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Winnifrith Vindicated yet again, Petropavlovsk – The fat Lady to sing on Monday

By Tom Winnifrith | Thursday 14 July 2022


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


Petropavlovsk (POG) was obviously aware that I was driving across France on Tuesday and distracted by the most stressful of episodes, as it took the chance to suspend its shares and say that it would appoint administrators while I was distracted. Today it said that the hearing in the Courts to settle the administration is scheduled for Monday. As the fat lady warms up there are three key takeaways from someone who predicted this on March 4 HERE.

 

  1. If Bonds in a company are trading at as little as 13 cents in the dollar and the company still has a material market cap and its shares are being bid higher ( by morons), equity markets are invariably wrong and bond markets right. If bonds trade at anything under 40 cents in the dollar shares are invariably worth 0p and are a slam dunk short.

  2. When a company warns that it is in a position which may lead to “little or no value” being realised for shareholders that is City speak for “we are a zero”. As Petropavlovsk used that phrase it was still being valued at tens of millions of pounds.

  3. I do not say a company is likely to go bust lightly as it is potentially libellous. For the same reason I only rarely accuse a company of fraud. So, if I do make such a statement, you might consider that I might be right and, as it happens, almost invariably am. Those morons who delighted in buying Petropavlovsk because “TW is always wrong” might consider sending an apology for their abuse and trolling, from their social housing to myself, as I sit in the pool at the Greek eco mansion, and not being such pricks next time around.
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