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Avanti share price spike: the company speaks and says nothing at all

By Tom Winnifrith, The Sheriff of AIM | Friday 5 August 2016

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I have commented on Avanti Communications (AVN) twice in two days on the bearcasts HERE and HERE. Today with the shares zooming ahead to a peak of 50p (they are now 44p) the company commented but said nothing at all. Ronan Keating would be proud.

Uber Bombast David Williams stated:

Avanti Communications Group plc ("Avanti" or the "Company" or the "Group") a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa notes the recent rise in the Company's share price. As announced on 11 July 2016, the Board is conducting a strategic review to consider all financial and strategic options. This is ongoing and an update will be provided in due course.


Right. Hands up if that makes the situation clearer. Uh no hands? The shares spiked on reports in the FT that Inmarsat (ISAT) had tabled a 140p per share offer but had had this rejected. Today the FT rather backtracked on that. What follows is a trabscript of an FT Alphaville chat between Paul Murphy ( great journalist,m decent human being) and his colleague Bryce Elder (total fucktard, likes printing lies, supported the blinx fraud with lies by smearing the heroic fraud busters).

PM So on Avanti quickly
PM Cos it is being discussed
PM Yes, we ran that piece at circa 11am yesterday — price set off, as it was bound to
PM But then it got alighted upon around lunchtime by the bullein t boarders, who immediately mis-read it
PM Decided Avanti had rejected a 150p bid
PM Which we did NOT say at all.
PM Inmarsat tabled a indicative offer for the company and then, when the news of talks leaked, pulled out of discussions
PM Why it has set off afresh for the moon this morning, i have no idea
Avanti Communications Group PLC (AVN:LSE): Last: 45.00, up 12.5 (+38.46%), High: 53.75, Low: 32.25, Volume: 2.59m
PM But look guys, be careful
PM We don’t know what Inmarsat’s plan was, talking an offer so far above the market price?
PM Was it just trying to get in the data room?
PM Alternatively, are there competing offers well above the then market price? We just don’t know
PM All i would say is be mindful of MAST — the Boston crew that hold a load of the Avanti bonds and also 10 epr cent of the equity
PM They will be pivotal
PM My guess: unless there’s a bidder for the full busienss, they will continue to provide working capital for the foeseeable. Although obv Avanti need proper financing for the longer term.
BE Note there’s a line in the Telegraph about two other parties expressing an interest, post Inmarsat walking. Though I can’t find it because the Telegraph’s website no longer has a search function.
BE No idea about that line. But as you say, there’s a data room open so it’d be bizarre if Avanti’s peers and competitors didn’t take the opportunity to have a poke around.
PM Well the line comes from me.
PM It was at the bottom of the original story


That looks like a clear backtrack from Yesterday when Mr Murphy wrote:

Yes, really. On Wednesday last week Patrick McDougal, Inmarsat’s head of business development and strategy, got in touch with Dominic Lester, joint head of investment banking in Europe at Jefferies & Co, Avanti’s advisory.

He wanted to table a second takeover offer for Avanti from Inmarsat, after a previous low-ball bid for the rival satellite operator had been rejected. Inmarsat was ready to pay at least 140p a share in cash for Avanti, subject to due diligence. At the time, shares in Avanti were trading just below 30p.


Whatever... the FT can tweak its story whenever it wants because with folks like Bryce "lets print lies to smear the critics of blinkx" Elder and snot gobbler Dan McCrum on board it is always the world's greatest paper and is never wrong about anything.

At 44p Avanti is capitalised at c£220 million. Its bonds trade at a discount to par and the replacement cost of its satellites is a steep discount to the bonds so the equity should be worth zero.

But as I discuss in the bearcast today HERE there is always a S&G scenario. Common sense says the shares will crash from here as no bid emerges after folks have had their poke in the Avanti data room. But maybe the poltroon who runs S&G has a cousin in the satellite business?

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