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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Cake Box is NOT another Patisserie Holdings but it looks a stonking red flag & macro short

I start witha few words on Oxford Cannabinoid (OCTP).I have not said fill your boots nor should you. The issue here is management allegedly lining their own pockets ahead of corporate action which they know all about. One should not buy shares in such companies. Then I reflect on an excellent piece by Maynard Paton on Cake Box (CBOX) which you can read HERE. I comment on some of the excellent points he makes but add in half a dozen of my own, notably comparing boasted net cash and net interest costs but also the shameful CEO pump and dump and the macro headwind given the demographic of its end user base. This is probably not another Patisserie Valerie but at 320p it is a stonking short.

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ESNT

Essentra – shares further ahead on trading update, further corporate excitement potential?

Components and (currently) Packaging and Filters company Essentra (ESNT) has announced fourth quarter like-for-like revenue up 12.7% on the prior year (+11.1% v. Q4 2019) and that it “expects to deliver FY 2021 operating profit in the range of analysts’ forecasts” (£80.7m-£84.3m) and “order book trends remain strong”. The shares are now 340p, a just shy of £1 billion market cap, but is there still further to go here?

SWG

Buy Shearwater Group

Shares in cyber security group Shearwater (SWG) are down from more than 200p reached early last summer and more than 140p as recently as November to currently 99p to buy. There is clear trading expectations risk, but also reasons for optimism that the shares will spark again and they now look a risk/reward Buy.

AAU

Ariana Resources – 2021 production update, “fantastic” 2022 ahead?

Ariana Resources (AAU) has announced 2021 production from the 23.5%-owned Kiziltepe mine in Turkey and “with value upside evident across all arms of the company, 2022 is set to be a fantastic year for Ariana”. Well maybe. A lot clearly depends on the gold price but we do think that a) 2022 will be a good year and b) that is not discounted in the curremt share price.

SEED

Seed Innovations – investee company updates, Buy

Seed Innovations (SEED) has announced a further investee company update, helping the shares up to a current 7.4p to buy. So what’s the latest news?

PREMIUM CONTENT

The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #125

Grab a cup of tea, sit back, and test your knowledge against the other ShareProphets members. Write your score in the comments, there are no prizes, and most important of all – no Googling!

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Sunday Long Reads: Agents of Doom, Bitcoin Manipulation, Undercover Married Cops, Centipede, Captain Cook

Here are five long reads that have nothing to do with shares. Put the kettle on, find a comfy chair. You have the time, don’t you? 
 

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Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending 22 January 2022

These are the most-read articles and most listened-to Bearcasts of the week. The most-read non-Tom, non tip-of-the-year is Is it time for me to sell my Barclays shares by Chris Bailey.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Scottish Power really are shysters and the 2 name changes that threw me at Advance Energy

I start with the dire customer service from Scottish Power which is scamming me here at the Welsh Hovel. What to do? Then I am disppointed that none of you could Sherlock ADM Energy (ADME) and its latest fake sheikh. Then, sorry Gary, back to Advance Energy (ADV) and its history with this fine website as Andalas and as CEB Resources, the pumpers (Zak Mir, flip flop Ben Turney, and Justin the Clown), the villains (Dave Whitby) and the lessons. Finally I explain why those predicting financial armageddon are, all of a sudden so plausible, but are wrong, or at least are over-egging the pudding.

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CMCX

PREMIUM CONTENT

CMC Markets should be starting to benefit from increased volatility and is too cheap - recovery buy

I always find it hard to buy shares where I see fundamental good value and where I am intending to hold them as an actual investment rather than just a short term trade based on momentum.

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