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Thirsty Paul Scott on why Sosandar shares will continue to head higher

By Tom Winnifrith | Sunday 22 July 2018

Disclosure: Financial Investigative Media Limited, which is not owned by Tom Winnifrith but by a trust for his dependants, owns shares in companies mentioned in this article. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Thirsty Paul Scott is meant to be on a sabbatical but has taken time out to post his thoughts on Sosandar (SOS) on a Bulletin Board. While HotStockRockets suggested banking some gains or top slicing on Friday at 34.4p, Paul agrees with Nigel Somerville and reckons the shares are going a lot higher. Whatever one thinks of Thirsty, he knows the retail sector well and opines:

"Just because some people don't understand why the share price is shooting up, doesn't mean that it's either wrong, or temporary. People naturally "anchor" to the previous prevailing share price before a big move up, but in this case the doubters simply haven't (yet) realised that the news from Sosandar last week was game-changing. 

In a nutshell, before the results statement last week, Sosandar was highly speculative. After the statement, we now know that the business model is working, and greatly exceeding forecast performance for this year. This is why the share price is shooting up, because investors are re-appraising the valuation, based on new numbers. 

If you crunch the numbers, the quarter ending 30 June 2018 delivered £851k in revenues (net of VAT and customer returns). With 73% quarter-on-quarter growth, you can extrapolate out that (at a declining growth rate, because 73% won't be maintained as the numbers get bigger) full year sales (year ending 31 March 2019) are likely to be something like £5-6m. The original forecast was £3.3m, so we're looking forward to a massive beat against forecast.

This is driving the share price re-rating. It's not a speculative rise, or a pump & dump. The valuation is simply responding rationally to fantastic current trading & outlook. It's all about growth, and the market pays up for stellar growth, hence the re-rating going on now, on heavy volume too.

If people want to ignore sector experts, and think they know best, then that's fine with me. I'm happy watching the money roll in every day as the share re-rates for the reasons given above."

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