UK 18:26 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
It seems that my comments in yesterday's bearcast on Gulf Keystone have sent cheerleader for the Gulf loons Paul Curtis into a bit of a frenzy. And so while he takes a bit of medication to calm down I have another go. Then, via Igas, it is on to Horse Hill where today's press coverage is shockingly bad and I have another detailed review of what on earth is going on.
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Comments
Paul Curtis
Again you mislead re GKP
Why are the 13% bonds trading at over 70 cents when the 6.25% bonds trading at about 45 cents? If risk of major hair cuts, yield goes out the window and bonds all trade at similar discount to par. As was the case with Afren bonds.
The first line of my reply to your 10p target Bearcast of a couple of weeks ago made clear that I owned the bonds. From memory I went on to say that I viewed equity as risky and wouldn’t buy it.
You fail to answer my points from earlier.
WHY DID KRG PAY $26m AS AN ADVANCE AGAINST FORWARD SALES WHEN GKP HAD CEASED PRODUCTION?
Why? GKP were cash flow -ve on production and fast running out of money. IMO finances were pretty dire. KRG desperately need that production to increase exports so that Iraq had no excuse to renege on oil sales deal. Hence KRG agreed side deal with GKP. Restart production and we will guarantee payments to at least keep you alive and here’s $26m as good faith gesture. GKP have restarted production and can obviously stop again if no more payments to make their cash last a bit longer. But KRG need that 40K bopd…
This is the risk. You need to understand the macro position.
Jason
As far as I’m aware Paul all local sales are prepaid at least in part… certainly that has been the case for WZR.
If GKP results are to be taken at face value KRG owe them c$100m for exports already sold so paying $26m for future local sales sales whilst not repaying the $100m doesn’t seem a very convincing good faith gesture as it neither pays outstanding nor is it a payment that would not be expected anyway. Perhaps GKP BoD should grow a spine and threaten KRG with an arbitration case for unpaid monies like Dana?
GKP are up to their neck in debt, have real cashflow issues and operationally they’re having problems too but can’t afford capex. They snuck out latest SA-3 well failure in report ~ a dribble of a few hundred barrels for a multi million dollar well ~ which again raises doubts that SH & SA are interconnected. Bargepole stock in my book.
turbograndad
UKOG, don,t invest, or short, just trade on the ramp, plenty of ramperoonie spin, trade the spin, don,t anxst fundamentals and what ifs, theres plenty of spin, trade it, remember fit bug.
Paul Curtis
Jason
KRG refused to sanction local sales since price too low. This $26m is for exports. KRG have revised PSA terms for Genel for local sales whereby revenues split 50:50
This looks like similar deal for GKP but for exports. Since new terms (ie revised PSA terms) the clock starting now. As you say GKP owed about $250m as are other oil companies. KRG need to start paying this if they want the oil companies to invest more capex and increase production.