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Barratt Developments – a monumental bet on house prices defying historic norms – sell

By Tom Winnifrith | Friday 22 February 2013


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


FTSE 250 listed, Housebuilder Barratt Developments (BDEV) issued an upbeat trading statement on 16th January covering the six months to 31st December and there is little doubt that the results out next week will contain no nasty surprises. The company has a forward order book equivalent to around four months of sales and as such there is no reason to expect any great change in trading in the second half. Yet with house prices now on a multiple of average wages seem only once before in living memory ( 2007) and with the normal catalyst for a house price correction ( a rise in interest rates) surely only a matter of time the current rating looks untenable.

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