Hello, Share Scoopers. I still believe that the bigger oil companies are undervalued, given the price of Brent Crude. Yes, recently the oil price has fallen and attempts to revitalise have been thwarted by the general malaise. But that could be a buying opportunity for some oilers...

Back in March I mused about the Prudential (PRU) concluding that it was wise to snaffle 'a few (shares) now and at each new Pound below the current share price (£15 something a share, £14 something a share) is a suitable compromise between opportunity and the short-term perception vagaries towards the insurance space'.  Well in the five months or so since then the shares have undertaken a bit of a 'Grand Old Duke of York' moment and gone up the share price hill...and back down again.  Such is the insurance space...and the ups and downs of financial markets.  

Technical Analyst ( I know, groan) Tim Ord says he studies long-term market cycles, and there are 8 and 16-year cycles within precious metals. These cycles picked up the 2000 low and the 1987 low. Currently, both cycles are headed up and show a possible top around 2022-2023. That will likely be the next major point where gold consolidates. The trend is definitely upwards, and we will most likely test and possibly break all-time highs. He expects a powerful rally over a one to two-year time frame.

I start with Burford (BUR) and the questions it may or may not choose to ansswer from this weekend plus a look at its spinning and smearing via the PR cocksuckers at the Sunday Times. Then, as a financial journalist who has been warning about Neil Woodford since 2015 and explicitly hoisting red flag after red flag, I assiost Mr Luzio with an analysis of the flaws of the deadwood press and the low grade waste of space press release regurgitators such as him who staff it.

It never ceases to amaze me how willing many private investors are to forget past failures and accept that a complete change of direction in a business is suddenly going to bring success.

Drunken Sailor has made another point about AIM-listed Burford (BUR) in the comments boards – this time in response to my story about the recently announced corporate governance changes and listing of Burford which Muddy Waters attacked and Burford said there was nothing wrong. Except it now seems to think there was. Apart from the jibe of panic, Drunken Sailor seems to be wondering about insider trading. Let’s take a look at the facts.

Is there anything better than sitting back and reading a well-written article on a lazy Sunday? Every week ShareProphets features some long form journalism that you'll find of interest. Grab your cuppa and enjoy these five articles. 
 

I notice that shares in First Derivatives (FDP) have been on the slide since the sad and untimely death of its CEO and founder Brian Conlon on 28^th July. My sympathies go to his family and all his many friends. I see that Tom Winnifrith reckons that shares in First Derivatives represent something of a binary bet; either the whole company is acquired by an entity that buys out the 24% held now by Conlon’s estate, or the shares tank when new management come in and start looking at what First Derivatives really is…

The story that I have been returning to this week is this one, about the US IPO of coworking company, We Work. It is completely bonkers.

I start with the case of a banker Andrew Tinney who "acted without integrity" but thinks he has done nothing wrong. Discuss. Then ex banker Sajid Javid who wants to ramp up the housing asset bubble by switching stamp duty from buyer to seller. Why do you think he is oing that? Finally to Neil Woodford's Income Focus Fund and a discussion of why it should be gated now but when it will actually be gated.

The bad news keeps on rolling for Neil Woodford. Yesterday is was OsloBors-listed Thin Film (THIN). The day before it also came from Norway as Idex released results.  AIM-listed Verseon has been continuing its collapse but hasn’t ‘fessed up to the market why (er…lack of cash?) and AIM-listed Burford has been biffed and bashed from all angles. It never rains when it pours.

Burford (BUR) does not have to prove it is innocent of the Muddy Waters allegations but the longer it opts NOT to give full disclosure the more suspicions will grow. And perhaps the Oxymorons at AIM Regulation or my friends at the FRC, who I have asked to look at the accounts, may force its hand. In that vein I have written to the Nomad, Jonny Allison at Macquarie asking him to force Burford to come clean. I have cc’d in the Oxymorons and the FRC. The letter is below

An update on my second tip of the year for 2019…

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) is pleased to announce an exclusive manufacturing, supply and distribution agreement for its SlimBiome weight management technology in Australia and New Zealand…

I have always believed that Purplebricks (PURP) stiffs both staff and customers and that is why it will eventually ru out of cash so stiffing shareholders too. This video below validates my thesis with a former employee giving hard numbers on that stiffing. Enjoy.

From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2018 and thus far in 2019 (by net short position %, those in bold not on the list at the start of 2019) – and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...

An update on my first tip of the year for 2019…

Hello, Share Crunchers. In the present weakened market, our instincts are to stop trading. We’re reluctant to sell shares because we strongly suspect that the market will soar a few seconds afterwards. While we avoid buying in case things get worse. But if we don’t trade we lose opportunities of making more money. So what's the answer?...

Previously writing on self-styled “leading smart homes solutions provider” LightwaveRF (LWRF), in June I noted still there looks clear cash risk and I continue to avoid. Now “Placing and Subscription”…

KEFI Minerals (KEFI) “is pleased to announce a restructuring of its working capital convertible loan facility… in order to provide greater flexibility to the company by removing the existing security charges over assets and extending the loan maturity dates”…