By Tom Winnifrith | Friday 5 May 2017
You can always dismiss local elections as local contests which tell you nothing about the result of the next General Election. But when that next General Election is just five weeks away and when there are clear trends evident across the board you can make clear assumptions. Let's start with UKIP whose spokesperson Lisa Duffy said the results were "disappointing" but she would "not call it a disaster". As I write the fruitcakes have lost 98 of the 99 seats they were defending and not gained one. If that is not a disaster what is? UKIP is finished. And its votes have clearly gone Conservative.
With an unlikeable fantastist in Paul Nutter as a leader, no Farage to add excitement and no raison d'etre post Brexit the fruitcakes are toast. Even the most hardened fruitcake must know that there is no point backing the party on June 8. The choice is who do you want to lead the talks with the Evil Empire: Mrs May or Comrade Corbyn and a coalition of chaos committed to all the liberal metropolitan ideas you despise. It is no choice.
Those UKIP votes which are all going Tory means that you can add nearly all the 2015 UKIP vote in seats across the Land to the Tory vote. Tory seats gained from the Lib Dems in the South West might look like marginals but add in decent UKIP votes and they are now safe. Where I live (Bristol East) the 2015 vote was Lab 18,000, Tory 14,000, UKIP 7,000. That seat which has always been Labour will go Tory easily on June 8 even if Lab and Tory votes were unchanged but that is not happening.
Labour has - as I write - lost a net 110 seats across England and won only 245. In Scotland it has lost 49 seats and Tories who have gained 49 are in second place in terms of seats won while the SNP is overall holding its own. Across the land voters are rejecting Labour and, as defeated candidate after defeated candidate is saying, they are rejecting Comrade Corbyn, his views, his style, everything about him. Labour is taking a hammering in Wales too with the Tories again the big winners. Labour voters are quite simply switching to the Tories.
For a long time Labour has served two masters - its voters in London the metropolitan Euro loving elites obsesses with LGBT issue and virtue signalling and the old working class who despise most things the elite stand for. And it is the latter who, in many cases, backed Brexit who are just "crossing the floor". They are not going Lib Dem but straight to the Tories They won't come back on June 8th. In fact it might be worse in the National Election as they think of Corbyn wandering into Number 10 holding Gerry Adams hand.
So back in Bristol East - a working class seat - you will see several thousand Labour voters from 2015 switch to the Tories. As such I'd expect whichever clown the Tories put up to win by a canter. And there will be countless other seats like that in the Midlands, the North and even in Wales. In Scotland the resurgent Tories will gain SNP seats. People actually like what used to be the nasty party. Even in Scotland. Hell's teeth the Tories won a seat in Ravenscraig. Do a google search. Think about it!
The Lib Dems had a dreadful 2013 poll yet have managed to do even worse this time in terms of seats - as I write they are net down in England, Scotland and Wales. Bring back Nick Clegg, all is forgiven they will be saying. He may have been hopeless but Tim Farron is worse. It is not, I suspect that the Lib Dem vote is collapsing compared to 2013 as it was already at rock bottom then. It is simply that Tory remoaners are not switching as ultimately they are Tories above all.
Meanwhile UKIP and Labour voters are switching to the Cons. And that is why Lib Dem hopes of regaining seats lost to the Tories are by and large fantasy. Tim Farron said there was a Lib Dem revival. Even in this post fact era that is now seen as a slam dunk lie. And so with no momentum at all the Lib Dems are on track for their second worst General Election since 1979. At least this time there is no chance of their leader being on trial for trying to have his gay lover murdered. Look on the bright side Mr Farron.
So the key takeaways from these results are the obliteration of UKIP. That party is over. And also the mass desertion of Labour by working class voters. And the fact that nearly all those votes will in the Brexit dominated poll on June 8 go to the Tories while tribal Tory support is holding up very well indeed. And that points to Mrs May winning the biggest majority of any party since 1935. And to Labour joining the Lib Dems in the wilderness.
That is all good for shares and Sterling and ahead of the Brexit talks, good for Britain.
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