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Gambling Neil Woodford doubles down on sliding Card Factory

Published 12 days ago

Last time Neil Woodford piled in for shares in Card Factory (CARD), back in October 2017 at c. 315p, the shares were hit by a profit warning and slid to 232p in January 2018. With 5.02% of the company, Neil Woodford was sitting on a loss (of other people’s money) of some £54 million and Tom Winnifrith was scathing. Well, the shares are now around 186.5p and the market (including Tom Winnifrith) is wrong, natch. We know this because Neil has been buying again, taking his holding to 10.06% last Friday. Heck: only 40% down – this is a winner, let’s buy some more!

Some facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt

Published 1286 days ago

After my Gulf Keystone (GKP) piece last week (HERE) drew the predictable furious response from Winnifrith (HERE), I’ve been looking into the company’s numbers in a bit more detail. There’s no denying that Gulf is teetering on the edge. However, it is not dead yet. Although it has little to no room for error, so long as the Kurds keep up their regular payments, it is possible that Gulf will be able to pay down its debt and refinance its balance sheet by April 2017. A broker note found its way into my inbox today, broadly supporting this view. It contained some interesting observations on Gulf’s debt position worth sharing.

Alba Minerals is worth a Horse Hill Punt

Published 1286 days ago

I have been, and continue to be, negative on the ‘Gatwick gusher’, otherwise known as the Horse Hill licence area. I just find it very hard to take any of the figures seriously when the companies involved talk about circa 11 billion barrels of oil in place (as per the most recent Schlumberger report), especially when viewed in the context of what they are ever likely to extract, or the sort of flows that you’d expect from shallow, tight limestones and shales.

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