Gold ended the week at $1818, nicely up from last week’s drop to below $1790 and the close at $1797. The yellow metal is still not though $1830 resistance but the general direction of travel over the past month and a half has been upwards and the past four and a bit months has seen a steadily rising series of low points – even if of late there seems to be a ceiling at $1830.
Ex broker and commentator Bill Holter of JSMineset makes it clear: inflation is unavoidable and that must send gold higher.The process is already underway.
Our favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com, reckons that Gold is in for some slippage – it could slip down to around $1670 or so in the run-up to the Fed’s first interest rate hike, probably in March. If that is not enough, the minutes of the last Fed rate-setting meeting made it clear that it will be tightening policy – and possibly performing quantitative tightening (the opposite of QE) too. Normally that might be seen as a cue for the yellow metal to nose-dive, and although it fell once again below $1800 it closed the week at a resilient $1797 – down just $33 from the close at the end of 2021.
Hello, Share Plungers. You know how you get a feeling that a share is going to start a bull run? The value of such a premonition often depends on how long you’ve been pursuing our golden game. As someone who began shifting shares in King Solomon’s reign, perhaps my view, based on a lifetime of subconscious financial considerations, is worth a bit more than most. Or perhaps not. In any event I have a nagging feeling that the big high street banks will start to pile on share value. And I rate Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) higher than the other four.
It was not a big Christmas shocker for Next (NXT) to declare this morning that ‘in the eight weeks to 25 December full price sales were up +20.0% versus two years ago…This was £70 million ahead of our previous guidance for the period’. That is far from a disaster, even if Next shares have fallen below the 80 quid level.
Gold ended the year at $1830 – up $20 in a shortened week, but down almost $70 on the year. So much for my belief that anything to do with Gold would have a good year – and so much for my $2000 at year-end prediction. But I sense things are swinging back in favour for the yellow metal.
Yes Piers Linney is back. I fill in a few gaps for Mail readers including red flags from the latest venture of disgraced Piers, Moblox Limited. Then it is onto macro predictions on oil, gold, interest rates, inflation, house prices, tax, equity markets and bitcoin. Happy New Year.
Gold finished for Christmas at just about $1810, up $11 on the week as Gold enjoyed a very minor Santa rally. The view from the Montana log-cabin is that this recovery of $1800 is fragile in the short term, but I expect a much stronger 2022 as the grinding correction fizzles out and the US heads into mid-term elections at the end of the year.
Analyst Jaime Carrasco of Canaccord Genuity is still a gold bull and here’s why.
Well that was a strange week! Having plunged as low as $1765 earlier this month from a high point of $1872 mid-November, Gold has been trying to put in a recovery but there have been some strange reactions.
This week Gold again went nowhere, closing at $1783 against last week’s….er…..$1783. But beneath the apparent market inactivity I sense there is a change of sentiment going on. The issue for me is that in theory, with interest rate rises on the horizon (making bonds more attractive) and suggestions that inflation may be moderating, Gold should be falling in price yet it is holding up quite nicely.
Whilst I do think there are some interesting travel plays, I am far away from excited by either TUI (TUI) (which reminds me of a German equivalent of Thomas Cook) or SSP Group (SSPG) (where you will not be seeing me buying something from an Upper Crust store at a railway station or an airport). I am a bit intrigued though to see that the Taylor Wimpey (TW.) CEO has decided to move on, especially as we saw last weekend rumours that private equity players may be buying a stake. I wonder if the rumours around this have had an influence, although serving as its CEO for 14 years is a decent innings. I don’t think though I have ever written about McColl’s (MCLS), the convenience shop and newsagent operator with trading names Morrisons Daily and (naturally) McColl’s.
Gold had a steady week last week, closing at $1783 per oz, down a shade from $1792 the previous week. As bond yields have moved higher as the market anticipates the Fed’s taper and rising interest rates, it seems to me that Gold is trying to climb the “wall of worry” but as yet hasn’t had the impetus to clear the hurdle. We will have to wait a little longer.
Commentator Adrian Day says that “The Fed’s bark is worse than it’s bite.”
It is all about inflation stupid! Analyst Peter Boockvar of the Bleakley Group kicks off with the latest CPI prints and the transportation bottlenecks. He argues that these logistics issues are likely to persist to the number of trucking and shipping companies that went out of business in recent years which is one driver of the thief in the night.
Gold may have sold off at the end of last week, but seems to me to be sitting pretty at $1845 – down $21 on the previous week but still nicely above former resistance at around $1835. But there is perhaps a rather more troubling line to cross at around $1900 or thereabouts, which might take a few goes to crack.
For many years the Economist magazine has been a rather, no very, tedious mouthpiece of the left leaning metropolitan establishment, but at least it pretended to understand economics. But I guess now even that pretence has gone.
Veteran financier Simon Hunt argues that there are generational risks in the global economy, there are growing bubbles everywhere, along with enormous amounts of speculation, overvalued markets, and geopolitical tensions which all appear to be worsening. In addition, he says, we have central bankers running wild but debt can’t continue to grow faster than the economy. Navigating these risks is difficult. You can either run with the crowd or take preventative actions. Interestingly, two countries China and Russia have chosen to take prudent action for their economies. They are preparing for the monetary collapse outside of their countries. They understand that this will end badly.
Veteran analyst Alasdair McLeod claims that the investment management industry is completely ignoring the expansion in money and the resulting inflation. Price increases are the consequence of this expansion of the money supply. He notes that we’ve experienced an expansion by 400% in M1; we are in hyperinflationary territory. Further spending on infrastructure using more printed money won’t make this any better.
We currently find ourselves at a very interesting fork in the road because the overstimulation of economies by Central Banks since March 2020 is now starting to feed through into higher reported inflation and, more importantly, inflationary expectations. I see no return to a low inflationary world any time soon.
I don’t think it is quite time for an Ouzo yet, but I’m feeling pretty happy watching Gold rise to its current level of $1866 – up $40-odd on a week ago and, importantly for chartists, through resistance at around $1830-35 which ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com, had been looking for whilst warning of a drop.
Writer Lyn Alden is bang on the, increasingly worthless fiat, money when it comes to the thief in the night. She’s my sort of bird.
I discuss what I should write in my weekend Tomograph: losing faith in the CofE or why is sleaze everywhere? That leads neatly onto inflation and that shock US data yesterday. Then I look at the fraud Supply@ME Capital (SYME) where my vindication is complete, and which I can celebrate with vodka infused plum crumble, Volex (VLX), Manolete (MANO) and Feedback (FDBK)
Hello, Share Creepers. This old punter rather likes all the high street banks at the moment. But Lloyds (LLOY) may be the best of the bunch if you’re looking for a rising share price. The stock reached a year high a week ago. But that was still only about 50p compared to £3 or so back in the day.
Gold closed the week – and month – at $1785, down from last week’s $1792 having again had a go at breaking through $1800. It does keep knocking at that door but so far there isn’t the buying strength to go through. I fancy that the market isn’t keen to put its money on the table ahead of next week’s central bank meetings in the UK (less so) and more importantly at the Federal Reserve. Whilst there is plenty of speculation that the UK will raise interest rates, over at the Fed the question is merely about tapering the vast quantities of new cash being printed and for Jerome Powell and his colleagues it is a tough call.
I remember – about 25 years ago – that my first boss told me a story concerning a previous contact of his who had bought shares in HSBC (HSBA) many years beforehand and it had provided a fantastic total return profile for the next few decades. Such is the attraction of thinking a bit like Warren Buffett and spotting an idea that is set to continue to perform well for the next thirty or forty years – and holding on. However, hindsight is easy to quote but harder to achieve. And whilst I have my own list of names I anticipate my pension fund is unlikely to sell its holding in during the rest of the 2020s, unsurprisingly this list does not include HSBC which I dumped about 4 years ago (at an akin share price I had purchased the stock at about 4 years earlier). The ‘Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited’ is a flash name, but despite the rise and rise of Asia over recent decades, any HSBC shareholder will be aware that the shares peaked in the year 2000.
The latest results from pawnbroker H&T Group (HAT) noted Covid-19 related trading restrictions and reduced high street footfall impact but they still showed profitable resilience and noted growing confidence. We can understand why, given the strains raging inflation will put on household budgets, and predict a return to the 380p+ share price levels of early 2020. At a current 283p offer price (279p when we tipped it two weeks ago) and up to 290p, this is a recovery BUY.
Analyst Jeffrey Christian admits that folks do not agree about what will happen next. He discusses his recent presentation at the Silver Symposium and how his opinions differ. He notes that all currencies are fiat and that gold’s value is determined by fiat. Much in the same way that currencies are valued by national central banks.
Gold closed this week at $1792 – up from last week’s $1768 and like last week it had a pop at $1800, reaching $1813 before being batted back down below $1800. Gold stocks had another good week too, as can be seen on the chart showing Gold, GDX (major producers’ ETF), GDXJ (“junior” producers) and GEOX (explorers) below.
Fully-listed Christmas share tip of mine, Golden Prospect (GPM) released its interim results to June this morning. The bottom-line news was that Golden Prospect lost 16% in NAV terms over the period – not exactly a healthy performance. But as long commented on these web-pages, Gold and Gold stocks have been in a correction since the beginning of August 2020 and I have commented before that Golden Prospect is likely to over-perform in both directions so when times are good they are really good for shareholders, but when Gold goes through stickier times Golden Prospect is likely to underperform. And so it has been: Golden Prospect’s NAV dropped 16% whilst GDXJ (the “junior” gold-miners ETF) dropped 14.7% and the yellow metal itself only fell by 6.4%.
Previously writing on cleaning and hygiene products private label and contract manufacturer McBride (MCB), in August with the shares falling below 80p I wrote price increases “challenges” & more. Hopefully our warnings were heeded, concluding there now seems set to be a first half loss and, with the previously noted clear challenges being added to, I question how much confidence there can really be in the suggested second half recovery. Hopefully prior warnings here were heeded and at this juncture still avoid / sell. The shares last closed at 69.4p and are now further lower on the back of an “AGM Trading Update”…
Analyst Christopher Aaron says “Now is the time to prepare your lifeboat because there is trouble coming for the dollar.”
Hello, Share Crunchers. Allow me to turn to a company in the restaurant sector. Am I already hearing howls of protest? Well, I’m aware the hospitality sector took such a battering in the worst of the covid crisis that it’s hard imagining an easy recovery. But the coiled spring effect could soon re-invigorate this company.
Gold finished this week at $1768 per oz, up $11 on last week and $6 on the week before – hardly an earth-shattering move. But mid-week it hit $1800 on CPI inflation data from the US showing that prices had risen more than expected at +0.4% in September against expectations of 0.3%. Suddenly everyone was worrying about inflation – so much for the Fed’s “transitory” label: the truth is emerging that inflation is indeed a problem. What kicked Gold back down again was US retail sales for September, but there is a bit of a problem with that…..
I start with a couple of talkes fromthe Welsh Hovel and what they say about inflation and that almost drove me into buying two stocks for my SIPP. I considered another two but then went for a fifth, an oil and gas play. I explain my thinking behind all. Then I discuss Peter Brailey’s piece on ITM Power (ITM)
Writer Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” has a couple of pretty extreme big calls.
Previously writing on bathroom and kitchen products company Norcros (NXR), in February 2020 I noted a set-to-be-impacted year and avoided as the shares slid from 291p. They last closed at 290p but now a trading update sees them up to above 320p.
Previously writing on footwear retailer Shoe Zone (SHOE), in March with the shares at 70p I concluded that I’ll monitor the net cash generation going forward to see if it is recovering to justify that, but currently still only on the watchlist. The shares last closed at 66.5p but are currently 80p on the back of a trading update, so what’s the situation here now?…
Against this backdrop our money is edging ever closer towards its biggest reinvention in centuries, which has implications for us all. Not only will this impact our everyday lives, but it will have a bearing on the future value of our pensions and savings in a world where inflation is back after decades of lulling us into a false sense of security.
Gold closed the week at $1757, down a tad from last week’s $1761 but pretty much unchanged. Nothing to write home about, perhaps, but very quietly Gold stocks seem to be showing a little more poise than of late. My chart of Gold against GDX (Gold majors’ETF), GDXJ (Gold not-so-juniors ETF) and GOEX (Gold explorers) shows what I am talking about.
Hello, Share Starers. Banks are responsible for some of my biggest losses over the years. I still have holdings in most of the big British ones and, as I expect something of a resurgence, I will continue to hold them. Why am I optimistic?
As a famous Led Zeppelin song once observed: “if it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break”. Such is life in a world of higher government debt levels and (in many cases) excitable equity valuations and exceptionally low bond yields. That is not a combination which continues, in other words you have to keep very active with your stock selection (and general investment allocation). I am certainly confused about some of today’s results from the UK market.
The Gold price rose a little this week to $1761 from $1751 a week ago despite at least short term fundamentals being against it. Interest rate expectations are for rising rates, bond yields have been rising and equity markets haven’t cracked: the immediate outlook isn’t all that great for Gold, but it’s hanging in there.
Another week goes by and Gold is testing the nerves: having bounced between $1750 and $1830 or thereabouts over the past three months, this week the direction of travel has been lower and the price closed the week at $1751. Worse still, we have seen a series of lower highs.
I start with how I am terrorising folks in this hotel as I sneeze in the lift and droplets fall from my ever redder nose. I know I don’t have covid, they don’t. Then I move onto Malcolm Stacey and inflation. Then onto Bidstack (BIDS), a train crash in the making. Then I discuss the lorry driver and cabbage picker crisis with a joke at Jim’s expense and also what is the obvious solution.
This is getting boring! Gold fails at $1800 and slips, recovers, shows signs of another attack at $1830 resistance and then fails again. Repeat ad nauseam. As can be seen from the chart below, it has been going on for some time now – indeed, since mid-June.
I had hoped that Gold might push through resistance at $1830-50 last week, but it did not – and the price slipped more-or-less all week to close at $1787 per oz, down from $1828 a week ago. The apparent resistance tells me that there is some way to go before there is enough market strength to push on higher to $1900 and beyond.
Another week and more positive progress in the price of Gold. Last week it closed at $1817 per oz, now it is up to $1828 and spent the back end of last week having a pop at $1830 overhead resistance. This is all very positive in my book, and Silver had a strong week too moving up to $24.73 having put in a low point of $23.00 last month. So is the Gold Bull-market about to reappear?
Bullion dealer James Anderson looks at gold demand since 2020 and argues that interest in metals is steadily increasing. In the years to come, he predicts that this interest will continue as uncertainty in the markets grows: The structure of the financial system today is vastly different than in the past. Now there are layers of obscurity hiding the unstable system. Eventually, these problems will be too big to hide.
Either quitting or not turning up or quoting daft prices or saying they can’t do anything till whenever. It is all part of the inflationary storm and I discuss that. Then daft broker and paid for research notes. Should regulators act? I think it is pointless. I look back to 2010 and 2001 and other notes, it is all just a sign of the times.
Investor Michael Gentile has a simple message about the only way to cope with inevitable inflation coming down the track towards us and fast.
The thief in the night is on a roll
Gold ended the week at $1817, up from $1781 last week. The big news was the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell’s speech to the virtual Jackson Hole shindig and whilst there had been some talk of a spot of hawkishness and an imminent taper on the masses of magic money being spewed out by the Fed, what we actually got was that the Fed’s view was that it could be appropriate to trim in this year. Which, of course, means it also could not be! The result was that Gold headed north and gold stocks followed suit.
Back in April I observed that at the time it was ‘getting closer to my two quid and out share price target on Barclays (BARC)’. Well that was true at the time…and sort of still true today even if the shares today are slightly lower than it was a few months ago. There are a few reasons for that.
I have been noting for the last few weeks how the Gold price has been fairly stable (…ish!) whilst Gold stocks have been falling. Last week I had wondered whether a mini double-bottom put in by gold stocks might draw an end to this. Alas, no – here is the chart for Gold, GDX (large gold-miners’ ETF), GDXJ (“junior” miners ETF) and GOEX (gold explorers’ ETF). They are still dropping.
What a week: last weekend Gold had dropped sharply to $1763 and dropped further overnight Sunday/Monday, posting a flash-crash low of $1680 before recovering to around $1730. It all looked so gloomy: gold stocks were struggling, Gold had broken support at around $1775 and the only way appeared to be down. But we finished the week at $1780. Should I be getting out my party hat?
Celebrated author and investor Marc Faber does not mince his words. Most stock markets and sectors have underperformed compared with US Markets. This, Faber explains, is because every time the Fed prints, it ends up with corporations and the super-rich. Markets are no longer homogenous, and fiscal deficits are no longer expanding. This is making it more difficult for the entire market to move upwards.
Having traded between around $1800 and $1830 for the past month, on Friday Gold finally gave way and dropped to $1763. Gold Stocks duly followed. So what lies ahead? Further declines, a jolly good bounce or just flat-lining?
Back in April I wrote about Taylor Wimpey (TW.), ‘one of the largest British based housebuilding companies’. Back then the shares were above 180p, but even with a decent rise this morning after the publication of first half numbers, the shares are still ten pence or so below the level back then. So what is going on?
Last week I pointed to the fact that while Gold was holding the $1800 per oz mark, Gold stocks had been sinking and I put up a chart to show it. Here is that same chart a week later:
A final melt up followed by an 80% market crash? This David Hunter chap is a cheery fellow is he not?
Back in early March I wrote some thoughts about Essentra (ESNT), which describes itself as a ‘three global divisions’ business active in 34 countries and having 50 principal manufacturing facilities. After appraising its business I bought some shares a week or so later…and judging by today’s share price have made absolutely nothing (admittedly after putting aside the volatility of the last month or two in many parts of the market). So what do I think after today’s first half numbers?
Sometimes I am good at investments…and sometimes I am not so good. Today is an example – fortunately not overly regular – of the latter as the shares I bought in Reckitt (RKT) at 58 quid something in late February this year, are now at 56 quid something. So not exactly awful but far from smart given I have written positively about the stock
including on Sunday a couple of times and had plenty of opportunities to make a nice turn and move on. So why the share dump today?
Good news: the mule with my money arrived last night. I shall buy the shares at 8.30 AM Monday and serve up a bonus bearcast/bullcast to explain my thinking then. The rest of today’s podcast covers inflation, the genie has escaped but what should you do?
There is an interesting dichotomy between the prices of Gold and Gold Stocks. Encouragingly, Gold closed the week having held the $1800 mark at $1803 but Gold stocks, Silver and Silver stocks have been sliding. What to make of this?
Asset manager Michael Gayed notes that this year has been remarkable in many ways. That is a bit of an understatement.
Gold closed this week at $1812 – up a notch from last week’s $1808. That’s a fourth weekly gain in a row, which is good, but given that the price peaked at over $1830 it’s a bit of a disappointment. The surge was in reaction to yet another set of US inflation data well above expectations, but the response was short-lived.
Last week the Gold price closed up just $6 at $1788. This week it has put in a slightly less modest increase to $1808. Gold has notched up a hat-trick of weekly gains; I’m not so sure that this means it is time for the return of the Gold bull-market just yet, but there are some positive signs.
Ron Paul for President! Sadly he never made it past the Republican Primaries. America is not ready for a honest, sound money libertarian yet. But the good doctor is still my hero. In this new video, Dr Paul discusses the need to reduce the size and scope of government. He argues that people today rely on the government too much, and politicians can’t resist taking advantage of this dependence. It’s like an addiction, and stopping it is a problem. The plunge protection team has done a miraculous job of propping up the market. But, unfortunately, Paul argues, the dollar will continue to decline, and inflation will result in the prices of everything going up.
Gold edged higher again this week to $1788 from $1782 a week ago. It is not much of a move, but following the beating in the wake of the Fed’s threat to raise interest rates in two years’ time that is now two positive weeks, which is good (for gold bulls). There are plenty of reasons for optimism that Gold will head a good deal higher a few months out, but I am keeping the faith that we will again see $2000 Gold by year-end and this is why.
Gold finished the week at $1782, having finished last week at $1764 – a modest improvement, but still a long way off $1900 which it was trying to clear before the Fed dropped the bombshell that it saw two rate rises…not this year, not next year, but in 2023!
Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven, is an outspoken and entertaining fellow who is pretty much bang on the money most of the time. His core thesis is that modern financial systems are essentially nefarious schemes that benefit politicians and the wealthy.
Hello, Share Mashers. This old punter avoids shares in companies which sell greetings cards in the old fashioned way. But I’m quite disposed to Moonpig Group (MOON), which sends them out digitally. My grown-up kids use the service regularly and, as more people become computer literate, custom is likely to increase.
Very few investing today can remember what inflation was like to experience as a wage earning adult, the markets just do not understand how it works
Crash! Having had a fair old go at clearing $1900 Gold went into reverse this week to close at $1764 – down a whopping $114 from last week. Apparently Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, has suddenly become a hawk……having told us he would ignore inflation data for the rest of this year, that unemployment is his biggest concern and that he wasn’t even thinking about thinking about tapering QE (which, we are told, would come before raising rates), now we are told to expect maybe two rate hikes in 2023. And that was enough to send precious metals into a tail-spin.
Bankster and author Diego Parrilla defines a bubble and how misconceptions can distort reality at extreme values, either high or low. Every bubble has an anti-bubble.
Nick Giambruno is Chief Analyst of The Casey Report and warns that the thief in the night is now out of control. Nick differentiates money from fiat currency and where investors should hold their wealth in times of crisis. He argues that Bitcoin is a good alternative and is not unlike gold. Digital scarcity is a new invention, and the real revolution is in bitcoin, not other digital currencies. Bitcoin is unique because it isn’t controlled by banks or corporations and works as a form of digital gold. He believes bitcoin is in the process of monetization around the world.
Last week Gold had broken its upward trajectory, closing at $1892. This week it tried again to get through $1900 but closed the week at $1878 and Silver again struggled with $28, closing the week just under that level. So was it a bad week? Well, no.
I start with a few thoughts on Kefi Gold & Copper (KEFI) in the wake of today’s scoop. Then it is onto more failings at the FCA and the scandal of its staff bonuses. Finally some thoughts on inflation which is now clearly starting to get a grip. Even so, I can’t stop myself holding a good bit of cash.
Gold finished this week at $1892, down a tad from last week’s $1904, so the week-on-week uptrend that has been going on for a while seems to have stalled. Data again suggested inflation is in the system and whilst the market reacted positively to Friday’s jobs data in the US, the number came in short of expectations again.
Hello, Share Munchers. Most indicators point to a surge in share prices during the summer. So much for the city adage ‘Go away in May and don’t come back till Leger Day (early September)’. It’s always wise to keep at least 10% of our assets in cash rather than shares. But I’ve just exchanged some of my dough for stock in expectation that a share boom happens.
Writer Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” kicks off by explaining how the Repo Markets function, their purpose, and what led to the September 2019 freeze. It’s the financial plumbing of the entire banking system where banks lend to each other. The front end of the curve acts as a temperature gauge for the system. Why does this matter?
Apparently $1900 represents massive resistance for Gold in the charting world and a break of that line would be hugely bullish. The good news is that the yellow stuff closed the week – and month – at $1904, so is this the big break I have been waiting for?
AIM-listed online ladies fashionwear purveyor Sosandar (SOS) has announced the placing I have long predicted, and a Primary Bid offering alongside. The fundraising, announced at 5pm yesterday – after hours, natch, was planned to raise £5.24 million at 20p per share and this morning it was announced that the placing and Primary Bid offer had closed, having been oversubscribed. My stance for the past few months has been wake me up after the next placing. So am I now a buyer?
I start with good news: Rogue Bloggers for woodlarks have now raised £42,781.89 so are just over £5,000 short of our target. I describe my training walk today and fears that R Lewis Esq may be a bit of a girlie swot in the walking department. Anyhow, if you are yet to donate, please do so HERE. Then, prompted by Peter Hitchens, I discuss inflation. It is not benign and as it grows it will hurt many. The signs of its menace are all around us. So what do we do?
Gold has had another good week, closing at $1880 – up from $1831 a week ago. ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com had been targeting up to $1850 as a point of overhead resistance and it seems that the line has been crossed – seemingly quite easily.
I’m feeling a little smug following my call last week that the bull-market everything bubble was rolling over and Gold was the place to be, especially vis Bitcoin and technology stocks. Of course, there is plenty that can bite me on the backside so I won’t get too smug – not yet, anyway – but with Gold now trading above $1875, having plumbed the depths of the $1600’s twice in March, the question is what now? Should we be piling everything into the yellow metal ASAP?
A trading update today from tissue group Accrol (ACRL) includes “input costs already announced by the industry are increasing significantly in the near term”, whilst similar from masonry products company Forterra (FORT) includes that it “has recently started to see significant cost inflation across a wide range of categories with the strength of the recovery to date leading to some supply chain shortages”. Shares in the former are currently, at 54p, approaching 13% lower, whilst in the latter, at 288.5p, more than 1.5% higher. Hmmm…
We are now so far down the rabbit hole there is no way out
Last week I noted that the calamitous latest US jobs data had helped the yellow metal over the $1800 mark and Gold reached $1831 as the magnitude of the miss sank in. Jordan Roy-Byrne, of TheDailyGold.com had been predicting a rise to between $1825-1850 before hitting overhead resistance and this week saw inflation data pushing ever higher which was taken as a cue to sell off.
ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com has long said that he didn’t see the eventual raging bull-market in precious metals he forecasts until Gold outperforms the stock market. In recent weeks, Gold has moved nicely higher and currently sits at $1837 per oz, having plumbed the depths of the $1600s twice in March. One would be forgiven for thinking it is time for the yellow stuff to take a breather, but I just wonder…..
After a long period of going nowhere at around $1745 per oz since late February, Gold has pushed higher. Last week it was at $1770, having reached $1777 the previous week. This week the price closed at $1831 and the effect on my portfolio of Gold stocks has been very pleasing. So, as I suggested last week, sell in May would have been a mistake. So what now? Will precious metals continue the ascent in the short term, or might there be good reason to expect a reversal?
Industrial and commercial equipment company H C Slingsby (SLNG) has announced results for 2020 including “sales of £21.8m (2019: £19.6m)… profit before taxation and exceptional items of £1.1m (2019: £0.2m)”. Does this justify a current approaching 15% share price rise to 270p?…
Corpoerate financier Jim Paterson states that precious metals have become even more precious due to the massive amount of money printing. The inflation we are going to suffer in the coming years is a direct result.
Back in early February HERE I wrote ‘Barratt Developments really, really loves Help to Buy’ but had to admit that the share was going to go up a bit more. Since then the stock (BDEV) has moved a quid or so and now has a 775p stock price. So happy days for holders but, given the share price in early 2020 was only a little over 800p, is there anything left for shareholders to chase?
Gold settled last week at almost exactly $1770 per oz – down a notch from the $1777 it closed at the previous week as the effect of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (unchanged, completely predictable) wore off. And having wobbled as low as $1765 towards the end of the week, was it time to sell in May and go away?
Michael Oliver warns that the charts tell you that equity markets are topping and points out that the large leading stocks are waning in these indexes. This could be a sign of trouble and evidence of a gradual decline into a bear market. He discusses how bonds are usually inverse to equities, and they are watching for a counter-trend rally. If significant funds get nervous, they will move to treasury bonds and gold.
Gold and gold shares continued the recent northward run this past week but hit the buffers as the yellow metal attempted to get over $1800 per oz to close the week at $1777 per oz – back where it started the week. Likewise, Silver ended up almost back where it started too, but did manage to post a very modest gain to close a faction over $26 per oz.
Analyst Danielle DiMartino Booth is my sort of bird – a dry as dust Austrian economist who tells it as it is. Pointing out the elephant in the room that bulls ignore, she starts by flagging up that America is a very indebted country if one includes American households, corporations, and the national debt itself. Servicing all this debt is only possible because the Fed has been able to keep bond yields near zero.
It has been a long winter for gold, as an extended correction set in last August. But after a few weeks of going nowhere it seems as though Gold has finally exited the corrective phase and is finally on the up once again. But will it last, or are we headed for more drops?
Hello Share Crunchers. Now you may disagree, but my alarmingly long experience of watching the markets tells me that there are golden days ahead . Those who take the opposite view, and they seem numerous, believe that the money pile Whitehall has spent on subsidising working victims of the pandemic, will plunge Blighty into recession. The bears also cite a reluctance to start going out again, red tape in trading after Brexit, mounting unemployment, rising inflation and lower house prices as serious threats to share prices. Let’s take those arguments one by on.
Jerome Powell - Buzz Lightyear (QE “to infinity, and beyond”) – has been on the telly, ahead of the closed period before the next Fed interest rate meeting. The message from Fed Towers is that inflation will be transitory and that all will be well. But his interview with David Rubenstein on Bloomberg and the implications of what he had to say is a tad worrying.
Last week I noted that Gold was going nowhere fast. This week it moved fast, and quite a bit, but ended up more-or-less back where it started. This week’s action might offer some hope to gold-bulls like me, but I fancy there remains a way to go before one can be certain the selling of the past 8 months is finally over.
Two steps forward, one step back. Gold closed at $1734 per oz this week, down a tad from last week’s $1745, ending a two-week rally but the truth of it is that it has been going nowhere fast over the last two and a half weeks, as can be seen on the chart below. I guess that is better than continuing the decline.
Hello, Share Swallowers. The Bank of England has made a thrilling forecast about the economy. Well, no, it hasn’t. Instead, it’s played the ‘We just don’t know’ card. It says the economy should bounce back – the coiled spring effect – but all that depends on the pandemic. It says the future is ‘unusually uncertain.That’ll do a lot to help our trading roads maps, won’t it?
AIM-listed gold producer in Turkey Ariana Resources (AAU) this morning announced that its CEO, Kerim Sener, has been buying shares – 582,000 of them – and why not, for the company is on the verge of declaring the long-awaited Special Dividend which I reckon will be around 0.7p. At approx. 4.9p a pop, that is £28,500 worth which is substantial enough to catch my interest, but there is another thing….
Investor Michael Gentile started out during the Tech Boom’s final phases and has always taken a contrarian investment approach. He says that he has learned it’s best to get involved in a sector when it’s hated and that commodities tend to bounce between extremes of sentiment.
Wall Street veteran Peter Grandich believes that the loose monetary policy day of reckoning must come. He says, “We just past another couple trillion in money printing. This debt isn’t something that will go away; someone will pay the price and pay dearly. Servicing this debt is an issue, and the average American has no understanding of what is occurring.”
Last week I sensed that we were near the bottom of the correction in the Gold price at $1700 per oz. This week I see that Gold has risen to $1728: things are looking up! So have we finally seen off the grinding correction which started last August?
Back in August the Gold price peaked at $2063 and it has been more-or-less downhill ever since. On Friday the Gold price closed at $1700 – a 17.6% drop in around seven months. So is the Gold bull story all over? My answer is definitely no. But as a Gold Bull, I would say that, wouldn’t I!
Gold and silver have been extremely weak in recent weeks and investors, certainly retail, seem to be moving away from these metals, but I would question whether that is the right decision to make at this time.
Prepare for low interest rates for ages as bankers cannot cure the structural unemployment that is coming…
The thief in the night is selective….
It is cold at the Montana log-cabin. It’s a good job I have piled up the logs for the fire – how else would I warm up my cans of beans? And it is not just a chill blowing in from the veranda: in the markets there is a chill in precious metals as it seems everybody wants to buy junk and overpriced technology stocks. So Gold has been on a bit of a downer and despite the efforts of the Reddit short-squeezing crew, silver could not break above $30. With the yellow metal down to $1815 from its euphoric peak of $2062 last summer, has anything changed?
I start with the question of who should pay for lockdown via taxes or inflation. Then it is onto an article by Harriet Dennys in the Mail on Sunday on NightCap (NGHT), the AIM baby of Sarah Willingham of Dragon’s Den which could go bust by July. The article is so bad, so full of massive factual errors and so utterly misleading that it is easily the worst piece of financial journalism I’ve seen so far this year. And that includes articles by Zak Mir. Seriously, writing this sort of bollocks does have consequences.
The Gold price is, in my view, going to move sharply up from here. That is of course not news – I have held that view since long before the Covid crisis and the reasons for holding that view have not changed. But whilst the Covid-crisis has strengthened my views, Gold is at present not really playing ball. That will change, but for now it is simply a matter of sitting patiently.
It was all looking so rosy. The correction from $2063 which started last August seemed to have played out, a low had been put in at $1776 and recovery was well on the way as the yellow metal rose and rose again to over $1950. And then we hit a bump in the road and we’re back down to around $1830. Even ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst was taken aback by the drop: I hate to say it, but it looks as though Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com has finally got something wrong!
Money printing can have only one end point.
Asset manager Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates argues that the system has failed due to unsound money, and an immediate restructuring would be preferable. The alternative may be dragging the process out for the next twenty years. He explains the differences between today and 2008 and why we haven’t seen much increase in money velocity yet.
When I last commented on Gold I noted that it seemed to have smashed through overhead resistance at $1900-1925 but cautioned that it may turn tail again in the short term. My view was – and remains – that it will head sharply higher over the next year to eighteen months but we must await the return of the Gold Bull. Well, it seems that it has indeed turned tail – we will be waiting a little longer for the bull to reappear.
Silver Guru David Morgan says that in inflation-adjusted terms silver is near all time lows and that “90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time.” Physical demand in 2020 for silver from ETF’s has been unprecedented, and the gold-silver ratio has also outperformed. He argues that silver should continue to outpace gold, and he expects this bull run to continue for another two or three years.
I start with the new nickname for baby Jaya and why I am doubly sleep deprived. Men of my age really should not be fathering babies. Then to the great news: I have spoken to Chris Bailey and he is recovered and plans to start writing again this week. I discussed gold, inflation, market madness with Chris and relay our thoughts. Then I ask you to consider your mask-wearing habits and discuss Remote Monitored Solutions (RMS). Finally, can you top £150 for a bid for something worth 2 Euro which will not arrive for 6 months? Please do so before midnight HERE. And the reason I may need to seek asylum in England is explained HERE.
There are, once again, bubbles everywhere. US markets are at all-time highs and Japan is at a thirty-year high, according to David Scott. Government bonds (as opposed to their yields) aren’t far off all-time highs and – importantly – the returns are minimal if not negative. Traditionally, that would be a warning sign that all is not well – normally when one is high the other is low. But these are no normal times.
Gold has been rebounding. At the close of November the correction had taken it all the way down to $1760 and it had fallen from almost $1880 in the course of just eight trading sessions. Now it is back at $1880 and it looks as though the bottom of the correction has been put in. So what now?
Writer Lyn Alden looks at the economic downturn and notes that we’ve seen a rebound in some asset classes, but, she argues, that it will take most of 2021 to see all the effects play out. We’ve seen a weaker dollar and slowing GDP growth globally. By late 2021 the global economy should improve gradually.
The gamesmanship is in full play between the UK and its former EU partners. Reading the runes, it looks as though no-deal is the front runner, but you never know what may happen at half a second to midnight so I’ll wait for the fat lady to warble her final aria before giving up hope that common sense might, in the end, prevail. But if the talks fail to see a deal signed sealed and delivered, my sense is that this will prove a great reason for keeping gold-exposure high.
A few of m’learned friends amongst the ShareProphets readership are suggesting that perhaps Gold will not be the place to be for a few months. Longer dated treasury yields are rising, the equity market is still going bonkers (upwards) and, of course, we have a raft of Covid vaccines. But I’m not budging: I am hanging in there with my gold equities.
Fully listed Egyptian gold-miner Centamin (CEY) has released the promised life of asset review this morning. In the wake of ground movement troubles, this an important step in regaining investor trust. The good news is that the shares did not fall precipitously…..
It is not just Warren Buffett who comes up with great pithy comments on what is going wrong economically. The quoted line comes from @deanthespleen on Twitter and nicely sums up the economic brick wall the UK faces.
Goldman Sachs has pinned a $2,300 per oz target on Gold for 2021, saying that its bull market is not over, according to fnlondon.com, as inflation expectations will move higher, the US$ will weaken and emerging market retail demand recovers. Compared to some forecasts, this is extremely modest but a 22% gain for the yellow metal would still be significant.
Following yesterday’s very welcome news from Pfizer that its vaccine for Covid-19 has offered up over 90% protection in Phase III trials, the market went into a tizzy. Stocks such as Cineworld (CINE) which had previously been labelled as doomed soared and Gold fell off a cliff ( well it lost 5%). So is this the end of the Gold Bull-market?
Analyst David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors warns that we are now nearing the end stage of the current secular bull market in equities. He notes that markets move from excess to excess, and in the last stages, they can go parabolic. He expects a deflationary bust and a new debt liquidation cycle to begin in the first half of 2021.
Without being too rude, Malcolm Burne – Chairman of fully-listed Golden Prospect (GPM) – has seen it all before during a long career involved in gold. This morning Golden Prospect announced its interims to June which showed a 63.6% increase in net assets and a 54% increase in net assets per share – not bad for six months.
One day gold is up, the next it is down – but the overall picture is one of not going anywhere. Gold was threatening to start to rebuild a head of steam and then Donald Trump announced that fiscal stimulus talks were to be suspended until after the US elections….and gold retreated again. I’m not sure why – both sides are promising to load the country up with more debt and a new package is a certainty once the election is over…
Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com was discussing his outlook for gold with Kerry Lutz the other day, in the wake of Gold falling out of bed – and gold stocks worse so. He felt then that there was a little way to go in the current correction. But Kerry Lutz had a point…..
I have no crystal ball, so shares in Malcolm Burne’s Golden Prospect (GPM) could fall further before going up again, but I am convinced that it is now an outright buy.
Listen to Sunny Jim in 1976 and panic..
And if analyst Craig Hemke is correct, you just have to buy precious metals exposure, especially gold.
Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at ITM Trading, says that the Fed has been unable to hit its 2% inflation target but says, “The Fed is getting prepared because they expect to lose control of inflation soon.” The Fed plans to quietly introduce a cashless system with an 18 step plan early in 2021. This new system will enable the Fed to deposit money directly and will give them absolute control of their policies. This coming UBI stimulus scheme will be the fuel that starts hyperinflation fire since we are a consumer-driven economy; they have to get us to consume.
And so Buzz Lightyear “QE to Infinity and beyond” of the US Federal Reserve spoke at the virtual Jackson Hole economic summit for the great and the good of Central Banking. Reading between the lines, we can expect higher inflation but interest rates will stay low on the other side of the pond. That, of course, means that US Treasuries are set to lose investors’ money as inflation eats into the capital invested. As we all know, if the US sneezes the rest of us catch a cold, so expect the same thing this side of the pond. That was the news, but there seems to be a point that has been missed.
If you are feeling a bit low, you’d better not tune in to this one. Writer David Morgan is a bear at every level.
Politicians actually like the thief in the night. You will not unless you own gold.
There is an old joke in musical circles in the form of two questions and their answers: what is it we try to learn from the great masters (in composition) and why do we not learn it? The answers are how to get out of a hole, and because the great masters don’t get into one in the first place. And that brings me to Jackson Hole – aptly titled for head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell – where this year’s conference amongst the great and the good of Central Banking is being held virtually this year.
Economist David Rosenberg says that flattened yield curves are promoting liquidity issues, credit supply has been contracting, and the velocity of money is also declining. So, he argues, if money velocity stabilizes, we’re going to get a lot more inflation, and perhaps that is what gold is trying to signal.
Either way that has to be great for gold
I said the other day that the gold market looked like it was ready for a correction. We’ve had a big run, everything is overbought etc etc – the gold market needs to correct, to blow away the froth. The problem has been that every time it looks as though a bit of selling will settle in, more bad data emerges and off we go upwards once again. Yesterday the Fed was effectively suggesting inflation is good and interest rates will stay put at zero, Nancy Pelosi was suggesting that $600 a week cheques would not disincentivise people from returning to work, the Democrats and Repulicans are apparently homing in on another stimulus package (funded by the Fed’s money printing machine) and apparently the Fed thinks that your average American will invest in US government bonds for ten years at an interest rate of 0.5%, which is well below the inflation rate. Meanwhile the US dollar resumed its slide and gold broke through $2000. Real world vs fantasy-land.
The new economics just makes no sense at all.
Investor Chris Temple argues that in the late 70s and early 80s, the dollar was inversely correlated with gold, and the markets reflected the real economy. Today, everything is inverted, but a lot of investors and experts still have the old out-of-date mindset.
Investment analyst David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors has views that are controversial and not in any way mainstream. In terms of shares in general, David expects a rebound this summer and fall followed by another pull-back in the market. The market should rally for a few more years due to massive money printing by the Fed and central banks.
I take my hat off to Woodford dog, revolutionary washing machine maker (geddit?) Xeros (XSG). It closed Friday with a market capitalisation of about £6 million, according to ADVFN, and has just raised another £6 million without totally crashing the share price. In the current environment, that is quite an achievement – especially since the company has been a cash-burning dog all through its life. What might we learn?
Financial writer David Skarica discusses the economy and why many companies are mostly built on quicksand and debt. Excessive borrowing and inflated valuations have created additional risks. Companies have spent much of their earnings on stock buybacks which have made many companies vulnerable in a downturn. Everyone has borrowed and many are over-leveraged and now we see the hidden consequences of all that borrowing.
The technical analyst community is frothing a little over this chart as it offers a pretty strong bull signal for gold enthusiasts. The thing causing the excitement is an inverted head and shoulders, suggestig upside ahead, on the chart of Gold Futures. Note the break of that line at $1680 this past week: I gather the upside target is around $1880 per ounce.....IF ths follows the textbook. That's a big "if", though.
Investor Lawrence Lepard claims that people are gradually waking up to what is happening. Governments can’t create credit forever without consequence, and we are now witnessing the end of that system. In the space of only six weeks, we have seen stunning moves and government actions. Eventually, people will consider currency to be an inadequate means of storing wealth.
As everything crashes and burns in the markets there is one asset - gold - which has managed to keep its head above water. At the end of last week it looked as though we were on the edge of another significant move higher, and then markets had a big sell-off and gold was tramped down again. But the week just ended has seen gold recover and have another go at breaking out, putting in an 8-year end-of-week high.
Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com continues to be uber-bullish on gold and precious metals in general, even if he always seems to be a short-term bear. His latest thoughts can be found HERE and HERE and perhaps suggest that he was a little too bearish as gold corrected from last year’s race higher. But his market calls have been spot on since I started following his commentary and with a latest call that stockmarkets are in for a correction we should sit up and take notice. Unfortunatey, he does not see gold taking out the 2019 high any time soon, however.
Hello, Share Scrimpers. Opening a letter from one of my brokers I discovered that a company I’d long given up on was paying me a special dividend of 6p a share. As I only hold 13 shares apparently, I benefit by 78p. I wish there was a way of getting rid altogether, but to sell this piddling number of shares would probably cost me much more than I’d get back.
Fund Manager Lawrence Lepard argues that inflation is in the process of returning, and the Fed is losing credibility. More people realize that the money system itself is terrible. Unlimited credit is a temporary solution to regular markets, and the end-point of this process could be hyper-inflation. He believes investors will begin to chase gold as the broader markets are likely not headed to new highs. The technical picture for gold is looking good. Commodities are very cheap right now while stocks are almost certainly over-priced.
Entrepreneur Lior Gantz claims that the outlook for Gold and Silver is improving dramatically. His thesis is that recent market action has resulted in a rebound. In September mining stocks hit 52-week lows, and the regular markets are now entering bear market territory. Inflation is on the rise and many states are hiking their minimum wage. Recent US Dollar strength is actually a bearish sign.
A few things seem to be happening all at the same time which, for a bear, look as though markets may be set to reward those of a more negative persuasion. This week saw the Dow sliding below 24,000 again, gold spurted higher to just under $1350, Donald Trump looks set to cause a trade war, the EU and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are at loggerheads and at home it seems bumper pay increases for the public sector, which we can’t afford, are the order of the day. All this against a backdrop of threats to raise interest rates.
I say in the bearcast that it is the 20th. Apologies. Alzheimer's again. I know it is the 25th. The P in MV=PT is inflation and unless you have been buying into asset bubbles over the past few years you may not have noticed how huge it has been. But now it is working its way into the real mainstream economy and that will impact corporate earnings and also base rates. How exposed are you? SP50 is the promo code you use to book a free investor class ticket at www.UKInvestorShow.com/tickets TODAY. I explain why you really must come along with a preview of some of what is going to take place. Book NOW!
Ignore what Ed Karr says about ramping his own stocks. What he says about inflation, a word unfamiliar to younger readers, is of real note. In this podcast from Palisade Capital, Karr discusses how you need to time the market cycles correctly. Gold is currently catching a pretty good bid, particularly with the recent dollar decline. We have seen an increase in volatility recently, and things are looking pretty good for precious metals. We could break through the 1350 level this year, and 2018 is shaping up to be an excellent year for gold.
Hello, Share Piggies. So I was correct, for a change. The big one-day 1100 point drop in the Dow has almost been mopped up by steadily improving US share prices. It’s nearly always the same down-and-up pattern. Unless we get a real share crash, which this wasn’t.
Hello, Share Monkeys. As this stupendous website’s raging bull, I feel it my duty to put the recent Wall Street-induced crash into perspective. In my view, based on long experience, there’s no need to be concerned. I’ve seen it all before - many times.
Hello Share Mashers. After a lot of research and getting three-quarters of the way through a blistering piece on a firm which services other companies, I suddenly had a feeling that the shares would struggle to rise. I was unable to pin down creeping doubt, after my initial enthusiasm, but I abandoned the tip, anyway. Four hours work up the spout! But that’s the worth of this splendid website. We writers like to think we say stuff with real value and integrity. What's a few hours wasted, if we stand a better chance of making you some money? So instead I commend for your further attention a keep-fit enterprise.
Hello Share Trackers. From time to time, I’ve suggested you peek at the giant drinks firm Diageo (DGE). The reasons I usually rehearse are basic. The world seems to be on a strengthening booze trail. And if the world’s economy is due a massive correction, as everybody seems to fear, people seem to seek solace in more drinking.
Hello, Share Trudgers. Following my less-than-enthusiastic article on Morrisons (MRW) yesterday, I now turn a jaundiced eye on its rival Sainsbury (SBRY).
Hello, Share Washers. For most of the many years I’ve traded shares, I’ve avoided any company that sells carpets. That’s because there is an extremely long-running trend to ditch wall-to-wall floor coverings (so fashionable in the sixties) in favour of more attractive and hygienic polished floorboards.
Hello, Share Sorters. Sellers of clothing are not flavour of the month at the mo. That honour seems to fall on miners and oilers, as commodity values and the oil price goes up. Share-shifters are now concerned that consumer spending power may falter in the wake of inflation and consumer debt.
Hello, Share Puzzlers. What do you think might be the results of Marks & Spencer (MKS) for the second quarter of its year? If you are a long-time holder, you will not be very excited. I first bought this share at least 20 years ago. It was 300p a throw, quite a lot of money, then. Yet despite a huge devaluation of the pound and inflation the share is still only 349p today.
It is my son's first birthday today - how time flies! I start with a look at inflation. It is back! And the greed of the lazy public sector workers (demonstrated clearly HERE) will fuel it which means interest rate rises ahoy. I suggest this has clear implications you should not ignore. Then I take a detailed look at IQE (IQE),its last results,investor perceptions and explain why I believe that the shares at 131p are a very poor risk reward play for the bulls like Comrade Stacey.
Hello, Share Takers. I’m not a great fan of Greggs (GRG) the baker. I rather disapprove of the sugary confections you see in its shop windows. This may be because of my dodgy teeth. But they do a very wholesome seeded loaf which is a mainstay of this family’s kitchen.
Hello, Share Bangers. There’s little doubt about it the good ship Shareland is entering very spooky waters. At any time now, the bull market will suddenly turn into a bear that will charge around the china shop. Mixed metaphors a speciality!
Hello, Share Cinchers. It’s been a while since I last commended British Land (BLND) to you. I don’t regret that, though the share was falling at the time and has yet to really rebound. The company deals in what they are not making any more of and it owns it around the UK, including where it’s most costly: London.
Hello Share Pippers. That incorrigible pessimist Uncle Tom has argued on this starry website that the election result is dire for business. So we can expect our portfolios to lose value from now on? I think not. Here are my reasons why a hung parliament is actually good for business.
Hello Share Mashers. It’s going to be a scary end to the week. What if Labour gets in? The Big City won’t like that and shares will dive heavily. But that will be a short-lived shocker, in my view. Because Jezzer in power will cause the pound to fall even lower. And that more than anything is keeping the Footsie at record highs.
Hello Share Tweakers. If I were an investor in Associated British Foods (ABF) I would be getting a little nervous at the moment. It processes and sells food and has the very different business of Primark, the budget clothes stores. You’ve probably discovered that these shops are often stuffed with customers as their prices can be remarkably low.
Everyone who attended this month’s UK Investor Show will be wondering whether to go into cash. Most analysts on the stage, as opposed to big cheeses supporting their own companies, were in a pessimistic mode. For example, that excellent commentator David Scott (Dr Doom) did a very scary presentation exclusively on the subject of forthcoming market disaster.
This podcast from Palisade follows E.B. Tucker recently attending a conference promoting the housing market, where there seemed to be a lot of interest and several big name speakers. He thinks this is an indication of where we are, as the housing market is cyclical the time to buy real estate was several years ago. Returns in real estate are likely to be remain low. If you're interested you could look at regions with growth, like Brazil where they have better demographics.
Hello Share Trundlers. It’s only with extreme caution that I commend any British banks to your eagle eye, having lost a stack of my own money on them even since 2007. But I am rather more hopeful about all of the big British ones now.
Hello Share Takers. Normally, I commend shares your researches might show are worth buying. I consider I have a bit of an obligation to be bullish on companies which might deserve it, to act as some kind of balance towards the many firms that Uncle Tom and the gang so skilfully warn you about.
Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is one of my heros and his latest podcast reminds us all why we need material gold exposure in the months that lie ahead. Inflation is back!
Hello Share Toppers. Allow me to take a tiny break from recommending stocks which could soar to another figure which is on the increase. And that’s inflation, which has risen for the fourth month in a row. How will this trend affect our shares?
First trading update of my (long) tip of the year for 2017 and the shares are down 4%. Worried? Of course not…the Whitbread (WTB) share price is still nicely above where I recommended it…and frankly we are not even a month into the year. The magnitude of the move today reflects the (to use a wonderful phrase poached from a fellow market observer) wildebeest financial market backdrop we have at the moment…
A “Pre-Close Trading Update” announcement from Secure Trust Bank (STB) sees the company note that “a year of excellent progress ended with a very busy and productive final quarter… anticipates the full year results will be in line with market expectations… (with) substantial capital resources”. However, of possibly greater interest are the wider points on its market and the economy that the UK bank makes…
Hello Share Squirters. The Footsie keeps on rising. Allowing for the usual Santa Rally, one wonders why? After all, as Uncle Tom keeps saying, the world is overloaded with debt and many big countries, like Italy, France and Spain, have shaky economies. There seems no obvious reason for shares to bloom.
Hello Share Carollers. Despite Wild Rides’ consistent scepticism, I still favour investing in all of the four biggest banks at the mo. The recent rallies of Barclays (BARC) RBS (RBS) Lloyds(LLOY) and the Honkers Bonkers (HSBA) surely support this view.
Gold fell sharply after the victory of Donald Trump. But that was an over-reaction says the world's best known precious metals investor, Sprott. It explains the short and long term case for the yellow metal better than I can. Over to Sprott:
Hello Share Creepers. I’ve just had a kitchen and a bathroom fitted out. As it isn’t likely to be done again, I chose the most expensive tiles, snazzy worktops, a bath made from steel not plastic and a posh shower screen. Which brings me to today’s suggestion for your further exploration: Howden Joinery (HWDN).
Hello Share Troopers. United Utilities Group (UU.) is Britain’s biggest water supplier. But the shares have fared worse than most this month. And while many Footsie giants have recovered after the Brexit vote, this stock which rose sharply after the vote is now dragging its feet. Yet there is no important reason to single it out as a loser, in my humble opinion.
Many people wonder how it’s possible that so much money is being created without runaway inflation. Mining entrepreneur Lior Gantz believes it’s because the other side of the equation is deflation. The system is causing deflation in the private sector and inflation in the government sector. This creates a huge battle between inflation and deflation.
In Rome on Thursday, in the very same room where the famous treaty was signed in 1957, Martin Schultz, president of the European Parliament, complained that ‘we have a lot of salesmen in the European Council and only a few statesmen’. The problem with the idea of one EU state and one vision was and is an illusion. The 28 nation block lacks leadership and is descending into petty, nationalistic political trends being exacerbated by mass immigration and poor fiscal disciplines.
I am a dry as dust Austrian economist. So I could not agree more with Ronald Peter-Stoeferle as he explains how inflation is going to explode. That, of course is one reason to buy gold shares.
In the glow of the US jobs number on Friday (don't hold your breath for a quick interest rate rise in my view)...let's get back to some realities: the S&P 500 index is struggling to decisively break the 2,000 index point level. Looking longer term, I look back to 1500 for charting evidence that inflation – and thus rate rises – will come back before that long.
We are facing deflation in the UK. At the moment, the rate of inflation keeps on kicking in below the Bank of England's target of 2%. It's now not expected to exceed that barrier until 2017 at the earliest.