Share Prophets

Wednesday 20 January 2021 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares


The money raising saga at Saga

Published 108 days ago

Last month I wrote about the insurance and travel name Saga (SAGAand its announced money raising, with money being tapped from the new non-executive chair (at a premium!) as well as existing shareholders and the market. At the link, I called it ‘ten out of ten for commitment’ and on Friday we had the results of the money raising…

What the Hut (Group)?!

Published 132 days ago

Have you ever used e-retailer The Hut Group? On its website it describes itself as being ‘passionate about leading the growth of prestigious global brands in beauty, nutrition, luxury, and lifestyle’.  Clearly I am not its target customer but there are plenty of consumers out there for some of its brands including ESPA, Illamasqua, Myprotein and the online retailer lookfantastic, especially in a pandemic-tinged world which has moved more online.  As Debenhams, House of Fraser et al fade, The Hut Group takes their place.  And soon it will take their place on the stock market with a listing due next week. 

Notes from Underground - Most read articles for the week ending 27 June 2020

Published 207 days ago

The most read non-Tom article this week is Copper is showing strength and Asiamet finally look to have a project partner onboard - speculative buy by Gary Newman is at a stunning number one or number three including Bearcasts and Tom's new shareshow.

Greedy BBC Presenter Naga Munchetty, Aston Martin Lagonda and impoverished shareholders

Published 208 days ago

Wherever I go on the internet I am plagued by banner adverts inviting me to sign up for a seminar with “award winning journalist and broadcaster” Naga Munchetty of the BBC. Naga earns a six figure salary from the state broadcaster funded by a poll tax on rich and poor alike extracted by threat of jail. But Naga is greedy and so lends the good name of the BBC to her commercial enterprises, this one sponsored by salesforce, as you can see in the banner below.

Busy Friday! Administration? (Intu), another money raising (Aston Martin), banking sector warning (Tesco)

Published 209 days ago

Well the day has almost arrived. Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote here that 'Bizarre news of the day among the larger cap stocks on Wednesday was undoubtedly the announcement that property behemoth Hammerson (HMSO) was buying shopping centre peer Intu (INTU) with a £3 billion+ all share (naturally) offer'. I called this deal 'madness' at the time and fortunately (for Hammerson) it walked away due to the clearly fast-deteriorating structural fundamentals around shopping centres. And now, around thirty months later, Intu notes 'insufficient' talks with creditors so far, so 'the Board is therefore considering the position...this is likely to involve the appointment of administrators'...

The latest on continually stuttering rich man's plaything, Aston Martin Lagonda...

Published 253 days ago

I’m pleased to read that Sage (SGE) - one of my tips at this sites recent online investor show - enjoyed a solid first half (to the end of March), with organic recurring revenue of 10.3%. Naturally, life is tougher for its fiscal second half but it has already guided for this in early April as I discussed previously. For me, the continuing subscription / cloud shift is a positive that helps counter the classic slowdown from a suppressed SME environment. Anyhow, good to see the share pushing forward today on a mildly rough day on the markets. But onto the main event...

Oh come on DFS, we know why you are really raising money...

Published 276 days ago

There is raising money to survive (see the regulatory update today from Aston Martin Lagonda (AML)), there is raising money to underpin growth opportunities (see my write-up on Abcam (ABC) a couple of weeks ago) and there is raising money because you are a cyclical business and need to build a buffer. The latter category is going to be the majority of names which raise money over the next six or twelve months…and this includes sofa company DFS Furniture (DFS), which states today that 'the Company is preparing for a possible non pre-emptive equity issue of up to 19.9% of its existing ordinary share capital'...

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Recording a podcast with a Senior Versarien whistleblower tonight!

Published 328 days ago

Sadly Lyin' Neill Ricketts of Versarien (VRS) has not been in touch about my offer to record a podcast but I have a former senior executive turned whistleblower to interview instead and I shall do that tonight and it will go live, togerher with a chat with Lucian Miers in the next edition of ShareProphets Radio out soon, Elsewhere I discuss NMC Heath (NMC) and lessons learned,  Zenith Energy (ZEN) and Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG), whether Tullow (TLW) could be a sero, Aston Martin (AML), Cobra Resources (COBR) and finally ask when Telit (TCM) will serve up a profits warning. Surely it is due.

Aston Martin – diabolical FY numbers and a Rights issue to boot: SELL!

Published 328 days ago

You cannot say you were not repeatedly warned here on ShareProphets – we have been bears from the start of Aston Martin’s latest incarnation as a listed vehicle (geddit?) and this morning we learn that having listed at a stonking £18 per share in October 2018, there is a rights issue on offer at just 207p. Oh, and the full year results are out….

Aston Martin Lagonda is a rich man's plaything

Published 356 days ago

I guess if you are an embattled Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) shareholder then you have a mild spring in your step this morning, with the shares over 25% up. Only another 300+ percent to go until they are back at the IPO price...

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: smiley face, smiley face, smiley face - the new form of RNS from Versarien

Published 379 days ago

In today's podcast I look at mini-bond scandal house Wellesley Finance and why it once again shames new Bank of England Governor Andrew "asleep at the wheel" bailey and the shitheads round at the FCA. I comment on another of its failings in light of today's Neil Woodford News. I comment on Big Dish (DISH), have a theory about Angloa African Oil & Gas (AAOG), comment on Optibiotix (OPTI), Versarien (VRS) and ask how long its Nomad will tolerate Neill Ricketts and finally on Aston Martin Lagonda (AML).

Aston Martin needs much more help than even James Bond can offer

Published 380 days ago

The comedy that is life as a publicly listed stock of Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) continues apace. I see Nigel was moved a few weeks ago to highlight the lunacy around rumours about a big potential new investor into the business. Meanwhile, I observed in my latest bearish update in November that 'my favourite line for insight remains the x5.5 net debt to adjusted ebitda multiple'. Well I must apologise for the conservatism of my comments back then...because today's update places it squarely in the x6s...

Red flags at Night: Aston Martin suggests a drive-by shooting on the way. SELL!!

Published 402 days ago

Perma-dog Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) has been a predictable disaster for investors since its latest iteration joined the stockmarket last year and ShareProphets readers were well warned off by Gary Newman ahead of the IPO and Chris Bailey was no less scathing HERE. Indeed, Tom Winnifrith wondered HERE whether it would go bust for the seventh time. On Friday evening after hours, at 5.05pm – no-one-is-watching o’clock on General Election results day - the company issued a statement. Uh-oh…….

Aston Martin Lagonda car crash earnings...and other corporate disclosure excitements

Published 440 days ago

It was a mixed-up morning for me with some family and business obligations, so I was a bit less focused on today's regulatory news statements early this morning. Habits die hard however and after ticking off my other engagements, I am back at the desk piling through the rather lengthy list of company updates and musings today...I have got to start with luxury car perma-dog Aston Martin Lagonda (AML), which I last commented on at the time of its very expensive bond issue. Today's Q3 results are even described by the company as reflecting 'challenging trading conditions' and you can take your pick of exciting metrics…

Management matters part 2: Aston Martin Lagonda, M&S and Domino's Pizza

Published 473 days ago

I mused on Friday  in the cases of Tesco (TSCO) and perma dog Metro Bank (MTRO) that management - unsurprisingly - matters.  The Sunday press brings more examples...and it is with another perma dog that we start.  In the most blindingly obvious shift since Metro Bank finally got rid of its chair, apparently 'Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) is under pressure to shake up its board and bring in directors with more experience at listed companies after a disastrous first year on the stock market'. 

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Will AML go bust a 7th time & musical chairs at Purplebricks

Published 476 days ago

In today's podcast I update on the farce at Bahamas Petroleum (BPC), look at Metro Bank (MTRO), Purplebricks (PURP), Aston Martin Lagonda (AML), Yolo Leisure (YOLO) and congratulate my pal Gabriel Grego on another triumph at Bio-On and I also look at the latest pompous whitterings from the poltroons at ShareSoc about Burford (BUR)

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Off to the City of Lost Causes to see the Mighty Hammers

Published 483 days ago

Yes my daughter and I will be at Oxford United tonight to see the mighty Hammers. COYI. As I try to contain my excitement I discuss Neil Woodford and what the dumping of IP Group (IPO) shares tells us, Aston Martin Lagonda (AML), the FCA and mini bonds and Alexander Mining (AXM).

Aston Martin foolishly thinks raising money at 12% is good business

Published 484 days ago

The best line from today's crop of regulatory news statements is undoubtedly the observation from Hornby (HRN) that 'We regret not producing a Brexit themed model. Our new grasp of social media has shown us that people are passionate about sharing their views on the topic. If the situation persists, we have plans for a locomotive that reliably gets stuck between stations'. Very good! Also before we get to the main event…

Intu Properties: when even a takeover cannot help

Published 500 days ago

When I look back on the various articles that i write for hopefully your entertainment and illumination each week, one of my favourites of recent months was 'Four shockers you were warned about – Aston Martin Lagonda, Dignity, Intu and St James's Place...' which (if you wish) you can access here 

Notes from Underground - Are we in a Commodity Super Cycle?

Published 535 days ago

This week is another chart, from Visual Capitalist, on commodity trends, for what it is worth. Are we in a new Supercycle?

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - could Aston Martin go bust?

Published 539 days ago

In today's bearcast I look at Brave Bison (BBSN), Kier (KIE), Intu (INTU), Dignity (DTY) and Aston Martin Lagonda (AML). If you are interested in Versarien (VRS), as a bull or a bear, you MUST listen to today's ShareProphets radio HERE

Four shockers you were warned about – Aston Martin Lagonda, Dignity, Intu and St James's Place...

Published 539 days ago

Like buses, shocks often come in groups of three. Today though, in a fit of shocker enthusiasm, I count four that I have recently written about and warned you on. As Tom reminded me during my recent appearance on ShareProphets Radio, perhaps I should get serious about dusting down my ancient shorting skills given my historic schooling at a long-short equity fund. Anyhow, let us stack them up…

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: A car crash occurs as I prepare to bite my lip

Published 547 days ago

My liver survived the visit of Jono relatively unscathed, today I have new guests and will be biting my lip hard. Ahead of their arrival I discuss Aston Martin (AML), Kier (KIE), Westminster Group (WSG) and Dev Clever (DEV). If you have a spare couple of hours later I urge you to listen to my free weekly podcast which is most excellent and can be found HERE

Yet another share price car crash at Aston Martin

Published 547 days ago

In a manner reminiscent of a blundering, multi-take shoot of a James Bond film scene where his pristine ride is written off as part of a plot twist, I see Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) shares are once again having a shocker. Today's 20% odd fall follows the publication of a trading update which included the words 'revised outlook' in the headline. And you can guess already that this is not going to be an upward revision…

Anyone fancy buying an Aston Martin Lagonda SUV to help the company make its numbers?

Published 617 days ago

Lots and lots of numbers out today but something that really stuck out to me was the quarter one update from Aston Martin Lagonda (AML), which floated less than a year ago above 1800p a share...and today is on sale only for a few percent above 800p a share. Now that is ugly from anyone's perspective…

Key IPOs in 2018: Amigo, Aston Martin and Quilter

Published 775 days ago

AJ Bell (AJB) made its introduction to the London Stock Exchange this week and it promises to be a great few days for those that got in on the IPO, with shares soaring almost +35% within the first two hours of trading. The tips have already started rolling in; Miles Costello (The Times) recommends buying as “the shares weren’t aggressively prices, and offer considerable growth and yield potential”. In this week’s article, we take a look back at tipster and broker sentiment towards three other key IPOs over the last six months: Amigo Holdings (AMGO)Aston Martin (AML) and Quilter (QLT).

Surface Transforms – “pleased to announce” results, so why the share price decline?

Published 857 days ago

“Surface Transforms (AIM: SCE) is pleased to announce its preliminary results for the year ended 31 May 2018”. The shares have responded, er, currently more than 4% lower, below 18p…

I'm a fan of the Aston Martin brand but won't be tempted by the IPO

Published 861 days ago

I’m a big fan of Aston Martin cars and it is one of the most famous brands from the UK, but I can’t see myself rushing to buy shares when the IPO takes place in early October. More details on exactly how the floatation will be structured should become available when the car maker publishes a prospectus around September 20, but it is expected that it will be seeking a valuation of around £5 billion.

Broker and tipster sentiment differs towards newly-listed companies

Published 929 days ago

Newly-listed firm Cake Box (CBOX) has been making headlines, as its share price rocketed over 40% in the space of a few days since the company’s IPO last week. Meanwhile, speculation continues to mount over the specifics regarding Aston Martin’s expected IPO later in the year. With new listings making the news, we take a look this week at broker and tipster stances towards firms following their admission to the London Stock Exchange. Using IPO data going back to the beginning of 2015, we retrieved broker and tipster recommendations in the calendar year following each new listing. A “Buy” or “Risky Buy” rating is scored as a 5, a “Hold” rating as a 3 and a “Sell” or “Avoid” rating as a 1. The data throws up some interesting results, which are summarised in the two charts below.

Surface Transforms – argues “these results are encouraging”… but looks to be firmly heading to cash crunch ahoy AGAIN!

Published 953 days ago

“Pre Close Trading, Customer and Operations Update” from Surface Transforms (SCE) includes CEO Kevin Johnson stating “these results are encouraging with good progress being made in virtually all areas”. The shares have responded... er, lower to 18p…

Here's One For Plastic Palace Alice - A One Year Profit-Doubler

Published 1309 days ago

Hello Share Smudgers. Companies which manufacture plastic bits and pieces have done rather well in my bag in recent years. But one I have not so far touched, yet ought to do so soon, is Carclo (CAR).

Cambria Automobiles – review as shares down on “in line” AGM trading update

Published 1478 days ago

Despite being “pleased to announce” an AGM trading update, shares in UK automobiles company Cambria (CAMB) are currently a couple of percent lower, below 60p, on the back of it…

Cars at Night Shine Big and Bright Thanks to Carclo.

Published 1779 days ago

Hello Share Fanciers. Car designs do not change very much. Apart from the electric hybrids, the petrol driven technology hasn't really altered since they first hit our roads at the end of the nineteenth century. And now motors nearly all look alike.

Silverdell – A Whistleblower Emerges: This looks Dreadful for Disgraced CEO Sean Nutley

Published 2561 days ago

A senior manager at Silverdell (SID) has been in touch and has given me a statement which makes dreadful reading for disgraced CEO Sean Nutley. If the regulators want to nail Sean this is not going to be hard. This statement also makes very awkward reading indeed for Nomad FinnCap.

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