Until late 2019 shorting shares in Fevertree (FEVR) was an extremely unsuccessful strategy. Its has been a great British success story: a powerful global brand that in twenty years has conquered all before it with superb marketing of a great product.
It is good to see UK markets opening again this morning. No doubt a few people are worried about higher Bank of England interest rates this week, but frankly I would worry more if it did not raise interest rates (as that would tell you it feared the likelihood of a recession too). Meantime, elsewhere I note that there is an upcoming change at FeverTree (FEVR)...
I noted back in September last year that “I am still avoiding FeverTree (FEVR)” and since then the stock has fallen from above a 23 quid share price to just under 16 quid. So what should I now be thinking about the company still obsessed by the potential from the “long-mixed drink category from retailers, spirits brands and consumers, especially given the increasing focus on premium segments"?
In March I observed that “I'm still not buying the stock - or drinking the product - of Fevertree (FEVR)” HERE. The one line view is that nothing has changed and (interestingly given the general market movements over the last few months) the share price is about the same level as it was about six months ago. Whilst the latter sounds dull - especially as the dividend yield is still under 1% - it has not been a disaster given the volatility in some other share prices. The challenge for Fever-Tree however remains its c. x40 EV:EBIT multiple for the full year, around double the level of underlying operating earnings growth. As always, it depends on what you pay for forward growth potential.
I think I have tried a Fever-tree (FEVR) product once but I do not have the right drink preference to be a natural big fan. Anyhow, I did not decide to chase the stock when I last wrote it up in April last year here which actually turned out to be a duff call, as it seems many investors seemed comfortable in paying a higher and higher multiple. Well, funnily enough, I have never really found a forward 40 plus earnings multiple as an easy purchase.
