This year a lot of private investors seem to have been focussing on any stocks even loosely associated with Covid, plus those in the tech sector, and more recently mining has also seen a resurgence, gold in particular, but oil and gas has very much remained unloved and out of favour. That gives you a great opportunity and this is no fisherman’s tale…
As long as you are prepared to accept a degree of geo-political risk, then I find it very hard not to like Genel Energy (GENL) at the current share price.
Oil prices have taken an absolute battering this week, but I suspect that what we have seen is somewhat of an over-reaction.
Hello Share Pilers. I’m going to stick my neck into dangerous custard and suggest that you might look into a share which may have given you kittens in the past. It’s Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). I have a holding which has decayed over the years to be worth a lot less now.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) was one of the most hyped up oil companies that I have ever seen during my time in the markets, and although that all ended in tears, I think it could be worth another look now as it has changed a lot since those days.
Concrete details of the restructuring at Gulf Keystone (GKP) have apparently been leaked to the Times this weekend, confirming that the end is nigh for this once-loved and highly-debated stock.
June was a quiet month for Gulf Keystone (GKP), at least in terms of news for observers. Internally, there are doubtless all manner of interesting conversations taking place. We were given a twin helping of clues on Friday as to the content and direction of these discussions. Unfortunately, there is still no reason to believe that the shares have any value. But maybe the end is nigh.
And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away.
It is with no small sense of humility that I disclose a token short position in Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
On the surface it seems like good news once again - as has been the case since September 2015 - the KRG has agreed to hand over $15 million ( $12 million net) to Gulf Keystone (GKP) in fact today's RNS is a disaster.
Afren’s (AFR) ex head of IR Simon Hawkins has just posted an amazing confession on LinkedIn which really begs the question who knew what and when about the corrupt management team. And have all the bad guys been named and shamed. If you have lost money prepare to explode with rage. Mr Hawkins writes:
Bombing attacks by Turkey on their kinsman, ISIS chopping off heads of their soldiers? A record heatwave in the region killing the old folk and kids? A war on three fronts? Bugger that, these are but trivial issues for the Government of Kurdistan, top of its agenda is protecting the wealth of Bulletin Board morons who own shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). Well that is what flip flop Ben Turney, Paul Curtis and other bulls of this stock want you to believe. They are wrong.
Genel Energy (GENL) was one of my long term picks for 2015, and I’m still confident that it will come good despite the recent drop in the share price. In fact I think at the current level of around 470p it offers even more value than it did a few months back, and I have been buying myself at close to the current price.
If there is one topic guaranteed to start a row at ShareProphets HQ it is Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). We all know who is on which side and so far I’ve been fighting a losing battle. The collapse in the oil price has hurt this company, but possibly not as much as the specific challenges it faces in getting paid for the oil it produces (oh, and let’s not forget the rampaging nutters currently marauding through the region). On Friday, Gulf disappointed the market with news it had suspended oil exports, pending resolution of a “stable payment cycle”. The share price dropped sharply to settle just above the 52-week low, but are things as bad as the market implies?
My first ‘tip for 2015’ has to be Genel Energy (GENL) which has the potential for big returns and is better positioned than some of its peers.
Two and a half years ago I wrote this article, outlining the apparent direct relationship between the movement of the price of oil and the introduction of Quantitative Easing. Even though I’ve had this at the back of my mind since, I failed utterly to anticipate the recent price collapse of the black stuff, in response to the withdrawal of QE by the Federal Reserve. This should have been an incredible trading opportunity, not least because the move appears to have wrong-footed so many in the market. In grappling for an explanation, most commentators have settled on a consensus that oil’s fall from Grace is down to fundamental reasons and the lack of global growth. Anyone who has followed the Baltic Dry Index over the last few years will know this is nonsense. Given that the outlook for the price of oil looks decidedly weak, it’s time to revisit three stocks I assessed over the summer and look for any possible signs of encouragement.
News broke last night that Afren (AFR) sacked its CEO, Osman Shahenshah, and COO, Shahid Ullah, after the company’s independent review found both directors had received “unauthorized payments”. As a constituent of the FTSE 250, Afren has shown it is possible for non-executive directors to act swiftly and assuredly in dealing with wrongdoing by executive board members. I can think of the odd board or twelve on AIM, which would do well to take note, not least because Mr Shahenshah was one of the co-founders of Afren. Now that he is gone and the company has dealt decisively with any controversy, can Afren’s share price regain lost ground?
I just finished speaking with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO John Gerstenlauer and he has confirmed that the skilled technicians required to complete the final hook up of Shaikan 10 are flying to Kurdistan from Canada this week. In Mr Gerstenlauer’s words “we are still on track for 40,000bopd by the end of the year”. Hitting this target, by the self-imposed deadline, will be a significant milestone for Gulf. The company has been criticised in the past for slippages. In meeting the 40,000bopd goal this could go a long way to proving to the market that this business is finally on the cusp of fulfilling its vast potential. Mr Gerstenlauer is clearly confident of this being achievable subject to the security situation remaining stable.
So much hype and hysteria surrounds Gulf Keystone (GKP) that determining a valuation can be an unnecessarily emotional affair. I’ve been increasingly bullish on the stock, since the publication of the Competent Persons Report. However, today’s numbers have given me pause for thought. At 77.5p (last seen), Gulf is valued at £688million. For a company which produced 2.2million barrels of oil in the first half, there is no escaping from the high degree of expectation priced into this stock.
As Iraq adjusts to a new Prime Minister (not a military coup, Tom) and the US Air Force rains down fury on IS fighters, the Kurds have quietly continued to make progress in supplying the international market with their oil. Reuters is on top of this story and over the last few weeks I’ve had a couple of Google Alerts trigger with news of the status of different Kurdish oil shipments. Of all the reports and rumours currently circling around Gulf Keystone (GKP), this could well prove to be the most significant in the long run.
Ben Turney today suggested that US intervention in Iraq would see Isis beaten back and is thus an opportunity to buy Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Genel. He cites some curious examples to back this thesis up
I’ve spent a little time this morning wondering how I could write about events in Kurdistan. It is horrible hoping to profit out of human suffering, but I’ve had to remind myself the market is amoral. It simply reflects the good and the bad of our society, for better or worse. I’ve chosen to be a market commentator and it is more than probable that if you are reading this piece you’ve chosen to buy stocks. However we might feel about what is happening in the world, in this aspect of our lives our goal is simply to grow our wealth by as much as we can. Fear often leads to the best buying opportunities. It is generally a costly mistake to ignore this. The precipitous drop in the value of the various companies with Kurdish oil ventures could prove to be a significant opportunity for anyone who believes in the long term viability of these operations.
President Obama has now ordered his warplanes to bomb some ISIS Islamofascist loons off to a place where they get to meet 72 virgins. He is now off on a 2 week golfing holiday. If you think that this will save the Kurd oil plays in London - Genel (GENL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP) here is why you are wrong.
On a financial level I have always been bearish on Gulf Keystone (GKP) long arguing that the shares were really only worth 30-50p – something that has not endeared me to the Bulletin Board Morons. Well I guess I was right. But what has changed to make this an outright slam dunk short sell? Answer: ISIS.
Afren (AFR) has taken a massive hit following the suspension of two of its directors, and it could well have further to drop. Last week’s news that the CEO and Chief Operating Officer had received unauthorised payments benefitting them personally has already knocked more than £500 million off the market cap of this oil and gas producer.
It is always extremely difficult to pass comment on companies from the outside, without really knowing what has happened behind closed boardroom doors. Even so, I am as certain as I can be that my call last month, that M&G Investment Management was preparing to dump Todd Kozel from Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) board at today’s AGM, has come to pass. We’ve just heard that Mr Kozel has withdrawn his bid for re-election to Gulf’s board, but with this announcement coming immediately before the AGM, I think we can all be fairly safe in assuming it was a case of his jumping before being pushed. Even though Mr Kozel is going to remain as an officer of the company, his departure from the board is a welcome step in the right direction and I am more bullish on Gulf’s prospects as a result.
It looks like little old Scotland’s referendum on independence is proving to be a catalyst for similar movements around the world. The Scottish precedent has the potential to cause a great deal of upheaval, as previously recognised international borders (often rooted in the imperialist past) melt away and fledgling nation states spring up. As a good old fashioned liberal, I view this as a good thing. Why shouldn’t people be able to vote on who governs them? I’ll admit I don’t hold too much interest in the vote for Scottish independence, other than the provocative view if they are allowed to vote on remaining part of the Union, shouldn’t we English also be granted the opportunity to decide whether or not to allow them (and their tax subsidies) to stay?! But before I unleash another wave of Twitter abuse against our site, let’s move swiftly on to events in Kurdistan.
As the market works itself up into a lather about the prospect of a bid for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP), the significance of Wednesday’s events appear to have been missed by most shareholders. The headline news was Todd Kozel’s retirement as CEO of the company and his plan to remain as an executive director. The assumption appears to be Mr Kozel will see his wish granted in the vote held on his reappointment, at the AGM on July 17th. I’m not so sure. The departure of three of the four non-executive directors, whom M&G Investment Mgt managed to get appointed to Gulf’s board immediately before the last AGM, surely signals an escalation in the boardroom conflict that has plagued Gulf for too long. And now M&G is no longer playing nice...
A difficult week for Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) shareholders finished off with what looks like a positive production update concerning the company’s prolific Shaikan license in Kurdistan. Yesterday, I spoke with the company to confirm a few facts surrounding the latest RNS. In particular I wanted to seek clarification concerning the issues I raised a month ago about the discrepancy between Gulf’s CPR production target for 2014 and the targets the company has since provided, after a few months of operations. In short there has been a reduction in expectations, but this isn’t necessarily bad news, as I explain below. The main point I took away from my conversation was that the company genuinely believes it is on course to deliver its 40,000bopd production target by the end of this year.
I probably shouldn’t write this piece. Making personal judgement on geopolitical events inevitably results in oversimplification and, almost certainly, misunderstanding. I’ve never been to Kurdistan, so the truth is I can’t really have any real insight to what on earth is happening over there. However, my money is mine to do with as I please, and I suspect that the current pullback in Gulf Keystone (GKP) will present an excellent buying opportunity.
The two stocks most beloved by Bulletin Board Morons are Quindell (QPP) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). I have got death threats, shit in the post, a hate campaign against my restaurant for questioning both companies. I am not gloating about the losses suffered by “innocent shareholders.” But the losses suffered by those who have tormented me trying to gag free speech and legitimate questioning cause me no sorrow. Quindell shares have plunged today as it failed to move from the AIM Cesspit to the main market (see HERE) but Gulf is also down by 12.5% at 79.3p: blame leverage and Al Qaeda.
I am trying as hard as I can to be open-minded about the prospects of Gulf Keystone (GKP). Yesterday, Tom penned another bearish piece on Gulf, in response to the morning’s Interim Management Statement. He raised some valid points, but where I felt his analysis fell short was he didn’t take into account what was promised in the recent Competent Persons Report.