Share Prophets

Monday 15 July 2019 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares


Results

Notes from Underground: There's gold in them thar joints

Published 1 day ago

Having spent the week in Canada, I was tempted to put up another Visual Capitalist chart about Cannabis, but the latest one was clearly sponsored and had a logo all over it. We at ShareProphets are purer than that.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the krypotonite at the heart of Neil Woodford's crumbling empire is Benevolent AI and it is now glowing

Published 8 days ago

Cynical Bear warned Benevolent AI would be Neil Woodford's Kryptonite in May 2018. His coverage before then and his and our coverage since then was amazing and so far ahead of that of the Deadwood Press. The Sunday Times does some "analysis" today and almost gets the same answer we got years ago. Wankers. But it has a new angle: the next funding round will be a savage "down round". I explain why this will blow Woodford apart exposing to all what a greedy charlatan and chancer he is.

Neil Woodford’s Patient Capital updates….Oh Dear, this is bad news for everyone!

Published 17 days ago

Reading between the lines of today’s missive from fully-listed Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), it looks as though a flock of chickens is coming in for the evening at Woodford Towers. They may be there for some time as the implications from today’s WPCT RNS is that it’s portfolio of cash-guzzling dogs is about to be hammered, despite the squirmings of the WPCT board.

Neil Woodford’s Equity Income Fund – May portfolio update is just shocking.

Published 22 days ago

I covered the May portfolio update from Neil Woodford’s Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) earlier today. Now I turn to his gated Equity Income Fund (WEIF). As a starting point, I note that its borrowings were up to 2.64%. With the fund valued at £3.7 billion it means the gating started with the massive headwind of a bank overdraft of £97.7 million which we have subsequently learned that the bank has demanded settlement of. Not a good start for a fund which was gated the next trading day facing, we learn, almost £300 million of redemptions. So Neil has to find £400 million just to pay that lot off.

WPCT – May month-end numbers a shocker as Neil appears to bust the overdraft limit

Published 22 days ago

The May month-end numbers from Neil Woodford’s funds are out and the numbers at Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) are really horrible. Just as horrible is that since the end of May the NAV per share has dropped sharply from 89.61p to the current figure of 83.79p – a drop of 6.5% in just three weeks. Bearing in mind that most of WPCT is unlisted, that’s some going.

Neil Woodford – desperate times call for desperate measures

Published 45 days ago

Another day, another round of redemptions. This morning we learn that Neil Woodford’s flagship Equity Income fund has now dropped to £3.75 billion and two of the four accumulation units are now below the £1 issue price of five years ago. Meanwhile shares in Woodford Patient Capital (WPCT) closed yesterday at 77.8p, as against the launch price of 100p about four years ago and last seen are down again this morning to 75.6p, and the newest arrival, the Income Focus fund has seen its accumulation shares drop by around 17% since launch. Desperate times, but fear not: according to this morning’s Daily Telegraph, Neil has a plan.

Notes from Underground: How billionaires prepare for bear markets

Published 57 days ago

I was going to give the Visual Capitalist charts a rest for a few weeks, even though they are popular, because we don't make them ourselves. But I noticed this morning that they are produced in my hometown of Vancouver. So I looked at their site to see if I knew any one who worked there. I don't - but I saw that they literally occupy the old office space of my last business there. If that's not a reason to run another one, I don't know what is.

Benevolent AI - the ticking timebomb for Neil Woodford - the Scientific view of this joke

Published 60 days ago

The £2 billion valuation of Benevolent AI flatters the NAV of Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), whose AGM I shall be attending this morning,  and has - on its own - earned Neil Woodford c£2 million pa in management fees as a result of the EIF Holding. We have covered this Theranos in waiting many times HERE. But what is the scientific view?

ShareProphets Translation Service: Hargreaves Lansdown – still backing Neil Woodford

Published 71 days ago

As discussed by Citywire, Hargreaves Lansdown’s clients have been voting with their feet on Neil Woodford, despite HL maintaining Woodford’s favoured status as part of its Wealth 50 and buying more for its own house funds. In fact, Citywire goes on to report that HL now holds so much Woodford Equity Income between its house funds and client accounts it is classed as a related party. On Thursday HL produced another Woodford-supportive note and the ShareProphets Translation Service gives its view (original in bold).

Neil Woodford – Bank Holiday reading in the press this weekend

Published 87 days ago

As investors settle down for the Good Friday and Easter bank holiday weekend, Neil Woodford has had a fair degree of coverage to assimilate. Articles in The Times and the FT point to Woodford’s sale of £42 million worth of NewRiver REIT (NRR) to his former junior at Invesco – something which ShareProphets readers have been aware of ten days now (it is good to see the dead wood press keeping up!) Meanwhile Citywire reports that the suspensions of Woodford’s stocks in Guernsey may be resolved this coming week although we are not told which way. And Hargreaves Lansdown appears to be standing by its man, still, as it covers the recent results from WPCTsomething covered here some two weeks ago.

Neil Woodford EIF – new figures show redemptions still a monster headache as the dividend crashes

Published 89 days ago

Neil Woodford’s funds have just released their latest numbers to the end of March – somewhat earlier than in recent months. The Equity Income Fund continues its path to becoming Patient Capital, is still overdrawn, has been selling more of its income stocks to meet redemptions and the dividend has been chopped. What’s not to like?!

And this week’s disaster for Neil Woodford is…..Guernsey

Published 93 days ago

The big news for Neil Woodford this week is that his joke listings in Guernsey have been suspended, casting a big shadow over his tactics of playing with the rules over the unlisted stocks within his portfolio. The questions ahead are whether they will now be booted off the Guernsey International Stock Exchange, and what the FCA will demand of him in response.

Neil Woodford uber dog WPCT releases FY18 Results – what about the cash?

Published 102 days ago

This morning saw Woodford Patient Capital (WPCT) release its annual results for 2018. The key points seem impressive: an increase in NAV per share from 91.33p to 97.61p, more disruption tomorrow (along with the disruptive jam) and running costs are just 0.2% (only because the management bonus is triggered at 10% per year and so far NAV has declined). But they say follow the money ….. what about the cash?

With a big hat-tip to Citywire, is this the biggest Woodford scandal yet?

Published 107 days ago

Citywire yesterday published an article which stated that Neil Woodford has listed four previously unlisted investments held by  Woodford Equity Income Fund on the International Stock Exchange in….er….Guernsey. Surely even Guernsey’s own residents would agree that this is not exactly the London Stock Exchange! But the odd thing is that Woodford himself seems to have been a tad reticent on the matter – I don’t see any headline proclaiming great success in gaining a listing in Guernsey from Neil Woodford! Why might that be? And that appears to be the nub of the issue.

Verseon Placing : Neil Woodford spunks $10m investor cash (again) at wrong price – all that is rotten in his failing empire

Published 119 days ago

Neil Woodford has today spunked £7.5 million more of his investors cash in a £7.7 million placing by joke company Verseon (VERS). It is a cynical and seedy waste of other folks cash which shows the moral rot that has set in at the heart of the crumbling empire of Britain’s most disliked, failing, fund manager.

Has Neil Woodford finally lost the plot completely? Blow up FT Interview suggests he has

Published 123 days ago

I see that Neil Woodford has had an interview published in the FT in which he lambasts critics determined to destroy his reputation, misinformation, lazy commentary, fake news, fake analysis which “pisses me off” and vents his frustration at the poor investment decisions of investors selling up.

EXPLOSIVE: Neil Woodford and the $2 billion spoof – Part 3: The truth always comes out in the end

Published 123 days ago

I couldn’t resist coming out of retirement today as I note that Benevolent AI published its group accounts today and my thoughts in the first two parts of this series back in May last year (HERE and HERE) have proven to be pretty much on the mark. This company, and in particular the $2 billion valuation, is an absolute spoof and Woodford is totally complicit in that - and making a fortune as a result. A good old-fashioned birching is too good for him.

Exclusive: Neil Woodford's Unicorn-hunter's graveyard found

Published 251 days ago

Some of you may remember Cynical Bear’s amusement at the operational highlight reported by Woodford Patient Capital Trust in its April results statement:

  “UNICORN HUNTERS: The Company is invested in four companies valued at more than $1 billion – Purplebricks, Oxford Nanopore, Benevolent AI and Immunocore.”

Cynical went on: WPCT used to have many more unicorns in the portfolio, Prothena and Theravance Biopharma to mention two very recent ones. I like to imagine that Neil Woodford is literally hunting them down, investing in them and then shooting them dead from point-blank range. Well, I have news: ShareProphets can exclusively reveal Woodford’s Unicorn Graveyard….

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (September update) – The FT finally picks up on the impending Neil Woodford implosion

Published 262 days ago

Slightly belated update on the end-September portfolio listings this month but the ‘good’ news is that I am no longer fighting this battle alone and a small, parochial rag called The Financial Times has started to pick up on the issues, although they don’t get all the story, natch!

Woodford Patient Capital Trust and Industrial Heat – this hilarity has made my day

Published 297 days ago

Just when you don’t think that the goings-on at Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) can get any more surprising, an RNS comes out of nowhere to make everything right in the world, relating to the unloved holding Industrial Heat. It seems that Neil Woodford can bend the laws of physics after all!

WPCT Interims: Some good news but a few questions

Published 298 days ago

Following my piece this morning on Woodford (HERE), I note that Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) published its interims at the rather odd time of 9.45am today which ruins my competition to some extent. Anyway, there is some good news in there that I am happy to report but it still begs a few questions that I am also happy to ask in my general nit-picking way.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (August update) – Neil Woodford needs a break….and fast

Published 299 days ago

With the end-August portfolio listings coming out yesterday, it is time to update the story and it is not looking any rosier. In fact, quite the reverse. I think matters may be coming to a head here and I reckon Woodford needs a lucky break for once and pretty damn quickly.

WPCT: This is going to be a difficult month for Neil Woodford – let’s play I-Spy

Published 313 days ago

I smiled at yesterday’s announcement from Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) summarising the “summer of milestones” achieved across the portfolio as I imagine that is just buttering up the audience before the bevy of bad news hits. From my point of view, September is going to be a hellish month for Mr Woodford so welcome to ‘I-Spy Woodford’s September Hell’

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (July update) – Is the Equity Income Fund bending the rules again?

Published 328 days ago

There is good news for Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) in the end-July portfolio listings that came out yesterday, ironically due to a bit of help from the Woodford’s flagship fund, the Equity Income Fund. More interestingly, I think I have finally worked out how the Equity Income Fund is getting round its 10% unquoted stock limits which makes shocking reading if correct.

Sensyne Health: A great IPO for Woodford but is it a Purplebricks or RM2 International from here?

Published 330 days ago

Turning to my third, and the most recent, quoted constituent of Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) this weekend, I thought I should give a warm welcome to Sensyne Health (SENS) that joined AIM on Friday at a very nice valuation indeed. It’s good to see that the words ‘healthtech’ and ‘AI’ are able to suck in as much dumb money from the markets these days as the word ‘blockchain’!

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (June update - WPCT) – Um, Neil, what do we do now?

Published 356 days ago

Having looked at Woodford’s Equity Income Fund earlier, I will now turn to Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) which as ever, even though the goalposts keep moving, is up against its limits and with the portfolio remaining awash with cash guzzlers, I’m struggling to understand how Neil Woodford gets out of the mess.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (June update - Equity Income Fund) – Legal & General jettisoned in bid to keep hot air balloon afloat

Published 357 days ago

With the end-June portfolio listings coming out yesterday, I thought I would update with a couple of pieces looking at each of the two major funds. First up, I’ll look at the flagship fund, the Equity Income Fund, where continuing redemptions necessitate exiting one of the better stocks completely leaving a greater proportion of dross behind.

Oh dear, why is everyone leaving Woodford’s Immunocore? Has the “unicorn hunter” struck again?

Published 363 days ago

I’ve touched on Immunocore a few times in passing as it one of the largest holdings in Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) as well as being the largest investment made by Dublin-listed Malin Corporation, of which Woodford is the largest shareholder, obvs! Well, it looks like it’s not a particularly happy ship and I wonder whether a (further) devaluation is required?

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (May update) – Shocking non-disclosure as debt now out of control

Published 388 days ago

Yesterday afternoon, Neil Woodford released his end-May portfolio updates and associated fund factsheets which highlighted the challenges facing Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) in the coming months as its debt position is now almost untenable, not that Woodford has disclosed as such.

Woodford and Autolus – Some much needed good news…..in the short term at least

Published 401 days ago

As I’m always quick to criticise, I thought it only right to congratulate Mr Woodford when the rare pieces of good news turn up and Autolus’s news yesterday is undoubtedly good news although I’m still going to make a couple of observations re Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT).

Woodford and the $2 billion spoof – Part 2: How many reasons do you want?

Published 414 days ago

The first part of this mini-series highlighted oddities relating to the recent $2 billion valuation of Benevolent AI, Woodford’s largest unquoted holding. To complement that piece, I thought I would undertake a bottom-up analysis to understand whether it could be worth such a sum. All I found was more spoofery. It’s a bit of a long read but surely you’ve got nothing better to do on Bank Holiday Monday!

Woodford and the $2 billion spoof – Part 1: More odd-looking funding

Published 419 days ago

In my view, Woodford’s dealings with what is now his largest unquoted holding across his funds, Benevolent AI, is his kryptonite and will be his undoing and I’m doing a couple of articles outlining why I think the current $2 billion valuation is an absolute spoof and why I believe Neil Woodford is complicit in said spoofery.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (April update) – Equity Income Fund ups its debt level to £170m!

Published 420 days ago

Yesterday afternoon, Neil Woodford released his end-April portfolio updates so thought I’d provide a bit of commentary prior to a couple of headache inducing articles (for Neil) later on in the week. Not a huge amount of change; however, it’s good to see an open-ended fund getting stuck into the use of debt in such a cavalier way!

WPCT: A review of the laughable results and three important questions for the Chairman

Published 436 days ago

Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) recently came out with its disappointing 2017 results and thought I’d highlight a few amusing aspects to try to cheer up shareholders here and ask a few serious questions of the Chairman, Susan Searle.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (March updates) – WTF happened to the “hard” 10% unquoted limit at the Equity Income Fund?

Published 446 days ago

There’s been a lot to comment on relating to Woodford Capital Patient Trust (WPCT) recently but with the March portfolio updates for all of Woodford’s funds finally being published on Monday, I thought I should get my updates out as Woodford appears to have been a bit preoccupied to do so with a minor biotech blip and the like.

Notes from Underground: If a Bear casts in the woods...

Published 457 days ago

Five of the top ten articles this week are Bearcasts. I have mentioned innumerable times my belief that we should just dump the text and have all writers record their stories instead. But the powers that be never see my vision, man. 

SHOCKING: Woodford and Benevolent AI – Has Neil really been forced to give away his shares for free??

Published 460 days ago

I’ve been wondering for a while how Neil Woodford was going to deal with the impending crisis at his flagship Equity Income Fund in relation to the hard, unquoted stock limit of 10% and with all his Get Out of Jail cards used up. Filings at Companies House seem to indicate that he was left with one last option – giving his shares back to the company at nominal value!

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Feb updates: WPCT) – Family silver being sold and the future looks bleak

Published 480 days ago

Almost three years after launch, Woodford has achieved what would have seemed impossible at the launch of Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) back in April 2015 in that he has managed to compile a portfolio of 85 holdings without one obviously profitable company among them. Having sold the star of the portfolio in the month namely A J Bell, to keep the lights on and fund a few other future dogs, he’s now left with a whole array of cash-guzzling, largely illiquid dogs – what’s not to like.

Arix Bioscience: Will the Chinese save Woodford’s bacon?

Published 501 days ago

In my conclusion to The Big Short series on Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), I wondered where new pools of capital could come from to keep these biotech valuations afloat now that Woodford has run out of money and I considered capital from China as a potential life-saver. Two pieces of news this week make me consider this further, one in relation to another long-term short pick of mine in the biotech fund space, namely Arix Bioscience (ARIX).

The WPCT scandal – Shareholders should contact the Board and the FCA immediately

Published 525 days ago

I’m not normally one for emotive comment but my “Big Short” thesis at Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) is playing out almost exactly as I anticipated, albeit more quickly than I imagined, and it is an absolute scandal, make no mistake. All shareholders should be seeking redress and recompense immediately. Let me explain.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust and Benevolent AI (again) – a bit more to the shoddy tale

Published 537 days ago

I don’t apologise for banging this drum a bit more in the context of Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) as the transactions relating to Benevolent AI just look so wrong and WPCT shareholders should be fuming and raising hell. I also have a few more facts to share and two additional interesting pieces of information – one new, one old.

Notes from Underground: don't bogart that share, my friend

Published 555 days ago

In the UK, cannabis stocks are fever dreams of bulletin board morons. Here in Canada, it's respectable news in the quality newspaper financial pages.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Appendix 2) – A look at the detail of the strange Benevolent AI transactions

Published 562 days ago

I alluded to the swapping of the Benevolent AI stock between the two Woodford funds in my early chapters of The Big Short looking at Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) but there are so many odd aspects to the saga going back a few years that it merits an Appendix to itself as it raises a number of serious additional questions for the Board in my view.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Chapter 2) – The debt and liquidity crisis

Published 570 days ago

Continuing  my festive series on The Big Short, Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), having highlighted yesterday the huge unquoted risk within the portfolio and having to clean up after its big brother, the Equity Income Fund, I wanted to turn next to concerns I have over its debt levels which leads on to liquidity issues.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Chapter 1) – Huge unquoted risk and a shocking conflict of interest

Published 571 days ago

I started my festive series on The Big Short, namely Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) earlier by providing some wider context about some of the challenges Woodford faces particularly with his flagship fund, the Equity Income Fund, but let’s get into the details of WPCT itself. I’ll start with the ever increasing size of its unquoted portfolio and what appears to me to be a massive conflict of interest.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Foreword) – The wider context: Woodford’s problems with the Equity Income Fund

Published 571 days ago

My Christmas Quiz may have been too clever by half (one entry so far at the time of writing!) but I found it helpful in any event as the research I undertook made me realise that there is massive short potential across the biotech echo chamber participants with Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) being the best example for a couple of specific reasons. Accordingly, I’m doing a few pieces over the festive period outlining my analysis and raising some serious questions along the way for Woodford to answer. To start though one must provide some wider Woodford context particularly in relation to his flagship fund – the Equity Income Fund.

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