The December 2017 edition of the UK Investor Magazine is now live: What will Father Christmas be putting in the stockings of the writers of ShareProphets, nine share tips , plus sexism at the BBC
Published 20 days ago
Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) is a company which I have been pretty negative on in recent times, and certainly nothing has happened to change my view on it, certainly in the shorter term.
Published 79 days ago
Hello, Share Smashers. At the mo, there are some nasty threats to our shares prices. High consumer, corporate and national debt. Comparatively high PE ratios. Over-cooked company valuations, low wages, higher inflation and a bull market, past its sell-by date. But all those perils can be offset by the following massive factor…
Published 212 days ago
Hello Share Pokers. If any more evidence was needed that we live in strange times it is this weekend’s news that the Bank of England was investigated by the Serious Fraud Office. I ask you!
Published 240 days ago
Hello Share Smashers. OPEC, the cartel of 12 big oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, has let us down.
Published 244 days ago
One of the most fascinating scenes I’ve seen for some time is the sight of Big Donald jigging around with some sort of weird entertainment put on by the Saudi’s for the President's visit. It almost made me forget the big benefit of this amiable state visit on share shifters like us. And that of course is that the President’s friendly reception sent the oil price up.
Published 261 days ago
Hello Share Grinders. Unusually for me, I’m a little pessimistic this weekend. And the cause - a very weak oil price. This is a big disappointment, as the signs a few months ago were that the price of the ebony nectar was on the rise.
Published 308 days ago
High market prices are currently being supported by OPEC cutbacks, and these higher profits are funding the growth of American drilling. American oil explorers who survived the worst of the 2014-2016 market sell off are dismissive of the 14 percent slide in prices this year from a high of $55.24 to around $48 a barrel. The price would have to drop to the $30s or lower to dent the bottom line of many drillers now working U.S. shale fields, according to Katherine Richard, the CEO of Warwick Energy Investment Group, which own stakes in more than 5,000 oil and natural gas wells.
Published 308 days ago
Hello Share Twirlers. Though the Footsie has been striding ahead, it would have done far better if the oil price had behaved itself. We are not just talking oil shares, but the whole of the share economy. A weak oil price has a negative effect all round.
Published 353 days ago
Hello Share Pagers. The results of Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) were not too clever. Profits down by another 37% on last time. But remember how lousy the price of Brent Crude is at the moment.
Published 385 days ago
Looking at the performance of many oil producers over the past few months you could easily be forgiven for thinking that their problems are over and all is rosy within the sector once more.
Published 405 days ago
Hello Share Cybers. One does not like to preen. And to be honest I haven't had much justification lately, what with Advanced Oncotherapy's woes. But you will allow that I did see oil prices rising.
Published 413 days ago
Hello Share Twangers. I was beginning to worry that my predictions that the price of Brent crude would rise steadily were not going to happen. The ebony nectar value has been falling in the last month or so (by about 10%).
Published 467 days ago
Hello Share Twiggers. The price of oil continues to nudge up. As I write, it is only a whisper away from a 10 month high. I see no reason why that trend won’t continue, especially with winter drawing on and my central heating boilers going full pelt for the first time today. Another clue to rising oil prices is that big costs are returning at the petrol pumps.
Published 472 days ago
In my humble view, now could be a good time to return to oil shares. I certainly hope so, as I have lost a packet since the big oil crash which began a few years ago. I’ve gradually dumped my holdings in the hopeful explorers, but I still have major holdings in the big producers, like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), BP (BP.) and Tullow (TLW). All of them are well shy of their previous bests.
Published 593 days ago
Hello Share Poodles. As so many of us hold shares in companies involved in the ebony nectar, it’s seems a good wheeze to once again bring you bang up to date on how the price of Brent crude should fare in the next few months. Because there’s little doubt that the value of the black stuff has a huge bearing on share prices. And not just those of oil companies, but nearly every other listed firm as well. It’s a question of high oil prices raising general confidence.
Published 775 days ago
Hello Share Trippers. Oh dear! The price of crude oil drops to less than 40 dollars a barrel.That’s really nasty and we can blame OPEC for refusing to cut down on the amber nectar it has for sale.
Published 777 days ago
Once again the money markets behave in a totally balmy and yet predictable way.Towards the end of last week, the Dow suddenly fell like a super charged stone. British shares followed in their usual obsequious way.
Published 778 days ago
Oil producers have had a terrible year, but I think there could be more of the same to come and we will see some more casualties. Unfortunately oil is one of my favourite sectors and it has performed abysmally over the past 12 months or so, thanks to the crash in oil prices, with WTI currently sitting at around the $40 area, and Brent at circa $43.
Published 779 days ago
In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.
Published 779 days ago
OPEC is the ultimate cartel, it was formed to get its members a better price for their product than the free market would allow, and the members did that by working together to restrict supply. There is a reason that governments outlaw cartels, they prevent prices finding their true level and they transfer wealth from consumers to producers.
Published 881 days ago
Back in February 2015, Bob Dudley, BP's CEO, said in a Bloomberg TV interview that the fundamental supply and demand picture reminded him of 1986, and he feared we could go into a period of lower oil prices perhaps staying in a range below $60/bbl for as long as three years. He added "It will be a long time before we see $100/bbl again."
Published 886 days ago
Last week I spotted a very interesting chart that Gregor MacDonald tweeted which showed world oil production over recent years excluding the USA. The chart was pretty flat and that got me wondering about the extent to which the world has come to depend upon Light Tight Oil in the USA and, for that matter, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage projects in Canada.
Published 1106 days ago
The recent collapse in oil prices has taken pundits and oil producers by surprise. It was only six months ago that prices were over $100/bbl and at that time they had been above $100/bbl for three and a half years. In fact the stability had become uncanny, so perhaps we should have seen the collapse coming. I would like to claim I had been prescient but sadly I was't.
Published 1120 days ago
I tipped BP (BP.) last year at 484p on the basis that the shares looked good value and without the foresight of knowing that the price of crude oil would fall so far and so fast, particularly given the recovery of the US economy and the eternal problems of the Middle East. Not a good call in hindsight.
Published 1129 days ago
As the famous Dame Shirley Bassey sang, “it's all just a little bit of history repeating”.
Published 1134 days ago
This article is difficult to write due to the unexpected nature of what happened at the recent OPEC meeting which has caused the oil price to tank by 40%. Should we panic?
Published 1136 days ago
Two weeks ago we had a lively debate on ShareProphets in response to OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its 166th Meeting. Articles and comments flew backwards and forwards, as we all played the wonderful guessing game of predicting world events. Chris Oil and Paul Curtis led the charge for the bulls, while I fought a rear guard action on behalf of the bears. So far, it looks like the market is on my side and there is another argument, which reinforces my bearish view. OPEC’s production targets are not rigidly enforced.
Published 1137 days ago
Hello Share Monkeys. I have three kinds of shares which are not doing at all well at the moment.
Published 1138 days ago
Some of you will think that I’ve taken leave of my senses to even be looking at anything in the oil sector at the moment.
Published 1145 days ago
Hello share grinders. If you have a bucket of oil shares- and I know a lot of us have - then these are rather dark days.
Published 1149 days ago
Our writers are divided. Ben Turney sees the recent OPEC meeting as disastrous for AIM listed oil shares (HERE). On the other hand Chris Oil (HERE) and Paul Curtis (HERE) argue that the bad news is more than discounted and are buyers of the sector. I started my career as an oil analyst and so what does Tom Winnifrith think?
Published 1149 days ago
I read with interest my friend Ben Turney’s post OPEC bear view on the oil price and stocks HERE. I disagree with him and my initial economic reasoning is that lower oil prices will see heavily indented US fracking firms wiped out so restoring a supply demand balance.
Published 1149 days ago
Oil and gas companies have suffered a three year bear market resulting from concern that US Shale Oil production growth would lead to oversupply. This has now come to pass, oil has plummeted from $115 a few months ago to $72. Oil companies have suffered a further sharp mark down and most trading at large discount to tangible assets.
Published 1150 days ago
It’s been coming for the last four months, but on Thursday OPEC finally declared open war on the US “Shale Revolution”. Yesterday, Chris Oil felt this might present a short term buying opportunity in AIM oil-stocks. I disagree. OPEC’s failure to cut production and the accompanying statement it released are clear signals of intent. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Companies, despite intense internal pressure from some of its members, has set itself on a course to crush the highly leveraged “fracking boom”. There is almost certainly going to be a lot of collateral damage, not least among AIM’s oil exploration and production sector, which is so reliant on external funding for survival.
Published 1151 days ago
It seems that OPEC is willing to keep production at the same level 30 million barrels per day as before. The oil price has duly tanked so is this bad news for all oil companies?
Published 1156 days ago
Oil prices have dropped dramatically in recent months and future direction looks set to be dictated by a meeting later this week. Brent crude has slipped below $80 per barrel, its lowest price in more than four years, and over the last four months the price has dropped approximately 30% from a peak of over $110.