Fevertree Drinks (#FEVR) – H1 adj. EPS -31%, DPS +2%, “inflationary logistics and product cost headwinds”
- 2022-09-13 07:47:11
After Fevertree’s (FEVR) recent profits warning, Lucian Miers says that he has closed his short. Not that he expects the shares to surge higher just that he sees greater opportunities out there for the teddies. I am not so sure.
Lucian Miers and I both warned that this would happen as, I think, did the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. Chris Bailey is a non-drinker and disagreed. Never trust a non-drinker, as my pal Evil Knievil (not a non-drinker) would say. On 19 May Fevertree (FEVR) told us to expect flat FY EBITDA of £63 million to £66 million. Today, less than two months later…..
Lucian Miers wrote here a couple of weeks ago about Fevertree (FEVR) where he remains short. There may be some people laughing at him as the fizzy drinks group fairly promptly served up a trading statement suggesting that it was on track to meet forecasts. But that is looking in the rear-view mirror. What is important is what happens going forward.
Fevertree (FEVR) has issued a trading update, which seems to read well, but the shares are down and will fall further. Let me explain.
Until late 2019 shorting shares in Fevertree (FEVR) was an extremely unsuccessful strategy. Its has been a great British success story: a powerful global brand that in twenty years has conquered all before it with superb marketing of a great product.
It is good to see UK markets opening again this morning. No doubt a few people are worried about higher Bank of England interest rates this week, but frankly I would worry more if it did not raise interest rates (as that would tell you it feared the likelihood of a recession too). Meantime, elsewhere I note that there is an upcoming change at FeverTree (FEVR)...
I noted back in September last year that “I am still avoiding FeverTree (FEVR)” and since then the stock has fallen from above a 23 quid share price to just under 16 quid. So what should I now be thinking about the company still obsessed by the potential from the “long-mixed drink category from retailers, spirits brands and consumers, especially given the increasing focus on premium segments"?