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Tom Winnifrith’s sixth share tip of the year 2015, buy Premaitha at a 19.5p offer

By Tom Winnifrith | Thursday 1 January 2015


Disclosure: Financial Investigative Media Limited, which is not owned by Tom Winnifrith but by a trust for his dependants, owns shares in companies mentioned in this article. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


One of the reasons that capitalism works while the alternative is doomed to fail is that failing companies can reinvent themselves.

For years AIM casino listed Vialogy misled investors raising money time and time again to support the obscene salaries of an underperforming and overpaid board. I like to think that I played a part in exposing the poltroons responsible and in forcing change. The old guard are out and shareholders are now starting to get back their losses as a new management team takes the ship, now renamed Premaitha (NIPT) forward.

This is now a biotech stock. I declare upfront that RMPC has a material holding. To get an idea of what the company – which still has c£5 million net cash – is up to watch its CEO present HERE

The company is working on commercialising a non-invasive test to see whether unborn babies have Down’s Syndrome – IONA. It is more accurate than existing tests and non-invasive so safer. Expect this company to get Kite mark approval within six weeks and that will be the precursor to the first sales agreements and thus a mammoth re-rating of the stock.

The value of the market Premaitha wishes to tap into is estimated at $4.2 billion.  At a 19.5p offer the market cap is £36 million. Go figure as they say…

I expect Kite mark approval and the first commercial agreements to be driving this stock well past my 30p to sell initial target well before Easter and thus it is my sixth share tip of the year.

To read Tom Winnifrith’s first 2015 share tip of the year ( a buy) click HERE

To read Tom Winnifrith’s second 2015 share tip of the year ( a sell) click HERE

To read Tom Winnifrith’s third 2015 share tip of the year ( a sell) click HERE

To read Tom Winnifrith’s fourth 2015 share tip of the year ( a buy) click HERE

To read Tom Winnifrith's fifth 2015 share tip of the year ( a sell) click HERE

To read Tom Winnifrith’s 10 macro calls for 2015 click HERE


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More on NIPT


Comments

8 comments


  1. Maurice Waldman

    I am a scientist. And have bought a substantial amount into this company on the grounds of its board, evidence and ethos.
    I would expect 50p SP for starters. In my opinion. This is based on the price where the board gets paid.


  2. handybrownone

    Tom – nice tip thanks. I am a scientist too and a patent attorney – all of these oil stocks I am out to sea with but these sort of companies I like. BTW Optio tip was also good but sol out a little too soon. Will watch for any weakness and re-enter. The CE marking process i very quick and predictable and not expensive they seem convinced it will happen in Jan – i am not si sure timings are so predictable but… Recently a friend of a friend suffered a miscarriage following an amniotic test (which was negative) – so they lost their child who was healthy. A 1% risk APPEARS low when you think about gambling but for a pregnant mum it is unacceptable. I imagine the ets should come in at less than the scan (which is done anyway + the amnio – which not everyone goes for). It is tragic and there is a long felt need for such a test. Only a quick look sees some disconnect with the USA – where it is suggested in the admission document that companies already offer this type of test not much info given? Also the freedom-to-operate analysis does not include USA and it is very clear from the Stockopedia video on Youtube with the CEO that he sees it as a foot race in Europe (no plans for USA?). In the market analysis they include USA. Anyway I think I am in – for a little and see how it goes. If I have time will read through the patents. I don’t think they are going to be the only company offering this but as he says there is real value in being first and also tieing up the suppliers etc etc.As you say quality board….


  3. handybrownone

    Tom – the basic patent for the Down’s screening is stated to be WO2014033455 to Zoragen due to be assigned to the company – it has a search report available and on the face of it the claims as presented won’t be granted due to GB2485635 (+ anther journal reference) which is filed by Verinata. If you look for Verinata they offer service in the UK and it is currently changing to Illumina which when you look at the US website offers many DNA services including a prenatal screening test based upon a blood sample from 10 weeks – results in 6 days. It can do three chromosome trisomy tests not just Downs better?

    http://www.illumina.com/clinical/reproductive-genetic-health/clinical-labs/nipt.html.

    So I think my first reaction was correct – it is a foot race to the EU market. Since CE submissions are not public until approved then there is no certainty as to where Illumina fits or any other company. BTW GB2485635B is granted and in force. I assume that in fact Premaitha is similar but avoids the patent as they say they have a FTO report. The granted claims are

    http://www.ipo.gov.uk/p-ipsum/Document/ApplicationNumber/GB1114713.9/H8B8KW1CWYX6AVQ/GB2485635-20121008-Claims.pdf

    They look quite broad but I don’t have enough information.

  4. I am not a scientist …………….. Just thought you would like to know .

    But I have made a nice wedge already on this share thanks to Tom .

    Cant wait for a post that starts “ I am a dustman” ( but only on Wednesdays and Fridays due to budget cuts )

  5. Hi Tom, do you have any thoughts on whether Premaitha might be able to accelerate take up of the Iona test, perhaps with a tie up with a bigger third party or similar? Or would you think it more likely that it will be lab by lab growth. Just for the record, I am not a scientist either.


  6. handybrownone

    Wildrides- a dustman twice a week you are lucky. I’m less excited now so sold a few off and will see. No doubt the CE news will cause a rise. Then there will be a long slow decline in SP as PIs realise its not selling billions in the first week. To think that no one else has submitted is unlikely. The Illumina test does three chromosomal abnormalities in one test in the USA that works from 10 weeks and offers results in 6 days (that is the time from sending the sample in to you getting the results back) and they have a UK subsidiary. I think the build is longer than you think and the unknowns are just too unknown. How well does Iona perform?


  7. handybrownone

    Oh dear sued for patent infringement – the claims from Illumina are broad. NIPT said that had a freedon-to-operate opinion but that is worth nothing. Illumina are suing anywya and if you think about it logically it means

    1) muscling NIPT into a spot to get something back
    2) closing them down – a win in the UK will mean no one will touch it anywhere in Europe.
    3) their product is just behind? Causing doubt and everyone switching

    I hope the BOD dont get too emotional and get practical

  8. Handy brown one ( hope its not a floater )

    I sold out a few weeks ago ……….. sounds like a good job if they are getting sued . Why no RNS from the board about litigation I wonder ………. shocking .


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