I see that Avocet Mining (AVM) which I warned in May and August this year imploded the other day as it admitted that insolvency could be looming. If, like Xcite (XEL), about which I wrote the other day, it does enter administration, the shares are still a compelling sell. This, I believe is by far the most likely outcome and I stay short. The company's words in the recent statement are explicit:
At time of writing bondholders in AIM-listed over-indebted Igas Energy (IGAS) are meeting in Oslo, having been summoned by the company to consider proposals to waive certain bond covenants while a restructuring of the company’s capital is negotiated. Igas previously indicated that a bond covenant breach was anticipated to occur this very week. Will the bondholders play ball?
This is getting to be the most used phrase on ShareProphets: you can’t say you were not warned…..And so today it is the turn of AIM-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) to get the told-you-so treatment, for this afternoon the shares were suspended and the company announced that its bondholders have walked on restructuring discussions with the company and are to instruct the bond trustee to petition for the appointment of a liquidator. In other words, short of a last-ditch effort to patch up a new deal it looks to be light out time. Shareholders are set to lose everything.
The world still hates small oil stocks. We are not sure when that will change but given how many of the mid caps are collapsing either entirely (Afren) or surviving only via schemes that see shareholders almost wiped out ( XCite, Gulfsands, Gulf Keystone, IGAS, LGO, etc, etc) we feel we could be at a Burmah Castrol moment. Do a google search if you are too young to understand the reference!
It is of course Bastille Day and that, of course, prompts a few jokes at the expense of the Froggies. I then move into Gulf Keystone (GKP) and a spot of moron baiting and working out moron investing game theory. I then move to a detailed look at Digital Globe (DGS) before covering en passant XCite (XEL), LGO Energy (LGO), Trinity (TRIN), Circle Oil (COP), Premier Oil (PMO), IGAS (IGAS) and Nostra Terra (NTOG). I also comment on Glenwick (GWIK), 88 Energy (88E), Strat Aero (AERO) and Inspirit Energy (INSP)
There may not be a bearcast tomorrow. It is all down to the arrival of the Mrs as I explain. Meanwhile I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and XCite (XEL). The best time to kick a man is when he is down. So says Evil Knievil. And that applies to these two oilers where events are moving fast and the shares are near enough certs to be toast already. CIC Gold (CICG) is in an even worse state and today's RNS is a shambles. The curse of boy scout mugger Stuart Bromley strikes again. It is doomed. Then I discuss what, if anything, is wrong at TrakM8 (TRAK). Then a question raised by the share price move on Friday at ADVFN (AFN).
And so today, Circle Oil (COP) has admitted what anyone with half a brain cell could have figured, that it is officially toast. The question is which of the drowning in debt oil mid caps or large E&Ps will be next to fess up? There is an RNS from Gulf Keystone (GKP) today saying its bondhoders have given it another 11 days but could it be overtaken by XCite (XEL), whose shares are sliding as the clock ticks? Other oilcos in breach of loans include Trinity Exploration (TRIN) and LGO Energy (LGO) while the yield on IGAS debt suggests it is in the merde. So who will be next to admit it's toast, to use either the word "administration" or the phrase "little or no value for shareholders". Voting deadline is midnight tonight.
And yet again the Bulletin Board Morons take something of a battering because they thought they knew better. This time it is - essentially bankrupt - Petroceltic (PCI), shares in which have this morning been suspended pending clarification. Ooops a daisy.
Time and time again we bears warned folks that shares in Petroceltic (PCI) were essentially worthless. But the Bulletin Board Morons - as always - knew better. Tom Winnifrith is just a failed fund manager/pizza boy/alcoholic they chanted as they bid the shares to 20p+. Oh dear folks, this former oil analyst has no sympathy as today Petroceltic received a bid at just 3p per share and that is as good as it will get. The Morons - as ever - just do not know what they are talking about.
The weekend press is full of stories of doom and gloom and dividend cuts for BP (BP.) and Shell and clearly there are a stack of smaller companies that are totally screwed and where shareholders are likely to face total wipeout. In that vein I discuss Magnolia (MAGP), Igas (IGAS), Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite (XEL) and, of course, LGO Energy (TOAST). But is there a case for buying oil shares as a long term invester. I look at a few cases from BP down to Union Jack Oil (UJO). Perhaps there is no rush but the time will come.
I am sorry for the delayed podcast but I am only just back from time in the Grim Northern welfare safari with the mother in law and thus can now let myself go with a volley of bad language. I end with an explanation of who benefitted from the £150 million + Himex fraud at Quindell (QPP) laid bare earlier HERE and how it also affects Watchstone (WTG). Before that I talk of my annoyance on the silly blogger spats and the explain the difference between a cash shell and an investment company and why I regard our work on exposing the latter as invaluable. In the middle segment I have more bad news for oil companies such as XCite (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Petroceltic (PCI) & Gulf Keystone (GKP) and for the sector as a whole but also for the markets. Dont blame China, we bears are still in the driving seat.
How do you know what a North Sea development project will cost? Well, most of us have our rules of thumb, some a tad more sophisticated than others. They range from just knowing that North Sea capex per barrel has been running at nearly $30/bbl for the last few years to sophisticated computer models based on construction rates and equipment weights.
I have posted before on the breakeven oil price for some North Sea developments and then in this follow-up post I extended that analysis to make rough and ready estimates of how the net present value per barrel varied with oil price for most of those projects.