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Global disorder is mounting in intensity and dimension

By David Scott | Monday 19 February 2018


Global bond markets have declared that inflation is now on the rise but the data does not yet point firmly to this conclusion, if anything it is suggesting that the low trend in place since the financial crisis may linger for a while longer yet. But what the U.S. bond market is reacting to is a different kind of worry, notably trillions of dollars worth of extra debt supply to digest from a U.S. administration that has cast aside fiscal restraint with tax cuts and new spending, just as Quantitative Tapering kicks in as the Federal Reserve sells debt back to the markets at an ever increasing pace. For all the optimism about a global economic upturn in which an exceptionally long list of countries are expanding at the same time, the two biggest central banks are due to be operating completely opposing policies this year.

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