Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at [email protected] - Today I look at Globo, Gulf Keystone, Tristel
Zak Mir vs Tom Winnifrith the debate + free booze and pizza Matt Lofgran of Nostra Terra and Kerim Sener of Ariana book your seat for Monday at 6 PM at Free Speech & Liberty 91-95 Clerkenwell Road London by emailing your name and address to [email protected]
Globo (GBO): Above 50 Day Line Could Still Lead To 65p
Perhaps the most diplomatic thing to say about the price action of Globo shares over the recent past is the way that they have managed to climb a wall of worry quite successfully. This is despite the bears apparently trying to knock the company on a fundamental basis in quite a persistent basis. But at least the recovery over recent months has been a significant one. This is been the case at least since the one day December probe below 35p since which we have seen a reasonable price progression to the upside.
It has largely taken the form of a three steps up / two steps down recovery, with the 50 day moving average at 53p generally playing quite a significant part in the rebound. This is likely to continue given the way that the feature at 53p is the most obvious short term support of the shares. The view at the moment is that particularly while there is no end of day close back below the 50 day line we should see further upside. All of this should occur within the parameters of a rising trend channel from September last year with its resistance and projection heading as high as 65p. The timeframe on the 2014 price channel top target is seen as being the next 4 to 6 weeks.
Gulf Keystone (GKP): Drift Towards 20p Continues
Perhaps most interesting aspect of Gulf Keystone is the way that even though the shares have been in an extended bear run for the best part of two years, this negativity has been periodically interspersed by credible intermediate stock price rise of decent percentage amounts. Unfortunately, the overall trend here there remains distinctly negative, a point underlined by the way that all the near-term moving averages on the daily chart are currently falling, with the 50 day line now at 37p particularly in play.
This is because the 50 day line is at the top of a falling trend channel from October and marks the major resistance zone for Gulf Keystone. Indeed at this stage only a weekly close through 37p would to even begin to delay the downside scenario here. Just how low the stock could go over the near-term is suggested by the floor of last year's trend channel currently with its support line projection pointing to 20p. This is the target over the next 1 to 2 months, even if the shares manage to rehabilitate themselves in a meaningful way subsequently.
Tristel (TSTL): Bull Flag Breakout Towards 140p
Gaps, golden crosses and bull flags tend to go together in the most bullish situations, and this is what we are currently sitting at a chart of Tristel. The gap in question stems from a near vertical spike in the shares in May above the 200 day moving average currently at 79p. Indeed the momentum and force behind last month’s gap to the upside was enough to deliver a golden cross buy signal for early June, an event which is clearly delivering positive momentum to this technical situation.
The expectation over the next 1 to 2 months would be for fresh attempts to break to the upside and a notional target as high as 135p at the top of last summer’s trend channel. This is especially the case considering that the breakout for the shares in recent weeks comes in the wake of a particularly extended sideways consolidation for the shares over most of the past year, all within a 70p – 85p range. The end of day close stop loss is the 20 day moving average now 93p, a feature which can run behind bull positions as a dynamic risk management feature on end of day close basis.
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