Two are mega ramps and their valuations are insane and Waseem Shakoor is (rightly) short. The other one is one he owns. Which do you think is the value play? Here's what Waseem tweets:
The old goat has turned over a new leaf and today really sticks it to Blancco Technology (BLTG) in which he admits he has a trivial holding. I doff my hat to Lawson for that and his comments on the ShareSoc blog are spot on. Personally this company's revenue recognition policies stink so much that I'd have to rate it as a sell.
Once again Tim Martin of JD Wetherspoon (JDW) is the hero of the day exposing the lies, for that is what they are, spouted by big business and the dishonest media on the subject of Brexit. Martin lets rip in his company's latest trading statement. A true hero writes:
This is not perfect. But it's not a disaster. Far from it. You really would have to expect a small placing from Concepta (CPT) though after this statement.
As an investor who has always been a big fan of oil and gas plays in general it is difficult not to focus on that particular sector at the moment, given the recovery that we have been seeing there. Some people may argue that the move has already happened and that oil prices might not go much above the $64 level that we have hit this week, and could well finish the year a fair bit lower – certainly somewhere in the high 50s wouldn’t surprise me, although a lot will revolve around the outcome of the OPEC meeting at the end of the month. Whilst that may be the case with the commodity itself, when it comes to equities many have lagged this commodity correction, and given the share price action of some of them, you could be forgiven for thinking that oil was still down in the doldrums and completely unloved.
The last time I wrote about Imperial Brands (IMB) HERE, there were a few overly excitable comments made. As noted last time, I have never smoked but have no moral hang-up to investing in the sector. If you do...then I guess you have stopped reading or I look forward to your comments. Anyhow, since my original piece the stock is slightly down but only by a percent or two and full year preliminary numbers highlight an improving second half of the year showing a touch of revenue and EPS growth.
Plastered all over the telly for the past couple of days have been revelations from the Paradise Papers, the stack of documents reviewed by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists as a major follow-on to the Panama Papers.
A “Trading Update” announcement yesterday from attractions design, production and fit-out company Paragon Entertainment (PEL) included news of project delays and increased costs – and house broker finnCap (them again) has downgraded forecasts…
Hello, Share Throwers. They tell me that shopping centres are not in favour as much as they used to be. Perhaps it’s because we’re beginning to adopt the irritating American habit of calling them malls. But it’s more likely to be the advance of internet selling. However, the public will never abandon the strong British pastime of real shopping. And so I believe the present level of popularity will hold fast and may even improve. And it will if we ever, as a society, find ourselves with more leisure time. Technology hasn’t done the trick so far, but it might do.
Of course when I was a crony capitalist I spent a couple of years in the Isle of Man with its progressive tax system. That was all legit, it is called tax avoidance (legal) not tax evasion (illegal) but it is clear that the IOM facilitates a stack of illegal tax evasion. I am not shocked by the Paradise Papers revelations on this and explain why. Elsewhere there is follow on work on Totally (TLY) looking at more red flags and the vanity of sales, then coverage of Red Emperor (RMP) and P:aragon Entertainment (PEL)
Still no statement from AIM-listed Rurelec (RUR) with regard to the potential offer from a consortium led by former boss Peter Earl which may or may not involve IEH Limited. Or was it InterEnergy Holdings. But just as my last piece went out, we got this….
I have been greatly puzzled by the slide in the share price of Totally (TLY). The shares are now 36p valuing this enterprise at c £22 million. Something's not right. Time to crunch a few numbers...
On 11 October AIM-listed Rurelec (RUR) put out an announcement regarding a possible offer led by former head honcho Peter Earl and involving a company which was named as IEH Limited which may or may fund the deal. Yesterday a company called InterEnergy Holdings said that it thinks it was the company referred to as IEH Limited, and that it has no intention of making as offer – and there is no comment at all from Rurelec.
Cynical Bear suggested last week that all was not well with the attempted fundraising by Tern plc (TERN) principal investment Device Authority. Not surprising really, since the funding round is being conducted at a whopping premium to the value of Tern’s holding implied by its share price - investors who were convinced would be better off simply buying Tern stock. He also wondered what has happened to Tern’s investment in new portfolio member InVMA, into which Tern was supposed to be pumping a further £250,000 by 31 October. It is now November 7th and there has been no update. Why?
Nighthawk (HAWK) is out of cash, drowning in debt, burning cash and its production is falling month on month and that trend is not changing. In plain English it is 100% fecked. Today we have news of a massive boardroom resignation. We offer up a ShareProphets translation service
Rick Rule of Sprott argues that there is capital misallocation on locating and extracting gold from the ground. Precious metals historically have been the most volatile part of the resource market. Reasons for this include the narrative around gold and silver being more interesting than say that of copper and coal. There is an allure to it. Thus there is a flaw in the way investors think. Investors that focus on precious metals likely do themselves a disservice.
Strat Aero (AERO) is quite clearly insolvent. That its shares have not been suspended pending clarification is just another badge of shame for the world's most successful growth market, that is to say the AIM Casino. Today sees another pathetic attempt to sucker in mug punters to try to pump this worthless stock ahead of another bailout placing.
Beaufort Securities is house broker to AIM-listed Concepta (CPT) so you may prefer to take what follows with a pinch of salt. Also worthy of note is that it is owned by FIML (which is owned by a trust for Tom Winnifrith’s dependents) and just to keep Tom Winnifrith happy, here is what Beaufort has to say on yesterday’s disappointing Trading and Order update which he covered in yesterday’s Bearcast when he suggested waiting for the placing expected to follow before piling in.
Though down from more than 15p in Summer 2016, shares in Grafenia (GRA) have recently risen from 7p in July to more than 10p. However, they are currently heading back towards the latter following the company’s half-year report for the period ended 30th September 2017…
Even large, FTSE-100 shares can go through periods where seemingly every piece of news brings about a decline in the share price, and the company seems to be hit by one negative revelation after another. But as long as there isn’t anything wrong with the underlying business, then often these are just temporary blips and can offer the sort of recovery opportunities, and potential returns, that you don’t see often with outfits of this size.
In this bonus podcast prompted by recent events at African Potash (AFPO) and ADVFN (AFN) I look back on other bouts of market insanity. There was the radio boom of the 1920s and the dot com boom of 1999-2001 but is the blockchain bubble at 1999, 2000 or 2001? Among the companies also mentioned are On Line (ONL), Vela (VELA), Milestone Group (MSG) and Coinsilium (COIN), where we have a small holding. Madness, my friends, is in the air.
Last month the Jupiter Merlin group which, at one point, had £942 million invested in funds managed by Neil "nomates" Woodford announced that it was pulling out its last monies. Now another big investment group has given up on Britain's most self important fund manager. Aviva, one of the largest savings providers in Britain, has had enough.
Shares in Angus Energy (ANGS) have plunged by 36% to 17.125p today after news from the Lidsey Field which cannot be described as anything other than disappointing. Hope meets reality. At some stage the same process will see shares in UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) crash. Let's start with Angus.
Malcolm outlines a strategy today for playing AIM Casino stocks which I regard as folly. I explain why it could go disastrously wrong in two ways. Then I look at the wider asset bubble in relation to art, soccer players, real estate and new media and how that impacts on the stockmarket and will, in due course, implode.
I start this podcast with a look at Carillion (CLLN) where I wonder if Steve's damning verdict HERE is just a bit too generous. The boy is too much of a nice guy for his own good. Then it is onto the FRC which will be writing to 40 AIM and Small Cap companies ahead of them publishing FY numbers. I have a few ideas who and on what areas. The FRC are of course the UK's best regulator if only for recognising the work of the UK's top investigative financial journalist. Then I look at Angus Energy (ANGS) and finally there is a detailed discussion on MySquar (FRAUD)
Whilst many private investors go chasing rainbows and hoping for one of their oil and gas exploration plays to hit black gold, there are actually a number of AIM listed outfits which are already producing, yet don’t seem to be as popular as they are unlikely to generate large share price rises overnight.
I know sweet FA about GCM Resources (GCM) so you are on your own on this one. It has just announced an Underwritten Fundraise, to raise up to £2 million at a subscription price of 34.4p per Ordinary Share - via Primary Bid. This represents a discount of 20% to the closing mid price on Friday, 17 November, 2017. You can sign up and take part, if you wish, HERE
This is the time of year when I ask you to consider making a small donation to ensure that folks far less fortunate than we all are enjoy some real joy this Christmas. Woodlarks is a charity with whom I have worked for years. It provides a one-off service: full holiday acccomodation for those so severely disabled that they would otherwise not get such a break.
Once a year the Mrs allows me to give a lecture to her sociology students at Bath Spa University. Around 70 attended and and I did not hold back. My lecture was recorded as were the slides. Enjoy!
I suggested last week that the time had come for oil stock promotion UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) to come clean about its financial position and update the market on where it stood on its flow testing at Broadford Bridge. I suggested the shares were a sure fire short at 4.6p.
Carillion (CLLN) topped the top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2017 (recent performance update HERE) and remained so in our Autumn update HERE. Having commenced the year above 235p, the shares had slid below 200p before a July profit warning, business review and Chief Executive “stepped down” announcement. They are currently down from above 40p to below 30p today on the back of an “Update” announcement…
Hello Share Pinchers. There are times while trading shares when one can consider suspending logic. One mistake a short-term trader can make is to expect strong balance sheets to always send share prices flying. Successful investors have a secret which is now’t to do with a firm’s fundamentals.
Actually I am in Greece on December 4 or at least on my way home after the olive harvest. But, in return for a small donation to Woodlarks, I have agreed to record a video from the Greek Hovel with a few market thoughts and a couple of share tips for Christmas.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
React Group (REAT) admitted last week that it would miss forecasts for the year to 30th September. It states that the unaudited numbers show revenue of around £2.65 million and a pre-tax loss of around £400,000.
This entertaining farce (for the neutral at least) at BOS Global (BOS) moved on a step yesterday with the ex-CEO, Michael Travia, making his move to give him a shot at the assets, most notably the 40% stake In Call Design, but I’m not convinced that it will be as easy as he hopes.
I don’t think I’ve covered 3i Group (iii) before. For one thing, it’s an unattractive brand name, not meaning anything obvious. Secondly, it invests in companies, which we, as canny share shifters, are capable of doing on our own. Then our money is not eaten away by administration costs. But this company is now bowling along and you may want to consider climbing aboard.
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