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I wasted a fair amount of time yesterday attempting to set myself up for my first ever forex speculation. This was to be short the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar St (at 7.82), to which it has been pegged for 36 years in the 7.75 to 7.85 range. The reasoning, as espoused by US hedgie Kyle Bass on an excellent podcast, was that the peg is unsustainable and sooner rather than later will break to the downside meaning that the risk/reward is extremely compelling in that the downside is limited to the strong end of the peg (7.75) and the upside is huge when the peg breaks. Better still…
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