By Tom Winnifrith | Wednesday 3 May 2017
Dreary remoaners such as Pizza Hardman Darren Atwater and the rest of the liberal media elite keep on saying that Brexit has cased the pound to tank against the Euro. After another taunt from Darren yesterday I bring you the chart below, just to help him move out of the post fact era.
As you can see Sterling tanked sharply in the six months ahead of the Brexit vote on glorious Independence Day last year - June 23rd. Since the polls suggested that folks like Atwater, Gina Miller & Tony Blair were going to be on the winning side that cannot be down to Brexit.
The reason was that Britain's most useless chancellor ever ( before the current one), Mr George Osborne had warned us in 2015 that base rates would have to rise. But they did not. In fact the next move was down. It was that failure to meet expectations on base rates that saw an overvalued sterling slide. I say overvalued in that at in 2015 Sterling was at eight year highs against the Euro and that was driven by the expectation of tighter monetary policy and fiscal prudence - neither of which were delivered.
The downward trend in Sterling continued post June 23. It is utterly implausible to argue - as Atwater/Miller/Blair do - that sterling slumped pre June 23 for one reason ( which was nothing to do with Brexit since we all feared that Britain would vote as the banksters, luvvies and media told us to do) but that as at June 24 it started falling just because of Brexit.
But what yiou will notice is that Sterling reached a Nadir in late 206 but has since bounced back and is now at the levels seen on June 23. The dramatic 18 month sell off ( 85% of which happened pre the Brexit vote) has now been reversed. And that is because the economic data coning out of the Eurozone remains dire whilst the UK economy continues to grow. So there will be more funny money policies, native interest rates etc in Euroland while, in relative terms only, Britain will be a model of fiscal and monetary prudence. In the currency race to the bottom, the Euro will win.
Whether a stronger pound is a good or bad thing is a matter of opinion. As I prepare for major expenditure in Euroland ( Greece) I welcome it. Exporters will not. But one thing is clear: those like the BBC who argue that Brexit has caused the pound to crash are talking cock.
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