The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares

Join ShareProphets at less than 2p per article

> All the big AIM fraud exposés

> 300 articles and podcasts a month

> Hot share tips

> Original investigations by our experienced team

> No ads, no click-bait, no auto-play videos

Find out more

2018 Likely to Set Off Large Gold Rally

By Tom Winnifrith | Sunday 3 December 2017


Technical Analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne's latest research unearths some interesting similarities with gold stocks compared to historical three-year bear markets. He found three that compare well; they are the S&P 500 during the great depression, the housing market during the global financial crisis, and Thailand in the mid-1990’s which had a huge bust. He describes how all of the recoveries afterward seem to follow a specific pattern and he sees that behavior in gold stocks. Those patterns ended after 14-24 months with prices moving upwards by 133% to 200%.

Based on this history he thinks the next move leg higher will probably begin sometime in the second or third quarter of next year. What convinced him is the rarity of long-term bear markets, and these recoveries seem to follow very distinct patterns.

Gold in real terms has been pretty weak and lagging even though the dollar has been underperforming. Gold was not able to make a new high even with base metals doing well. This has not been a good year for gold, it’s just been a dollar bear market. Precious metals have been weak relative to other currencies and assets. There is still a lot of relative weakness in the sector, and there is a definite risk of lower prices in the days and weeks ahead. The cryptocurrencies and the stock market may be factors on why gold is being neglected. The Fed hike in December is priced in, and there may be another in March. He feels that investors should start getting ready for the buying opportunities.

Jordan discusses the stock to gold ratio and how it has broken out higher. He thinks this outperformance of the stock market will continue. We are going to have to be patient for a little while longer. All of this is in the latest video from Palisade Capital.

Filed under:

This area of the site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.


Comments are turned off for this article.

Site by Everywhen