597 days ago
Every time I look at LGO Energy (LGO) I wonder if I am missing something in terms of its value – currently £94 million. To me it currently looks incredibly expensive when compared to other oil producers, some of whom are at a far more advanced stage and with an awful lot more in the way of both production and reserves.
Published 1599 days ago
Should we steer clear of the oil sector or look for ways to profit? That was the subject of a recent interview with Rick Rule, Chairman of Sprott US Holdings, the largest resource investor in North America. Rule issued a stark warning.
Published 1609 days ago
I tipped BP (BP.) last year at 484p on the basis that the shares looked good value and without the foresight of knowing that the price of crude oil would fall so far and so fast, particularly given the recovery of the US economy and the eternal problems of the Middle East. Not a good call in hindsight.
Published 1609 days ago
My first ‘tip for 2015’ has to be Genel Energy (GENL) which has the potential for big returns and is better positioned than some of its peers.
Published 1621 days ago
The Oil price slide throws up some interesting opportunities on the AIM market. I have shorted a basket of five stocks on the basis that if it continues to fall or stays at these levels they will get into serious financial difficulty very rapidly. If it rallies the upside is hopefully limited by management practices that are unlikely to reward shareholders.
Published 1622 days ago
This article is difficult to write due to the unexpected nature of what happened at the recent OPEC meeting which has caused the oil price to tank by 40%. Should we panic?
Published 1625 days ago
Last July when the skies were blue and the weather warmer, I stumbled across what looked like the depressed share price of Carnival Plc. (CCL) the Caribbean cruise liner company; the shares were then 2117p. Last seen, the share price was almost 2790p – an increase of 31% in five months.
Published 1626 days ago
Some of you will think that I’ve taken leave of my senses to even be looking at anything in the oil sector at the moment.
Published 1627 days ago
IGAS CEO Andrew “piggy” Austin still has not come clean on his shoddy Equities First Holdings LLC loan/share sale deal – FFS at what price is your margin call piggy? But that is the least of his woes. I reckon that the shares are worth 20p at best (see HERE) but now even his own house broker Canaccord ( yes those mothers of Quenron fame) is flagging up a potential gaping balance sheet issue.
Published 1627 days ago
The US Supreme Court has piled more misery on BP (BP.) by rejecting its legal challenge to the compensation package over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
Published 1633 days ago
Today I take a look at one of the tips that has not gone so well to say the least. With the crude oil price cratering, so too has the share price of Fastnet (FAST), but it did not shed the majority on the back of the oil fall. Instead it decided to tank on the back of a comment by Chairman Cathal Friel to the press where he said that a return of cash and move into the medical sector could happen because of the oil price. The share price slumped 40% on that announcement which is an over-reaction and here is why.
Published 1635 days ago
Given how oil stocks have been slaughtered recently it might seem as bit silly to even be considering buying any. Especially when some commentators are forecasting Armageddon with oil prices slipping even lower to previously unimaginable levels – I’ve even seen mention of $40 per barrel being seen!
Published 1637 days ago
I read with interest my friend Ben Turney’s post OPEC bear view on the oil price and stocks HERE. I disagree with him and my initial economic reasoning is that lower oil prices will see heavily indented US fracking firms wiped out so restoring a supply demand balance.
Published 1638 days ago
It’s been coming for the last four months, but on Thursday OPEC finally declared open war on the US “Shale Revolution”. Yesterday, Chris Oil felt this might present a short term buying opportunity in AIM oil-stocks. I disagree. OPEC’s failure to cut production and the accompanying statement it released are clear signals of intent. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Companies, despite intense internal pressure from some of its members, has set itself on a course to crush the highly leveraged “fracking boom”. There is almost certainly going to be a lot of collateral damage, not least among AIM’s oil exploration and production sector, which is so reliant on external funding for survival.
Published 1639 days ago
It seems that OPEC is willing to keep production at the same level 30 million barrels per day as before. The oil price has duly tanked so is this bad news for all oil companies?
Published 1639 days ago
Petrofac (PFC) has a bit of a reputation amongst its shareholders for shooting itself in the foot every time it looks to be doing well!
Published 1643 days ago
During the last 24 hours there has been a raft of coverage about the aggressive low ball offer from Sound Oil (SOU) for 100% of Antrim Energy's (AEY) share capital. The offer may initially look a bit cheeky but I agree with Ben Turney in his piece HERE when he say's '' it's not a sellers’ market. ''
Published 1643 days ago
What a dramatic announcement from Sound Oil (SOU) this morning. Some might call the company’s unsolicited swoop for Antrim Energy (AEY) predatory. There’s no denying it has an aggressive feel to it, but only a fool would believe that this is a seller’s market for oil companies.
Published 1654 days ago
With the recent fall in oil prices many companies in the oil and gas sector look ‘cheap’, but Afren (AFR) has to be one of the best value buys around.
Published 1669 days ago
BP (BP.) posted results which exceeded expectations yesterday. At the time of writing, the share price has been boosted to 440.1p. It wasn’t long ago that the shares dipped below 410p.
Published 1670 days ago
Further to my last Flybe (FLYB) article the most recent update underpins the buy case with new routes announced which should underpin broker forecasts of a £50 million pre-tax profit for the year to March 2016.
Published 1679 days ago
That was a volatile week! As Fast FT noted though due to the bounce back on Friday it was not a wipe out week for index trackers: “The gains, though, weren't enough to erase losses for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Dow 1 per cent lower over the past five days – the fourth consecutive week of declines”. So what next?
Published 1695 days ago
Shares in Vedanta Resources (VED) did very well last time I tipped them, and it looks like it is time to think about buying back in again. Back in March I tipped Vedanta at 845p and a few months later it hit highs of over 1200p, and now that it is back down in the 940s it is well worth buying at this level and on any further dips.
Published 1795 days ago
It would appear that inside the callousness and murderous propensities of the latest Islamic terrorist group ISIS, there seems to be some kind of business like brain. We were first alerted to that by the FT, when it published its last annual report for its financial donors and backers evidently in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. But could a surprise beneficiary of the militants’ entrepreneurialism be International Airline Group (IAG)?