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Flybe still a recovery play but not such a good one

By Chris Oil | Saturday 22 November 2014


Disclosure: I own shares in one or more of the stocks mentioned. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


I tipped Flybe (FLYB) at 116.5p here a couple of months ago HERE. The shares are now 100p following interims. I admit it, it was a bad share tip as the results were – as Tom Winnifrith pointedly noted on his BearCast on results day – less than impressive. I apologise to one and all for this tip.

The numbers themselves were not quite what I had hoped for and there were other shocks, notably the write downs including that of the JV in Finland which is history.

One can make excuses by saying that all airline stocks are a bit unloved partly down to Ebola even though domestic UK flights are not affected. But the reality is that despite the benefits of a falling oil price on costs Flybe has not delivered. 

Thus, upon reflection, it seems to me that there is now no way that Flybe can make £20 million profit in 2015 and the £50 million forecast for 2016 looks a struggle too. 

Is the bad news in the price now? I think it is and thus retain a holding but can I argue that it is a recovery buy? No. There are better opportunities out there and so I have sold some of my shares to switch into better bets. I suggest you do the same. 

Full year results are the next major event although investor’s day is this month which should prove interesting. 

Until the next time more ramblings from the castle can be seen @chrisoil

 

 

 

 

 


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Comments

9 comments

  1. Hi Chris,

    I thought the headline figures with FlyBe were unimpressive, but once you dig into the detail, it gets a lot better. The Finnish JV was a millstone, so I’m happy that has been ditched.

    Also, the underlying UK profits were actually up, but an issue with surplus aircraft was a big extra cost (about £14m for the 6M). Once those planes are disposed of, there should be a nice clean UK operation.

    I’m happy to wait another 12 months for the various turnaround initiatives to come together. The new London City Airport routes could be great in my view – obvious attraction is an airport only 20m by DLR from Bank tube station, so very convenient for City-based workers to nip to places like Edinburgh, etc, and back.

    Fuel cost coming down nicely too, helping all airlines.

    Regards, Paul.

  2. Chris you have a very bad reputation on advfn for what can be best explained as an overly ramptastic original tip a few weeks. You seem to gloss over the fact that underlying profits were up 17% if you strip out the exceptionals. Moving forward as per Saads presentation on results day they have one more legacy issue to be resolved the 9 grounded planes, I don’t really see how if they resolve this issue they can’t make 30 million profit plus in 2016. There is also a letter of intent signed with a major European carrier for white label flying which will more than replace the Finnish revenue,

    I hope you made good money with your 500p tip, no one in their right expected it to get there, but I think that’s your game isn’t it.

    Good luck for the future, but with your poor analysis of Flybe I worry

  3. Is Chris Oil the worst tipster on this site? You decide. I have taken a look back at his record over the past three months to see where his tips are now.

    1. Buy French Connection @ 65p with a target price of 120p! (500p in 3 years). Tipped 71 days ago. Price now 51.88p
    2. Buy Salamander @ 113p with a target price of 250p! Tipped 119 days ago. Price now 91.25p
    3. Buy Rockhopper @ 87p with a target price of 220p! Tipped 98 days ago. Price now 82.75p
    4. Buy Lancashire Holdings @ 669p with a target of 900p. Tipped 22 days ago. Price now 620p
    5. Buy Landsdown oil @ 11.75p with a target of 75p! Tipped 49 days ago. Price now 11.50p
    6. Buy Providence Resources @ 131p with a target of 300p! Tipped 50 days ago. Price now 112p
    7. Buy Lek Oil @ 59.75p with a target of 150p! Tipped 81 days ago. Price now 37.25p
    8. Buy NTOG @ .34p with a target of .60p. Tipped 77 days ago. Price now .28p.

    And of course Flybe, but no need to cover that one! Looking at his record, If you shorted these Buys, you would be up on every single one! On most, you would be quids in!

    The only share I could find that was almost break even was Landsdown Oil, the rest were way off. The other thing I’ve noted is Chris has a somewhat enthusiastic target price for his shares! Ramping would be an understatement!

    So my conclusion is, use Chris Oils buy recommendations as a stonking sell signal, or short. Based on his record on shareprophets over the last three months, you will make your fortune!

  4. Makes you wonder with such a terrible recent record how he has any credibility at all. His Flybe analysis is woefully amateur


  5. J P Spaghetti

    Paul and Ryan – not really my place, I know, but that seems more than a little harsh! The shares you quote are on average down less than 15% since they were tipped, the market’s been foul an it’s still early days. OK – at one extreme Lek must hurt, but, at the other, the fall in Landsdown constitutes barely 2%.

  6. J P SPAGHETTI

    My piece, as quoted in the first line, was ‘Is Chris Oil the Worst tipster on this site?’ I just produced the evidence over the last couple of months. If you disagree, I would be interested to hear who you think is worse?

    In response to your comments, It’s not just the amount the tips are down, although I would check your maths as 15% is a little generous! It is also how much Chris ramps his target prices. Look back through the archives and check for yourself. Most of his predictions are +100%. Additionally, I did try, but could not find a tip that was positive! Now we all make bad calls I know, but every share? And in reference to your quote ‘the market has been foul’, the stock market has recovered most of it’s losses over the past month, so I’m not sure what’s your point there?

    Oh, and the worst one of all, (just outside of the time frame for this review), Hurricane energy, down almost 45% on tip.

    Will you be following his next suggestion and putting your money in, or shorting? I know what I will be doing.

    Good luck.

  7. Guy’s!

    Must spring to Chris’s defence regarding Lekoil and Hurricane Energy. Both tips I followed!

    Be fair..who foresaw the recent decline in crude prices three months ago? I certainty didn’t, nor would I suggest did most professional analysts!

    At the time Chris made his recommendations, fundamentals and prospects for both companies were excellent.

    I’m still happy to hold both stocks long term and will average down, as applicable.


  8. J P Spaghetti

    Paul – just checked and the average fall based on the examples you gave is 15.45%, so although I was indeed wrong to say less than 15% this was just due to rounding errors throughout the calculation! Also, although the wider market has picked up since mid-October, the mining and oil and gas sectors in particular have been at least fairly foul over the last few months. I take your general point, though, in the wider context you now mention (no offence Chris!).

    Anyway, I won’t be following anyone’s advice just yet but will probably be tempted again once the new year is well and truly here. I had a small punt on Bushveld at 4.3p (closed just below 3p today) not too long ago following pretty persuasive tipping not just here but elsewhere and after actually doing a bit of my own research (just a little bit), and if that that doesn’t come good before too long I may well consider joining the Foreign Legion. Ah, I can see it now – the manly romance of forging a brotherly bond beneath a blistering and unforgiving sun. It would incentivise me to brush up on my French at least.

    Good luck to you too.

  9. ALCIRA16247

    Again the question was, is Chris the worst tipster on this site? If not who is?

    Re the oil slump, America for so long has been a net importer of oil, until the shale revolution, not any more. Supply and demand. The red flags have been waiving for a while now.

    I still think he is the worst tipster on this site!


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