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Gulf Keystone: tipped by discredited paid for rampster Malcolm Graham Wood, ignore him: this could be a zero

By Tom Winnifrith | Tuesday 24 November 2015


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


Malcolm Graham Wood is paid large sums of money by oil companies to write reports on their shares which - for obvious reasons - don't tend to be bearish. He does not declare if a company whose shares he is tipping has paid him to do so or not. As such his research should ALL be ignored. Commentators must be transparent in why they are writing. If they are not they are discredited and should be drummed out of town. As such I ignore this pompous lard-bucket.

I see that Mr Graham Wood is on the lamentable share ramping-fest that is iii today tipping Gulf Keystone (GKP). I do not know if he is on Gulf’s payroll or not. If he is he should say so. If he is not then I imagine he is touting for business. The hooker does not tell the John that he is ugly as she sidles up looking to turn a trick.

We still do not know if the Kurds have made a November net $12 million payment to Gulf. October and September payments arrived on the 15th of the month. If the Kurds have not ponied up that is very grim news indeed for Gulf and the shares will collapse.

If the Kurds have ponied up then Gulf won’t default on its bonds for another ten or eleven months. But default it will and it certainly cannot repay. That is why the bonds now yield 17% and 21% respectively. And that tells you that the equity is probably worthless. This could well be a zero. The shares should be sub 10p.

I explain why this is a slam dunk sell with the hard maths HERE


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More on GKP


Comments

3 comments

  1. Tom
    The flaw in your case is that when oil bounces, GKP assets will increase in value allowing farm out or sale on more attractive term. A higher oil price will allow KRG to make regular payments and hopefully back payments. This will re-rate corporate interest in both Genel and GKP.

    If you think oil will still be in bear market by 2017 then yes, equity looks toasts


  2. Drunken Sailor

    Paul,

    The flaw in your argument is there is no imminent sign of a bounce in the oil price and the sands of time for GKP are running low (Iron Maiden lyric from decades ago).

    The Oil shares to invest in for a bounce in the oil price in the longer term are BP and Shell, they are struggling with the low oil price, but because they have significant interests outside of oil production they can still afford to pay dividends etc.

    The argument that had the oil price not crashed GKP would have been ok is probably valid, but if your aunty had balls she would be your uncle. Live in the real world and not the imaginary world and you will make better investing decisions.

  3. Shareholders in GKP should go and do some better research into the attitudes and actions of the Kurds over the decades particularly on the streets of Turkey, I’m left wondering why you should be selling them any oil in the first place, there is nothing benign about it.


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