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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast Quindell - Vindication, defiance, apology, analysis

By Tom Winnifrith | Monday 30 March 2015


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


At one level a triumph. Quindell threatened me with libel action becuase I accused it over overstating its profits ahead of and after its rescue bailout in November 2013. I accused it of fraud. It has today said those profits will be restated. It thus raised money on a fraudulent prospectus and folks should go to jail. Those who bought at 660p+ on the basis of those bogus, fraudulent profits and other lies should be demanding that Rob Terry be prosecuted becuase they will never get that money back.

On the other hand the shares will not go to 0p so an apology. Quindell admits - as I asserted - that without the Slater & Gordon deal it is bust. But S&G is committing corporate hari kiri. I look at where its shares are going (down) and where Quenron will head from here.

My critics seem to think it would be a good thing if I retired. I have a clear message for them. In exposing fraud and lies at Quindell I am now vindicated. I have numerous other AIM Casino scalps over the past two years and I want more. And so I shall continue to go after your pals the fraudsters including the uber serial criminal Mr Robert Simon Terry.


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More on QPP


Comments

39 comments


  1. Paul collison

    Really surprised at the huge bid by Slater and Gordon but glad all the share holders at quindell won’t lose all their money. It wouldn’t be good for AIM for people to take that sort of hit and for that money to leave the casino.

    As for getting it right Tom you have saved me from losing loads on blinkx and coms so very grateful for that, I have learnt a lot from this website in the last year, keep it up.


  2. David Talbot

    Hi Tom

    Investing in shares is not an exact science – it is subject to uncertainty and (particularly for the benefit of the LSE asylum) there is no way you can get everything, precisely accurate. Overall, your record on Shareprophets shows you are doing an excellent job and providing a very valuable service in exposing wrong doing, in the face of self-interested and uninformed opposition. Keep up the good work.

  3. It was great and outstanding analysis work you did on uncovering the fraud at QPP and I dont think you have anything to apologise for . You uncovered the fraud and are totally vindicated by the contents of the RNS . The fact that daft Australians are prepared to grossly overpay for a division of QPP is not of your doing ………. more fool them . No doubt their shares will plummet on renewed trading and then get shorted with some intensity . The morons too easily forget the share consolidation of QPP shares that took place and state views on only the post consolidation price moves . Memories are short in that respect . Those that lost on the recent “short sold” moves can just move their short to the purchaser . The chickens will come home to roost eventually ……….. at least those that escaped the fox on the way home. The vast majority of longs in from the beginning that sold on your first uncovering of tangible evidence of substantial fraud saved an absolute fortune in relative terms . I count myself in that bracket . I have not held QPP shares since selling out at the aforementioned time , so have no current axe to grind regarding todays announcement and for the record I have never short sold the share .

  4. Are you sure C Green didn’t mean the real Titus Oates: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titus_Oates
    Captain Lawrence “Titus” Oates was a hero and “Titus” was just a nickname.

  5. Great bearcast Tom and thanks for making time to comment last night too. I think your forensic analyses of Quindell’s dodgy accounts have been well vindicated – well done.
    I’ll let you off your misjudgement about the deal going through because of all the money I’ve made following your other short recs like Afren !
    And quite apart from your tips I’ve learned a hell of a lot from you over the last year. Many thanks.

  6. can someone with an account on LSE go on and rip the piss out of that TWGweenyteeth idiot…….if you notice he posts nothing of substance and is on the top posters list…..and has been for some time……..yet as of late, not even his brigade of merry men have even responded to any of his pointless threads……all he posts is “vile woman bully” etc. fkn etc……I’ve been banned so many times (by the ramp’astic brigade) clicking Report that I’ve run out of hotmail accounts


  7. zeronegative

    It amusing to see them jumping for joy when in reality they are stuck in a share worth £1.50-£1.70.

    Why would anyone buy when you could wait several months and pick up far more shares when the price falls to 30-40p when the dividend is paid out. Some seem to think the price will stay at these levels AND they get a £1 bonus.

    Unbelievable!

  8. There is no investment case for Quindell, there maybe in the future, who knows, but at the moment no.

    People had a chance to get out, they make their own choices. To understand the benefit of something, consider the circumstance without it. Quindell would have ramped into double figures, and then one morning it would be gone. That happened at Polly Peck, it was over 20 years before shareholders found out what happened to their money.

    You did well with this, ok so its not 0p, yet.

    I’m still short in Quindell

  9. lol at calling quindell a scalp

    listing prices are the start points not all time highs. asset sale for £1 a share divi and the company leftover will prob be valued at the price it listed in 2011, making the divi pure profit. if you had it in nifty fifty you’d be calling yourself a god right now

    TW note: If Id said sell at 650, 550, 450 , 350 I;d be calling myself a god. Oh - Yes I did say that. You and other arses were buying at 650,550, 450.350 and you think you are smart?

  10. “The Company proposes to use a majority of the cash to fund a substantial return of capital to its Shareholders”.
    What will this do to the share price?

  11. Wolfy

    sorry cant help ……….. I have a lifetime LSE ban ……… for saying that the Moderator lady ( who banned me previously for a week) had delusions of granduer and should be chained to the radiator in the basement of LSE Towers until she repented .

  12. Tom

    This is interesting, PwC report wont be made available for scrutiny! Is that possible?

    http://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/quindell-name-likely-to-change-following-slater-and-gordon-deal/1413349.article


  13. Dominic Cooper

    They all think on the LSE asylum that their shares will not only be valued at £2.00 (or £6.00 or £18.00), but that they will remain with the same value after the interim divi is paid. One moron even said words to the effect of “you do know a share is valued by taking its last years earnings and multiply it by a factor, so why would a cash dividend affect this?”

    Of course the irony is that it is valued at the heady heights of £1.46 – a massive SIX percent up since Friday and at levels not seen since, er, October. Indeed at the beginning of October last year it was worth £1.70. They’ve lost what they call half of their business – in reality 95% of their business – and it is only back to what it was before Rob Terry got caught with his trousers down in the basement of EFH’s offices. Unless you’ve bought in after October 2014 or averaged down, there’s nothing to be shouting about for the QPP loons.

    It may be churlish at this stage to point out that Uber Morons such as the cretinous QVC3M and AggressiveScouser were saying that they would reject any offer under £1.2billion…

    This is undoubtedly a win for Tom IMHO. As said above, without the relentless exposure of facts, Gotham would have been discredited, Mug PIs would have been spoonfed shares, the ramperoony would have continued, they’d have probably done another placing this April to pay the bills (and bribe their moronic shareholders by giving them their own money back as an interim divi), and the eventual losses much, much, much greater than anything seen before.


  14. Russ O'Callaghan

    I can’t find any reference now to either of these questions because for some bizarre reason the Slater and Gordon site on Google Finance only has news bulletins from the Worcester and Malvern Gazette or something like that!
    My questions though…
    Didn’t Slater and Gordon say something last week about THEIR shareholders getting a vote about this deal’s viability?
    And,
    Have they made any reference so far about how and where THEY are getting the money together to fund this?
    This has got all the makings of an HBoS fiasco as far as I can see.

  15. To be fair TW did say on several occasions that there may be some value in QPP (around 40p I think) assuming they did not go bust first. An so they nearly did, evidenced by the fact that they had to sell their NARS shares this month at a massive discount and a loss. Rob Terry didn’t think they were worth much more than 40p either as he bailed out at around that price.

    Something tells me QPP shareholders shouldn’t count their chickens yet. There could be a sting in the tail ,or two.

    TW has largely got the measure of QPP except for the 0p bit.

  16. S+G are financing with A$375m of debt. The balance is from an underwritten 2 for 3 rights type arrangement. Being ASX it’s all a bit different. All the releases and a presentation can be found on ASX. http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/SGH

    It appears to me that S+G do not need to put it to THEIR shareholders.

    Would be interesting to know how much S+G value their UK ambulance chasing operation cf the purchase price for the Quindell business. Also how much impact this has on S+G’s prudent expansion and financing model.

  17. Ah, ZeroCred, I see you’re still here.

    I was worried you’d thrown yourself off a bridge for YET AGAIN coming a cropper when you nominated me for moron of the week. Who are your sources ZeroCred, the voices in your head, because it turns out my sources, real people, were correct?

    I seem to have missed your apology to me, could you repost it again old chap? Thanks


  18. DUCK AND DIVE

    Tom, you have clearly been vindicated. And you may yet be proved right about 0p in the twists and turns that lie ahead.

  19. This bears repeating from Dominic Cooper:

    This is undoubtedly a win for Tom IMHO. As said above, without the relentless exposure of facts, Gotham would have been discredited, Mug PIs would have been spoonfed shares, the ramperoony would have continued, they’d have probably done another placing this April to pay the bills (and bribe their moronic shareholders by giving them their own money back as an interim divi), and the eventual losses much, much, much greater than anything seen before.

  20. Tom

    Thank your for you post and hard work.


  21. filthy lucre

    Tom You are obsessed with Rob Terry. Why? We’d love to know the real
    reason. He has taken a back seat at Quindell. He is not on the board. Get over it.


  22. filthy lucre

    Tom

    How is John Hempton going to sell SGH in the morning? Slaters shares are suspended
    until Thursday.

  23. The interim dividend will not make quindell an attractive short proposition. So it’s fair to assume they will exit soon. That said quindell might still have the capacity to surprise. I agree £6.00 is a distant illusion. But £2.50 – £3 is a viable outcome if serious telematics deals emerged. And as this saga finally closes I agree with you entirely that RT has some serious explaining to do.

  24. All things being equal…the RSI today sits at 81.47………so the short is in the tech…..it’s going down as of tomorrow morning…..overbought and down on this mornings opening since gap up over weekend due to ramp…..but the morons don’t see that it was down on this mornings opening price – Open 169.75….Closes at 145 or thereabouts…to me….that’s a bad day at the office…..!….unless another carefully worded herd enticing confucious RNS is released which wil blow the tech out of it….!


  25. JustCurious

    Tom

    There are others you definitely owe an apology to. In particular I would highlight the undeserved abuse which you directed to the new directors, Mr Rose and Mr Sutcliffe, who have performed admirably in their roles. I would also flag the ridicule you heaped on the author of the Betaville blog, whose predictions have been vindicated by events.

    Waseem showed his integrity in recognising both in his mea culpa, I expect the same from you now.

  26. Akcsl you whimpering creep, dry your eyes and get back to your job of reporting posts on LSE
    Unlucky with you sell attempt this morning, locked in again then eh? Never mind I’m sure you will hit the number one recommended poster slot for daily ranting about Tom/shareprophets soon. You post such vile shite I’m surprised you haven’t reached there already.


  27. Daniel Victor

    Unsure if the deal can be de-railed,but if it can,Slater’s price quickly falling below the placing level of A$ 6.37 might be one thing that could do it.Okay,the placing s underwritten – but that would be the shareholders telling Slaters what they thought with their feet.,and Slaters wouldn’t want the shares being left with the underwriters.


  28. alcira16247

    Tom

    As the dust settles, the overwhelming consensus seems one of mystery as to why S & G seem to have ‘rushed’ into paying such a full price for QLS, especially as most observant commentators concluded Quindell were struggling cash wise and thus vunerable to being squeezed hard!

    I note, your colleague, Dan McCrum is questioning the logic behind this astounding announcement, too, aligning himself to many posters here on ShareProphets, voicing their scepticism.

    Hence, there can be no doubt that had S & G walked away, Quindell would have faced the exact scenario, you have been predicting for months, Tom!

    Slater and Gordon have literally saved Quindells bacon by making this generous offer.

    However, who would bet that this the final chapter in the Quindell saga?

    P.S.

    Can I just mention….. ‘Dominic Cooper’ has written some brilliant posts, today! Many thanks, DC

  29. Now that Quindell is in such rude financial health, do I assume we can expect a RNS soon stating that they have reverted to paying their employees in the month in which they actually did the work? And to paying their suppliers in the year in which they actually provided the services?

  30. Tom, am a supporter of you. However you were wrong with your statement of 0p.

    I still think BoD might be misleading shareholders again with nearly £1 return of capital per share. Just thinking about Biosign loan which Quindell will have as an asset which is worthless. You wonder how many more are out there.

  31. Heehee……..RSI was over 80 yesterday …..a great indicator for overbought……made a few quid this morning on the ‘tech’ drop…..that’s this quarters wages taken care of….no need to be greedy……should maybe have stayed for more as the ramp’oonies are now into ‘dispondancy’ mood…..they’re afraid to top up after banging away at it yesterday thinking £2 on the cards….play the swings…more like play the mood swings with that lot….£1.20 coming soon….but I’m out of the short now…..in case they release a price propping hazy RNS….safety first with that vehicle as the passengers are loonies!


  32. zeronegative

    AKCSL,

    So can you confirm that the Quindell management were briefing the workforce BEFORE the announcement on Sunday that the deal was done? This is price sensitive info and explains the rise last week.

    Can you post the names of the employees at Quindell who passed you this info as the FCA will be very interested in your information. I presume you can provide a phone record should the FCA request it.

  33. Akcsl

    Lets get this right, you have been 100% wrong, then fess up on here complaining someone was 95% right. Keep it up, pitching up to trade against that kind of reasoning is what makes you just ohhhh sooo fucking easy.

    Why bother, why not take up an offer to meet me at some motorway service station and give me your money (in a brown envelope, please) and then just go off and get a life.

    Any life except this, I bet your house is a den of cheer, best cherish it pal, you way you invest you won’t have it for long


  34. zeronegative

    akcsl,

    At least I MADE money out of QPP – unlike you,Steamy, QPPSAG, Robbajob, K3VMC, QPP1000 and all the other long-term rampers.

    Anyway Quindell is history now – small tech company which will be overtaken by the majors who will install boxes or apps in their cars when the cars are made, collecting all the fees themselves. Gonna be fun watching it trade at 30p before slowly dying as investors lose interest – watch the posts on the LSE dry up overtime as people lose interest.

    PS – You think I’m going to apologise to some faceless fuckwit on the internet – DREAM ON!!!!

  35. ZeroCred,

    As usual you’re completely wrong. You say I haven’t made any money on QPP. How do you know that? It’s odd because my bank account is a healthy 24% up after yesterday’s sell. It would have been 30% but AJ Bell had issues. Not to worry, 24% return for merely investing money in a company I knew very well will do me just fine. It’s better than any pay rise I ever got when I worked there :-)

    As for the apology, I knew you’d be too weak a person to admit you were wrong so I’ve been enjoying, in a faceless internet way, your ire at being called out for what you are.

    Enjoy spending whatever you made, I look forward to spending all the money I’ve made from the shorters and the inbreds on this site.

    Oh, and look, I managed to respond without swearing, shame you’re incapable of that too.


  36. Pauly Walnuts

    The following is a comment made by ‘almac’ on the FT Alphaville blog and is so bang on the money I thought I’d share it here. The analysis here is far better than anything I could put together. Kudos to Almac :-

    The graph on p.21 appears to show that NIHL contributed £201m of EBITDA in the 2014 management accounts relative to £278m of income. However, SGH have valued these cases on an NPV basis at £80m and paid £40m for this upfront. Whilst SGH have less appetite to continue the NIHL cases, that really represents some difference in value and potentially accounting practise.

    If you dig further into the SGH presentation it makes a reference on p.29 under the pro forma balance sheet that the “book values of PSD’s identifiable net assets have been written down to a preliminary estimate of fair value”. This table also makes clear that over 50% of the acquisition value is represented by goodwill i.e. the assets are worth a lot less than the cash being paid on a fair value basis.

    However, QPP’s circular and its announcement makes no reference to what the value of the assets being sold is – it gives information on profits, but nothing on the value of the assets either historic (last balance sheet) or any information on potential fair value (as at 31 December 2014). This is in spite of it being explicit in the AIM Rules (Schedule 4 (d)) that an AIM company should notify shareholders of the value of the assets if this differs from the consideration being paid – SGH’s presentation suggests there is a fairly big difference so why can shareholders in QPP not be presented with this information in a fair and honest manner. I am not sure how a QPP shareholder can make a reasonable assessment of this proposal when their own Board will not tell them what the fair value of what their selling was at 31 December, when they don’t have an existing book value of those assets to understand the level of impairment, and there is no definitive PWC report to understand the potential for impairment. In fact all shareholders really have is a promise of cash on one hand and a whole load of unknowns in the other, plus a firm recommendation from the QPP Board to take the cash.


  37. warun boofit

    For Quindle holders hoping for a large rise after capital return look at the Bumi price after the ‘special dividend’ was paid, the special divi was the rump of what the company was worth and the same will happen to QPP if it ever gets that far. Comparing the prospects for Telematics with a bag of coal I would go for the coal but I think the growth prospects for both are not much different . What Telematics can do was interesting a few years ago but nearly every car maker using Bosch engine management systems could do it now without any help from Quindles add on box. Its inevitable that every move we make will eventually be monitored by our insurance company but right now there is resistance to its adoption from consumers, its a niche market with limited prospects, by the time that resistance is overcome it will be too late anyway as Google and Bosch will have steamrollered pipsqueek Telematics into the tarmac.

  38. I wonder if & when Quindell gets the cash and the revised accounts and perhaps the findings of the PwC report are published some enterprising no win no fee legal firm might really bring a class action on behalf of those shareholders who lost money as a result of the misstated accounts.

    Perhaps newly S&G owned QLS could bring a class action to compensate former Quindell shareholders against Quindell PLC with new S&G employee Robert Fielding acting as key witness for the claimants.The accruals S&G could add to their accounts whilst the case was in progress could go a long way to justify the £600m or so paid for QLS!

  39. You should feel very proud today, in my opinion.
    Admirable conviction to this cause, and to sniffing out dreadful behaviour elsewhere in the markets.
    Huge respect for you and the team.


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