In today's bearcast I look at the idea of a bear market on AIM, Cenkos (CNKS) as its CEO walks (again), Versarien (VRS), Plutus Powergen (PPG), First Derivatives(FDP), Mysquar (FRAUD), Mayan (MYN) and Wolfe Minerals (WLFE). Due to a bit of a mix-up there are a newly available handful of tickets to next week's wine, canapes, Falanx (FLX) and Premaitha (NIPT) evening in London with me ripping Dominic Frisby apart on blockchain and bitcoin as a bonus. To grab your seat for 16 October book HERE

I gather that the new interim CEO Charlie Wood may not survive the Mayan (MYN) GM vote on Thursday. It looks tight and anyone reading the incendiary note by Zac Phillips earlier today is unlikely to be shouting Je Suis Charlie. Now Richard Jennings of Align Research has weighed in with a no holds barred letter to shareholders calling on them to oust Wood. As they say...more to follow but the Jennings letter is below:

This morning I have been berated on twitter by a self proclaimed “AIM expert” who reckons that MySquar (MYSQ) is the next big thing. I can only assume he is a stale bull desperate to get out as this fraud is unravelling apace. Wind back to last Friday at 4.30 PM, no-one is watching O Clock, when the company served up a trading statement.

Four days ago the CEO walked with immediate effect and without explanation. Today there is a pathetic statement from Mayan Energy (MYN) not explaining why the CEO was resigning but stating that everything is up for review: management, assets, operations. Until that is done capex is on hold. The only thing we are not told is how much cash is left. I suspect that is because the answer is SFA. On the case is the City's No 1 oil analyst Zac Phillips of SP Angel. Zac the knife pulls no punches and writes:

The world has turned upside down. Today's trading update from Greggs (GRG) contains the observation that: 'As testament to the increased breadth of our product range, we were recognised at PETA's 2018 Vegan Food Awards and were awarded the 'Best Vegan Sandwich' for our Mexican Bean Wrap'. I know the steak bake fraternity must be revolving in their early graves but I kind of see this as the high point of the turnaround plan at the core of the Greggs story for the last (just under) six years.

In a weekend bearcast I flagged up that the real issue with First Derivatives (FDP) is that its core business is a rotten generator of cash. And that – as well as the fraudulent IPO and dodgy related party deals is why the shares ( off again this morning to £28.35) remain massively overvalued.  So what do you do if you are set to report dire free cashflows? Natch turn to the Sam Antar playbook – meet 1010 Data   

Statistics released for the month of September by the London Stock Exchange show that AIM is still contracting. When I wrote about this last month, AIM was already at its lowest ebb since 2004 and the latest numbers suggest that the decline is still ongoing.

Neill Ricketts, CEO of Versarien (VRS), the graphene company which is currently the number one pin-up stock on AIM, can be forgiven for thinking that he can walk on water.

Vodafone (VOD) has had a very weak year so far and the share price has been dropping steadily, but I believe that it can still turn things around longer term.

AIM-listed IoT investment company Tern (TERN) has seen its shares dropping again, despite the calls to Tom Winnifrith saying how shorts are being called in. That might put an upward pressure on the stock, but there is plenty down pressure too – and that includes today’s unaudited and abridged accounts for FY17 from principal investee Device Authority.

Hello, Share Spinners. With the shops already beginning to stock up Christmassy things (shame!), businesses significantly affected by the Yule spirit will soon begin to bounce up. Or not fall as quickly as they might have done, according to their own unique circumstances. One such company is Royal Mail (RMG).

While readers reflect upon the various related party transactions undertaken by First Derivatives (FDP) over the years, see HERE and HERE, and in anticipation of  further revelations to come do the smart thing and SELL, it seems an opportune moment to consider more recent “contract wins”.

The somewhat obscure headline references are explained in the podcast suffice to say Mr Burns is a top guy and no Darren Winters as implied yesterday. At a company level I look at Accesso Technology (ASCO), Diurnal Group (DNL), First Derivatives (FDP), SalvarX (SALV), Sosandar (SOS) and Akers Bioscionces (AKR) and a most extraordinary statement from it today.

AIM-listed Minoan (MIN) has updated the market on its Greek resort in Crete, Cavo Sidero, on the day of its general meeting at which it hopes to gain approval for the disposal of its travel and leisure division. There are some indications of some good news to come, but this morning’s statement reads pretty defensively as those shareholders turning up to the GM prepare to cast their votes.

From military exercises to trade wars, the fury is intensifying. At the same time, global liquidity is compressing while rates are rising. Growing uncertainty, contracting liquidity & rising cost of capital will continue to place non-US assets (and in particular EMs) in the crosshairs.

The related party deal exposed HERE on Saturday that helped First Derivatives (FDP) to list via crooked broker JM Finn should have made any sane investor run for the hills. But for insane investors still on board there are more whiffy deals to examine. So here is number two...

Much of the background to this can be found in my articles here.  As a quick recap: Chris Foster was Tim Baldwin’s sidekick at TXO.  One of the things they wasted shareholders money on (apart from obscene directors’ fees) was backing Mad Malc Bendall’s (vision from God showing him lakes of oil under Tasmania) utter farce as he tried to keep hold of his licence, which he claimed was worth $3 billion.  When TXO’s Nomad (Northland) finally resigned, there was another Nomad prepared to take the company on and save the AIM listing, but that was conditional on Tim and Chris resigning.   They refused to resign and the rest is history, along with any hope their trapped shareholders had of seeing any of their money ever again.

Half-year results from Rose Petroleum (ROSE) saw it concluding “the board is looking ahead with confidence and is excited about the group moving from being an oil explorer to an oil producer in the next quarter”. The shares responded higher, but at still little more than a £5 million market cap we see much more excitement to come…

The City's No 1 oil analyst Zac Phillips has today published a note on Union Jack Oil (UJO) setting out exactly why he is so bullish. Over to the great man...

Catenae Innovation (CTEA) has had an update of sorts. We have also spoken to the company. It is coming together now, we believe.