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Sunday Times on Proton Beam Therapy - the numbers for Advanced Oncotherapy do not add up

By Tom Winnifrith | Sunday 6 November 2016

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The Sunday Times today has splashed on the roll out of proton beam therapy centres in the UK. It states there are plans to build SIX centres in the UK...but....

Three of these are being built by Sir Chris Evans (biotech's Welsh Wizard) backed by Neil Woodford via a firm called Proton Partners International. We know that Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) will one day build one at Harley Street. And the article says that two of the six will be built by the grateful taxpayer.

As I have flagged up before proton therapy is not a mass market so the UK really should not need more than six units. Yet we have been told by Advanced that it signed Letters of Intent some years ago with other firms to supply SIX Proton machines for centres across the UK. The company had raised money recently without explaining where it stands with those LOI's.

As for eventual demand, I flag up a sentence from today's Times "There is still no conclusive evidence that proton therapy is a significantly better option that traditional radiation"

The paper carries the tale of a poor six year old lad Raj Rana who had to fly to the US for treatment on his brain tumour with proton therapy. 18 months after getting the all clear the tumour is back and he is now back using traditional chemotherapy. He has my best wishes but it has been on the back of sob stories about kids such as Raj and talk of miracle cures that Advanced shares have been ramped to the heavens.

In light of this article Advanced really should come clean on its LOIs. The questions are mounting. I suggest you follow the (now ex) senior NED Baron Evans of Watford and sell all your shares.

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