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Statistics Lesson for those who think that Telit's Oozi Cats is NOT the Boston fraudster

By Tom Winnifrith, The Sheriff of AIM | Wednesday 9 August 2017


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


It is just conceivable that there were two Israeli couples in Boston in the late 1980s - Uzi & Ruth Veronique Katz with the chap born in 1961 and the bird having a March 17 birthday. One went on to be the CEO and the art curator at Telit (TCM) the other were fraudsters. So what are the odds? A statistics lesson follows for you cynics (Leon Boros I am talking about you!):

There are, shall we say, 4.5 million women and the same number of men in Israel or were in 1991

In Israel 0.25% of women are called Ruth
In Israel fewer than 0.25% of women have the name Veronique - so lets put that at 0.25% ( generous)
In Israel fewer than 0.25% of chaps are called Uzi so lets put that at 0.25% ( generous)

On that basis statistics suggest there would be 11,250 Israeli Uzis but but only 31 Ruth Veronique's and I think that latter number is very generous indeed.

Source 

In Israel how many people have the surname Katz? That I cannot find but in 2013  I can see that it was the 12th most popular surname in Israel. The 10th most popular (Malka) was at 0.19%! In case you were wondering, Cohen at 1.93% is top. So the chances of an Isreali being called Katz are less than 0.2%

So there should be 25 Uzi Katz's in Israel but there should only be one Ruth Veronique Katz.

How many Israeli men were born in 1961? As at 1991 allowing for baby booming etc shall we say 3% of the population? I suspect I am being generous but that means there should be just under 1 Uzi Katz born in 1961

How may Israeli women are born on March 17 - shall we say 1/365? So that implies that there should be less than 1/365 th of a Ruth Veronique Katz celebrating her Israeli birthday on March 17.

Now we need that utter fluke of a RV Katz to hitch up with the 1 Uzi and to get married and to be in Boston USA in 1989. I put it to you that the odds on one such couple being in that spot are astronomical. But two....there is more chance of me winning the lottery this weekend and also bunking up with a cheerleader from the Dallas Cowboys. 


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