Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Woodford and another £10m down the Proton Partners pan - a new valuation scandal
Published 14 days ago
This column is being compiled in North East Scotland, where for a fine early May bank holiday, ihave brought my winter coat, long underwear, and waterproof boots. Such is spring in Aberdeenshire.
Published 21 days ago
I have spoken about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) at the last two UK Investor Shows and written about it extensively as a once in a generation short opportunity. Given that it is probably the most covered and talked about stock in the world, I do not propose to continue writing about it for a while but do make the following observations after its Q1 release on Wednesday…
Published 38 days ago
The horrendous Q1 delivery numbers from Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) should have finally buried the growth story for all but the die hard believers and the focus now should move on to when it has to raise capital or file for bankruptcy…
Published 64 days ago
Bears often pigeonhole duff companies as frauds, fads or failures as if they belong in one or other of these distinct categories. The truth is that quite often a fad resorts to fraud when it realises that it is a failure. The most obvious example of this right now is Tesla. But there are others.
Published 76 days ago
I speculated previously about what might be the catalyst for the great Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) unravel and since then I believe we may have seen it...
Published 83 days ago
The resilience of the Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) share price in the weeks since its Q4 earnings release is nothing short of astonishing...
Published 96 days ago
The year to date has not provided a very promising backdrop for bears. I - like many others - am intensely irritated by Donald Trump’s obsession with the level of the US market and his clearly seeing it as a barometer for his own genius. When he claimed late last year that the fourth quarter sell off was a blip and a buying opportunity I waited with grim satisfaction for the rude awakening that was sure to follow...
Published 105 days ago
As an, uneventful by recent standards, Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) quarterly earnings call came to an end last night, Elon Musk came up with the following, as if it were an afterthought; “Um yeah…the um….Deepak is going to be retiring from Tesla”...
Published 109 days ago
In the old days ( i.e only three years ago) the BBC pension fund was invested, as it should have been in safe dividend plays like BP, Shell and BAT Industries. But that sort of portfolio played badly with the uber politically correct state funded broadcaster. So its all change. The new top 20 holdings as at 31 March 2018 are below.
Published 119 days ago
Make sure your kids do not listen to this podcast. Today I cover the latest bonkers idea from Malcolm Stacey, NetFlix (NFLX), tesla (TSLA), IQE (IQE), Dods (DODS), Flybe (FLYB) and Totally (TLY). I also explain why I am even more of a f*cking feminist than before, as of today.
Published 121 days ago
I explain the headline ion the podcast but it is all to do with Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) and UK Investor Show - book your free ticket for March 30 today HERE. I explain why Old man Stacey really has lost the plot on Brexit, he needs to look at what is happening in China and that will make him truly fearful. I look at Tesla (TSLA) and UK Oil & Gas (UKOG).
Published 137 days ago
Most material on twitter is unadulterated junk. But there is the odd gem. In the case of Tesla (TSLA) where the sell side analysts are all paid bulls, some of the best insight is on twitter. Like Lucian Miers, I regard this company as an accident, no an outright car crash, just waiting to happen. In that vein I bring you a most instructive series of tweets yesterday from @Polixines13 who knows his or her onions.
Published 143 days ago
My 2018 bear tip at the UK investor show was Tesla so apologies for that. It is ,however, rather looking like the ten year bull market may be coming to an end and stocks that are vulnerable are over leveraged names with refinancings coming due and crazy valuations. So I am going to stick my neck out and predict that 2019 is the year that Musk finally gets his comeuppance. The shares are now $317.
Published 176 days ago
I was amused to see some ShareProphets detractors on Twitter comment on Lucian Miers' correction to a detail on his Versarian (VRS) short. (Myself, I'm long with Versarian with around ten entire shares in my portfolio.)
Published 180 days ago
The recent market turmoil has seen some decent gains for those who have been predominantly bearish for a while in the face of an unprecedented bull market. Buying the dips, a wildly successful strategy for the last ten years, suddenly doesn’t feel so clever. My own view as to whether this time might be different was to look at the world’s favourite stock Apple (NASDAQ - AAPL) and see if it would lose its trillion-dollar market cap and then some. That to me would be a signal that the selloff has legs. That has now happened, and I believe that the long overdue reality check has started and is by no means over.
Published 206 days ago
In today's podcast I look at Purplebricks (PURP) and whether Neil Woodford is going nutso, Tesla (TSLA), RPS Group (RPS), Debenhams (DEB) and Feedback (FDBK)
Published 216 days ago
I note a report in the Times which tells us that US hedgie Greenlight Capital has been building a stake in BT (BT.A) with a view to pushing for the sale of Openreach. ShareProphets readers may also be interested to note that Greenlight and its head honcho Mr David Einhorn have been in the news recently as a bear of Tesla – so since it short a stock I don’t like and long one that I do obviously I take the view that this is a genius outfit!
Published 224 days ago
From military exercises to trade wars, the fury is intensifying. At the same time, global liquidity is compressing while rates are rising. Growing uncertainty, contracting liquidity & rising cost of capital will continue to place non-US assets (and in particular EMs) in the crosshairs.
Published 226 days ago
US fund manager David Einhorn is having a fairly dismal 2018 but his long term record is good and his biggest short, Tesla (TSLA) is paying off. In his latest missive to investors he compared pothead liar Elon Musk's fraud to Lehman Brothers. Can you really argue with a word he says?
Published 231 days ago
In today's podcast I discuss the latest news from Elon Musk and Tesla (TSLA) and why it is still a short, Theresa May trying to woo the wrong businessmen, gender pay gap bollocks in the Mail on Sunday and the theft Bulletin Board Morons approve of and ADVFN (AFN) cuts its own throat by not tackling, copyright theft.
Published 233 days ago
Having demanded we bring back this contest, once again, Juicin Drumroll failed to win last week but he came second and tried very hard as you can see HERE. So he is clearly desperate to win a semi naked photo of Britain's leading share blogger before lunchtime, Thirsty Paul Scott. So we will give him a sixth and final chance. Can anyone stop Juicin from winning this week? Okay here is the challenge for you all:
Published 233 days ago
I am extending the Premaitha (NIPT) session at the 16th October UK investor event in London to allow an extended Q&A as I want folks to really grill the company. I shall. You can register and please do so HERE but hurry as the event is already 70% booked out! In this podcast I look at what really happened yesterday and why it shows the City in such a dreadful light. I also look at Tesla (TSLA) and Elon Musk where things go from bad to worse and at new US data and UK house prices.
Published 239 days ago
In today's bearcast I look at Brexit and house prices, a celeb tipping Tesla (TSLA) and the nonsense MP Rachael Reeves talks about executive "fat cat" pay.
Published 240 days ago
In this podcast I look at the EU's shameful treatment of the wretched Theresa May, it insults her but also the UK. Do we really want to be part of such a club. I look at warrants handed out by Kefi Minerals (KEFI) as it appointed shamed and disgraced SP Angel as its joint broker and I discuss how proven liar Elon Musk will cook the Tesla (TSLA) Q3 books and how that will play out.
Published 244 days ago
In today's podcast I discuss the moral bankruptcy of Naz Shah MP and her comments on Non Invasive Pregnancy Tests, yes Premaitha (NIPT). I look at Tesla (TSLA) and the lessons from women's knickers, at Kefi (KEFI), Frontera (FRR) and the credibility test vs Yorkville, Derriston (DERR) and explain to some folks, I fear it is in house BBM Wildes, what a DCF model involves and why it is used, ref RedT (RED)
Published 246 days ago
Having demanded we bring back this contest, once again, Juicin Drumroll failed to win last week and so for the fourth time the semi naked photo of Britain's top share blogger before lunchtime, thirsty Paul Scott, went elsewhere. Come on Juicin this contest is for you please try harder....if you don't win this week we are dropping it.
Published 246 days ago
First I look at m ore evidence of naughtiness at Tesla (TSLA) as the pithead Elon Musk struggles to make good on his pledge to be Q3 cashflow positive. Then I discuss insider dealing. I think I was an insider but am not sure but could have made a killing on one stock over the past fortnight but I sense others have been less scrupulous than I have been. I discuss how this all happens and and why it is not a victimless crime and what should be done.
Published 254 days ago
In this podcast, my last from the Greek Hovel for some weeks, I discuss the delusions of David Lenigas, Tesla pot head Elon Musk and our own in-house Bulletin Board Moron Wildes in a tag team combo with the Archbishop of Canterbury. Who is most deluded? I have the answer and explain why.
Published 254 days ago
Still smarting from being accused of “confirmation bias” the other week on Tesla (ie wilfully ignoring the other side of the argument), I donned my rosy tinted specs while reading the Telit (TCM) interims.
Published 254 days ago
It seems that after just a month in situe the chief bean counter for the fraudsters who run Tesla (TSLA) has decided that he’d rather not earn $10 million and has quit. A great American company is in trouble and there is only one man who can save it. Today we launch a campaign to draft in Sam Antar as the new CFO of Tesla and if you are on twitter here’s how you can help.
Published 254 days ago
Having demanded we bring back this contest, once again, Juicin Drumroll failed to win last week and so for the third time the semi naked photo of Britain's top share blogger before lunchtime, thirsty Paul Scott, went elsewhere. Come on Juicin this contest is for you please try harder....
Published 256 days ago
I start with a few thoughts on just how wonderful it is up here at the Greek Hovel, truly it is peaceful and heavenly. Then a thank you for your kind emails and comments on poor Oakley. Then this podcast takes an in depth look at Telit (TCM), run by insider dealer Yosi Fait, after its interims yesterday and at Tesla (TSLA) run by nutso market abuser Elon Musk after his latest outburst.
Published 261 days ago
Having demanded we bring back this contest, once again Juicin Drumroll fails to win with his nomination. Come on Juicin, we are doing this for you, please try harder. This week's winner of a semi naked photo of Britain's top share blogger, before lunchtime, Thirsty Paul Scott, is Daniel Victor. You can see all the entries HERE but Daniel's winning entry, from twitter, is from a Tesla loon:
Published 261 days ago
It’s looking increasingly like Elon Musk’s go private “funding secured” tweet on the 7th August has backfired horribly as Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) now trades $40 below the prevailing price before he sent it. I was recently accused of confirmation bias on Tesla, i.e. of looking only at the bear case and ignoring the positives but it is difficult post-tweet to find any bullish case that holds water.
Published 266 days ago
Natch the news came not via an official statement but via a blog post at 11 PM, no-one is watching o'clock. Musk is a slam dunk for jail, the rest of the Tesla (US:TSLA) board may join him, and Tesla is finished, it could well be a zero. All is explained in my latest podcast.
Published 271 days ago
In today's podcast i look at tweets from Big Dave Lenigas which at every level would, in the US, see him heading for the cell next to the one being prepared for Tesla's Elon Musk. He just cannot substantiate what he is saying. I then look at Pantheon Resources (PANR), have a question about May 25 2019 and the Horse Hill Woodlarks walk, at Condor Gold (CNR), one of Jim Mellon's dogs, at Imaginatik (IMTK) at what price would I buy for Vin Murria? Finally there is a detailed look at Marechale Capital (MAC) a true AIM Casino POS. The goat milking video to which I refer is HERE and the latest Hovel photos are HERE
Published 271 days ago
A man who slammed Elon Musk of Tesla for making irresponsible statements that he could not validate via twitter has just made the most ramptastic claim in history about the Gatwick Gusher. Step forward David Lenigas. Without extensive drilling which has yet to take place Big Dave Lenigas cannot justify this statement in any way shape or form. But apparently the Russians are quaking that little old UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) is going to transform the metrics of global oil supply... whatever...
Published 274 days ago
What I am looking from you this week, dear reader, are blurbs that I can use to promote subscriptions to ShareProphets. If you have found ShareProphets valuable, would you be so kind as to write a one-liner in the comments that I can put on the subscription page to knock over those on the fence?
Published 275 days ago
I don’t propose to dwell on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) today as it is in danger of becoming an obsession to me, as to many others. Suffice it to say that what was shaping up to be a pretty disastrous trade is looking a lot less serious and it is now clear that Musk’s claim to have funding secured for a take-private deal at $420 per share was wide of the mark to put it mildly.
Published 275 days ago
In today's bearcast I explain a few flaws in today's article HERE by Malcolm Stacey on Brexit and shares. And why, for once, Donald Trump calls it wrong when he says companies should report less often. Then I take on Mr James Bowden of Stockemndation after his latest article HERE -why brokers and newspapers are to be ignored when they say BUY. Finally Tesla and Elon Musk, I look at the latest developments at Musk's clear mental breakdown (I should know about it, but it was six years ago for me) and at why Tesla could be a zero and far faster than folks think.
Published 276 days ago
As we all know, David Lenigas is the high priest of ethical tweeting, never tweeting anything that could not be fully verified and as such he is the ideal man to call out Elon Musk for his sins. Next up, the Pope tells the BBC to get its house in order over sex abuse scandals...
Published 279 days ago
Last week was not ideal for those short of Tesla (US - TSLA) after that tweet announcing the potential biggest take private deal in history. Nothing now surprises me with this company and, also having been a victim of the Autonomy-Hewlett Packard debacle seven years ago, I am wary to dismiss the possibility of a deal out of hand. But as the week closed without any further details emerging, it is looking increasingly likely to me that the funding might not be “secured” as claimed.
Published 279 days ago
China has the world’s most overleveraged, fragile financial system. In 2008, China’s total debt-to-GDP was 140%. It is now roughly 300%, while GDP is slowing. The economy is held together by capital controls. If those fail, the whole system fails. The capital flight in 2015/16 cost the government $1trln in reserves, and that was with ultra-dove Yellen in charge. Imagine what would have happened with Volcker at the helm.
Published 280 days ago
In this podcast I look back of the events of the past week at Tesla, what it says about the state of the stockmarket and the wider market cycle and specifically about the state of mind of Elon Musk. is he certifiable or a genius holding a hand of Aces we do not know about? Or just so desperate he will do anything to keep the show on the road for a little bit longer?
Published 281 days ago
Some house business: bulletin board moron of the week has returned. We ceased this long-running column earlier in the year when we had successfully cleared all bulletiin boards of all morons. But they have oozed back and it is time for you to take out the trash.
Published 282 days ago
In today's podcast I recount last night's suffering HERE but have a revenge on a millennial daughter involving Paddy Leigh Fermor planned for tonight. I look at House of Fraser going into administration, assisted by the Government, and what it means. I discuss the latest Tesla news, the issue of all sorts of market abuse and why nothing happens, Oilex (OEX) and ProPhotonix (PPIX) which really should not be on AIM at all.
Published 284 days ago
In this podcast I cover Tesla (TSLA) which is curiouser and curiouser, Optibiotix (OPTI) and the parasitic vampire that is ADVFN (AFN), Great Western Mining (GWMO), Toople (TOOP), Angus Energy (ANGS), the Brockham Well, UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) anmd its latest despicable smear c/o yellow journalists at The Daily Mail and cheered on by the vermin paid share rampers of LSE Share Talk
Published 285 days ago
Yesterday started badly for the bears when it emerged c/o the FT that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund had built up a stake of 3-5% in Tesla (US:TSLA) via market purchases. It then got worse as CEO Elon Musk tweeted, yes tweeted rather than announcing via a formal announcement, that he was considering taking the company private at $420 a share and had funding.
Published 289 days ago
On Thursday, shares in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose to levels not seen since June, as the market reacted favourably to its Q2 numbers and the subsequent earnings call.
Published 296 days ago
Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) reports Q2 numbers after the close on Wednesday and after Elon Musk’s bizarre performance on the Q1 earnings call, this one is likely to be box office. Far from learning from that meltdown back in May, his behaviour since has been even more erratic - with his spiteful reference on twitter to the British diver involved in the Thai cave rescue as “that pedo guy” and, more recently, his contacting the boss of a vociferous critic on twitter “Montana Skeptic”, with threats of legal action.
Published 318 days ago
Ask a high quality fraudster like Sam Antar how to deal with critics in the media or on wall Street? It is easy. Do not give them the oxygen of publicity, ignore them and focus on what really matters: committing fraud. But Elon Musk of Tesla has a problem. To keep his cash guzzling baby Tesla going he needs to raise fresh debt and.or equity so tumbling bond and share prices matter and you can tell Elon is panicking. His latest outbursts show that. as you can see below.
Published 319 days ago
The great news is that our Woodlarks walk has now reached 57% of its sponsorship target. I'll do another training walk this afternoon with Joshua so as we do a quick march how about you check out the latest incredibly generous donations here and chip in yourself? In a long bearcast I cover Tesla (US:TSLA), Fishing Republic (FISH), Kibo (KIBO), UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) as lyin' Steve does the right thing - Frontera (FRR), Conroy Gold (CGNR), TrakM8 (TRAK), Avanti (AVN) and Cabot Energy (CAB). PS Wasn't the football incredibly exciting and a source of such joy? I view myself as British, not English but go on Eng-er-land!
Published 327 days ago
Two months ago at the UK Investor Show, I tipped Tesla (US - TSLA) as my top short for 2018 at $300. The shares are now 11% higher than that having touched $370 in the interim, so my timing has not been great and for that I apologise. Nevertheless, I still believe that, despite it being a crowded trade, and despite the fact that Elon Musk still enjoys unquestioning support from his cult followers, the company faces existential threats which could overwhelm it in short order and it is therefore the right thing to maintain a short position.
Published 330 days ago
On my 24 mile walk with Lucian - a bit of a disaster as the last five miles were unplanned and very painful as described here - we discussed Tesla, Tern and the stockmarket bubble. I ponder that and then discuss a total Blow Job splash for Neil Woodford in the Mail on Sunday, a disgraceful day for "journalism."
Published 338 days ago
I record with Argentina and Iceland in the background on mute. Hell's teeth who on earth could support the fecking Argies? I explain the sheer torture Brokerman Dan Levi has in store for me in six weeks time and give him a reason to add to that. Andalas (ADL) is utterly worthless crap and his commentary on Friday and the statement that resulted utterly stinks. Anyhow consider how he will torture me as we walk 32 miles, feel sympathy and SPONSOR ME HERE. Then I look at Paul Scott winning an award for PR and at events at Theranos and Tesla.
Published 349 days ago
In these benign markets, the word “catalyst” is heard frequently among bears. They may agree that they have found a real turkey, but fret about what specific event will engender a sudden loss of confidence and resultant share price fall. I suggested recently that a cash crunch is the most reliable catalyst for a correction, but it’s not that straightforward as demonstrated by two of my favourite shorts - Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) and Telit (TCM), both of which have traded sideways for a while.
Published 376 days ago
As I write, Tesla (US - TSLA) at $305 has regained the level at which it was trading on Thursday when Musk lost the plot on the Q1 conference call, causing the price to drop 7% in minutes.
Published 377 days ago
Whilst a number of big investors see warning signs ahead for markets but are holding their positions, Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris is taking action: He’s put half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold. He said in an interview last Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash. “In the end you have China and they will not stop consuming. And people also tend to go to gold during crises and we are full of crises right now,” Sawiris said at his office in Cairo overlooking the Nile. “Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help.”
Published 379 days ago
And the next video is the bears with myself, the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl, the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers and a cameo by Nigel Somerville on Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO). On the agenda Telit (TCM), Tesla (TSLA), Mitie (MTO), IQE (IQE), RM2 (RM2),Avanti Communications (AVN), AIQ (AIQ) and a good stack more.
Published 380 days ago
One is, IMHO, a fraud and the other just has a looming cash crisis. Both faced real criticism last week - I discussed how they played and what happens next.
Published 383 days ago
The lawyer's letter? I must keen you in suspense as I discuss with my lawyers how to respond so you can still vote on who sent it HERE. I also chatted today to Lucian about three slam dunk shorts: Telit (TCM), Purplebricks (PURP) and Tesla (TSLA). Or are they slam dunks? Might disbelief be suspended forever.? I then look at Photonstar Led (PSL) at Conroy Gold (CGNR) and at how AIM gives capitalism a bad name by not letting bust companies such as Andalas (ADL) fail.
Published 393 days ago
The behaviour of Elon Musk, cult leader of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), is becoming more and more eccentric and, in my view, unwise.
Published 412 days ago
Shareholders saw fit to reward Musk the largest CEO pay package in the history of the world. This is precisely the type of behaviour that is only seen during periods of extreme irrationality when financial markets are at their peak… and poised for a serious correction.
Published 415 days ago
In January I wrote that Tesla’s luck might be running out and suggested selling at $310 with a sub $100 target by Christmas. Having traded higher for most of February the shares closed last night at $254 where it is still massively overvalued at $43 billion.
Published 452 days ago
Hat tip to Andrew Monk of VSA for spotting this paper from Hult Business School. It does give you food for thought. Certainly why would anyone invested in a heavily indebted business with bigg exposure to the carrying value of cars as we known them ( Northgate or BCA Marketplace for example) or the AA? Maybe Neil Woodford should read this and ponder before he buys any more shares in the AA or BCA?
Published 498 days ago
Shares in MySquar (MYSQ) recently more than doubled valuing the disreputable Myanmar (Burma) play at around £22 million, a ludicrous sum for a transparent scam that stands out even when measured by the exalted standards of AIM.
Published 565 days ago
I wrote a while back that Tesla (TSLA - NASDAQ) would be a cracking short if and when its shares break down below $300. They didn’t quite make it, rebounding sharply from $308. But the rally looks like it has run out of steam and they are heading south again.
Published 626 days ago
Telit (TCM) shares zoomed by 30% yesterday back to 160p, almost the level before it emerged here that its founder and CEO Oozi Cats was in fact Uzi Katz, the Boston real estate fraudster and fugitive from US justice. The latest ramp is news that it might generate some sales from AT&T. Whoopie do.
Published 646 days ago
I promised last week to go in to the numerous inconsistencies in the numbers presented by Purplebricks (PURP) but that is going to have to wait as this week’s story has got to be Telit (TCM).
Published 681 days ago
I am not a great fan of shorting crazy valuations on the basis that they tend to get crazier. For this reason, I have not been short the likes of Fevertree (FEVR) or Purplebricks (PURP), as calling the top is well-nigh impossible.
Published 714 days ago
Over recent years Warren Buffett has been hoarding dollars at a colossal rate. This was first really noticeable in August 2014. At that time, Buffett was holding about $50 billion and he was already 83 years old. Even then his hoard of dollars was already the largest of his entire career. But over the last three years this sum has swelled to $100 billion in size.
Published 831 days ago
Private investors seem to be going mad for shares in anything involving lithium at the moment, in the same way as they were for oil and gas a few years back.
Published 1158 days ago
Gianni Kovacevic is driving a Tesla across the US and promoting his book, ‘My Electrician Drives a Porche’. Contrary to popular belief the car only takes 30 minutes to charge, on long term trips the Tesla takes no more time than a conventional car. The age of the electric car is finally upon us.
Published 1239 days ago
Firstly, as it is the season of goodwill and to celebrate the fact I managed to get to December 23rd without buying anyone a present, Bacanora Minerals is my stock to revisit. This is partly a tribute to the late, great David Lenigas, formerly the King of Aim. His abdication from the throne last week
Published 1340 days ago
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at [email protected] - Today I look at shares in Formation Group (FRM), Kennedy Ventures (KENV), Rare Earth Minerals (REM) setting share price targets for all three stocks.
Published 1451 days ago
In an email he recently sent Andrew Monk wrote: Now I know the idea of a Junior Mining company isn't most people’s cup of tea right now......but you need to think about this and see them. I'm telling you (and have been for a while) the battery world is coming and this is as big a change as the Internet and mobile phones and look at the returns that were made there.