Saturday 21 July 2018 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Lighthouse Group – half-year trading update, is ‘in line with expectations’ sufficient for the valuation?
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: ahead of his next helping of Reynolds humble pie,. Cynical Bear sticks his todger in the Versarien hornet's nest - FWIW
Hello, Share Screamers. What do you do when you learn a company has driven up its profits by 71% since last time? You consider buying the shares, of course. You might climb down after studying the numbers, but in the case of BP (BP.) I don’t think you’ll find much to worry about.
Hello, Share Cakers. As troubles in the Middle East mount, it’s natural that oil prices will rise. And as I write, the cost of Brent crude has hit a new high. Not a record of course, as the price was once twice what it is now.
Hello, Share Dazzlers. With all the hoo-hah about trade wars, world debt and high PE’s, one positive signal is creeping up on the rails. I refer to the galloping price of oil. Brent Crude is breaking recent records. As I write, Brent is nearly $71 a barrel. Last July I recall, it was around $40.
Hello, Share Seekers. I have a bigger holding than is safe with BP (BP.), but I don't think I’m going to sell any for some time. Which is a bit of a silly statement to make as, just like any other company, the story could change at any time. But BP has ridden out the storm of compensation. And though the fight isn’t over yet, I think share shifters like us need not worry too much. This is a huge company which can absorb most shocks.
Hello, Share Pingers. This kind of prediction can be doomed to failure, but I rather think the Santa Rally will kick in, at last, this week. There has been a slight retrench due to a faltering oil price. But at the end of last week, the cost of Brent crude had risen again - to $62.72 a barrel.
Hello Share Twiddlers. It’s not long ago that I commended BP (BP.) to you. And it’s been rising ever since. The quarterly results are out and show the tip was justified. Normally, shares dip even on good news on reporting days, but for BP the shares rose again.
Hello, Share Scoopers. Sometimes, gang, it makes sense to include advice from a different source when bringing shares before you for a possible punt. Especially when the other analysts agree with me. The boys and girls at Barclays have repeated an ‘overweight’ commendation for two big oil giants, and I’m glad to say I have chunky holdings in both of them.
Hello Share Pals. The Footsie is creeping awfully near its all-time high and the Santa Rally is still to come yet. So I thought it might be a jolly wheeze to mention four more shares in my current bag which I have the highest hopes for. And here they are.
Hello, Share Collectors. Many of us, I know, are still awash in oil stocks, both the producers and riskier explorers. I’ve been advising that we cut down, as the competition from wind, sun, waves and biomass, threatens to grow. But I think I may have been too hard on ebony nectar and here are a few reasons why.
Hello Share Swiggers. I had a lot of money invested in BP (BP.) shares and was happy as a pig in muck with a galloping share price and juicy dividends. But that was before the big leak in the Gulf of Mexico, followed by a crash in the oil price.
One of the most fascinating scenes I’ve seen for some time is the sight of Big Donald jigging around with some sort of weird entertainment put on by the Saudi’s for the President's visit. It almost made me forget the big benefit of this amiable state visit on share shifters like us. And that of course is that the President’s friendly reception sent the oil price up.
Hello Share Rattlers. On checking the number of BP shares I hold, I was rather shocked. It’s one of those shares I’ve been gradually building up, whenever I find myself with a bit of share cash and no clear company currently worthy of investment.
Hello Share Thumpers. I’ve been spending a lot on shares in recent days. The reason is that I’ve not topped up my ISA and, as the financial year is fast disappearing towards a new horizon, I have been selling a few turkeys in my ordinary trading accounts to fund my tax-protected ISA.
Hello Share Shakers. A bit of a dilemma faces me. I have some BP (BP.) shares in my ordinary trading account. I want to switch them to my ISA. When I do that, there’ll be an interim few days when I no longer hold the stock. For BP at the moment, this is a bit dangerous.
Hello Share Chippers. I rate my large number of oil stocks in the same bracket I consider banks - a real solid gold let down. As I mainly invested in oil and banks because I once thought the sectors were relatively safe, I am even more disappointed. Banks of course have been a drain on our pockets ever since the big crunch of 2007. Whereas oil has only recently taken a nasty dive.
Hello Share Shafters. I keep stressing, to the point of boredom I expect, that these days, it’s best to choose companies which pay richer dividends. We cannot rely on share prices rising, but even in the choppiest waters, some firms manage to award a decent divi two to four times a year.
The global mega cap energy sector reporting period kicked off today with BP (BP/) reporting 'underlying profit of US$1.8bn for the third quarter of 2015, up US$500m on the previous quarter, along with plans to rebalance its financial framework and grow value long term'. Well that sounds like something for everyone then: profits sequentially up and more than a hint or two about the importance of remunerating it shareholders.
Hello Share Chumeroonis. Wasn’t that another marvellous victory for the grumpy crusader? Uncle Tom did really well (again) by fending off a court case threatened by another aggrieved businessman?
Hello share sharpers. I don't think I will be alone in saying that my share portfolio has been decimated by the falling oil price. This is because the Footsie is dominated by big oil shares – BP (BP.) BG (BG.) Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) et al.
Hello Share Munchers. If you look at any old graph in Shareland, you will see that sudden massive dips are almost always followed by a recovery.
The New Year’s rapid increase in the BP (BP.) share price has been testimony to some old market truths; buy for book value and buy when the last man has heard the bad news.
It’s not been a pretty period for the oil price. On Monday (Monday 5 January) ICE Brent Crude Oil fell by a whopping 5.95% to just over 53 dollars a barrel. On Tuesday (Tuesday 6 January) it was down a further 1.05% to 52.50 dollars a barrel. The slide continued yesterday.
I tipped BP (BP.) last year at 484p on the basis that the shares looked good value and without the foresight of knowing that the price of crude oil would fall so far and so fast, particularly given the recovery of the US economy and the eternal problems of the Middle East. Not a good call in hindsight.
Shares can be a real rollercoaster ride. ‘Mr Market’ can perform such gyrations for no logical reason, but this can still have a serious effect on our wealth. This week £62 billion was added to the value of the FTSE 100, as the index enjoyed its best week in three years.
Hello Share Pushers. I know for a fact that you are probably stuck with a load of oil shares. I know I am. Like banks in the olden days, we were under the illusion that we are safe with oil. This was for one overriding reason – that so many things depend on it.
It’s been a shocking week for the FTSE and oil shares. The FTSE was down 2.49% on Friday alone. BP (BP.) has taken a battering too, with a fall of 3.3% and a fall of 6.1% over the previous four days. For some share writers, this might be a quirky thing to write about. But for me I actually put quite a lot of my own money into BP, so it’s more serious and real. However I certainly will not be selling any BP shares, and here’s the main reason why.
The US Supreme Court has piled more misery on BP (BP.) by rejecting its legal challenge to the compensation package over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
As regular readers of my financial research output will attest I am not a skilled technical analyst but the current level of the FTSE-100 index strikes me as interesting. The reason why is sourced in an article I published on this site a couple of months ago where I noted that back then the UK’s leading index was kicking around that 6,800 level. Now I know one correspondent found it to be ‘pointless’ but in the interim selling a few FTSE-100 futures short (as I did) was a sensible way to help protect the value of your portfolio over the last month or two.
BP (BP.) posted results which exceeded expectations yesterday. At the time of writing, the share price has been boosted to 440.1p. It wasn’t long ago that the shares dipped below 410p.
Hello Share Shovers. There are alternatives to the old-fashioned trading of shares when it comes to making a bit of money. Some of these ways become a bit more enticing when the old stock markets are a bit soft, as they are now.
Peter Lynch makes an obvious but interesting point about the PE ratio of shares in his classic One Up on Wall Street. “If you buy back shares in a company selling at two times earnings (a p/e of 2), you will earn back your initial investment in two years, but in a company selling at 40 times earnings (a p/e of 40) it would take forty years to accomplish the same thing. Cher might be a great-grandmother by then. With all the low p/e opportunities around, why would anybody buy a stock with a high p/e?”
Hello Share Mates. I’m beginning to regret holding so many shares in the big oil companies – like BP (BP.) Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) BG (BG.) Tullow Oil (TLW) et al
I’ve been buying a lot of shares lately. I’ve bought some every day this week- and in 2012 I only bought once, some BP (BP.) being the selection. I have a plan to get around 80% of my money into shares, possibly 90%. I am close to 80% at the moment, depending on how you define it.
The more than 5% drop in the share price yesterday of BP (BP) was clear proof that the market was not expecting a US district judge to come to the conclusion that the company had been “grossly negligent” in the Gulf of Mexico. Falling into the hands of the US judicial system, so far as BP is concerned at any rate, has the fantastic aspect that Lewis Carroll brought to Alice in the court of the Red Queen. Can it be real!
Hello Share Totters. So BP (BP) runs against a US judge who says it has been negligent in that nasty oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. The shares dropped nearly 6% on the news. Great – as I have a big holding in this British set-up! I don't know, the whole Footsie is rising like a lolly pop stick in a cloudburst – and I am still down today because of one American judge.
Hello Share Pickers: The bears among us outnumber the bulls. Everyone, it seems, expects shares to fall in value. One of the growling grizzlies' most pressing arguments is that American shares are over-valued. Well, so what? Don't buy them. And sell any that you have.
BP (BP.) shares are trading at 481p on a PE ratio just 6.6 and a dividend yield of 4.8%. The quarterly dividend has recently risen by more than 8% to 9.75 cents per share. BP is my largest holding, and the one I have held for one of the longest time. I am not selling.
Hello Shares Peekers: I'm beginning to wonder if that old cliché about 'Going away in May and coming back on Leger day' is true, after all. For the last few months, we've been given a few false dawns in the long awaited bid to blast the old record of 6,900 or thereabouts. Now it seems shares are really retreating.
Hello Share Shakers: I am heavily invested in oil companies. This is partly due to laziness. They are fairly easy to research. I check how much they hold in reserve first.
Hello Share Turners: It's always prudent to inspect some of your biggest holdings every few weeks or so to see if the story has changed.
Hello share fans: I've just watched a very old video of the famous 1971 film: Love Story. By modern standards, it is slow and cheap looking. But the script is excellent, tightly written, profound and witty.
I've already listed a few big New Year resolutions to keep your share pot on the boil. Here are a few more.
BP (BP.) has been an elephant in the room for long enough. So as a Christmas treat I am including it as one of my three shares of the year for 2014. An elephant is clearly a present for someone who has everything. As this is the season of goodwill to all men - well most men – I shall be brief.
Hello Share Movers: The old shares have been a bit dull this week and although the Footsie has been flat a lot of the time, my portfolios have suffered quite a lot.
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